COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
200 cases.....is anyone sick and potentially transmissive ?
Or is that question not worthy of our attention ?
200 cases.....is anyone sick and potentially transmissive ?
12 months into this pandemic and you're still asking profoundly stupid questions. You really are a dopey fucker blowin.
Tell me more about Sydney bloke.......lol
3 Melbourne cases, Mitcham, Hallam, Mentone
Here we go again.
Synchrodogcal.....it’s like hitting a punching bag. You don’t expect a meaningful response from it but it keeps the blood flowing.
3 Melbourne cases !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fuck !!!!!!
Quick Vic Local - run into your basement bloke !
Isn’t it strange that after the FAILED year long lockdown experiment that it’s the loudest proponents of lockdowns who still haven’t realised that THEY are the dopey fuckers.
Stupid bastards are holding a massive rock above their heads thinking that if they were just a little bit more disciplined they could defeat gravity and hold it there forever.
I wouldn’t give a shit if they didn’t force the rest of society to indulge their stupidity at the expense of their freedoms.
Worked for Vic, for WA, for SA, for NT, for Tas, for ACT.
How has it worked ?
You just said yourself that Melbourne has cases again. It’s finger in the dyke stuff. If you are happy to forfeit your life in order to keep your finger plugged in the hole then good luck but why should everyone else be expected to abandon their lives at the same time ?
If you are worried about the virus then YOU should isolate and let everyone else live their lives as they please. If I got melanoma and couldn’t go out in the sun anymore I wouldn’t expect the entire Earth to put up a solar shield to protect me.....what’s the difference?
NSW was different, it allowed it to bubble along. 3 Vic cases are close contacts to recent travelers to NSW apparently.
The other states did the initial lockdown then kept it out, and kept it from getting out of quarantine.
"the FAILED year long lockdown experiment"
Only a seriously dopey fucker would think Australia's lockdown laws have been a failure. blowin, why don't you fuck off to 'Merica which is filled with "freedumb" lovin folk just like you?
If Australia didn't lockdown we'd be just like the USA and in more shit than a Werribee Duck.
Vic Local.....I get it bloke.
I understand that you’re an old frail coward who is driven by the most selfish of motives and who is not concerned about forcing the 99.99 percent of Australians who are not at risk from the virus to destroy their lives , be seperated from loved ones , abandon their dreams and to do so just because you are ruled by irrational fear.
I understand this bloke. I just don’t respect you for it.
You don't seem to get it Blowin, I'd love to just be selfish and go on with my life without caring about others but I tell you if that were the approach we'd see the hospitals overloaded very rapidly, health workers falling sick, more people dying, normal emergency hospital visits put to the bottom of the list etc etc.
The economy would take a much bigger hit as restrictions eventually have to be brought back in to bring things back under control and take the stress off the health system.
Patience is thinning but it's what we have to do, not just for yourself but for the greater good of everyone.
To respond to the individual part, yes, that is my intention. Because of my situation, I cannot isolate entirely. Thus I am at the whim of everyone else living their life as they please, whether I like it or not. Some of them don't care about others or are unable to feel empathy - I think about 5% of people are psychopaths, read that somewhere.
As far as finger in the dyke stuff, it may seem so in a seamlessly connected world. History shows plagues and viruses going through communities and across the world, and isolating transmission as the primary defence that worked, with quarantines developed over time. I'll also argue we won't have a seamlessly connected world after this; it won't look quite like the globalised world before. You were big on borders. Keep the hordes out. I can't think of a better time to enforce them tbh. You may also note Indo has just closed foreign travel in - probably in response to new South African/British strains.
No. Craig. You don’t get it.
Unless the hospital staff are 83 year old diabetics with heart disease they will be OK.
This is science Craig . I thought you respected science.
Survival rates are now higher than those indicated below
Answer this question Craig.
Going off the official medical data supplied above what is the likely survival percentage of a healthy 28 year old registered female nurse ?
What about a healthy 33 year old male doctor like the ones I saw today ( who weren’t wearing face masks ) ?
It’s called science and your media propagated fear has no bearing on its reality .
They won't be OK when they're off work for a week or two, suffer long term fatigue (as a couple of my friends who got it have) and there's no one to back them up.
You tried to work while being heavily under the weather? And in an overstressed, critical environment.
It's not about survival it's about keeping the health system fully functional.
Long term fatigue ?
Ross river fever everywhere up here mate ....you’d better stay away forever if you’re worried about a few weeks tired.
"Synchrodogcal.....it’s like hitting a punching bag. You don’t expect a meaningful response from it but it keeps the blood flowing."
true, loved getting into the heavy bag when i was 19 or 20
small things and all
Craig....you back to peddling “ flatten the curve “ again mate ?
Sorry fella that has been superseded by elimination.
Unfortunately elimination means destroying the country and the lives of everyone in it except the scared , yellow bellies who want to be locked in a cage with their wings clipped for their own safety.
Anyway.....how did flatten the curve work out ? Postponed the inevitable. Look mate , you may be happy locked on your Beaches for eternity but I sure as fuck am not.
There’s only one outcome for this and it sure as hell isn’t the hoax vaccine which doesn’t stop the virus. We have slowed this thing for a year and we are no closer to salvation but the world is broken .
Tell the 1.5 million Aussies on the dwindling jobseeker that the sacra has been worth it. I’ve got friends who are about to enter a world of financial pain which will make the two weeks tired that your friends endured seem like a holiday.
No I'm not, a bit has changed since this first started back in March..
I have zero fear of the virus but it still seems to me we've done way, way better than the shitshow that has been allowed to develop in UK, USA, Russia, India, South Africa etc etc.
Freeride.....you aware that the average age of Covid death is higher than the average life expectancy and that even old crew are highly unlikely to die unless they are LIKELY TO DIE ANYWAY.
That is uncontested fact.
Shitshow......don’t believe the hype.
Keep your fear to yourself
No hype.
My wife is from England so I'm getting my information from people over there.
my sis in law and bro in law both got it.
she was sick like a bad flu, he was fcuked for 6 weeks, v. close to hospitalisation.
it's an out of control shitshow over there.
65000 deaths in USA from Covid just for December.
I dunno, personally I have next to zero chance of being affected by it, but I think we'd all be better off if it didn't get out of control like over there.
Blowin I understand where you are coming from but you need to have a closer look at people who survive but have severe ongoing health problems due to Covid , this is where the virus takes it’s victims on a ugly journey. Early treatment is critical , being told to isolate and stay home is not the answer but it’s what governments are telling us , if you get really sick then go to hospital WTF , keep an eye on Africa and Belgium and some Indian states over the coming months
Oh FFS blowin, just stop embarrassing yourself. The blokes who had the same "nothing to worry about" "no need for a lockdown" argument, buggered off in March. They looked at the mountain of evidence and realised 9 months ago their argument had no merit.
But not you blowin, you never admit you're wrong, so you just come on here everyday and humiliate yourself.
Mate, seriously, get off this forum for a few days, head to some quiet place, sit down, breathe, and ask yourself this very basic question "Could I be wrong"? It would be good for you.
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."
Bertrand Russell
"Keep your fear to yourself"
tell that to these crew
"England are already setting up tents to increase their capacity. They say ambulances are waiting outside hospitals for hours because there is no space inside."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/12/29/uk-covid-cases-record/
it's not about us man, really hope you aren't friends with any nurses, cos your attitude is just ****ish in regards to them
I was wrong back in March when I was saying the same irrational fear mongering that you peddle now , Vic Local.
I realised the error of my ways and admit I was wrong.
If you showed me some information that demonstrated what is happening with Covid in UK, USA etc etc is all "hype" I'd look at it with an open mind.
what have you got?
'It's not about survival it's about keeping the health system fully functional"
reasonably simple concept you'd assume
Well ive had pneumonia twice in my life now and its pretty fucked up let me tell you and its easy for people who have never experienced that to brush it off as nothing,but unless you like suffocating ,cause thats what it does to you, in yellow/brown mucus, i can assure you it would be a really fuked way to die..... at any age......
I have this sense of deja vu.
This time last year Morrison missing this year again nothing.
NSW Covid spreading, Morrission’s Chief Medical Officer saying don’t go to the Test, Sydney’s fireworks are going ahead against the advice of pandemic specialists, berejiklian “asking” people to wear masks and is upset with Victoria for shutting its borders .... WITF is going on in this country right now?
Meanwhile in Melbourne NYE fireworks are cancelled and 61 straight days of Covid free tonight broken by 3 cases linked to NSW.
Blowin (asked me a question earlier today, sorry I didn't answer, been offline/busy, don't want to be rude to Blowin!) The question, am I scared of a prehistoric mutating bat virus that can kill someone my age very quickly? The answer is yes, but I do put a lot of faith in your mate Dictator Dan and his team to make the hard choices if/when it gets out. I wouldn't feel as secure in NSW.
Are you scared of all things that can kill you Adam12, or is the fear weighted more towards the bat virus?
I’ve got the best bakery in the country on the road between my place and the best local beachie. It’s taking years off my life and it’s clogging the hospital system, but still I always call in. Chunky beef & mushroom is my go to, but there’s a few I’ll stray to occasionally. I usually wash it with an Orange Fanta. It spins me out to think how loved that place is by everyone, even though it’s killing everyone. There are a few people I know who are terrified by it and won’t step foot in there. They don’t want to die a slow painful death, funnily enough, so they take measures to separate themselves from others to avoid it getting into their systems. Fair enough I reckon
The boomer remover nickname was justified revenge
Thank Blowin for sending tbb to Hell & back.
tbb followed up Blowin's mental claims that dare question that less were dying?
How Bizarre! Victoria has never been more Alive!
Warning! Following text gets a bit morbid before breathing new life for new year.
tbb was thrown by Blowin's comments of less deaths with Covid.(Is that possible?)
So promised to backtrack for clues....here's a Tale of our true Aussie madness.
Australian States all register Death at own leisurely pace.
In fact Aussies are the slowest in the world at registering a Death / A Covid Death.
How Slow! Weeks, Months > Year. (Why is that?)
Well, Oz don't reckon you're Dead until Post Funeral. (That is Bizarre & creepy)
Typically 1-2 weeks until Funeral > 1 week after Rego > 1-4 weeks Certificate.
Depending on State can be 7 weeks delay + 3weeks for error = 10 weeks.
Oz Covid Death Stats lag well behind the Modern World...(That's good isn't it?)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-23/coronavirus-australia-excess-deat...
Only starting to get weird!
('Does that mean Aussies live longer?') Next Question!
Federal Govt only wishes to record stand alone Covid Deaths (No combo illness)
Yes! Obviously to keep the Age Care deaths to a Minimum! (Not Joking!) Insurance!
Whereas the States (General) include (Covid / illness Combo as a Covid Death)
Sadly as a result...our current stats will likely revise upward with time.
Because of Oz being so slow it backs up...(Example of current Oz Autopsy priority).
A young death will always be reviewed first due to dire Covid implications.
Countless of Elderly reviews will take years upon years...each adding to Covid Toll.
Consider Fed Govt has already slowed the count & will likely slow it forever.
See next for Aged Care Pile Up...
Getting weirder by the minute...{RIP} tbb respects the dead.
Truly apologize & did forewarn that creepy topic may come across as morbid.
tbb waded thru deep shock factor & it relays no other way! It is what it is! Death!
31st Aug-Scomo & Brendan Dump 22 bodies on Dan's door?
4th Sept -Scomo & Brendan pile up a further 53 bodies at Dan's Daily Do?
28th Oct -Scomo & Brendan throw another 2 onto Dan's Coffin.
Scomo's living dead had long kicked the Bucket from July >Aug > Sept.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/authorities-defend-discrepan...
Before we continue...Vic Premier was fine with Record daily Death Toll Poll boost.
Crew heard many a time that Dan was not to speak ill of Scomo's Age Care or ADF.
The whole idea was to include (Combo Deaths) into National (State) Tally as one.
Sounds innocent enough...but who's gonna buy it!
Did Scomo politicise Age Care Stats?
1. Aged Care dumps added to Dan's toll to shock! (Record high Toll = Lower Poll)
2. Forgetful Colbeck was never allowed to say how many died in age care (Depends!)
3. Feds can then rort 2 sets of stats when answering Age Care Inquiry.
4. Feds also massage (Pure Covid Stats) to dummy up reviews.
eg:
3rd Sept : PM Q Time: Wyndham lodge has 10 deaths (Wrong!) Answer 17 deaths.
He was then pulled up...Oops! Sorry! Mixed up my Dirt File with my Crooked Stats!
Health Reviews clearly show 20% stand alone Covid but texts claim 9% Covid.
This is said to relate to regional Hospitals that aren't shown in reports...(Made Up!)
tbb researched another Govt table 22% > again reported as a [9%] underline?
Not going to dwell on it...but have to say [9%] stat is dodgy but Govt hangs on it!
Again! Some Global virus U10% Insurance Health Rating rebate must be at stake?
Clearly at all times PM/Brendan are angling for an under 10% Covid Death stat.
Can tbb turn this mess around to finish the year with some Good News...Well durr!
But! Be warned, as it's even more Alarming! Wot! (But that can be good..right!)
Australian Death Rate fell in 2020 (That's right! Less Aussies Died this Year!)
Following % are rough estimates from ABS Graphs.(Graphs included for exact %)
Deaths down by Dementia / Stroke / Heart...
Deaths by Pneumonia down by 50% / Respiratory down 25% (low Res down 15%)
(Explain! More Flu Vaccination + Isolation / Quarantined Events reduced Flu cases)
However there is a downside...Deaths by Diabetes up 5% / Cancer up 10%
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortal...
Overall Deaths were down by at least 1000 on 5 year average & dropping more so.
As to 2019 (2,500 lower) as to upward trend ...roughly 5,000 less than predicted.
(These are obviously approx stats...until 2020 stats are in)
tbb saved the weirdest for last...all here defended Dan or threw Pies. (For What?)
Vic Deaths by year.
(2017 - 39,791) > (2018 - 40,800) > (2019 - 43,944) > (2020 - 41,346)
https://www.bdm.vic.gov.au/research-and-family-history/research-and-data...
Last 12 mths from start Dec 2019 to end of Nov 2020 = 41,346 (Double Checked)
Adjusted 2020 calendar total should drop 2020 Total further...to nudge 2018.
Vic Premier winds back the death clock by 2 years + still cops a Pieshop of Pies?
When all is said & done...these stats will show Dan's Daily Dose was the cure.
Get on the Beers...
PS: Cannabis was the Lockdown Drug of Choice! (Saving 1,000's of lives!)
Norm returns for 2021 National Health Campaign.
Norm : "Life! Be Out of it Yeah!"
TBB - cheers for a big year as Swellnet resident fact-check and deep dive researcher par excellence .
Journey on through 2021 legend
Shoredump, good on ya, pie shops don't scare me per se, but would you scoff a wuhan bat and mushroom pie? Wash it down with a Corona?
Yep, just smashed 3 of them. They’re nice with sauce...
You’ve got to be careful in life but no need being scared of shit. I’ve had two friends die in car accidents and two permanently maimed. 4 separate accidents. I’m not scared of driving even though I am aware of the permanent threat. The point is to be careful in life without being fearful
Like you are with your diet & your driving
“Did Scomo politicise Age Care Stats?”
He’s done nothing but play politics with covid. The stats have been laundered and Scomo is squeaky clean. Our own shiny angel blessed by Brian, gods messenger no less
Well folks it's NY resolution time and I will be signing off from this forum.
First up, my work life is going into a new phase. 2020 saw me spending too much time on Swellnet while waiting for large files to upload. That's changing now.
Secondly, I've enjoyed reading some quality links and opinions by VJ, GS, TBB, ringmaster, views etc. Haven't always agreed with them, but they are genuine fact-based opinions worthy of respect.
So why my aggressive approach? Well folks, it was never about trying to change my opponent's opinions. It was always about making sure their racism and Covid misinformation didn't go unchallenged.
I have a lot less friends in the USA nowadays. They are still friends but they've left the country and come back to Australia, NZ, or moved to Europe. They are genuinely rattled by the rise of racism, the American Covid disaster, and the general decline in the USA.
Luckily, Australia doesn't have a critical mass of anti-science racist arseholes yet, but if people tolerate their rubbish, we know what sort of society that produces.
Hopefully someone can take up my role of calling out the BS and holding the racists to account.
Don't punch down, know your limitations, respect the experts, and hold the rabble to account.
Farewell folks. Best wishes for 2021.
Love Vic Local.
Stay healthy and happy bloke.
Best wishes.
"...They are genuinely rattled by the rise of racism, the American Covid disaster, and the general decline in the USA.
Luckily, Australia doesn't have a critical mass of anti-science racist arseholes yet, but if people tolerate their rubbish, we know what sort of society that produces."
here's a thought...
nothing has really changed, just the 'anti racist' 'activists' have had their insular bubble of censorship popped, at the same time as their unrealistic expectations have gone through the roof, ...and then some... facillitared and compounded by some pretty dodgy delusions and practices of media and academia...
just a thought
or an observation...
anyway all the best, ...seriously... all that hostility is not very zen
Yep, all the best VL and others! See you in the New Year.
All the best VL, it's been fun
Good luck on the business front
A report from NSW health dated 23/12/20 it will be interesting to see if this goes anywhere in the USA once Biden is in power . I’m still slightly amazed Australian government didn’t do its own trials when Dr Borody put forward his proposal. The man has a pretty impressive resume and what he’s achieved in his career is outstanding. If you can be bothered reading this link it’s about 18 pages long. Cheers and all the best for everyone in 2021 https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/625090/2020122...
You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave :)
Seriously, good luck with the new working life, I should do the same and be more productive. Life takes its twists and I may find myself in some form of carer's role so any info on this from Blowin are equally welcome. 2021 will be different again, good luck and all the best to you all.
Re: the large files, sites like pr0nhub now exist and keep things in smaller download sizes :)
He’ll be back..
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia