COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Got my exemption from the border ban today and now I can’t get a visa for Indo.....Fuck me drunk.
Sypkan it will only take Morrison to have the political will to accept his quarantine responsibilities - herein is the problem.
Lots of Commonwealth land in each state could be used.
Oh man that sucks Blowin.
I just saw official documents in an Indo law and visa FB group that it's been officially confirmed and applied immediately.
Only Australian departures with already approved Visas to Indonesia can enter and have to have two negative test done within 24hrs of departure.
Suppose to also quarantine on arrival now too if can get there, but i think it's just self quarantine.
Even traveling around certain areas of Indo now have to quarantine.
Zero sympathy blowin. Absolutely zero.
A good friend of mine got that same exemption to leave the country a few weeks ago. He's now stuck in England after his father's funeral.
He doesn't know when he will be able to get back to Australia. It looks like being months. If you were allowed to get into Indo (no doubt after bullshitting on your outbound application) you could well have ended up taking his quarantine hotel slot. So in other words, suck shit you selfish prick.
Yeah Indo , it’s a shame . I definitely need a break . Not to worry , where there’s a will there’s a way .
I’ll get there sooner or later , one way or another.
Good to see you're in the Christmas spirit VL.
"So in other words, suck shit you selfish prick."
jesus!
Look on the bright side blowin. Some family, who have had a truly shithouse year apart, will get to hug loved ones because you’ve been stopped going on an international surf trip.
Goofyfoot. I can get into the Christmas spirit if you want.
Hey blowin. Suck shit. A lump of coal in your stocking you selfish prick.
Vic showing his softer side at last... heart-warming stuff.
Merry Christmas D-Rex
Indo. I’m thinking maybe just transitioning through a third country for a few weeks en route. Not yet sure if it’s an Indo exclusion for Aussies in general or merely for those coming from Australia. I’ll check into it after Chrissy.
Either way I’ll be getting some Indo gold early in 2021 before returning to Oz recharged from tube time.
I put a bit of faith in destiny so there must be a reason I can’t get there immediately. Meant to be I guess.
You too matey.
I'd like to say thanks to all the Victorians who helped get the Rona under control.
It meant travel from NZ was possible and my son could see his mum for the first time since she got stuck in oz 6 months ago.
Thanks again
You can be very hard arsed Vic, good luck Blowin
Thanks Guy. Good luck to you and your’s as well.
"Indo. I’m thinking maybe just transitioning through a third country for a few weeks en route. Not yet sure if it’s an Indo exclusion for Aussies in general or merely for those coming from Australia. I’ll check into it after Chrissy."
Yeah that's maybe possible, it's not a ban on Australia travellers as such, it's about anyone flying from Australia to Indonesia.
Don't know what entry requirements are to Malaysia with Covid but, its super easy and cheap to get from Malaysia/KL to Indo, and Malaysia is cheap too
Ive never been there but Cherating has waves this time of year, only short period swells, but if you had time to kill im sure it would be worth a one off tourist/novelty trip and a grovel.
BTW. Most of it's above my Bahasa Indonesia understanding and can't cut and paste to translate (missus already asleep), but i was just skimming through the official doc and i get the rough jist and from what i understand it looks like it's only for this Christmas period until the 8th January, but it also says at the bottom that the situation will be looked at again then.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AjYZhuUj2IXPUEM3X0TCvv-VJKDdgkNx/view?f...
Crew really put out in this forum & deserve a Xmas treat...
tbb in kind salutes the crew's research skills & we're all better for it.
Promise for Chrissie Bonus to lift again & make it a special Reward
Oz Pandemic Preparation is considered Gold Standard (World Best!)
Timeline of Oz Pandemic Exercises & Plans...{ Exclusive to #1 swellnet }
Marine Pandemics
April 2013 Exercise Control Freak RRT FMD + Fisheries intro.
Oct 2015 Exercise Marine Pest
June 2016 Exercise Apollo Land / Sea biosecurity
Dec 2016 Exercise Athena EAD (International Response)
May 2017 Exercise Fintan (Rapid Response)
https://www.animalhealthaustralia.com.au/training-exercises/
Ozwide + International
Sept 2002 Exercise Minotaur FMD Livestock Containment all States
16 Nov 2004 Australia's capacity to respond to an infectious disease outbreak.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parlia...
2004/5 Exercise Odysseus FMD Livestock Containment to sales level.
29th Nov 2005 Exercise Eleusis H5N1 Animal / Human Outbreak (3 days)
13th Oct 2006 - Exercise Cumpston Pandemic 1,000 x 4 days $4.1m
30 Nov 2006 - Exercise Paton-(re: Oz 1918) Pandemic
21 Dec 2006- Planning for Influenza Pandemic Issues APS employment issues.
https://www.apsc.gov.au/circular-20067-planning-influenza-pandemic-issue...
2008 Exercise Sustain (re: Oct 2006) Pandemic
2009 National Plan for Human Influenza Pandemic
https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2009-05/apo-nid299...
May 2012 Exercise Phantom Fox BTV in a new environment
2014/15 Exercise Odysseus (10 year reboot ) FMD Containment
June 2015 Exercise Slapstick FMD (Possibly Creek / River Bio intro )
Nov 2016 Exercise Athena FMD Global (English nations Outbreak)
March 2018 Exercise 'Border Bridge' (Animal) 2x LSD + GAS ( IT borders )
April 2014 > 2019 Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza
21st Feb 2019 DiNeMo Real time Pandemic Tracking Tool
https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2019/New-tool-to-track-human-...
Aug 2019 (2014 Update) Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/519F9392...
30th Aug 2019 Townsville JC Uni (North/South Pandemic info day)
https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2019/Scientists-team-up-to-fi...
7th Feb 2020 - Oz Covid -19 Plan
(Can any spot what's so odd about that!") see below
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/02/australi...
July 2020 General Practice Preparedness for a Pandemic
https://www.cesphn.org.au/documents/communications-1/coronavirus/3385-gu...
2020 - Aged Care Pandemic Management Plan (Royal Commission)
https://agedcare.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2020-08/HCA.0001.00...
2020 States, Housing, Chemists, Business ...Plans are Available
Aust' Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)
7th Feb 2020 (re: Above) Well it is a bit odd as WHO hadn't yet named Covid -19.
Covid 19 is plastered thru-out + must have been a month editing the 56 pages.
11th Feb WHO rename Coronavirus after best seller Aussie 'Covid-19' Plan?
https://coronavirus.tghn.org/who-announces-new-name-novel-corona-virus-c...
tbb is so lousy at conspiracy he sprinkles silly seasonings all over the crew..
Seriously! Does Oz have naming rights to Covid 19.
Will WHO pay Oz royalties for [ Covid-19 ] branded Made in China merch...
Time to temper the fear mongering again. Let’s bring it back a notch . Take it back to reality...
Sydney’s Saint Vincents long covid study is out, they found 40% suffer it
Faarrrk that’s a bad result
Luckily other bigger studies are lower. Even 10% though is a huge number. I too though it’d be a much lower number, similar to the mortality rate.
Couple of questions
Any evidence yet that long covid could be permanent covid? Because the way I see it, even a few dodgy months is no real big deal if you do fully get over it. Permanent covid would be different altogether
If these vaccines only limit the symptoms, while it’s thought you may still carry it, how does this play out?
My logic says that despite the vaccines and all previous lockdown efforts, it circulates for years till the majority of people get it. It’s dies a natural herd immunity death, because the state say that people aren’t getting it twice (I don’t care about randoms)
Now apply those long covid stats to the majority of the world’s population. Ouch
Here’s hoping that long covid is not permanent covid, and that the vaccines hidden power kills those long covid stats, or do indeed offer immunity
Bit of context needed there Shoredump.
The study was based on only 78 people and only 31 of them experienced any symptoms longer than 12 weeks. And only a third of that 31 experienced anything worse than flu like symptoms......this means that maybe 12 people in Australia suffered anything after 12 weeks .
No mention of age or underlying health problems either. As to be expected the media focused on the young person so as to present an unrepresentative jolt of fear inducing click bait for their readers.
Some of the 31 people who experienced symptoms after the initial 4 weeks only suffered short term loss of smell. Only 17 suffered shortness of breath.
28240 people have tested positive for COVID in Australia. It is likely than many more are positive ( if testing is to be trusted ) . When you consider that 17 people suggest a shortness of breath more than just a few weeks after showing any symptoms I’d say it’s a bit early to be hitting the panic button just yet.
As for permanent COVID .....lol. So far “ long COVID “ is anything over 5 weeks. I’ve had bruises last longer than that.
. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-23/long-term-effects-of-covid-study-...
Symptoms of Ross River fever are much worse than this and much more common......maybe it’s time everyone was banned from going outdoors cause it’s mosquito season ?
A person under the age of 75 is more likely to be killed by a shark than COVID in Australia. Long term affects of non fatal shark attacks affect more Australians and induce greater suffering than “ long COVID “. Fact.
A healthy person has more to fear from peanuts than COVID
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/dozens-of-victorians-rushed-...
Roger that Blowin, kind of the answer I was hoping for. Still developing my opinion on long covid, but your summary helps
shoredump, with all respect, surely going to a medical source or respected medical journalist is a better option to form an opinion on a medical issue, compared to a bloke called blowin on a forum on a surf website.
It's kind of like getting heavy engineering advice from a fishmonger.
Try https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/
or Johns Hopkins
You ever stopped to realise that your fear and aggression issues are one and the same bloke ?
You’ve obviously got some mental issues going on so I’m not judging you on this . Just wondering if you’re even aware that you’ve got a problem ?
I wonder if Leunig reads Swellnet forums
Yes, blowin I have problems: the two main ones are people who spread racism online and intellectual nobodies passing off dangerous scientific misinformation.
I'm still hoping for a world where people give and get the respect they deserve (in your case none) and listen to a range of experts to form opinions.
Mate, 12 months into this pandemic, you're still to the far left of the Dunning Kruger curve. You have no medical training but you still think your opinions are correct. You actually think your opinions are more worthy than the vast majority of scientists who spend their adult lives researching this issue. That's anti-intellectualism writ large.
Any rational human being understands their limitations. I have no medical training, so I form my Covid opinions based on peer-reviewed science published in the most respected medical journals. You on the other hand are Swellnet's Pete Evens.
Disagree Blowin, the stats I've seen show that you're more likely to die from a shark bite than from Covid if you're under the age of 50. But of course this doesn't take into account the efforts that have gone in to stopping the spread of the virus.
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/covid-19-deaths-by-age-group-and-sex
But generally speaking I agree it's important to keep things in perspective and avoid the shitting of pants.
In 2019 there were over 900 influenza linked deaths in Australia, compared to about the same number of deaths attributed to Corona this year, but again this doesn't take into account efforts to contain it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/early-outbreaks-to-blame-for-wors...
Fifty people per week attend hospital in Victoria alone for allergic reactions yet no one has proposed we all lock ourselves inside our homes for 23 hours per day to avoid peanuts or prawns.
Perspective has been completely lost.
99.98 percent of people survive COVID . Most people who test positive show no symptoms whatsoever. If you are healthy then you are virtually guaranteed to suffer slight or mild symptoms if anything at all. This includes healthy people of any age.
Even amongst the most vulnerable people to COVID : An 85 year old person has an 20 percent chance of dying from COVID and a 87 percent chance of dying through age related natural causes regardless.
There’s only one reality
Everyone just processes it differently
Is long covid worth stressing over?
Is it 3 months worth of head aches and shortness of breath, in ultimately 5% of us once it all plays out? Is it worse, or less worse than that? Is it permanent lung damage causing a loss of surfing ability among other things?
Some say yes, some say no
Some stress, some take it on the chin.
I personally am trying to avoid it as I hate injuries and illness, but I’m not stressing
Indisputable medical facts as presented by experts
Shoredump - Where did you get this figure of 5 percent of the population suffering from shortness of breath for 3 months ?
28400 people have tested positive for COVID in Australia.
5600 people are not suffering from shortness of breath 3 months later. The article has been structured to induce fear.
No one wants COVID , no one wants to be exposed to any potential illness. But you are exposed to many , many more potential threats to your well being than COVID every single day without existing in perennial fear.
I know crew that go to Bali and ride a motorcycle without skill or helmet and whilst full of drugs / alcohol, people who surf heavy waves over razor sharp reef far from medical assistance, people who ingest toxic substances bought from shady characters in back alleys and crew who have unprotected sex with notoriously aids ridden prostitutes , people who show minimal caution about the malaria and dengue which has killed millions upon millions of humans and yet I mention that I’m thinking of going to Indo during the COVID panic and they are concerned for my welfare ......strange.
blowin. Read it you absolute moron.
That's a prediction not a fact. Your problem blowin is, you're too stupid to understand the difference.
And even if that prediction is accurate, you need to multiply the figures by 80,000,000. That's the approximate number of reported cases (a bare minimum) around the world. I think you'll find that equals a shit load of deaths, hospital visits, ICU stays , missed treatments because hospitals are full etc etc etc.
But keep ignoring the experts Pete blowin Evens.
My guess as to covids end game, possibly
If:
The vaccine suppresses symptoms more so than providing immunity, then herd immunity of 60% is inevitable.
Based on the bigger long covid studies, 10% suffer from it, including those symptoms.
10% of half = 5%
This is where we could be in 3-4 years, unless the vaccine provides immunity
Time to get help for your aggression problem bloke . I understand it’s only an online thing otherwise you’d be asking Santa for new front teeth every year. If you have a missus ill guarantee that she wears the pants .
Sad
No one is insulting you so there is zero justification to talk like a fourteen year old who’s just had his first beer in front of his mates. Just cool it.
BTW- Looks like Vic Local’s penchant for authoritarian governance will bite him on the arse if we aren’t careful.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/online-trolls-on-notice-as-gover...
COVID end game :
/ Companies make trillions selling vaccines
/ Governments use COVID as justification for endless tracking , control and coercion of their populations and as an excuse for ever greater intrusion into our lives and reduction in individual freedoms.
/ Anyone who was ever going to get COVID gets it anyway and the world moves on as it always has.
blowin, don't mistake my understanding of this crisis and respect for my fellow citizens as a "penchant for authoritarian governance".
I've been fighting scum like Peter Dutton and Christian Porter as they undermine our democracy, media freedoms, and judicial system for decades.
You only scream "authoritarian" when it directly impacts you. In this case it involves going on an overseas holiday to a covid hotspot in the middle of a pandemic. As usual it's always all about you.
America is crumbling due to covid 19 because the country is filled with people exactly like you. They demand their "freedumbs" to do whatever they like, whenever they like. If a government makes the inherently sensible decision to make mask wearing mandatory they go ballistic and refuse to follow the rules. When Nanna or a doctor treating Covid patients dies due to the callous disregard for rules designed to protect human life, that's the price of freedom.
So why don't you fuck off to America (You have the leave pass), and go live in a country that is falling apart at the seams with your fellow travellers.
Post Covid patients have low granulocytes...Wot!
Kinda a like chemo...low bone marrow, anemic, low immunity.
Science is out...whispers that Vaccine may do the same...
That's the smoking Gun...
Conspiracy theorists should check when possible .
If vax is Lowering Neutrophils / Eosinophils / Basophils.
Could be a new order of GOF Big Pharm re- stamping future illness.
The idea is to re-program immune systems to suit Big Pharm not to maim or kill!
Almost like a reset...with all new post covid immune recipes geared to a few mates.
Redo meaning a redesigned Human race that suckles goop from you know WHO.
This post vax immune system info will be guarded... not for us ...good luck!
Should be freely shared, but tbb thinks this is the honey pot...for lawyers also.
Yeah, I first learnt to ride a motorbike on the streets of Kuta, with a young lady riding pillion, while bar hopping. Crashed into the wall in the first 3 seconds, but all good from there. First thing I did when I got home was get my bike licence.
I also got my skydiving licence while still a high school kid.
I’m not terrified at all by covid, just stating for me personally I think it’s best to be patient and let the vaccine do it’s thing.
Good luck on your travels, keep us jealous with your pics, I reckon if I was in your position I’d be going too.
You’ve probably forgotten me giving you a hard time for coming home in the first place!
Vic Local eats pieces of shit like Dutton for breakfast !
Shoredump- Cheers mate . If I ever get there !
I’m not scared but of course I’ll take every precaution to avoid catching it to protect myself and everyone else . That’s all you can do right ? That and go about living your life !
I often think about when I came home this year and whether I’d do the same again knowing what I know now. The answer is .....I wish I hadn’t but I was obliged due to responsibilities towards other people and that’s reason enough.
I’m sure there’s still empty lineups to be found by the time I get there.
Update : https://beachgrit.com/2020/12/indonesian-island-bali-to-re-open-for-fore...
"If you have a missus ill (sic) guarantee that she wears the pants .
Sad
No one is insulting you so there is zero justification to talk like a fourteen year old..." Followed by a picture of a teenage girl pinning a boy up against a tennis court fence.
