COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 8:28am

Ha Ha,
I'm copping abuse from a bloke called supafreak, a Pete Evens wannabe, pushing quack treatment for Covid 19 online. Keep up the medical research on YouTube big fella!!!
Next up is Fitzroy who is happy to absolve the Federal Government of any Quarantine responsibility because they "subcontracted it out".
And then there's dear old blowin, a male Pauline Hanson who published a meme the other day about Chinese people eating western babies.
You know what blokes. I'd be worried about my mental health if you three were praising me on this forum not abusing me.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 9:04am

"Voluntary lockdowns have now been replaced by mandatory ones (like I predicted)"

You're write to be very worried about your mental health....

adam12's picture
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adam12 Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 9:56am

"On arrival in Australia the crew salute Dutto then sign the all clear form"
Classic TBB

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 12:27pm

Found out yesterday all of a friends family have Covid in Jakarta.

My wife's uncle has also had it too.

Starts getting more real when you start to know people who have it.

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truebluebasher Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 2:46pm

thanks adam12 ...can recall flying into US 1987.
LA Airport was wallpapered floor to ceiling in then ruling Dictator Reagan Portraits.
Still the biggest & most numerous selfie banners tbb can recall in urban settings.
Yes! All the way around ...like in a North Korean state run airport.

Checking those past flight cases noting quite a few (Mystery Fights) [ TBC ]
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/flights-archive....

Recall those 10 Mbne Chinese Air Fleets disappearing from Radar at 11th hour
Recall those Artania Mystery Flights Out & Conflicting Passenger numbers.

What's going on is that Diplomats + VIP's do not need the publicity.
UA are fine to share common outbreaks...but never a mile high club member.
Avalon would be right to presume a Hillstar / Pollie was onboard suspected flight.
Shades of Sydney Hillsong Princess outbreak...

tbb also doubled back thru our Timeline to find constant glaring underlying flaws.
US Airport / Crew / Multihot cleaners / Multihot drivers / Health MP / Premier / Qld.
The whole damn lot habitually breach "Covid Test - quarantine" as if it were a joke!
The driver does all 27 hotels + Runs a Home Service .(Where to start tracing?)
Qld tested the Avalon stomper & waved her off in a rent'a'car (Blow kiss the result!)
Clearly a FIFO review is in order & not just for the Yanks...as if they'd even bother.
When you see 100% of those who instruct & run Tests, care least of all...it's a fail!

tbb acknowledges this is an interstate / international incident.
Qldurrz apologize for any backsies super spreading thru NSW.

Sydney - Hobart has sunk without a Trace.
Reminder : Just 4 more border closures until Xmas.

Sydney NYE 9:00 Fireworks cancelled.
[VOTE] for your fav' NYE Fireworks ban.
1) Hotter than Hell Bush Fire Ban.
2) Common everyday Covid Outbreak
3) China slaps $8b tax on $8m Essential Sydney Fireworks
4) Hillsong $8b Opera House 2nd coming light show is more heavenly.
or
(Conspiracy) China packed Covid into Sydney NYE Fireworks

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sypkan Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 3:56pm

"Found out yesterday all of a friends family have Covid in Jakarta.

My wife's uncle has also had it too.

Starts getting more real when you start to know people who have it."

any word on the effects or seriousness of their illness indo?

geez I'd hate to be stuck in jakarta right now

Distracted's picture
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Distracted Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 4:06pm

Covid case at Forster, mid north coast NSW.... could be a difficult couple weeks coming up in the holiday towns that are favoured destinations for people from the Northern Beaches.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 5:41pm

Seriously Supafreak. Just fuck off.

Some side effects that may be associated with ivermectin include:
painful joints or muscles, unusual tiredness or weakness, skin rash or itch
headache, nausea, vomiting, stomach discomfort, dizziness, swelling of the face or the legs, worsening asthma.
And there's no evidence it is an effective covid treatment. Enough Crap. There are serious medical problems in South America because people are taking this drug for no good reason. I'm pretty sure the boys at Swellnet don't want their site being used to peddle dangerous quack medical advice.

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AndyM Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 6:16pm

"In April 2020, Australian researchers published results from a laboratory experiment showing ivermectin could stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus from multiplying in animal cells under a microscope.6 This discovery was exciting, however even the researchers themselves have cautioned that this one study is not enough to prove the medicine will work against COVID-19 in humans.7 The experiment was performed on monkey cells in test tubes, and the dose of ivermectin used was a lot higher than has ever been given to a human.6-8

More work needs to be done; first, to see if ivermectin works on the SARs-CoV-2 virus in humans, and second, to see if there is an effective dose that is also safe. This type of research will involve clinical trials to study the medicine in human subjects.

Clinical trial evidence is important because people with COVID-19 may already be very unwell, and should not take a medicine that might make them sicker."

https://www.nps.org.au/ivermectin-and-covid-19

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Supafreak Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 6:54pm

Yes Andy M I came across this 2 weeks ago , data is rolling in from around the world on the clinical trials and is all very positive , It can be used at the moment in America but only in clinical trials , with the evidence that’s now been submitted after the senate hearing it will be interesting to see what the outcome is , in the link I posted before it was from the Australian in September when a dr. In Melbourne used it on aged care patients with great results, he was able to save 15 patients probably more later , the new protocol that’s been developed is extremely promising.

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troppo dichotomy Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 6:54pm

Might?Might not?

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Supafreak Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 6:55pm

From memory Andy m your article is from September

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Supafreak Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 6:55pm

From memory Andy m your article is from September

troppo dichotomy's picture
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troppo dichotomy Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 7:15pm

Supafreak thanks for all the info.
I am amazed at the resistance/censorship to explore all available options.

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Supafreak Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 7:25pm

Yeah troppo , what I found really interesting in the senate hearing video was the senator speaking about how the media both msm and social like Facebook dictate the information we get , it was actually defended a bit by Dr Kory but it does send a confusing message . American msm in my mind is atrocious in how they favour either the left or right.

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AndyM Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 7:45pm

Supafreak, considering what is said in that article ("The experiment was performed on monkey cells in test tubes, and the dose of ivermectin used was a lot higher than has ever been given to a human"), how could a doctor in Melbourne administer it to patients?

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 8:00pm

Andy M open the link the Australian breaking news it’s back a few messages ago and the prwire link also shows what’s been done

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Vic Local Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 8:08pm

'Repurposing ivermectin as a “cure” for COVID-19 would require massive doses, which would substantially increase the risk of side effects such as nausea, rash, dizziness, immune suppression, abdominal pain, fever, raised heart rate and unstable blood pressure."
https://theconversation.com/ivermectin-is-still-not-a-miracle-cure-for-c...
"But the PAHO has said studies so far "were found to have a high risk of bias, very low certainty of the evidence, and that the existing evidence is insufficient to draw a conclusion on benefits and harms."
Ivermectin "is incorrectly being used for the treatment of Covid-19" says the PAHO, "without any scientific evidence of its efficacy and safety for the treatment of this disease".
Despite this, health officials in Peru, Bolivia and parts of Brazil have endorsed and administered the drug - and it has been widely sold.
"In the case of ivermectin, all corners have been cut", says Dr Carlos Chaccour, Assistant Research Professor at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.
"A combination of doctors and governments legitimately desperate to help" he says "plus the particular abundance of ivermectin in Latin America, help to explain why the drug has been so popular."
Warnings have also been issued about the risks of a version of the drug designed for animals not humans that could do serious harm, which is being sold on the black market."
https://www.bbc.com/news/53361876

"‘At this stage I’m not aware of that data,’ he told newsGP. ‘And if there is such convincing data, I think it would be helpful for that to be shared with everyone.’

Associate Professor Tong says he is aware of a study performed in Bangladesh involving ivermectin."

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/insufficient-evidence-to-curre...

So in conclusion. STFU supafreak, you're talking absolute shit, which would normally be fine, except bullshit medical advice does have consequences.

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Supafreak Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 8:50pm

VL have a look at the dates of your links , it is now December and the data is in and continuing to come in from 30 trials around the world , the data is available to anyone who wishes to view it

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Supafreak Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 8:51pm

Goodnight sleep tight

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I focus Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 8:52pm

So......COVID has had the most resources with the greatest number of researchers along with the largest number of medical professionals sharing data ever in human medical history.

This we know with the rapid dramatic reductions in death rates as a result of the disease.

But some how there is a secret cure yet undiscovered........ FFS.

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GuySmiley Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 8:03am

“ Did i miss a news article from a decent source suggesting that Covid was now spreading around hotels used for quarantine or escaping into the community via air ventilation systems??

Or is this a clutching at straws conspiracy theory of Guys?”

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ventilation-blamed-for-covid...

paging info or are you at Dandy Markets this morning?

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 8:56am

End of the day.

We know it hasn't been a problem, we know hotel quarantine has been successful tens of thousands of people passed through the system without issues.

If it was spreading by ventilation systems others in the hotel that don't have contact with infected people would be getting covid.

It's basically a what if.

I havent been following where this outbreak has come from and if they know yet?

But the possibilities of how it got into the community if from an international source as they said it seems are vast and expect this possibility would be way down the list

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 9:28am

"We know it (hotel quarantine) hasn't been a problem,"
Where the hell is that facepalm gif when you need it?

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GuySmiley Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 9:31am

The number of hospital workers that have contracted Covid world wide would suggest otherwise info.

Quarantine should be done remotely where patients and staff have access to fresh air inside well ventilated buildings as well as access to outdoor space, you know places like Howard Springs and Xmas Island.

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indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 9:54am

@Vic
Obviously wasn't talking about Victoria, we know it wasn't the hotel system itself that was the issue here but more the overseeing of how it was set up with security. (that nobody will even take responsibility for)

@Guy
You can keep banging on about Xmas island and Howards springs, but we both know Xmas island is completely unrealistic to use from a logistic point of view and would be super expensive and doesn't even hold the numbers needed and Howard springs is already being used for NT quarantine.

Again as i said the other day we all know you two are just looking for any excuses to try to find fault in how Scomo and LNP have dealt with Covid. (and looking for payback because the major stuff up so far has been by a Labor leader in Victoria)

Anyway the reality is you have little of substance because Australia is up there as one of the best in the world with dealing with Covid from both a health and economical perspective.

Off course you guys will keep trying, who knows maybe sooner or latter there might be some decent fault/failure, but so far you have nothing, and even if something does come up, it still won't change the fact of the overall success we have seen.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 10:01am

Hotel Quarantine has to be 100% accurate to be successful. I can't believe I have to explain this to you.
It's failed in Vic, SA, and NSW.
It's failed multiple times in NSW. The Ruby Princess and this episode have been the only two times there has been consequences. It was pure dumb luck community spread didn't happen earlier.

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GuySmiley Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 10:30am

Where you and I differ info is if Labor were running this shit show I would be equally critical of them. I could list all of Morrison’s fuckups here but what’s the point in your eyes he can’t do no wrong.

As a liberal voting retired neighbour of mine said yesterday, don’t criticise Scomo he gives me money ..... there’s no arguing with stupid.

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truebluebasher Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 11:32am

All states + NZ had Quarantine breakouts.
Some up to 37 at a time simply walked past the NSW cops.
NZ first breakout was a Qldurr! (Team Oz tour of Duty!)
Scomo's interstate Rydges were most common for breakouts.
WA had record randy offender...brokeout to see his girlfriend every night.
(Note: Also the first charged under Q breaches)
Vic essentially has no escapees as idiot scaled hi-rise down into the police station.

Women escapees smash up cops to bolt to the shops for clean towels / toiletries.
Many chix take out the cops & do the bolt for a desperate sneaky illegal gasp of air.
Repeat ciggie offenders...chorus same chat up line..."Last breakout...I swear, mate!"

Human Rights hammers Oz Pollies for palming off mates unrentable Creepy Coops.
NSW Hottest Tower was Evacuated then Fumigated for Pollie rorts.
Interesting that NZ service Q > on site (vs) Scomo services Q > off site (mates rorts)

Scomo Hot Hotel = No View, UV, Air or Yard Time + Not a Cheap Lousy Holiday!
Prison Isolation = Yes UV, Air, Yard Time, Free Accom + Get Paid for sitting around.
Prisoners will also get their Vax at the head of the queue while you can wait or pay!

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Quint Sunday, 3 Jan 2021 at 5:59pm

Pfft...

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 11:50am

Argh VL more clutching at straws, Ruby princess was very early days and not the Hotel quarantine system, Vic we know issues were due to mismanagement of setting up of security.

SA did we ever find out where the outbreak came from?.

Isn't NSW case source yet to be determined?

Very little in life is 100% accurate/reliable especially when you are dealing or relying on anything to do with people, there will never be a 100% fool proof system, just like there will never be a plane that doesn't have the risk of crashing or a boat that can't sink.

The current system has proven to be successful, does that mean you dont adjust and tinker where needed if issues arise?...off course not.

We all know we will always have the risk of outbreaks either that somehow the virus slips through the cracks or lay dormant in the community somehow, experts have told us this from early days, that's why we still need to be careful and minimise risk.

Thats why the way we live is called the new normal and only chance of this changing is with a vaccine.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 11:54am

"Where you and I differ info is if Labor were running this shit show I would be equally critical of them. I could list all of Morrison’s fuckups here but what’s the point in your eyes he can’t do no wrong."

Bahhhhhaaaa ha ha haaa

Seriously i cant believe you even said that.

Everyone know's that is COMPLETE garbage, only VL or maybe Facto is more bias politically than you towards Labor.

You couldn't even be critical or admit Dans fuck up in Vic which is the easily the biggest fuck up we have seen, and really the only fck up that has resulted in real issues. (a second wave in one state bigger than the first whole Australian wave)

Only people here that could say they would be just as critical of Labor are those that actually are critical of both Labor and LNP like Blowin or Sypkan and a few others.

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Vic Local Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 11:56am

"Ruby princess was very early days and not the Hotel quarantine system"
Maybe not hotel quarantine failure, just a full on quarantine failure, with the infected people just wondering out into the street and travelling all over the country spreading the virus.
"SA did we ever find out where the outbreak came from?" Yes Quarantine Hotel.
"Isn't NSW case source yet to be determined?" It's from the USA, so there's another Quarantine failure.
FFS indo, you are wilfully blind to all your beloved Liberal Party fuck ups.

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Blowin Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 12:09pm

It’s got to be asked - Is this the symptom or the cause for Manchurian Dan’s push to introduce the Belt and Road / become the New South Canton ?

“For much of the post-GFC era, the Australian economy was regarded with awe. Indeed, it has been dubbed a ‘miracle economy’. Why? It was because, alone among developed countries, Australia has experienced 29 years of unbroken nominal economic growth…

In recent years Australia’s commonwealth government has added another potent source of growth to the Australian economy. This is a commitment to a high net immigration intake. Net Overseas Migration (NOM) has been running at an annual rate of about one percent of Australia’s population. It has become a significant contributor to Australia’s 29 years of positive economic growth.

Victoria has been a great contributor. Though its share of Australia’s population is around 26 per cent, it has been absorbing some 37 per cent of Australia’s annual NOM. As we show in detail later, successive Victorian governments have reshaped the state’s economic strategy around this population boost.

For Australia, a ‘miracle economy’ indeed. But at the cost of extreme dependence on imports of manufactured goods. A brutal indicator is Australia’s increased reliance on the import of Elaborately Transformed Manufactures (ETMs). They grew (in nominal dollars) from $131.5 billion in 2007 to $215.6 billion in 2018-19. Over the same period Australia’s exports of ETMs hardly moved, with the result that the deficit on trade in ETMs reached $179.6 billion in 2018-19. This massive deficit has been covered by net exports of commodities.
Victoria is a major contributor to this deficit. In 2018-19 Victoria was responsible for $50.5 billion or 28 per cent of Australia’s total $179 billion net deficit on ETM trade. (See Table 2 below.)…

Debate about Australia’s embarrassing lack of manufacturing capacity has flourished in the post-Covid environment…

Victoria’s economic strategy has been brutally exposed by Covid-19. Though it has lost much of its manufacturing base, it has found a growth substitute stemming from rapid population increases in Melbourne and an accompanying boost to people services, housing and infrastructure industries. However, the sudden cessation of net overseas migration has threatened this business model…

Victoria’s export profile is that of a developing country. The state’s exports in primary products are worth far more than its exports of ETMs. In 2018-19, the value of these exports was $15.4 billion, mostly deriving from meat, wool, fruit and nuts, and dairy products.

Victoria is an agricultural state rather than a locus for knowledge intensive manufactures. But, even on this count Victoria is not pulling its weight. In 2018-19, Victoria imported more primary products ($16.9 billion) than it exported ($15.4 billion).

Victoria’s people servicing strategy: from Bracks to Andrews

There have been times when the catastrophe has been there for all to see. The headlines following the final days of operation of Ford, Toyota and Holden prompted brief outbursts of concern about Victoria’s manufacturing malaise.

They have been easy to ignore because Victoria’s political leaders have found a new basis for the state’s prosperity. It is a remnant of the heady cultural/hi-tech vision of the Brachs/Brumby years. It is providing for an increased population as outlined in the report: Melbourne 2030…

The Victorian government can claim that its urban growth and people servicing strategy has meant that Victoria is leading in promoting economic growth. As the Treasurer, Tim Pallas put it in his 2020-21 budget speech, despite having ‘only’ 25 per cent of the nation’s population ‘We have contributed almost a third of nation’s economic growth since 2015’…

The high-rise inner-city boom coincided with rapid expansion in the overseas student industry.

The original intention had been to attract a knowledge elite. Instead, it attracted temporary migrants. The City of Melbourne’s (COM) population exploded. Almost all of this expansion was attributable to Net Overseas Migration. Much of this in turn, reflected growth in the number of students enrolled in English language, vocational colleges and above all courses at universities.

The numbers were huge. By 2019, Melbourne University had 28,361 overseas student enrolments and there were another 18,697 enrolled at RMIT.

They contributed to a transformation of the Melbourne inner-city environment…

Victoria’s Post-Covid-19 realities

The Covid crisis has been catastrophic for Victoria.

Its business plan, dependent on providing people services and accommodation for an ever growing population, has been stopped in its tracks…

This has brutally exposed Melbourne’s vulnerabilities. The crisis spot is inner-Melbourne…

It should be obvious that Australia’s universities do not function to develop the knowledge and applied skills of Australian residents. They have become quasi-private corporations dedicated to maximising the revenue generated by the overseas student industry. This revenue is the foundation of the massive salaries paid to the top echelon of university officials, their showy campuses and their research reputations…

The prime focus – people servicing, infrastructure and accommodation

The Victorian government’s priority is the dispersal of funds to allow as many Victorians as possible to obtain employment in providing services for the State’s population and from its deepening investment in infrastructure and accommodation.

In the case of infrastructure, state investment will rise from $9.6 billion (actual) in 2019-20 to an estimated $18.5 billion in 2021-22 and $20.3 billion in 2022-23.

Additional billions are allocated for housing, in the form of subsidies and, in the case of social housing, massive capital investment.

Funds are thrown around like confetti to pay for more people services…

This surge in state activity will generate a huge gap between state revenue and expenditure…

It is the case that large numbers of Victorians have indicated their concerns about the quality of life issues generated by Melbourne’s rapid population growth. These include congestion, competition for services (as with hospitals), for access to amenity (parks and the like) and high housing prices…

Why worry?

Even on its own terms grounds Victoria’s strategy is vulnerable. There is no certainty that population growth will revive quickly…

Most of the Net Overseas Migration driving Melbourne’s growth derives from net inflows of temporary migrants, mainly overseas students. It could be several years before the influx of these students recovers. Meanwhile, Melbourne is facing an unprecedented net exodus of residents to the rest of Victoria and interstate. We have to go back to the early 1990s for a similar exodus. This was caused by the city’s deep recession at the time. It was several years before it was reversed…

Victoria’s people servicing strategy delivers dumb growth

The people servicing, accommodation and infrastructure industries all generate low growth in labour productivity. But productivity is the foundation for advances in the real income of Australian residents. The goods producing industries are the main source of these labour productivity advances. This means that Melbourne, as a people servicing city-state, must draw increasingly on the productivity deriving from activities elsewhere in Australia for advances in the real income of its residents.

There are also other direct and obvious subsidies. Melbourne’s people servicing economy depends on increased public expenditure to provide for the growing population’s health, urban amenity and other needs, much of which is paid for by the Federal government. The Commonwealth will have to step up to provide this support, just as it has done to support the Tasmanian economy over the decades.

However, Tasmania is a minnow with around 540,000 residents. Victoria, at 6.5 million, is twelve times larger. We wonder whether the rest of Australia will tolerate providing for a ‘giant Tasmania’, dependent on increased support from federal taxpayers for its exploding health, care and education needs.

There is another concern, this time related to the high costs of retrofitting an established city – as the huge price and frequent announcements of cost over-runs for the city’s tunnels and freeways attest.

Worse, such is the Andrew’s government desire to initiate new infrastructure projects that it is starting projects which may not be needed. The Suburban Rail Loop is an alarming example…

Victorians are also ultimately dependent for their affluent consumer lifestyle on the export performance of other states. Victoria makes little contribution to Australia’s export performance. As indicated, Victoria contributed only 10.9 per cent of Australia’s total exports in 2018-19. These are mainly commodities. They pay for Australia’s massive deficit on trade in ETMs which reached $179.7 billion in 2018-19. Victoria was responsible for $50.5 billion of this deficit.

Victoria is in this sense a parasite. How long will it be before Victoria is called to account on this issue by the rest of Australia?

The bottom line

Victoria is not just another, bigger Tasmania. It is the heartland of progressive political, social and cultural values in Australia. Social justice is its watchword. It supports greater rights and income support for minorities and for migrants (even those here on temporary visas) and a more open door for more immigrants, as well as gender diversity rights.

We endorse Victoria’s social justice values. However, they can only be implemented if Australia’s labour productivity continues to grow and our trade performance remains strong.

Victoria has ostentatiously rejected any responsibility to contribute to these ends. These issues are ignored in the State Budget and are never acknowledged by the Labor government or its supporters.

The Victorian government’s continued unwillingness to confront the state’s structural economic weaknesses could well tarnish its progressive population-servicing reputation. At what point does hubris around population building, urban infrastructure provision and people servicing cease to compensate for the state’s failure to modernise its economy?“

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 12:30pm

Fitzroy is right, you can't argue with morons in doing so you just become one ;(

Here is reality.

You see that peak at the start that's all of Australia, that's what you expect at the start of a pandemic when you are still learning with a once in 100 year event, every country on earth has had a similar peak when first hit by covid, although most much larger and longer, some countries first wave is still going.

See that second much larger peak, that's from one state (Victoria) from the incompetence of a state leader, who thought he knew better than everyone else and ignored offers of assistance from government to use ADF etc (but hey I'm VL im going to ignore this one because i love Labor, or maybe i can blame it on Scomo somehow?)

Yes there is a little rise at the end lets hope that it doesn't get any bigger, and yes its come at the worst time possible.

At this stage we know little about how or why, but as you can see from the graph, if you take the Victoria mess out of the picture, things have been extremely successful since we got the first wave under control.

Anyway facts don't care about about your feelings.

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fitzroy-21 Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 12:46pm

I got another one for you Indo....

"it's better to stay silent and let people think you are an idiot than to open your mouth and confirm it"

VL is the master at opening his mouth and confirming it with every post.

philosurphizingkerching's picture
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philosurphizing... Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 12:53pm

Not a Qunt wrote
Lockstep to the covid camps comrades. Enjoy.

I've been thinking about never buying anything made in China ever again.
I checked two t shirts I recently bought at K mart, both were made in China.
New lithium battery, Ozito brand made in effin China.
Am thinking of purchasing a Mavic Air Drone but won't be, now that I know it is made in bloody China. Gunna look at French or US brands.

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truebluebasher Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 1:06pm

India are very much looking into cheap cures...
https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/diagnostics/mouthwash-c...
CSIR Institute of Microbial Technology / Panjab University Study.

Chlorhexidine (Dose 0.2%) can kill 99.9% of Covid in just 30secs.

Covid colonizes the oral / teeth & nasal cavities..(These are the entry ports)
Hence why a Mask is so important but arguably for orifices that host the Covid
Chlorhexidine Mouthwash is being studied as a first line of defence.
Reducing colonization & transmission. (Note: Comes in Chewing Gum form as well)

These initial Lab results and need to be verified in Clinical Studies.
https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/diagnostics/mouthwash-c...

Note: Reply : Long term Chlorhexidine is reportedly harmful...
Alternative non toxic biocide is Molecular Iodine (I2 Cure) 12hr defence
https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/pharma/i2pure-launches-...

Study shows that Mouth Rinse can useful as a defence...(Masks Advised)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s15010-020-01563-9

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sypkan Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 1:19pm

while I'd like to support indo, because he's... you know... kinda... write

this caught my attention

"As a liberal voting retired neighbour of mine said yesterday, don’t criticise Scomo he gives me money"

an alarming number of people have echoed these very words, geez I find this thinking incredibly dumb and short sighted... often from the kind of people who should know better...

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sypkan Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 1:18pm

speaking of shortsighted and dumb... geez that little victoria breakdown is depressing reading....

that's the sort of big scale super dumbarse careless manufactured structural economic stupidity we haven't seen since... well...

howard!!

ironically enough

again...

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sypkan Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 1:30pm

good onya philosurphizing...

heard a lot of people talking like you, know of people buying and waiting for expensive old school goods online just to prevent the feeding of the beast

you can't always avoid it, but every little bit helps...

our sold out politicians have created a monster, and left us all totally vulnerable in the process, if those fuckers are reluctant to admit their failures and correct things - which largely seems to be the case - then the people need to make the required changes themselves... sadly...

some of our corrupt political class should be strung up, literally... they deserve nothing less...

but australian apathy...

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 1:38pm

Did my part yesterday bought an new ladder and ensured it wasnt made in China, missus was happy with me too :D

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truebluebasher Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 4:09pm

NSW outbreak has spread response OZ wide...(No longer a North Shore thing)
Qld are not mucking around....The Whole Central NSW is a sea of Red.
If any Qldurr so much as looks at NSW... they'll be locked out.
https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid...

As the NSW red sea spreads... all are being caught out ahead of Time.
Pretty much all south of Qld & North of Vic must queue for testing.
These interstate queues are growing by the minute in Qld / Vic.

Oz wide are working flat out thru Chrissie to curb this outbreak.(Very real alright)
Officially an East Coast Health Crisis as of now.(Yes! All in this together!)
Everyone was caught napping & the Devil just tore up Santa's Nice List.

Those in Goldie queues say they slipped thru a week ago but still must do the Test.
Reckon they never even looked out the window at the incoming Covid Tide.

Tip! If crew were anywhere in NSW in last fortnite you'd better make time for a test.
tbb is forewarning of larger Goldie Testing queues & wait time in scorching sun.
Xmas testing runs less hours so sooner is better as red sea grows more queue time.

Goldie queues are 400m long & 3hr wait under the Hot sun & growing longer.
Recommend queuing before opening times or mid arvo...as it's cooler.
https://www.goldcoast.health.qld.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19/visiting-fe...

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velocityjohnno Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 4:43pm

from yesterday:

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/you-must-stay-in-your-state-...

"In a worrying sign, at least 44 close and casual contacts connected to the cluster have been identified within Barwon Health’s catchment area after being identified at Avalon Airport. They were tested at the airport and asked to self-isolate at home while being monitored by Barwon Health’s public health unit. Barwon Health is based in Geelong but covers a wide area within Victoria’s south-west.

Barwon Health public health unit director Eugene Athan said almost 350 tests were conducted on Saturday at two community health centres in the Geelong suburb of Norlane and in Torquay. “Barwon Health has seen a significant increase in testing over the weekend at both ... testing sites, including a number of returned travellers who were in Sydney on or after 11 December,” he said.

Only one other close contact has been identified in Victoria previously, a person who went into hotel quarantine on Friday."

Also:

18th Dec:
https://www.bay939.com.au/news/local-news/123426-sydney-arrivals-screene...

19th Dec:
https://www.bay939.com.au/news/local-news/123448-barwon-health-continues...

20th Dec:
https://www.bay939.com.au/news/local-news/123467-avalon-flights-in-dange...

21st Dec:
https://www.bay939.com.au/news/local-news/123475-victoria-shuts-border-o...

Also, very difficult through SMH and Age to find out where the new cases in NSW are popping up. "15 linked to cluster" was news today, but have heard of a Foster case, was there one in Cronulla?, etc etc

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GuySmiley Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:00pm

VJ says "Also, very difficult through SMH and Age to find out where the new cases in NSW are popping up. "15 linked to cluster" was news today, but have heard of a Foster case, was there one in Cronulla?, etc etc"

.......... its no longer the paper it once was, increasing becoming a pictorial like the other one.

This headline from the Age online right now

"Scathing report exposes failures by Andrews, ministers and public servants
Proceeding with the hotel quarantine program was a decision made entirely without forward planning – despite a decade of warnings that a pandemic would one day hit Australia".

..... only trouble is Pandemic Planning and the first defence tools a country uses tp defend itself against such a threat, namely Border Control and Quarantining, are Federal Government (Morrison) responsibilities. So why link Federal Government failures to Vic Labor? sloppy journalism or deliberate Murdoch like sensationalism?

..... and try getting a comment published pointing out that error or the fact Border Force and Quarantine are Federal Govt responsibilities - impossible, the monitors started filtering those comments out a few months ago.

..... there is no doubt in my mind the Editorial standards and direction of the Age has changed since Nine News took control and under CEO Peter Costello

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:01pm

Maybe a question for tbb's research skills, what's the link between Avalon RSL, licking the dancefloor, and lots of people getting off at Avalon airport with close contact status?