East Coast Low On Target For New South Wales
The opening week of winter is set to kick off with a bang in New South Wales, thanks to a deepening trough along the East Coast that's expected to develop an East Coast Low (ECL).
East Coast Lows are powerful low pressure systems that develop rapidly in the Tasman Sea close to the East Coast, usually associated with a deepening surface trough and a cold pool of air in the upper levels of the atmosphere. These weather systems drive gale force onshore winds, heavy rain and large swells across broad areas of the coastal region.
The last few years have been somewhat sporadic on the ECL front. However, five ECLs occurred during June 2007, the first of which memorably grounded the 76,000 tonne bulk ore carrier Pasha Bulker on Newcastle Beach.
Current expectations are that we'll see the trough deepening on Sunday with the ECL starting to develop sometime around Monday and persisting into Tuesday. At this stage many parts of the southern NSW coast are on target to see gale force onshore winds and very large storm swells in excess of 10-12ft.
However, there will be a point somewhere along the NSW coast at which these onshore winds will rotate around the axis of the low, swinging offshore in direction. Finding this axis point (and aiming north of it) will be the key to scoring the best waves from this event.
Right now, the various computer models have a wide range of possible locations of this axis - anywhere between the South Coast and the Mid North Coast - so let's wait a few more days before pinning down specifics.
In any case, it's also quite likely that we'll see a range of novelty surf locations come to life closer to Sydney during this time frame, such as sheltered points and inner harbour haunts that may well produce some rare quirky waves.
To look at the swell model forecasts for this event, click here. Otherwise, check out our detailed forecast notes here where Craig will provide the latest information about this swell event. //BEN MATSON
Comments
Fortunately I'll be north of the axis of the low!!! :)
Just need EC to come to fruition as GFS has the low hugging the coast which won't allow any east of south swell to greet the offshore winds we'll receive up here.
Ben, what's your thoughts on the long term winter forecast? This pattern of troughiness has been fairly regular/frequent throughout the latter part of Autumn, so let's hope it continues well into Winter.
The current 512km composite radar signal from Warrego shows the deepening upper trough lined roughly NW/SE on the edge of the QLD channel country from NW of Winton down through Charleville.
The April 2009 Anzac Day ECL (that one sat off Lord Howe for a week) had it's genesis in a similar upper trough formation.
"The April 2009 Anzac Day ECL (that one sat off Lord Howe for a week) had it's genesis in a similar upper trough formation."
How the feck do you remember this sort of information Steve!!!
A week straight of 8-10ft Point surf tends to lodge in the memory.
@Freeride
Aye me Hearty
Ye Old Soothsaying Salt of the Earth
Could be a Windjammer at the Good Ship Lenny and his Oxen...
@Freeride
And while we're on the Bridge Captn
A catchy old Sea Shanty from you favourite author
http://dumbthchronicles.com/2012/05/the-revelation-of-the-asp-mr-richard...
Can't say I'm in love with the latest GFS pushing the low north of the 25th parallel. Lets hope the low axis retreats in an orderly fashion across the Tasman without too much of an onshore flow or bank-busting short range storm surf on the oft-fickle sandbars of the Northern Rivers et al.
I've lost any real excitement for this one now too Steve. Local winds will mean it's a points only affair and the majority of the swell will be sailing by these locations!!! :(
Latest GFS has backed off the gas pedal on the ECL and that might save the banks from a right royal rogering, possibly saving something for the S'ly groundswell pre and post the ECL.
NSW BOM outlook for Sydney waters on Tues: "Easterly 1 to 2 metres increasing to 3 to 5 metres in the late afternoon then tending southeasterly 5 to 6 metres during the evening."
Haven't seen the BOM forecast a 5-6m swell in this neck of the woods before.
Hi Ben,this east coast low seems to be playing out similar to an event way back in August of 1986 when a huge se swell washed sand onto the road along South Beach Wollongong where the original clubhouse used to be.Has anyone at swellnet have access to weather charts and swell forecasts from this time? I remember after the initial huge pulse of south east swell it was followed by at least 5 five days of overhead swell out of the east.Cheers
Holy crap, even I'm getting excited by the 00z GFS run!!! How's that swell S/SE forecast in the Tasman Sea.....can't remember the last time I saw pink blobs of S/SE swell in the Tasman Sea that close to the mainland!!!
Gonna be some serious beach erosion for sure.....bye bye banks!!!!
G'Day Redsands,
You've got a bloody good memory! I just took a quick squiz at the BOM and their archive charts only go back to 1999 so there's no way of obtaining one from them.
As for damage from the swell: I think there'll be quite a lot of damage inflicted. Take a look outside, it's a full moon, and with it big tidal swings. The high tide on both Tuesday night and Wednesday night is over 2.0m. They're some of the highest tides of the year and anywhere that's exposed to the SE is going to be tested.
Reckon there might be a few people at Wamberal, Norah Head, Old Bar and Belongil watching this ECL with dread.
Hey Stunet,yep remember like it was yesterday.Down this way at that time I still think it was the biggest I ever saw.Sandon pt was maxed out and it was straight offshore.North Wollongong bombie the left hander bowled all the way just short of the saltwater pool that day and there was even a 2-3ft righthander breaking into Belmore basin! It must of been a low tide towards the middle of that day as well and I ended up out at Kiama harbour that day one of the few options available.With regards to damage it will be interesting to see what happens.Out of interest it would be great if someone out there kept records from this time.
What does this all mean for SE QLD surf?
I am guessing onshore mud beachies and super crowded 3ft points?
Will souterly swell like this bend enough to get into the points to make anything special?
Pretty much reecen. It'll lose a lot of size as it rounds Cape Byron and further again past Point Danger but the points will be the only place to be. The models have shifted around a little since yesterday and have slightly downgraded Wednesday's outlook but it should be bigger than 3ft on the points (more like 4-5ft), plus another two or three foot if you're at an exposed south facing beach.
Redsands was right, August 86 was big...check towards the bottom of the page
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/sevwx/facts/ecl.shtml#hist
more info and charts here for the forecasters:
http://reg.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/1987/lynch.pdf
Ben, the swell is forecast to have a reasonable amount of east in the swell (ie SE swell direction) combined with a decent swell period, more so on Thursday from what I can see and hence I reckon Snapper could see some inconsistent 6ft sets with 4-5ft+ from Greeny to Kirra (with the upper end of this size range more so down towards Kirra). Still need confirmation of actual core wind speeds, direction and fetch length, but the above is based on latest GFS forecast.
Sure Don - that's the size we anticipated in yesterday's forecasts but the models took a slight sideways track in last night's run, and rapidly tracked the low to the east. As such, I'm just being a little cautious in case they maintain this trend into this evening's run.
Thanks alakaboo,that second link shows that low of Aug 86.I'm surprised more Sydney & Illawarra people don't remember it.
Ben - Ah yes, I was looking at the 18z GFS run. 00z GFS run looks alot less appealing.....although still has a nice SE swell running on Friday.
Cheers Ben/Don,
Looking forward to seeing what the result is.
Well it would be nice to know how big the swell is this morning across the southern NSW coast but alas, all the buoys have either been ripped from their moorings or turned off to protected them.
Eden stopped transmitting after average wave heights reached 8m's and Sydney stopped just as the swell front hit.
Be a lot of nervous people waiting for daybreak :o
Crowdy Head recorded an impressive J-curve in the early hours of this morning.
http://mhl.nsw.gov.au/htbin/wave_data_plot.com?Location=Crowdy_Head
All other buoys south of here are either totally or temporarily offline though.
Looks like the change may have slowed on the North Coast - winds swung gusty SW at Coffs Harbor at 2:30am, then S/SW at 4:20am. However winds are still W/SW at Yamba (and has been under 10kts all night!).
Craig, Batemans Bay seems to be back online.
http://new.mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/realtime/wave/station.php?station=bateman...
Ben, looks like you're still using the old links too, the new MHL site (linked above) has some more data like exceedance tables and easy links to BOM and tide data.
surf was around 6 foot sets at most spots round ulladulla this morning, seemed like a fairly short period swell though - i'd guess around 9 or 10 seconds. Poor quality waves, a bit all over the place. Should get better this arvo as the wind eases and hopefully more groundswell arrives. Won't do me any good though since i'll be at work :(
Cheers alakaboo, must of been rattled back into gear, haha.
And scoopmaster, only 6ft? Looking at the Bateman's readings I would of expected much larger waves at locations open to the south-east. Did you check only the protected spots that were cleaner?
craig, from what i could see in the pre-sunrise gloom at a well known right hander south of ulladulla ( i'm sure you know the one ) it looked around 6 foot sets, however one wave would barrell then the next one would crumble, then the one behind it would double up and go all weird. Keeping in mind the usual current there in S swells i would be surprised if anyone would bother going out till it cleaned up a bit. The only guys i saw out were at the headland at south mollymook getting some sectiony 5-6 footers. Yes somewhere fully open to the SE would be a little bigger, but anywhere really sheltered like Jervis Bay probably wouldn't have enough size this morning due to the short period swell.
Ah yes, cheers for that Scoopmaster, pretty surprising, but you'll see the swell spike again this afternoon with a strong new S'ly groundswell. Badluck about work, but the next few days are looking fun, just a few feet under Sydney's size but.
Crowdy Head is going off the Richter!
Average wave heights approaching 6m's with a max recorded at around 11m's.
http://www.mhl.nsw.gov.au/htbin/wave_data_plot.com?Location=Crowdy_Head
Swell has just hit Byron as well.
And Sydney's back coming in at an incredible peak of just under 14m's maximum wave heights with an average just under 8m's.
http://www.mhl.nsw.gov.au/htbin/wave_data_plot.com?Location=Sydney
Absolutely phenomenal!!!
I've been down at Cronulla all morning and while the size is impressive it's not HUGE. I was more taken by the chaotic nature of it all. At first light there were bommies breaking right across the mouth of Bate Bay and randomly within the bay. Sets would break a couple of times behind the Island before breaking at the Point which was only around six feet because of all the power shaved off by the reforms.
The cliffs near Voodoo were a sight to behold, getting pummelled by big walls of whitewash and the spray then exploding up over the cliffs and heading hundreds of metres inland. It was like standing on the edge of a sub-Antrarctic island in a storm.
This afternoon as the swell lines consolidate I think we'll see better conditions for surfers.
Bugger me Craig, that Sydney buoy is off tap. Hmax 14m....that's 42ft!!!! Geezus!!!!
I couldnt imagine what SE Qld beaches would look like after something like that.
Well in hindsight this swell in the Illawarra is nothing like the Aug 86.Today was a let down I must say.Much smaller than I thought even at the magnets and a very uneven swell for the points that are offshore in a southerly.I saw one or two places with a 6-8ft wave but in general it looked a shitty 5-6ft.Maybe next weeks east coast low will be better.
It was always gonna be a wild, raggedy swell but 6'-8', is that all there is down there? Much bigger than that in Sydney and Central Coast.
Yeah Stunet that's about all.But in saying that I was from Windang Island to Gerroa only today so I don't know what happened north of Wollongong.What a let down....there is always next time.
Predicted Swell Increase has hit S.E. Queensland. 1 ft This Morning,
Now 6ft+ & Messy on Goldy.. Noosa still Flat...
you do good synpotics sellnought - is there a bound edition?
Leather bound and gold leaf printed, Pete. You know where to send the money.
Brisbane wave buoy hit 11m @15seconds this evening!
http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/environmental_management/coast_and_oceans/wav...
Poncho ,
Do you know the Latt/Long of the Buoy ( or how far off Where ) .... in what depth ?
Southey,
It's all here mate.
http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/environmental_management/coast_and_oceans/wav...
Looks like this swell made it into the top 10 (although they haven't updated it yet).
Yes amigo
Amazing how quickly that swell peaked at @11m 8pm last night at Stradbroke Buoy and then trended back to 6 mtrs
Round 2 next week and this one looks more damaging for Northern NSW and SE Qld than the previous system. Great time of year!