COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Wrong again blowin. I'm just a bloke who calls it how I see it, and when you post a meme about Chinese people eating western babies, I'm going to call you a racist. And when you say you posted this meme in jest, I'm calling you a racist liar as well.
Hate to say it VicLocal but on plenty of occasions I've personally heard you denigrate people purely based on where they happen to live.
If the cap fits & all that....
I have but one small wish for the New Year - that we all be tolerant of one another and engage in civil discourse. What's to be gained by constant abuse? (I put my hand-up as being guilty in the past).
haha , nice sentiment D-Rex , but that reminds me of an old saying.
"wish in one hand and shit in the other, and see which one fills up first"
Full blown fascism .....here we are.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/beefed-up-powers-for-w...
D-Rex, I agree to a point. If you want to believe in flying spaghetti monsters or say the sky is green, that's fine with me.
But lines need to be drawn regarding opinions that have real consequences to others. Anti-vaxxers, covid 19 conspiracy theorists and racists need to be called out for what they are: fools who put other people's lives in danger.
I don't mind calling out, vic, but maybe it can be done sans abuse.
Stories are floating around social media about Tony Abbott allegedly ignoring social distancing laws on the northern beaches, riding into the hot zone with mates and having a coffee break where they should not have been. Let's see how this plays out.
D-Rex, I can't help it. My Mum is 80 and she worked in the medical profession for 40 years. She calls anti-vaxxers "fucking arseholes" all the time. In front of the grand kiddies too. What hope was there for me given my upbringing? I was never going to have Sunday school language etiquette.
Hey Blowin,
How do you know that the 1950’s Space Monkey is dead? Fake news.
Isn’t it the real schrodinger’s Monkey?
So in essence, the monkey is both dead and alive until we open the spacecraft?
Trippy.
Btw Vic, you could at least try.
Vic is trying. That’s the worst part.
Ping !
No , to be honest he literally doesn’t even understand the humour or how he’s promoting it. He’s the AI equivalent of Pong.
Except Pong was entertaining.
PS Well done on the Schrodinger’s Monkey
Humour like your racist memes? Here's a free tip blowin, don't put your hand up for a comedy open mic night.
OMG Pong that brings back some memories.
I remember my neighbours got Pong when i was a kid and we played it for hours, it blew us away at the time and then when Atari came out they were first to get that too.
https://m.
&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR1CZhKMofNJUNsnXuKIku0vdrrePL5dGWl6d0L2WNKyX13acomgVmnrC0AExplains it very well
18 cases today in Sydney / Gong.
If you didn't see this coming you haven't been paying attention for the last 12 months.
No mandatory masks, Christmas parties, weddings, fireworks, and Sydney has the 3rd test.
Maybe gladys should be listening to Norman Swan rather than reading her own press about "gold standards".
An average of 436 Australians die everyday from all causes combined.
This amount is unacceptable.....we should all be strapped into preservation bubbles with pumped oxygen and intravenous food for our own protection !
I’m scared !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The causes of those 436 deaths are not highly contagious and capable of exponential growth. That is the difference.
50000 people have died on Australian roads in 30 years.
Lock us up !
Average global life expectancy is 76 years.
Average global age of death WITH* Covid is 82 years.
* Less than 6 percent of all registered Covid deaths directly attributed to Covid.
Lockdown our planet now !!!!!!!
Feel the fear !
Tell me Blowin, if you caught it, would you be scared?
There’s been so much ridiculous hyperbole that I probably would be automatically cautious but the chances of Covid causing me to suffer anything as harsh as a routine bout of food poisoning are so tiny as to be negligible.
I’m exposed to much more dangerous things than Covid everyday of the week and people would literally consider me mentally ill if I feared them as much as some people would have you fear Covid.
I would be placed in an asylum if I locked myself in my house to avoid the much , much , much more likely circumstance of being injured in a traffic accident. I’d likewise be considered a fucking moron if I refused to drive a car because I was worried about hurting others . If I ran out on the road and started calling people selfish granny killers as they drove down the highway I’d be locked up and treated for being crazy.
What about yourself ? Are you scared ?
The fixation anxiety is real
Ban food !
Food is a granny killer !
oh jesus...the level of stupidity with that one.
couldn't constuct an analogous argument to save your fucken life.
Blowin is Swellnet’s Greg Norman, without the golfing ability, asset portfolio and giant cucumber down the swim shorts.
If Covid 19 was around for eons, but then gastroenteritis appeared in 2020, the fear would be the same, just reversed
What is actually happening, once judged in 500 years time, is the fear of the unknown
The numbers, that is the science, confirms the theory
The science says that CV19 isn’t going to go away. That means that anyone who doesn’t stay under lockdown for the rest of their lives agrees with me.
You’ll get used to it, trust us
all those burnt out docs and nurses in the overun uk health system should probably just stfu eh, bloody whinging poms, what would they know
Back to the simple stats, which we can look after nearly a year with this running.
Influenza US 2017/18 season (with vaccine)
Deaths/Cases = 61,000/45,000,000 = 0.00135 = 0.13%
Influenza US 2018/19 season (with vaccine)
Deaths/Cases = 34,157/35,000,000 = 0.000975 = 0.09%
So lets just take that 0.13% as worse case.
Covid 19
Deaths/Cases = 1,790,000/81,900,000 = 0.02185 = 2.18%
Covid vs Influenza
2.18/0.13 = Covid 16x more deadly.
Then there's the reproductive number making it more contagious than Influenza.
So, while we can sit here in Australia, where we've done very well and say it's nothing too bad etc, just be thankful we live in such a beautiful place and we've still got most of our freedoms.
Sure our cases look like nothing compared to the other countries, but how far do we let it run before it gets out of hand and we start heading their way. It's a fine line.
Sydney about to test out how far to let run, Craig.
Yep.
Would have much preferred the 3rd test to be at Bellerive. It's an incredibly scenic location, has a bit of that harbour feel, and I've missed the yacht race ending there.
Can still remember racing Wild Oats by car up the western side of the South Arm, stopping off to have a quick look - the boat moved so fast I had to keep going.
Craig, if it comes to it, you will get a lockdown and if you live within 5km of the beach you are incredibly likely to still be able to surf for exercise, only without everyone else allowed to access it. It's not all bad (measures distance to nearest pointbreak and smiles).
I agree, would love to watch a match down there, beautiful oval and surrounds.
Perfectly illustrates what we are saying
(And I’m suffering from the fixation too!!)
Covid 16X more deadly
I can’t be arsed on finding how many more covid comments there are on this site, and in all news, but it’s more than 16X influenza
World response about 1600X influenza
Sydney’s about to cop a massive wave for sure, without a lock match style down
Don't expect Tassie to ever host another test match. They are lucky to get 10,000 spectators for the entire match, and half of them are kids on freebies.
I'm still tipping the 3rd test will be in Melbourne with both squads not yet in Sydney. It's actually scary how badly Gladys is handling this situation. A half full SCG with fans on the beers, travelling to and from the ground and surrounding pubs. What could go wrong? It's pure madness given the new infection trends in Sydney.
Thanx Blowin...tbb does value your smarts & is most fearful...
Average life expectancy 76 years
Average life expectancy with Covid 82 years
Less than 6% attributed to Covid?
Reckon that anomaly might unearth some useful health info...
Why it's surprising is that 50-80% old patients were bumped off by vents.
tbb would bank on those figures being reversed...worth a look that is.
In fact many Medics claim life expectancy is reducing fast thru covid era...
All recall Sweden intentionally ignored Youth / Obese / Elderly from Covid Stats.
Ok! Will take your word on it...
tbb will backtrack & try to work different angles on unnerving Stats.
Kinda creepy talking about it but more creepy that others let it slide.
Be interesting to see how wide the interpretation of covid...in a fast moving crisis.
It is very macabre having to write cause of Death > Covid -19 + The Mass Graves?
Looking at the Sydney news, and growing up in neither Sydney or Melbourne and so without the parochial rivalry, what am I missing? Cases are spreading to many different postcodes yet things are being kept open? Are they confident they have tracked and isolated each case, to a level that Melbourne did not (or rather, by the time Vic realised, it was all through the lower socio-economic communities where ceasing work isn't so much an option and large families/groups live together)? Victorians seem to feel "when it got to those kind of numbers we were stuffed, heed our warning..." while some of those in NSW are saying "gold standard, exceptional, you lot are incompetent..." It's a little like the story of the Titanic, and the 'pride goeth before a fall' stuff. Who knows, maybe NSW is exceptional.
VL I'd still love to see Tassie with the test, even if there's only 10,000 there (Sydney will only get 22,000 with distancing) - the TV coverage will be watched by millions. A second test in Melbourne - nah, that wicket wasn't overly nice to the Aussies anyway...
I'd like to see some good figures on not just ages of corona deaths, but also underlying health conditions. this seems to be pretty much never mentioned
I read in a bali news source the other day that a second government minister in his 50's had recently died of corona. I was thinking... that's pretty tragic, ...seems a lot for a little island, ...and thinking poor old pollies have a bit of an occupational hazard going on... then further down the story it mentioned he died of pre existing heart and lung complications combined with corona...
definitely not enough of this more comprehensive reporting coming from the big news outlets as far as I can see
The NRL played most of the season without crowds in attendance, showing that no ones going to suffer too much from not being able to go to the footy. I'd hazard a guess that cricket fans would pull through okay if they had to watch the games on screen.
Makes me think that it's the desire not to lose out on ticketing income that is dictating public health policy on this one
VJ, That 10,000 is spread across 5 days. Crowds are pitiful in Hobart, especially after day 2.
I've traveled to Sydney a few times this year for work and it's scary how little precautions they took re covid in mid-December. Mask use on public transport was virtually non-existent. Hand shakes and hugs at parties were commonplace in Sydney while very rare in Melbourne.
One thing Sydney has got going for it is the insular nature of the place compared to Melbourne. People flock to the Melbourne CBD from all parts of the city, while in Sydney they stay in their zones much more. Eastern suburbs people socialise in the Eastern Suburbs. The shire people don't get out of the shire too much, and the northern beaches isn't called the insular peninsula for nothing.
The flow of people out of their zones ramps up big time over summer, with a mass exodus out of the big smoke to the South and North Coasts. Chuck in the Cricket, Christmas parties an NYE, and I'm predicting Sydney will be in a lock down by the end of January.
It doesn't look good when Dr Norman Swan starts getting very vocal calling for an immediate lockdown in Greater Sydney. The guy was on point re Melbourne's second wave.
You still on here talking BS moron.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/mass-crowds-at-scg-during-sydney-covid-o...
Raina MacIntyre on the 3rd test.
People travel to every point of the compass for work in Sydney. Any one telling you anything about Sydneysiders being provincial knows nothing about Sydney.
3 community transmission cases in melbs... ffs here we go again
ah well, at least it's happening before the ptsd from the first and second lockdown has fully kicked in...
It's a comparison between the two cities you dopey fucker.
And it’s entirely fanciful and wrong.
Jog on , dickhead.
"Who knows, maybe NSW is exceptional."
dare say we're about to find out
que sera sera
fuck, maybe the power of suggestion from the religion thread will have me praying soon
hey blowin, if you think vl is a bot and you keep engaging...
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia