COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

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Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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GuySmiley Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 12:39pm

spykan said

"just to be clear, I don't think morrison has done a good job. I think he's been reluctantly dragged along by the states, who have generally done a good job, and showed a willingness to act way before he did.

however, he did get the shutting borders thing right. and it's just plain delusional to think labor would have moved any earlier .....".

I agree it's highly probable that Labor wouldn't have closed the borders any earlier (I don't rate Albo highly) but I strongly disagree with the view that Morrison shut the borders at the right time.

TTB most certainly will be a better historian than me but here goes ...

AU borders closed: (1) exactly 7 weeks after 1st case detected here; (2) after the Ruby Princes (3) after Friday night footie (4) after cases recorded in most states (5) after States were given 30 hours to arrange hotel quarantine (Morrison's preferred home based self quarantine which was rejected by the states (6) after national (covid) cabinet was convened for the 1st time having seen what was happening overseas* with case numbers for months.

*The day before our borders were closed international visitors were allowed to fly in and around the country with no restrictions get in cabs or on public transport including from the US where the virus was spiking in huge numbers in states like California to the point that large public events (eg Rage Against the Machine reforming festival) had been cancelled weeks earlier.

Remember the discussions at the time around closing the borders and Morrison's desire to get all the international students in and not wanting to upset the CCP if we closed the Chinese out? Remember the national Covid guidelines coming into place on the Monday or Tuesday after the Friday night when Morrison went to the footie?

We all know every day is important when it comes to the virus and in my opinion Morrison acted 4-6 weeks too late and in closing the borders gave the States the hospital hand pass of hotel quarantine.

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truebluebasher Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 12:54pm

Just as Oz, Qld has hard borders & equally represents as a state on top of it's game.
However this is a misconception as the opposite rings true & is never reported.

NZ + Federal + all State Govts run a FREE app [QR] Code for Contact Tracing.
States secure then destroy personal app data after 1 month.
States also naturally offer alternative Print out Contact forms for venues

All this Contact Tracing info differs but is secured by States as a whole to share.
Most Nations would rate that as a win, with room for improvement...All say Aye!

However there is a Glitch & a pretty fucking big Glitch that all ignore!

We Qldurrz have never secured or offered a FREE Contact Tracing app.
https://www.pulseitmagazine.com.au/australian-ehealth/5846-all-states-an...
Qld Contact tracing venues mostly rely on a foreign (NZ) app.
Free trial (14 days) > $20 month.(Service is cut if a bill is missed)...What was that?
https://guesthq.com.au/pricing
Note: NZ flyby currently hold Qld Contact Tracing to ransom during this outbreak.
PIZZA shop don't Pay up his $20 ...you get a free Pandemic (Nothing personal Cuz!)
(C'mon Dutto! Kiwi spy network extorting Govt Contact data sovereignty)...A crime!

Qld advertises a 2 month free citizen data bank to Kiwis or Chinese...please take it!
Govt use any app at all & only now claim to be working on a [QR] code.
Govt mandate locks all into 1 year private contracts + likely bill for a switch to Govt.

Ok tbb but venues can simply comply with a Qld Govt Contact Tracing Form...durr!
Yeah! You'd think & wish it were that simple...where else but Queensland!
Qld Govt has never supplied or offered a Print Out Contact Tracing Form...(Ever!)

23rd Wed- Contract Tracing Forms of any kind are branded illegal in Qld.

Oh Yes! Qld Police State Powers are needed....dddon't you wworry 'bout that!
Joh's Law is back...Writing on paper is again illegal in Qld...(tbb has one strike!)
"Drop that fully loaded biro punk!"..."Stand back she's got a Clipboard!"

Conspiracy Nutters 1 Govt 0...Complete Covid Digitization now Mandated in Qld.

No more autographs at Surf Clubs.( Club or Patron needs a [QR] borg upgrade).
tbb has no mobile phone for a mosh or Parmi & mash...

Wed: Premier mandates a Foreign private billing of Qldurrz own emergency data.
Govt also strongly defend the [f] [Sign now] Ransom Blocks over Premiers Alerts.
That's right! Our Premier once again mandated National Security Ransom.

Qldurr tbb is ashamed to share state's sell out during outbreak.
Big believer in backing our frontline off the edge off that there cliff..,
Luv to help NSW... but you can see we Qldurrz are busy tying ourselves up in knots.

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zenagain Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 1:17pm

Ha ha! Queensland couple shot dead. Later to be found carrying a replica biro and counterfeit clipboard.

Do you feel lucky today punk?!

Well- do ya'?

Nice TB.

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Supafreak Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 5:04pm

WHY DO THE HEALTH BUREAUCRATS STILL REFUSE TO LISTEN ?

Five months ago, Professor Thomas Borody MB, BS, BSc(Med), MD, PhD, DSc, FRACP, FACP, FACG, AGAF, FRS(N) said:

"We have a therapy that can fight COVID-19. The medications have been around for 50 years, they are cheap, FDA and TGA approved, and have an outstanding safety profile. Why are we just waiting around for a vaccine? To save lives we should be using whatever is safe and available right now. We could lead the world in this fight. The three medications are on chemist shelves right now.

"An Ivermectin tablet can cost as little as $2 - which could make it by far the cheapest, safest, and fastest cure for Australians and the Australian economy. This needs to be available for aged care facilities and frontline health workers today.

"The Government could end the pandemic by openly encouraging GPs to prescribe these TGA approved medications. Those who test positive, are identified in contact tracing, as well as those in high-risk groups like the elderly and healthcare workers, can then access the therapy quickly,"

‘’There is mounting worldwide clinical literature pointing to a 100% cure rate using Ivermectin Triple Therapy."

https://prwire.com.au/pr/91367/ivermectin-triple-therapy-protocol-for-co...

But he was not only ignored, the Medical Swamp came after him and threatened him into silence.

Miranda Devine wrote this article over 5 months ago, I wonder how many have unnecessarily died since.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/miranda-devine-local-doct...

Imagine if a renowned Australian gastroenterologist invented an effective, cheap, readily available treatment for COVID-19 and his own country ignored him.

That’s what has happened to Professor Thomas Borody, who is famous for inventing a cure for the bacterial infection which causes peptic ulcers, saving millions of lives around the world.

This time Dr Borody, of Sydney’s Centre for Digestive Diseases, has found a promising treatment for COVID-19 using Ivermectin, a drug that has been used safely to treat parasitic infections for half a century. He combines it in a “triple therapy” with zinc and the antibiotic Doxycycline to attack the virus from multiple angles.

Clinical trials on his Ivermectin ­triple therapy are underway in 32 countries and are about to start in California. Dr Borody says the trick is “treating patients very early”, within seven days of onset, before the virus spreads through their organs and makes them sick.

Already results using the drug off-label have been promising.

In Bangladesh, 400 patients with mild to moderate symptoms were treated and 98 per cent cleared the virus within four to 14 days.

In the Dominican Republic, in 1300 patients the average duration of infection fell from 21 days to 10 days.

Mortality in already sick patients at Broward County Medical Centre in Florida dropped by 48 per cent. The results have been so remarkable that the government of the most populous Indian state, Uttar Pradesh, last week approved the use of Ivermectin for COVID-19 patients and also as a prophylactic for health workers.

Dr Borody calls Ivermectin a “wonder drug”. But ever since he ­received the positive preliminary ­results of the overseas trials, he has been banging his head against a brick wall trying to get someone in Australia to take notice.

He has sent letters to the Morrison government and the Victorian government, urging them at least to make Ivermectin available to high-risk patients and as a preventive dose for frontline workers. “I wrote to the federal and state governments,” he said on the weekend.

“I wasn’t even responded to … It got to a certain level of the fortress, but I don’t think it got to the decision- makers. You can see how frustrating it is, whereas a big state of India says let’s use it. If nothing else, make it available in aged care homes immediately. Our elderly are at the highest risk and this is a very safe option, ­especially when we have nothing else except ventilators.”

He points out Ivermectin is on the on the World Health Organisation’s list of essential medicines, and has been safely used since 1975 to treat parasitic infections such as river blindness and head lice.

In fact, US President Donald Trump uses Ivermectin in cream form to treat the skin condition rosacea, ­according to his White House health records.

Dr Borody says he may absorb enough through his skin to protect him, despite people around him at the White House becoming ill.

But despite the drug’s proven ­safety record and promising results on COVID-19, “the government in Australia — and the US — does not have a curative plan”. It’s all about lockdowns and vaccines.

And because no “no large company is pushing it,” says Borody, the government won’t listen.

“Not only is it too good to be true, it’s cheap” he says. An Ivermectin tablet can cost as little as $2.

“This isn’t going to make money for anyone. It just needs a doctor to write a script,” he said.

And therein lies the problem. The pharmaceutical industry doesn’t like cheap off-patent drugs such as Ivermectin because they don’t reap huge profits in the way that new drugs and vaccines do.

The demonisation of the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine is a case in point.

After President Donald Trump ­described it as a promising treatment, “maybe a game-changer” for COVID-19 at a March 19 press conference at the White House, the media derided him as a quack and discredited the drug.

The negative publicity played into the hands of Big Pharma, who stand to make tens of billions from vaccines and new drugs. Hydroxychloroquine’s main competitor is the new antiviral Remdesivir, developed by pharmaceutical giant Gilead Sciences, which charges $US3120 per ­treatment.

Trump also praised Remdesivir at that press conference. Yet all the ­attacks afterwards were against ­hydroxychloroquine, while Remdesevir got a free pass. And, of course, the drug companies had the financial ­incentive to discredit hydroxychloroquine and the lobbyists to advance their interests.

Dr James Todaro, one of a group of rebel physicians calling themselves America’s Frontline Doctors, points out that Gilead’s stock plummeted after Trump’s press conference, wiping $21 billion off its market cap. The share price only recovered six weeks later after a promising clinical trial.

The jury is still out on hydroxychloroquine. But the campaign against it has been ferocious. Doctors can’t get results of studies published, and social media censors mention of the drug. A flawed study on a small sample of very sick US Veterans ­Affairs patients received enormous publicity before it was debunked. Positive studies were buried.

Two prestigious medical journals, The Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine, had to retract a paper which used bogus data supplied by a shadowy company to discredit the drug.

The damage was done. Clinical trials stopped. WHO temporarily withdrew support for the drug.

In New York, hydroxychloroquine is banned for COVID use.

In Switzerland, where it was banned from May 27 until June 11, ­Politico reports this week that daily COVID fatalities jumped markedly during that period.

Whether or not it turns out to be effective against COVID-19, no drug has been more unjustly maligned.

Dr Borody is anxious that Ivermectin doesn’t meet the same fate.

Without any institutional backing, he has joined forces with California researcher Dr Sabine Hazan, founder of Ventura Clinical Trials, to fund trials themselves, at around $3500 per patient.

Dr Hazan said on Sunday that she is “hopeful this is going to be a gamechanger for COVID-19”. But she is at pains to point out there is no “one pill solution” for everyone.

If the trials go well, with expedited FDA approval, the Ivermectin triple therapy could be on the market in blister packs before Christmas. That’s for patients in America. Australia will have to wait.

https://www.ausdoc.com.au/news/dr-thomas-borody-why-he-wants-gps-prescri...

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Vic Local Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 5:13pm

WHY DO THE HEALTH BUREAUCRATS STILL REFUSE TO LISTEN ?
Because there's no clinical tests proving any of your miracle cures are effective or safe. Rather than cry about quack treatments not being approved, why don't you just buy these drugs off the internet and self administer? Inject bleach, ingest lice medicine, take malaria pills, and shove a torch up your arse for the UV dose.

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batfink Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 5:40pm

Supafreak, see earlier comments. Ivermectin etc is a treatment, not a cure. If it was a cure, it would be all over. Said doctor you are championing is not being silenced by media, he is stating something that isn’t tested and proven. You refer to trials for this. That is proof that it isn’t tested yet. The way to test it is to do tests. They call them trials. So what you are asking for, if those articles and your comments are correct, is what is actually happening.

There have been many, many treatment options anecdotally experimented around the world. Every doctor and nurse has tried everything available when a patient’s life is on the line. The Ivermectin is quite late actually, word was going around the world in March and April whenever anyone found something that ‘seemed’ to help.

Again, not a cure, a treatment. Different thing.

VJ, you mentioned about whether the health officials can override politicians. There is a body, I think made up of the Chief Health Officer and all the States CHOs and a few other, who have authority when a pandemic or other health emergency is called for them to make decisions (for the pollies to argue about how to carry them out). I’m not clear on exact lines of responsibility and at what point something is called as a health emergency, but once it is a different line of responsibility and decision making takes place, with health officials making the call on things.

I don’t think that was for quarantine as that is written into the constitution for the feds, so legislation cannot override that. For that I think they would make a very strong recommendation.

Re the timing of border closures, note that Ardern beat us to the punch by a margin, maybe a week, someone can look it up. I’m glad she did as my comment at the time was that it would put pressure on Morrison to do the same.

I thought everyone was late on everything. I couldn’t believe people were allowed to get ON the Ruby Princess, let alone come back in without quarantine. That last voyage was the voyage of the damned, before it left.

Having said that a bunch of scientists also got on a ship to Paraguay around the same time. They should have known better.

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Supafreak Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 5:46pm

Batfiink , no where have I made a claim this is a cure , it’s a treatment that is saving lives and protecting frontline workers , not all frontline workers have the proper PPE for the work they do and many have died because of this . This story is 5 months old , the other links I have sent in earlier posts are from December

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Supafreak Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 6:37pm

Makes you wonder why so many leading specialists in their field who are also frontline ICU doctors are recommending this treatment ,Dr Borody is certainly no quack and neither are the FLCCC team of worldwide doctors. Why aren’t governments investing in these trials ? These doctors are fighting red tape and no funding the data is coming in from around the world.Dr.Kory had it the first time back in May when he recommended steroids which was eventually given the ok and has proven to be extremely benafical . So this is his new recommendation which is laid out in I MASK protocol, ivermectin is only part of it and everything varies depending on patients condition. His protocol is far better than Dr.Dick Vocal

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Supafreak Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 6:37pm

Makes you wonder why so many leading specialists in their field who are also frontline ICU doctors are recommending this treatment ,Dr Borody is certainly no quack and neither are the FLCCC team of worldwide doctors. Why aren’t governments investing in these trials ? These doctors are fighting red tape and no funding the data is coming in from around the world.Dr.Kory had it the first time back in May when he recommended steroids which was eventually given the ok and has proven to be extremely benafical . So this is his new recommendation which is laid out in I MASK protocol, ivermectin is only part of it and everything varies depending on patients condition. His protocol is far better than Dr.Dick Vocal

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 6:37pm

Makes you wonder why so many leading specialists in their field who are also frontline ICU doctors are recommending this treatment ,Dr Borody is certainly no quack and neither are the FLCCC team of worldwide doctors. Why aren’t governments investing in these trials ? These doctors are fighting red tape and no funding the data is coming in from around the world.Dr.Kory had it the first time back in May when he recommended steroids which was eventually given the ok and has proven to be extremely benafical . So this is his new recommendation which is laid out in I MASK protocol, ivermectin is only part of it and everything varies depending on patients condition. His protocol is far better than Dr.Dick Vocal

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sypkan Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 6:53pm

well I agree guysmiley, morrison was super late to the party, and I think you will find comments from me on here in absolute disbelief at how slow oz was in taking action. as I had just caught several flights through and back from indo, over a period of a couple of months, returning the last time, just weeks before oz finally woke up to what was actually going on in the rest of the world. denpassar airport got more and more stringent over this period, slowly, but impressively, getting their shit together... yet on my second return to oz, 'border security' here was a fucking joke, ...still...

we were put to shame by a third world country, absolutely shamed in the highest order... and morrison was still spruiking himself as being a tough guy and going to the footy, it was bloody unbelievable after what I'd just seen and been reading

but then he did act, and swiftly, and said a couple of mildly impressive statements as well

...meanwhile the guardian and co. were still carrying on with their ridiculousness...

that's pretty much the extent of morrison getting it right, the rest of his shitshow has been a joke...

as I said, the states dragged him kicking and screaming along with the rest of it, and his economic plan was, and still is, a 'bridge' to nowhere...

as to bagging dan andrews, it's not some skynews 'get dan' pile on. it's genuine disbelief at him turning his back on the public service (formerly 'labor's bread and butter'), in their time designed to shine, and dan generally selling out oz big time... some on here (not you) praised melbourne, and dan's agenda, as oz's 'engine room' and as a 'shining diamond' ...or some other statements of the ridiculous...

but blowin's post above, shows that all to be the hollowest of PR marketing spin bullshit, the cunt sold the whole country short, ...in so many ways... he's not alone in his dance with the devil, but he is most certainly the biggest 'all in' offender...

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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 6:58pm

"Re the timing of border closures, note that Ardern beat us to the punch by a margin, maybe a week, someone can look it up. I’m glad she did as my comment at the time was that it would put pressure on Morrison to do the same."

Not a week, less than 24hrs earlier..

NZ closed borders on the 19th March at midnight, Australia on the 20th March at 9pm

USA & Canada on the 18th March

BTW. I think its important to note that Australia was denying entry to travellers from China as early as January

But the WHO was actually saying we shouldn't be doing this.

Here is a flashback from early Feb

"WHO Chief Urges Countries Not to Close Borders to Foreigners From China

GENEVA - The director-general of the World Health Organization is urging countries not to close their borders to foreigners traveling from China, in response to the coronavirus epidemic in that country. More than 17,000 cases, including 361 deaths have been confirmed in China.

The WHO chief made his appeal at the opening of the agency’s Executive Board, which meets annually to set WHO health policy.

The United States, Australia, Singapore and a growing number of other countries are denying entry to foreigners traveling from China in an effort to limit the spread of the deadly coronavirus.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says 151 cases of the disease and one death have been confirmed in 23 countries outside China. He says this small number of cases can be managed without countries resorting to extreme measures.

"There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent. WHO stands ready to provide advice to any country that is considering which measures to take,” Tedros said.

https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/who-chief-ur...

If blame is to be placed for the whole world closing borders too late, the blame should be laid on the WHO and China.

China should never allowed the virus to escape and the WHO should have been telling countries to close borders to China and close borders full stop, but they were saying the opposite.

Maybe they didn't want to upset China?

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sypkan Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 7:37pm

and that is what impresses me about adern, ...a 'lefty' that is willing to go against some of the ridiculous assumed positions of 'the left'...

she did it with border closure, and she did it with the christchurch shooting

much respect!

(...without the usual mindless fawning and yearning...)

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sypkan Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 7:25pm

the WHO....

pffffffffffftttttt!!

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JQ Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 7:29pm

Has Dan Andrews moved up to your No. 1 enemy spot sypkan?

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sypkan Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 7:43pm

...not really ...I still kinda like the guy...

and as I've said many times on here (not that the 'triggered' ones ever seem to notice...), he comes across as competent at least...

he's just surrounded by corruption of the highest order, and I'm not just talking about aldi bags of cash...

do you like him jq?

are you a vicco?

you see no issue with his belt n road initiative and wider agenda?

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JQ Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 8:01pm

I dunno, I don't mind Dan. He seems competent to me, he should've done better at taking responsibility after his government stuffed up the hotel quarantine stuff. He shouldn't have done what appeared (but may not have been) to be avoiding inquiry and questioning. How ever, it is undeniable that his government dealt with a difficult second wave better than practically anywhere else in the world.

And what corruption is that sypkan, considering said aldi bag was in NSW, not Vic...

The belt and road thing isn't his initiative, it's China's. Dan signed a non legally binding MOU, it's little more than a bit of political fluff, it doesn't bind anyone in Australia to change a single thing they do, at all.

Whilst many, including myself, disagree with the way the economy has been structured by state and federal governments, that is how it is and many do (or did at least) agree with it and all he did was sign a non binding memorandum of understanding with our largest trading partner, this would have generally been considered by many as a good economic move.

Certainly some pretty sinister stuff going down with it in other more vulnerable countries.

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sypkan Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 11:39pm

well there's been aldi bags everywhere jq, right across australia, only a fool or the complicit would deny that, it's the way of the world, with some 'cultures' being much more better at it than others, ...and much more ingrained in it than others...

it's beyond unfortunate that certain 'beliefs' from both sides of politics have enabled this to flourish and become ingrained in australia... way beyond unfortunate!

but that really is the tip of the iceberg, the corruption I'm mainly referring to is corruption of process, of principles, of ideals, of resposibilities, of academia, ..and 'research' generally...

people keep saying this belt and road thingy is '...just an MOU...', but sorry mate, it's much more than that, it has already influenced policy for years, and it locks that influence in for decades to come...

it's a scam and a sham that should have never gotten to the level of influence it has, it shouldn't have ever got off the ground at all...

and post corona, it is just plain preposterous and beyond belief that dandrews is stIll pushing so hard to keep it going

the guy's a complete fuckstick, if not a competent likeable one....

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Supafreak Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 9:23pm
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Vic Local Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 9:28pm

"Early in the pandemic at the first meeting of Scott Morrison’s national cabinet ­– the rolling summit of the state and territory leaders – according to a source close to the meeting, the states were shocked when the Prime Minister came to the meeting with no quarantine plan.

I am told that’s when Mr Andrews, with the support of the other state and territory leaders, agreed to set up and pay for hotel quarantine."

Did the states have any option other than pick up the ball Scumo dropped?

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/12/22/paul-bongiorno-scott-morrison...

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sypkan Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 11:27pm

"Did the states have any option other than pick up the ball Scumo dropped?"

I think you've made that point...

over and over...

again...

has anyone disputed that point?

not that I can recall...

did dandrews have a plethora of options to facilitate this imposed need without taking the most over the top, neoliberal, privatised, lnp playbook model out of all the other states?

...all the states including the liberal party run states?!

yes

...the labor, the (labour) party... the vicco supposedly most 'progressive' labor state government in australia... chose the most privatised, public service ignoring, neoliberal, jobs for mates outsourcing, responsibility shifting, lnp dirtbag model out of all the states to deal with the problem...

and that model has been proven convincingly, by a millions of dollars blame shifting, responsibility dodging, leadership MIA inquiry, to have been the source of all the problems that affected the whole country...

but in your eyes... vic labor all good...

bemusing and bewildering...

to say the least

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truebluebasher Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 2:05am

Covid, like scabies infests the crowded elderly
Ivermectin has long been the most popular drug dosed in crowded age care
If all were dosed with Ivermectin then why all the covid outbreaks in aged care?

Crew can compare the current Medicare Ivermectin dosage
Scabies Dose (70kg) 3 x 6mg (3 weeks) in Oz aged Care Homes.(1.16mg /day)

MDGH Prof' Sullivan (Review) Covid dose needs to be 10 > 30x standard dose.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/human-trials-begin-despite-warnings-abou...

Note Feds do not approve lone Ivermectin for Covid + also cut down Combo dose.

Rare score for the Crew : Shh! (Grading of all treatments)
Australian guidelines for the clinical care of people with Covid-19 External Review.
https://app.magicapp.org/#/guideline/L4Q5An/section/L0OPkj

9 Dec 2020
Trial Blister pack dose is said to replicate Oz dose but Oz GP brew is watered down
Pack- Ivermectin 3 x 12mg / 3 days (vs) GP Trial 2 x days 1&4 (Max Oz will push!)
Pack- Doxycycline 200mg / 5 days (vs) GP Trial 100mg / 10 days (Cut side effects?)
Pack- Zinc 50mg /14 days (vs) GP Trial Zinc + vC + vD /10 days (Cut 4 days cure)

Possible 10 day (vs) 14 day Quarantine brew for arrivals (Less Cost / Risk?)
Strange reason to trial this brew with so many last minute combo changes...
Very specific & fussy handful of ingredients...someone has a set agenda...for sure!
tbb would go as far to say that some geek is brewing a perfectly measured formula.
Also note this formula was ahead of the field by months...clever Oz Lab monkeys.

Reads more like a slick Supermarket Multi Vitamin Combo...
Ivermectin is capped & extremely limited in Combo's Covid defence role!
Disguised lowering of Doxycycline + C/D/Zinc trial is in keeping with latest science.
https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/can-vitamin-d-vitamin-c-zinc-or-oregan...
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346693292_Zinc_Vitamin_D_and_Vi...

For better Science (InvM /Hydroxy / Doxy Studies reviewed)
https://forbetterscience.com/2020/12/15/ivermectin-now-against-covid-19-...

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Supafreak Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 3:34am

Excellent work TBB you are a machine when it comes to finding links’s. I liked reading everything particularly the last one which when going through the comments has more links . It’s certainly a talked about topic around the world. I’m of for a surf down the coast now , conditions looking good and hopefully some clean empty beachies.

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Fliplid Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 6:46am

You never cease to amaze me tbb. You're definitely one of Swellnets treasures

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udo Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 10:14am

.

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GuySmiley Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 10:32am

VicLocal & Sypkan discuss "Did the states have any option other than pick up the ball Scumo dropped?"

Well in my book there should have been a uniform fuck off Scomo that's your day job and go away and do it.

So of all the unanswered questions I have about Australia's Covid response that is at the very top of the list for me, why did the states (all) take on this Commonwealth responsibility? This has been a monumental fuckup from that moment onwards.

Interesting TTB posted the link to the Commonwealth Government's pandemic plan (updated Sept 2019) the other day and nowhere could I find the Commonwealth taking on quarantine responsibilities - why? is my 2nd question.

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Pops Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 11:22am

The insular peninsula gets a Christmas present...
The area north of narra bridge and east of the Bahai temple is cut off - no-one allowed in or out - over Christmas.
The downside: only allowed up to 5 people in a household.

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sypkan Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 12:40pm

"Well in my book there should have been a uniform fuck off Scomo that's your day job and go away and do it."

I agree guysmiley

again...

I like it when we agree, it should have been a big strong fuck off

"So of all the unanswered questions I have about Australia's Covid response that is at the very top of the list for me, why did the states (all) take on this Commonwealth responsibility? This has been a monumental fuckup from that moment onwards."

because he bought them... I guess...

I think it comes back to something I suggested months ago, the hotel quaratine was a brain fart to prop up the struggling high end hotel chains. it also would have appeared a good idea to prop up the wider tourism, hospitality, catering fields.

the states compliance was bought, I'd like to know if it was worth it? ...maybe, maybe not...

significant cash was flowing no doubt, but geez it's created some problems. problems that all evidence would suggest, could have been best avoided or better dealt with in an old school isolation solution

it doesn't really have to be christmas Is. or NT. anywhere, ...and I mean absolutely anywhere!! ...would be better than city cbd's...

I can think of a good spot near every single city that would have been far better than city central hotels

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Vic Local Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 12:11pm

What would have been the consequences if the states told scumo to fuck off? The planes were landing when this was happening. Turning them around was not an option, which leaves home detention as a last resort. As much as scumo deserved to be told to fuck off, it wasn’t a viable option. And 9 months on we still have the fragile quarantine system because scumo has still done fuck all to fix it.
He’s just like the shit boss who likes to take credit for shit he doesn’t do and blame others for shit he should have done.

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sypkan Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 1:26pm

well personally I think it should have been home isolation with gps tracking or home d. bracelets.

I suspect the government was too chicken to take this route as it seems so draconian, or un-australian, or something...

months and months into this shitstorm, after various draconian and un-australian lockdowns etc. that decision is looking rather dumb

no other country has the hotel quarantine as far as I'm aware, and people from other countries I've talked to see it as quite bizarre, over the top, and dare I say... nanny state nonsense...

I think it should be home d. bracelets now, asap!

most aussies seem open to it now, 1 year in. I've talked to many people OS who are not coming back to australia any time soon because of the hotel quarantine system, because of cost, but also because of the thought of being locked up in a hotel...

it's fucken dumb, draconian, human rights denying, and just not that effective

it may have been ok as a stop gap measure initially, but now, 1 year in, with it's many problems, it's just unfathomable how it's still even an option

ozzie apathy...

again...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 2:06pm

"I think it should be home d. bracelets now, asap!"
There's just the little issue of needing tens of thousands of units and a small army to monitor they are being used correctly.
And then of course these bracelets don't stop others visiting people in quarantine.
sypkan, you haven't thought this through mate, but hey, conservatives like you will always go for simple "solutions" to complex problems.

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sypkan Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 2:41pm

.

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sypkan Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 2:40pm

'conservatives' ...sigh...

if Im a conservative in your eyes... Im happy with that label... better than being a RW neoliberal stooge...

yes, that's you shinkansen!

if you make the fines substantial, with no tolerance, one strike and you're done, then it will take less of an army than your mate's neoliberal privatised rent a cop abortion...

yeh it might require a REAL public service, and REAL police to enforce it (...once upon a time labor's 'bread and butter' btw...) but would probably require less staff than the mess you are defending

yes there would be an issue with visitors, but contrary to you nanny state thought police proclivities... most people do actually want to do the right thing

you are a shining example of why oz takes the dumb, expensive, over policed, lowest common denominator nanny state nonsense route for just about everything...

your delusioal hubris, and unwarranted and totally misplaced disdain for the general populous is toxicity in so many ways...

you are the dunning kruger effect

...in full effect!

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Vic Local Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 2:55pm

Breath sypkan, BREEEEEATH.
But to be fair on you sypkan, bringing an unworkable non-solution to the table is more than what Scumo has done. He's brought fuck all to the table for a whole year. Just like Aged Care.
Which leaves quarantine policy with whatever the states can cobble together. A system destined to fail.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 3:40pm

Im honestly curious what you guys think the government should have done?

Can we start with agreeing that transferring them to Xmas isle or this NT centre is completely unrealistic?.???..surely we can agree on this???

So what were the other options?

Portable buildings like used on mines?, set up somewhere?

Caravan parks with cabins?

Ankle bracelets at home?

God can you seriously imagine the uproar with all of the above.

Those options would never have be good enough for most Australians, the media and Labor would have had a field day, people would have compared it to detention centres, they would have had to have barbwire fences and security etc.

And there would always be teething issues, would have been a silly move from the government, would have opened them up to all kinds of issues and easy attack.

As it was people complained hotels were not good enough, but atleast people complaining about hotels, is kind of like....meh...anyone who complains about quality of an Aussie hotel....its kind of like pretty trivial stuff.

As for the government trying to do it all themselves, it would have been very silly to try, taking on way to much at once...FFS you have states and leaders of states for a reason.

Government and state are like a business, government up top, state below, just like a big store that has management overseeing everything but them managers for different departments.

People like you guys are always going whinge, but the government have, made the right decision, you guys would have had a field day with any other options.

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GuySmiley Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 3:40pm

Back to VicLocal's and Sypkan's recent comments. Home quarantine wouldn't have been in favour with premiers as I think you will find at the time the Portsea Aspen Skiers group (who meant to be home in isolation) had just spread the love all over the eastern and south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Home quarantine anyway IMO isn't /wasn't the answer no matter how many electronic devices used as it doesn't stop visitors (family, friends, Uber Eats etc). We need to remind ourselves here not only did Morrison not bring any quarantine solutions to the table he was also refusing to exercise his power to close the borders, had he closed the borders earlier or that day pretty much the demand for hotel quarantine wouldn't have existed.

People think Morrison is a joke and his lack of meaningful action on anything important is a national tragedy but he isn't stupid, political cunning in spades so he knew what he was going at those first meetings with the premiers - so why did they fall for it?

Borders and Quarantine are Morrison's responsibilities but if some health crisis leaks from either as it did with Covid suddenly its the State's health departments that have to deal with it ... Morrison IMO rolled the dice against the states and Australia's best interests so he could deny political responsibility but again, didn't the premiers see the trap?

I would have thought the answers to these questions are important so the country is better prepared when the next pandemic hits regardless who is in power.

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sypkan Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 3:58pm

and what have you brought to the table? ...ever?

...besides dogma, braindeadness, brainwashedness, and name calling...

you are the most uninspiring, toe the line, full conformist, dogmatic yeller, thought policing, supposed surfer I have ever experienced...

what happened to you?

seriously, you come across as not a well unit

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sypkan Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 5:06pm

I agree it wasn't acceptable at the begining indod, but you ask people now, would you prefer 2 weeks in a cbd hotel quarantine plague circulation unit, or 2 weeks at home with an ankle bracelet?

...geez you couldn't lock me in that home d. bracelet quick enough, even if hotel quarantine was free...

fuck, I'd pay for the bracelet!

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 4:13pm

and besides, Im pretty sure singapore or taiwan make citizens quarantine at home, with gps tracking. you could hardly say they have been a disaster ...certainly not worse than dan's disaster...

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 4:56pm

[Breaking News] Qantas Crew Case
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9081585/Qantas-flight-attendant...
18th Friday > 20th Sunday -(Home Isolation crewman- was he spreading thru Sydney?)
Sun Test [+] Tuesday (re: New Crew Rules) Crewman is now in Quarantine under Police Watch.
https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/qantas-responds/statement-on-cabin-cre...

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 4:10pm

using accomodation within 2-3 hours of any city would have been the smartest thing to do, and some regional towns would have lapped it up

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 4:13pm

"didn't the premiers see the trap?"
I think every single premier completely understood Scumo was handing them a political shit sandwich, but if they didn't eat it, the consequences on the Australian public would have been catastrophic. Also the states would be picking up the pieces of a health crisis if they didn't chow down on Scumo's turd focaccia.
Premiers also understand that playing politics during the pandemic would have political consequences for them, so they didn't arc up at Scumo.
I also firmly believe that premiers know the Australian voting public has a very short political memory, and revenge is a dish best served cold.
When the next Federal election comes around, expect some staggering leaks that show Scumo as a manipulative arsehole who puts his interest ahead of Australia's. And no amount of photo ops with cubbies, chicken coups, curries, and in board shorts will hide Scumo's true character.

synchrodogcal's picture
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synchrodogcal Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 4:35pm

"Caravan parks with cabins?"

what about a 2 week camping holiday near the mythical victorian 'secret' lefthander

just like in the old days

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 4:54pm

Too close to the gentry these days, one mustn’t upset them .... and it’s in Greg Hunt’s electorate, can’t risk a loss of votes!

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 4:57pm

@ sypkan

The ankle bracelet would be weird, but id be 100% cool with it if it meant i could go to Indo, but it wouldn't go down well with the media and public, just having a vaccination out there so quick scares people.

It would be like throwing petrol on a fire for all those that say we are turning into a dictatorship or something.

Plus what Guy says is true, it still doesn't stop people visiting, i dont think things would work as well as in Singapore or Tawain, those people are pretty disciplined, if it was allowed in Australia, guys would be getting their mates to buy bottles of piss or slabs of beer ad inviting people to come around and drink with them.

As much as id be in favour of the idea and much prefer it to sitting in a hotel for two weeks, i don't think it's realistic.

Hotels a few hours from city.....yeah okay, that's realistic but, you need decent size hotels which are not as common in regional areas.

Plus I would have assumed it's better to have one hotel with 300 people in quarantine than three hotels with 100 each in quarantine.(numbers just an example only)

You would assume easier to oversea protocol need, staff etc if using least number of hotels possible.

I don't really see any real advantages.

Im assuming the idea is around possibility of virus escaping out air ducks or something?...really its just a theory and no evidence to suggest its happened, and to have this type of advantage you still need to find hotels outside of built up areas even in regional areas.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 5:58pm

the problem with cbd is, if there's a problem, it turns into a disaster that can lock a whole city or state down, as we have seen. I'm thinking a nice avoca coastal caravan park cabin with access to the point would be nice...

or perhaps use the whole northern beaches area, nice and easy to isolate and lock down should something go wrong...

jokes

any regional town could be used, with a mix of caravans, cabins, and hotels possibly. that way if people must pay then can choose according to their budget and needs, some regional towns would jump at the opporrunity

one thing corona has made clear, in so many ways, is the ever widening class divide. hotel quarantine has shown this explicity, with princesses complaining about substandard accomodation and food, and some families paying for accomodation they cannot afford

really the northern beaches, manly central, or say even phillip island, or a section of mornington peninsula (quarantines?) would be ldeal really. an army base perhaps like endinburgh near adelaide. or straddy island for brisso. the options are endless really... just needs a little creative thought... which defo seems to be lacking... in so many ways...

yes I'm well aware the gentry and gentrification of some of these places make them unrealistic, but Im just pointing out the geographical advantages that we used to take advantage of under such circumstances

realistically, ki in SA, and the straddies in Qland , rotto in WA, a little highend harbourside enclave in sydney, would be absolutely ideal, even in the modern context

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 5:32pm

BTW. Indo & Singapore etc now trying to keep this new more contagious strain of Covid out of their countries.

So going to be even harder for Aussies to get to Indo now. (at least until this strain ends up in Indo)

Cut and pasted from elsewhere, (decent source, and already seen story on TV about this with Singapore now)

"Heads up!
Visa agents have been informed that certain nationalities will get their visa (new) requests denied by imigrasi (if you already received your visa you will be fine). The current list:
- UK
- Italy
- Netherlands
- Australia
- Denmark

(update 23/12 Singapore bans everyone who was in the UK last two weeks from transit in Singapore and everyone who was in New South Wales in Australia)
Onshore "renewals" seem to be approved. This is for offshore applications only.
There has not been any formal circular about this but agents have been informed not to apply for such clients because they will be denied. When there is more official information, we will share this ASAP."

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 5:51pm

A mate flew to Bali last night via Jakarta from oz , he said there was 20 people on the plane

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 6:04pm

yep oz on the imigrasi no go visa list apparently...

which is kind of interesting when you look at oz numbers

...whilst bali are literally importing thousands and thousands of people from jakarta for the holidays as we speak...

crazy shit