Feast Or Famine
Feast Or Famine
On Thursday the 29th August, the third-last day of a dire winter season, Victoria's Surf Coast was struck by the best swell in three months.
Surfers awoke to six foot waves on the reefs, brushed clean by a stiff nor-wester. The swell dropped a touch on Friday but then a fresh swell hit for the weekend, with Saturday back around eight feet, Sunday a touch bigger, and Monday bigger again. Winds were offshore the whole time.
Almost a month later, the waves have barely stopped on the Surf Coast, with each week seeing another well-aimed pulse of swell strike the Surf Coast. Meanwhile, numbers in the water have slowly dwindled as, after weeks of feasting, shoulders and backs slowed down from all the paddling, or quivers gave way from heavy use.
8:24am, Sunday September 1st - Double-overhead waves, light offshore wind, and a rainbow too, as the universe piles on the trimmings (Romy Becker-Roche)
Feast or famine. That’s the way things generally go on the Surf Coast. It’s either all guns a-blazing on the reefs, pumping for days on end, sometimes weeks on end, or it’s slow and even the longest range forecast is dire.
It’s a scenario that’s peculiar to this stretch of coast, and it has everything to do with the way it’s oriented away from the prevailing south-west swells
Down south, the Shipwreck Coast is exposed to every movement in the Southern Ocean, yet for swells to reach the Surf Coast they first have to round Cape Otway, refracting up through Bass Strait, before making their way onto the sloped-out shelves that scatter the Surf Coast.
It’s both a blessing and a curse, as the Surf Coast can be offshore while the rest of the state is being pummeled by cold fronts, but it also reduces the incoming size and consistency - factors that increase the more the swell direction moves to the west.
Approaching from an angle close to pure south-west, lines of swell appear out of the Southern Ocean and strike the Surf Coast reefs with a minimum of interference (Tim Blake)
For the Surf Coast to really fire, swell-generating storms need to either approach from the south-west of Tasmania, removing the shadowing effects of Cape Otway, but no further east as to then be blocked completely by Tasmania and King Island.
This limits it to a mere 45° of active swell window, and even with this, swells approaching from the true south-west travel parallel to the coast, meaning they still have to refract into the reefs, losing some size as they do.
Of course, large swells can still arrive from outside of this prime swell window but they are much less common and the storm has to be quite significant. There’s also the aforementioned loss of consistency.
Compare this to, say, the East Coast where most regions are open to at least 135° of active swell window while being able to turn smaller, less significant swells into high quality surf.
It’s this limited window that leads to the feast or famine setup, with the storm track more times than not being aimed away from the perfect slot. The winter just gone was testament to this and only saw a handful of big, clean, days on the Surf Coast reefs, leaving the locals famished.
Johanna Brebner forgets the weather talk, focussing instead on the long wall ahead (Milo Inglis/needessentials)
Luckily for SC surfers, when the slot lines up it can remain there for weeks at a time - as we’ve just seen.
Where and for how long the slot lines up is dictated by movements in the upper atmosphere. The Long Wave Trough - which we’ve spoken about in the past - is a filtered down representation of upper level activity and it can be used to get a broad idea on where storm activity will be focussed.
For Victoria’s Surf Coast, the prime locations for the LWT is just east of the region, at the entrance to the Tasman Sea, with this allowing storms to project up and across Tasmania while generating large swells with a more southerly angle. It also allows winds to maintain that degree of offshore angle, tipped north-west by the local topography.
While the LWT constantly moves and changes its shape while rotating around the world, it can stall or move extremely slowly, and when it lines up with the Surf Coast its feast time for local surfers. A constant stream of fronts will fire up the slot, producing days or weeks of excellent surf, highlighted by larger pulses.
Exactly why the LWT stalled just east of Victoria is connected to two remote phenomena, a recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, and also movements of the MJO, however explaining the connection is beyond the bounds of this article.
Suffice to say Surf Coast surfers were beneficiaries of distant events. The waves they rode came from afar - generated by storms in the Southern Ocean - but the storms were connected to developments even further afield.
The below Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly charts for September show how unique this run of surf has been. A deep low pressure anomaly is evident south-east of Tasmania, with stronger than normal westerly winds being the end result.
Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly for September. With storms following the white slot, the positioning was perfect for the Surf Coast (NOAA)
After the initial bout of swell back in late-August, the swell has hardly dropped below three feet, and it’s been groomed by persistent offshore winds. Local surfers will have their own opinions on which was the premier day or swell, however it’d be hard to beat last Friday which saw eight to ten feet of long period groundswell fill in across the Surf Coast reefs. Monday and Tuesday brought slightly smaller yet even more perfect versions of the same.
Wednesday 25th, however, saw a southerly change and heavy rain. For those who’ve still got something left in the tank, there’ll be a windier, low-quality swell mid-next week, but the truth is that the feast is over. The Long Wave Trough is moving east, taking with it those perfectly-aimed storms.
Here’s hoping the coming famine doesn’t last too long.
Comments
Yes Craig if you can time your surf towards the end of this period it is remarkably free of people let alone crowds. 10 people max in the water and it is pumping happy days.
Man, I've had a bit of a green eye this month, particularly hearing about the lack of crowds last week...........that being said, I'll take 135+ degrees of a swell window to 45 as a place to live and be an ocean goer. Subtropics goes into my 'pro' list as well.
Thanks for the write up Craig. Never disappoint.
Yep. Depending where you live on the east coast it's better than 135 degrees as well. Say nothing of the weather, wave variety and outright beauty of the east coast as well!
The idea of a surf trip that involves a 4/3, hood and booties does not get me hard.
Love the article.. great to have the analysis as our surfing life is so tied to the weather ..Sorry Confused a little .. l always thought victoria was much more consistent than nsw... Qld.. if you go for a drive that is.. phillip island..woolami.. joanna beach all the way to portland always swell.. usually too much a lot off the time.. even 13 th is not flat very often.. where long spells off 1 to2 ft up north or even flat can be the norm.. are you just talking about the surf coast only when it comes to the swell window l thought due to the swell being generated in the south there were more consistent storms..
Yes I'm just talking about the Surf Coast and namely the marquee reefs.
If you're in Melbourne and can access both sides then you can surf all year round.
All coasts are roughly the same distance.
Melbs is like a keystone. It's a damn shame the heads aren't wider........
If you drive hours maybe. PI and Portland yes but I found wave quality sub par compared to the east coast. The waves are fatter down that way, definately more powerful though. I remember surfing a 4ft day west of Otway on a rock shelf point and it felt HEAVY for the size.
Living in Melbourne city proper the last 2 years I think the consistency (and qaulity) of swell within a 2 hour drive of the CBD is unmatched anywhere. Can't remember many weekends since moving here that I haven't been able to find an uncrowded head high or bigger wave somewhere on one of the 3 coasts.
Compare that with living somewhere like Brisbane (which I did the 3 years previously) and you are faced with a similar drive for IMO way bleaker options for the average punter.
I'm not a city slicker, however I imagine Sydney would be first and daylight second for consistency and quality within 2 hours drive of CBD?
I’ve never set foot in Sydney so ignorance is bliss.
But all I seem to read it that it’s crowded and the sand sucks.
Sydney is surf.
Big wave bombies, small waves, reefs, points, slabs.
2hours north and south have some of the best reef set ups in Australia.
Swell from right around the eastern half of the compass and can get waves all year round.
Boardies in summer and a 3/2 in winter.
I don’t disagree that the peak level of Sydney far out shines Melbourne, but if you picked a random Saturday in the year I think you have better odds getting fun waves within 2 hours of Melbourne than Sydney.
Which is really all the average surfer who works during the week is after.
Are you sure you are remembering this correctly OS?
Seems to have been a very strong consensus that the last few years of La Niña have been generally diabolical with long stretches off shitty winds and no swell.
Maybe some recency bias?
Maybe recency bias? But i’ve only lived here during these “bad years” and there’s been waves all over the coast pretty bloody consistently.
If you lived on the SC I get the frustration but if I lived in a comparable Sydney suburb (maybe Newtown?) I genuinely reckon my surfing experience would be far worse than it is living in Brunswick.
Maybe I’m just weird/have twisted standards for fun waves.
Sorry freeride, I’m in agreeance with OS. If you have the flexibility to go any of the coasts you can consistently find a decent wave even in the last few years week to week. To find a great rare proper pumping day is harder to come by not because of swell or wind combo but lack of quality setups in varying conditions. Also, you gotta think about scale of viccos surfable coastline isn't that big for example when a big swell like on monday comes through theres only a handful of proper A grade waves to surf whereas in nsw if a nice SE-ENE swell comes up there's potentials 1000s of A+ setups up and down the east coast on any given day. Viccos best size to open up alot of good spots would be a day the beaches are just holding 6ft and its still 3ft on the surfcoast reefs and on a day like that there could be 50 A grade waves but nothing would still rival some of the better days in NSW.
The main cohort of people complaining the past few years are those that Winki is their local and the frustration knowing that you are living in front of a place that can get pretty good and consistently big which can be fun if thats what you like about winki and the fact it helps spread out the crowds. But in all honesty Winki can even be just as good at that 3ft size rippable and quality wise so if you spend your surfing life waiting for those bigger days that's a pretty boring surfing existence and why a lot of people get jaded with this coastline and why it'd be better to pack your 7,0 step up and live elsewhere.
Another thing to consider in vicco is that it’s a lot easier to figure out the conditions for certain waves and to check/know about all the spots whereas up around Sydney or other zones north or south it takes a lot more knowledge getting to find those conditions/windows and spots so that can sometimes lead to the apparent better surfing experience in vicco. I always say to people about my last trip down to Tassie, if I didn’t know the spots or how to read the charts I could’ve easily had a shocking surf experience and found no waves at all, even though I had back to back pumping swells on all coasts. Where as it’d be so hard not to find a half decent wave half the time in vicco.
Also, on Saturday when the waves were decent I came across someone I know from a few of my strikes to a particular favorite reef in another state and he was picking my brain about where he should go for the swell. I know he was after something super high quality given how good his local can get but honestly even though there was swell and these forecasts probably gave it a 8/10 and most vicco surfers were frothing it was honestly pretty hard to recommend somewhere that good for him. On this day we had a fun surf on a 2ft longish pointbreak and then came in for lunch and were happy to call it a day but it was nothing better than a standard day at crescent head. Where as if you see a forey with a variety of winds and a mix of 2-5ft Youd be frothing to go chase some waves all day and you’ll be delighted with heaps of variety, friendly faces, uncrowded setups and if you get in on some local knowledge you might get some truly pumping waves.
Finally, the intermediate regular footed surfer that lacks the ability to read charts which accounts for the majority of surfing population then vicco is honestly your dream state. Less crowds than Queensland, more compact than NSW, easier to find waves than tassie, less sharks than south aus, higher quality setups for the intermediate surfer than WA.
I still don’t get it. You’ve heard of the central coast, national parks south of Sydney, Shellharbour - Gerroa region?
I'm from Vic, but lived in Sydney for 2 years. Smallish sample size and maybe it was an average 2 years for waves (04/05). I had a Monday to Friday job, lived in the eastern suburbs, close the the beach and pre-kids so surfed a lot of dawnies (mainly Maroubra) and most weekends. Did plenty of weekends and long weekends away up and down the coast and have decades (post driver licence) of many many road trips to the North and South coast of NSW under the belt, covering the entire coast including several quick impromptu dashes from Vic for a swell. Cyclone Winston, wow.
From my experience living in Melbourne as a surfer is not inferior to living in Sydney, certainly not grossly inferior as many would assume. What do you miss out on in Melbs? (1) Dawnies. You miss easy pre-work dawnies where you can get up 5-10 minutes before dawn, have your sesh and be at work by 8.30 or 9 or whenever standard starting time is. If you live in Melbs you need to get up at around 4.30 to 5.00 for the dawnie depending on the time of year, where you live and where you're surfing, and if you go for the dawnie you will probably be late for work if you need to drive back to Melb. Makes it tough. Post Covid flexibility (working from home etc) makes it much, much easier (unfortunately). Dawnies are like pizza, it is hard to have a bad one but in 2 years in Sydney I don't think I had one A-Grade dawnie surf (where the waves are quality and I got a fair share), and maybe 5 B grade if lucky. You can paddle out in pitch black and within 10 minutes its super crowded, they just stream off the beach in the blackness like Dunkirk. Typcial surf was a handful of waves with 1 closeout turn, 2 if you're lucky. I treated it as exercise and a good start the day. Probably a bit like the wave pool experience, only less orderly crowd. (2) Same for the post work surf. Can be done from Melb if your work allows and you have the commitment. Gets dark too early outside of summer and in summer the sea breezes can rule this out a lot of the time, and hard to do the quick dash if there's an unexpected late afternoon glass off. (3) A quick weekend sesh where you can duck out for a surf and only take 2 hours out of your day. Can't do that in Melbourne. Most weekends I got out of Sydney for a surf or two, and often up or down the coast for the whole weekend. When living in Sydney did a ton of driving and exploring within 4-5 hours of Sydney and scored some epic waves. BUT, if you're driving 1-1.5 hours from Melb or Sydney on a weekend, in my view you are a much better chance on any given Saturday or Sunday to get that better balance of quality waves/lower crowds in Vicco (PI or beyond, MP or SC) than an equivalent drive from Sydney (as mentioned Central coast, National Parks, Illawarra etc). Last week/this week swell on the surf coast, also WOW.
So all in all, living in Melb, if you want to be a surfer, stay surf fit, and maintain or improve your surfing, requires more commitment, more time, more sacrifice of other things, but the wave/crowd mix on any given day within that reasonable driving distance is not inferior in my opinion. Sure, when the east coast pumps it really PUMPS and there are so many options and variety, more than Vic for sure but I think the above named Vic coast lines deliver decent waves more consistently. Only an opinion.
"You can paddle out in pitch black and within 10 minutes its super crowded, they just stream off the beach in the blackness like Dunkirk. Typcial surf was a handful of waves with 1 closeout turn, 2 if you're lucky."
Sounds like you were at Cronulla Ringo!!! 20 years ago the dawnie was great - now a shit show, weekends a write off, unless you are lucky.
You do make some very good points though - when living in Melbourne it is a 2 hour exercise from the time you get up to the time you hit the water - so a quickie before or after work is tough.
I found it far more regular to find a good quality, relatively uncrowded wave in Vic, with the options east and west, it is just a harder journey and exercise - as Sydney you are right on it and can pick the eyes out of it. Of course if you live closer to the Vic east coast waves in particular - the story would be different.. Both have their merits and negatives. I guess what each individual is looking for out of surfing is what might dictate which location is better. Personally - I hate driving, and the cold water f#'s me quickly - so Sydney for me has the edge over Melbourne.
Craig - great article. This sort of stuff, and the honest commentary from the community, is gold.
Dude! If they're happy with vicco, let them be! After COVID the east coast has been inundated with them!
God bless all the surfers that are happy in Victoria I say!
Cheers Craig.
I always looked at that surf coast stretch and wondered how they could have access to the southern ocean and yet it's tiny/flat so often.
Lots of drives to the numbers beach or johana....
Living in Melb, i am guessing you have to drive at least 1.5 before you hit the first surfable spot.
But in Sydney could have waves on your doorstep extending in each direction for as long as you feel like driving.
I dont like in either btw.
Assuming you live in a central/coastal suburb otherwise you’re still spending a lot of time in the car.
I remember getting to Point Leo in just over an hour from my north-east suburbs home. Depends where you live. If you're in the outer west, you could be in the water at Bells in an hour.
Didn't find a lot of consistency around Leo - and quality pretty rare (acknowledge the set ups are there on the right day) - but that was pre-forecast days so I guess if you pick the eyes out of it - then Leo is an option pretty close to a lot of Melbourne. Was about 40 mins from where I lived. PI was a much better bet - particularly with options in a variety of winds.
SE Suburbs Melbourne clearly isn't as nice as living next to the coast, but definitely opens up a lot of options - 50 minutes to the Mornington Peninsula, 1hr to the Island / Kilcunda, 1.5hr to Bells / Winki, 2hrs to the gates at the Prom etc. A lot of time in the car chasing waves.
57 session year to date - it's been a good year, so far, for a surfer living in the burbs.
Posted this elsewhere but how can you have any difference in swell direction as we generally shit in a 12+ second period swell that will get steered to SW by the Bass Strait shelf.
West swell gets steered SW. South swell gets steered SW.
How often does Pt. Nepean buoy leave the 200-210 mark. Disregarding tidal impact.
Lived on the SC for 10 years after learning to surf there as a kid and spent much of my life lamenting Tasmania and the narrow Bass Strait swell window. Now having lived in Margs for 10 years I find myself similarly lamenting Margs' narrow swell window. The one-in-a-blue-moon favourably-positioned cyclone notwithstanding, it rarely receives swell outside of 15-20 degrees either side of SW despite 180 degree access to the Indian Ocean. I think it goes to show just how optimally the SC reefs are aligned with the predominant swell direction produced by the southern ocean storm track. The SC really is a wonder of the surfing world.
Agree. I’m the opposite, 10 years in vic after 15 years surfing in WA as a bloke that loves a speedy high line I much prefer SC over margs. Plenty of heavy margs-style waves east and far west coasts of vic too, just generally doesn’t get the barrels but I’m not too fussed with that these days
Tomdo and geek genuine question: how do you rate the SC better than SW WA? That really perplexes me, I’d love to hear your reasons.
It’s 50kms of the most consistent and swell rich zone on earth.
I just prefer flawless right hand point breaks that stretch for 100s of metres over the slabby, more intense reefs of margs. The way winki/bells essentially breaks the same from 2ft to 10ft+ and how that coastline is offshore in the biggest cold fronts is also pretty magic. Vicco has plenty of beachies that rival margs area too
Ditto experience geek, drives to the snow is cherry on top. Formative years were metro to Kalbarri to Margs & south coast WA.
PS - if you haven’t realised, I love a bit of Aussie surf zone comparison chat
If you had a van, some money for fuel and a desire to surf. Is there a better country?
After travelling around I sometimes play the game, 'where would I go to surf great waves all year'? There's lots of options.
That said, these days I'm lazy. Id rather be in Mexico or somewhere else in central America where you know it's going to be offshore and 2-20ft nearly every morning at the beach.
Depends what you’re into I guess?
This chat seems to have delved into, ‘where is the easiest place to score an intermediate wave for weekend warriors’. (No disrespect intended).
For sheer quality and consistency I find it hard to go past NNSW, South Coast NSW, Eyre P and Margs. You could probably throw west Vic in there too.
Love to hear other’s thoughts. Where is best?
These swells were dominated by winds that were 50-100km+ for weeks on the SC. There were many missed waves and dysfunctional lineups. As is often the case, it made for a better photo than practice. But don't take my word for it; look at the BOM observations.
What's omitted is often more telling than anything else.
Tbh, the winds weren't that bad in practice. Even the windiest days a few weeks back were OK once you're in the water. If you've got a board with a bit of extra swing weight in the nose, you're good to go.
This is based on surfing all the last swells here at the Bells/Winki area.
The trickiest part in the last swell was the sweep - properly vicious current the whole time!
Probably need half decent shoulders too... can confirm mine are cactus!
The good thing about the SC is the number of quality waves for all levels of ability given a 4ft or 6ft day of swell with predominately NW winds, ranging from A grade reef/point breaks to entry level points. Plenty of beach break options too. Even though it doesn't pick up as much swell as other Vic coasts it's not tiny or flat that often. The big problem is wind with any East in it. ie Those recent La Nina years.
Good healthy discussion crew. Enjoying it.
Had so many incredible surf sessions this year now I have a super flexible work arrangement and will surf the Prom to Lorne chasing uncrowded and novelty surf sessions on all swells, winds and tides.
Will always choose an uncrowded B or C grade wave over a crowded A grade.
Vicco is full of these and certain tides/ swells can turn a C grade wave into an A grade and after 50 years of surfing I know where they all are and when they will turn on.
Had so many surfs by myself or a maximum of 6 in the water this past winter/ spring and the reefs I surf have been so lined up and perfect.
Last Sunday to Tuesday was epic at my C grade reef by myself.
Sounds epic!
Agree Rock - and jealous.
You gotta work it hard to be a Vicco Man.
You gonna take the lead and make the others follow (to Winki)!
You got to keep in shape to be a Vicco Man.
And when you've got a thirst for it you got to crack a move to NSW.
Hey Craig - I'd be really interested in a similar article on Tassie - particularly the East coast.
Great analysis Craig. Love all these comments too.
One plus is the surf coast must be one of the most predictable coastlines in Australia - if you can see the LWT setting up east of Victoria, you know you could have multiple days if not weeks of solid swells with offshore winds.
For people with real flexibility who chase seasonal setups to camp out for multiple weeks, late winter and early spring always seems to be a good time for the surf coast, much like February March is reliable on the Queensland points and the handful of similarly orientated NNSW ones.
I tend to agree with much of the above, Victoria ex Melbourne is an excellent place for strike missions, because you can always guarantee southern ocean power somewhere, and you can also guarantee wave shape if you’re chasing reefs - similarly, sand on the beaches is also more predictable and structured because of offshore and onshore reef setups.
So if you’re prepared to drive, you are really only waiting on the wind to be right.