Oh my, just between you and me blowin, I reckon you might be missing the self awareness chromosome.
Interesting that Singapore has now got to 70% take up with their Covid app the magic percentage where its effectiveness really ramps up, was really surprised at first with the low initial take up, but this is what you would expect from Singapore.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-tracetogether-ad...
It was only at about 60% early December too.
Apparently it's halfed contact tracing time, which means less time to spread further.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-08/singapore-app-halves-...
Pity Australia couldn't get this right, never understood why it didnt trace every contact not just those you come in contact for 15 minutes.
You can blame the government, but the so called experts were the ones saying this was the suitable time span, i just don't get that, common sense says ift should have recorded every single contact no matter how short the time span.
It must have been more around not spooking people, thinking people would be more paranoid of the app if it recorded every interaction no matter how short.
But people were paranoid anyway, i guess its just a culture thing, pity, if this keeps going on the advantage they have now is way ahead of others.
In regard to the problem of some phones not working with the app that we had and they had, they have overcome this with a thing called a token, does the same thing using bluetooth.
"Interesting that Singapore has now got to 70% take up with their Covid app the magic percentage where its effectiveness really ramps up, was really surprised at first with the low initial take up, but this is what you would expect from Singapore."
interesting that that's all they've got...
interesting (and encouraging... for me anyway...) that singapore seem almost as paranoid as oz of the wuhan surviellance state...
good on em!
I wonder if people across the world would have taken these apps up more readily if governments and the tech. giants hadn't sold us all out so much to china...
it's seems so, I know I would have
praise the gods for donald trump shoving a stick in that wheel!
love or hate him... if it wasn't for trump, the Corporate Clinton Network, it's replacement Biden inc. and the tech. giants (fb, amazon, google etc. and the manufacturers) would have us all in the most vulnerable of positions right now
geez I sincerely hate to think what could've been...
I wonder if oz is the only country that went bluetooth for their app?
the whole thing was a fuck up from the beginning. compounded with a lack of trust born of robodebt, my health, and just about anything techy the government touches
choosing amazon as their data storage space was the nail in the coffin
70% is pretty good, it was only like 20% of something after a few weeks initially, when you would have expected the major take up to happen, interesting that it has continued to be taken up, be interesting to know why the take up continues.
Motivated by success of use?....push by government? or what?
Singapores app is also a blue tooth one, i believe ours is closely based on theirs.
Interesting how people see things differently, i don't see it as a fuck up, i see it as having a go which is better than not having a go, its failure is really down to culture, Singapore has had all the same technical issues as we had but have persisted and adjusted as needed, but they have the culture to make it worthwhile to keep persisting.
Most things in life don't come easy, humans wouldn't be where we are if people gave up on first attempts.
Do agree on the China thing though, and the stick in the wheel, people like Vic will never agree, but the change in direction Trump has taken with China is very important for USA which allows it to be easier for us to steer away from China as much as possible.
And then off course Covid has been like adding petrol to mix.
If none of this had happened I'm sure more eggs would have been put in the China basket.
This is the real reset, the world awakening to China.
Imagine how successful Clive Palmers adverts would be now.
Pretty clever, best Christmas light set up ever.
Anytime Happy Gilmore is raised in any discussion is good day, good one Blowin.
Is that for real Indo?
That’s hilarious.
Haha ,, Nice one ID,,
I'm doing my bit.
TBB I don’t want to put words in your mouth but I think you smell the same rat that I do regarding the vaccine/s. Almost everyone wants a vaccine that provides safety against Covid, but who trusts big pharma considering the amount of money involved?
Currently the new Covid vaccines are unproven not to be harmful in the mid to long term, and won’t be proven until the mid to long term of a human lifetime realistically. Scientists rely on testing these vaccines on animals with short lifespans to make predictions of long term effects in humans according to the effects on the tested animals. It is not a perfect science. At least one of these vaccines (Pfizer) is using completely new rMNA technology, which could possibly be a huge success, but it is unproven and won’t be for years. Couple that with the huge $$$, market competition and power of big pharma and the ‘expert’ opinions are hard to accept without extreme scepticism, for me anyway.
Sypkan I agree with the problem of using Amazon for the Covid app, could be my cynicism towards these monopolistic companies but I have zero trust that my data wouldn’t be harvested and sold by those bastards.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia