After two full days of competition in the can - Saturday the 27th and Sunday 28th - it was largely expected the surfing at Teahupoo would go on hold for a few days. Reason being, the curveball cut-off low was forecast to spin winds around the compass as it passed in close proximity south of Tahiti.

Two things happened to allow a half-day of very exciting competition today.

As the low deepened yesterday a fetch developed off its northwest flank sent a building west-southwest swell towards Tahiti, which arrived before the westerly wind change. That window of good conditions allowed them to get through the 8 heats of men’s Round 3.

This leaves organisers with 21 heats and an expected day-and-a-half of competition to go - the exact time is flexible as heat lengths can change.

Robbo salutes the rising swell (ISA/Jiminez)

From today the weather and surf in Tahiti will be directly influenced by the passing low. The wind will cycle through west to southwest to south and finally to southeast. Following it - indeed created by it - will be the swell.

At its peak during Tuesday and Wednesday (local time, a day behind Australia) the swell at Teahupoo will reach 10-12 feet from the south, albeit with stiff southern quadrant winds. That takes all surfing off the table for Tuesday 30th and Wednesday 31st, with surf and weather easing, though still raw, on Thursday 1st.

For what it’s worth, we’ll keep track of the winds leading into Thursday as, though they won’t be trade, there’s an outside possibility local factors may allow them to ease enough to call competition on. The swell will be around 8 feet and almost straight south.

The cut-off low that's passed through Tahiti's near-shore swell window and provides three days of short-range south swell. Note that the ideal direction and distance is to the immediate southeast of New Zealand.

Better conditions are assured on Friday 2nd, with winds settling into southeast trade. However that will also shut off the swell engine, with an easing - read: inconsistent - pure south swell on the reef with size easing around 4-5 feet. There's a very high likelihood this day will be utilised one way or another, either to finish on (if Thursday delivers) or set things up for a Final's Day.

For those unaware, south swells, particularly weak ones, will peel and pinch, as opposed to the hollow, wrapping west bowls for which Teahupoo is famous. It won’t be ideal yet with three days left it will be a consideration.

Saturday 3rd is the second-last day of the waiting period and the morning will be the bottom of the swell cycle - great winds, minimal swell. The forerunners to a new, marginally better, south-southwest swell from a weak low east of New Zealand will make landfall through the afternoon. It may be hard to discern, with sets remaining 3 feet, yet the period will slightly stretch out and direction will come around a few degrees.

That will be more noticeable on Sunday 4th, the last day of the waiting period, if it’s needed, with a kick towards 4 feet. Also, a cycle of stronger trades will begin on Sunday, however the morning should be fine with some surface texture later in the day