COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Michael Bourne's picture
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Michael Bourne Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 3:00pm

'surely there's a better way...'

'I'm a small, petty man with an axe to grind.

Yes, sometimes I defend the indefensible.'

Mmmmm... well, well, well... there's always the swillnut way... the real swillnut culcha... lurking... again...

Swillnut 'em... just make up shit, and sink the (hidden) boots, swillnut their wives in the guts... smarmily and sleezily, boot and abuse and swillnut their wives... from a protected, hidden, chickenshit hideout but... again... ever so sweetly but... again...

Naaahh, fuck that chickenshit, don't ever, never, ever stupe' to that shit show level...

Politics, reason, logic, economics, fiscal this, fiscal that... blah, blah, blah... There's this thing called being humane. Separates humans from animals. Something much, much deeper. Deeper than basic, enshrined, documented swillnut 'culcha' even. I see it in Vic Local, guy, facto, snuffy, et al... and the dog too... the sheepdog. Despite the protected flock, against the hail of protected abuse... they're the ones that stood across the door, and said, 'nup... your not taking this family to the gas chambers... simply because its just not humane, simply because its just not human... its just not on... and that's more than enough...'

In a nut shell... again...

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 3:21pm

Where does that leave me big fella?

edit: Sorry, I've been flatout recently so I do have to apologise for being reduced to the odd pot-shot from the sidelines.

My question is, with the exception to those above, whom all of them I enjoy reading- which of us here really lacks humanity?

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Michael Bourne Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 3:32pm

I have a cancellation, and I have to do a workout. But that's a tough one zenny. There's no middle ground there, none at all, is there. Kids... wives, being carted away. Booted, drop kicked in the guts. Labelled. Sneaky, smarmy like.. but. You can't have that one both ways. Its way deeper than that surface, swillnut, smarmy, low shit. But, I honestly think that you know that zenny. You called it low. I call it lower than low, way beyond low. Insect level. One can only hope but... again...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 3:31pm

Supafreak, you told everyone FLCCC produced a peer-reviewed paper about ivermectin being an effective Covid 19 treatment.
I said put up a link.
You didn't, and said I should tell you which doctors rejected a non-existent research paper.
Haaaaaaaaaa Haaaaaaaaaa. It doesn't work that way champ.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:08pm

Sorry VL but I can’t put up a link from my phone but a simple google of FLCCC will give you all the information . I’m not trying to provoke you , but your making unfounded claims on the new information that’s available.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:17pm

Mate, I've googled FLCCC and there's absolutely nothing to suggest their research is peer reviewed. The absolute lack of coverage by MSM indicates they aren't credible. The fact they publish their research on social media is a massive warning sign. When Johns Hopkins University says their research is mostly anecdotes and not best practice studies, the red flags are flying high. When Facebook blocks the FLCCC normal people would question the source.
If you are going to quote someone, the onus is on you to back it up with links. Until you do that, it's ridiculous to request I critique a paper that you haven't linked (and may not even exist).
Oh and BTW, linking from a phone is very easy.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:19pm

Can you please tell me how to link from phone to this thread

Pops's picture
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Pops Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:20pm

Long press on link, copy to clipboard, long press on thread textbox, paste.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:30pm

Thank pops , I’ll try

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:38pm

I’ll have to get someone who knows how to do it lol tried but unsuccessful , remember VL that your dealing with the village idiot

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sypkan Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:45pm

"You said that last time Vic- didn't happen."

almost word for word...

he's good with the big calls

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:48pm

"...The absolute lack of coverage by MSM indicates they aren't credible...."

"...When Facebook blocks the FLCCC normal people would question the source..."

comedy genius

love or hate blowin... he has to be write about viclocal...

it simply must be a parody account

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GuySmiley Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:55pm

Superfreak there’s only one village idiot here and you’re not it ..... paging zen paging zen you maybe required here shortly!

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sypkan Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:56pm

...and grouping supafreak and blowin with shortenism... seriously?!!

no offence to shortenism... but seriiously...

they have some way different trip goin on!!

that's some real low grade lame arse cancelling going on right there

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sypkan Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 4:59pm

and another seriously?!!

when the fuck did 'the left' become the defenders of big pharma?

the 'stooging' continues...

again...

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Pops Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 5:09pm

Interested to see that link when you work out how to post it Supafreak.
I've not been able to find anything on it from any sources I recognise (none of the journals that come to mind for med science, nor any science comms outlets I know of, nor any news outlets other than the Washington examiner, which had a short article which you could sum up as "there's been some possibly promising results in small-scale trials with less than gold-standard methodology. More research warranted, but a long way to go before we can make any conclusions".)

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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 5:07pm

Sypkan:
Shortenism, blowin and supafreak all belong in the same basket. They are big on theories, but very short on evidence. Sure shortenism's theories are a little more out there, but they all use the same playbook.
If you're going to come out with opinions that contradict the vast majority of experts, you need to bring something to the table other than a recommendation to do your own resurch on google.
"when did 'the left' become the defenders of big pharma?" That of course is a ridiculous question. I'm critiquing people who spread junk science. I've never defended the business ethics of big-Pharma.
I've said it many times before, if we let covid conspiracy theories become widely believed, Australia would have very little chance of stemming the spread of the virus. Anyone who believes in science should be shouting down the conspiracy theorists. You're shouting at their critics.

troppo dichotomy's picture
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troppo dichotomy Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 5:09pm

Red pill or the blue pill?
I think i'll take both...............is there a purple pill?

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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 5:36pm

Just ask Dr Google Troppo. I’m sure you’ll be able to find the answer you want to be true.

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Supafreak Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 5:57pm

Hi Pops , try www.newswise.com>articles>flccc if you don’t see article search flccc when your on the story scroll down and there is a link to data , it’s extremely long as They have been researching since March

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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 6:17pm

Supafreak. Newswise is a platform for press releases, no matter how dubious.
Pay them some money, and they will promote your content to journos no matter how dubious.
Supafreak, you seem like an OK guy, but mate, seriously, you need to analyse your sources.
Have a good hard think why virtually no credible medical organisation and no credible media organisation is getting excited about FLCCC's research on Ivermectin.

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Supafreak Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 7:42pm

News wise is only a link to the journal of intensive care medicine, have you had a look at Dr.Pierre Kory and what he’s accomplished with covid patients , his credentials are pretty good for a quack , there are other publications with the FLCCC papers that have been released, news wise is just one of them

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Supafreak Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 6:36pm

If Dr Kory isn’t credible why was he asked to speak at the senate hearing ? Where he was thanked for his previous recommendations which WHO had stated shouldn’t be used as in steroids, and they in fact contributed to patients recovery.

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Supafreak Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 6:49pm

At the end of the day American patients with covid aren’t going to benefit at the moment from a vaccine, if this team of doctors has found a solution then saving lives is what counts , it’s been clearly stated this isn’t anti vaccine it’s treatment for patients with covid at all levels

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velocityjohnno Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 7:21pm

https://www.theage.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-sydney-remai...

"Beaches from Palm Beach to Manly will be closed until Monday, following a joint decision from Northern Beaches Council and Surf Life Saving NSW.

The 21 beaches in the Northern Beaches local government area will be shut over the weekend, with volunteer patrols suspended and surf clubs closed to members with the exception of emergency callout personnel."

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sypkan Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 7:24pm

I wonder if the covid vaccines are all so dodgy for the simple reason that there has never been a vaccine found for any other corona viruses?

I haven't really been following it of late, but it seems every vaccine that has been developed and touted has serious shortcomings, hence the continuation of the mask wars, amongst various other control arguments coming from all quarters...

not to mention the continuaton of the conspiracy wars, ...from both sides of politics...

supafreak's little treatment is just sounding like rerun of the shutting down of the hydroxy-chloroquine debate, with you know who sounding like the hysterical cnn guy

again...

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 7:40pm

it's most interresting that the media - and the general population by extension - are not mature enough to talk about these things

if there is such difficulty in developing a vaccine for corona viruses, then surely we should be talking about treatments that possibly prevent the virus getting to the later dangerous stages of development?

the whole thing reminds me of the climate change debate, where big money is already invested and has already made up its mind regarding problems and solutions, and no alternative voices will be tolerated, whatsoever....

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fitzroy-21 Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 7:45pm

My understanding is that the "vaccine " does not stop you getting the virus, nor does it stop you spreading the virus. It stops the severity of the symptoms.

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JQ Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 7:49pm

Geez you're so meta Sypkan. Making commentary about commentary about the debate.

'the whole thing reminds me of the climate change debate, where big money is already invested and has already made up its mind regarding problems and solutions, and no alternative voices will be tolerated, whatsoever....'

Saying no alternative voices will be tolerated sounds to me like Andrew Bolt whinging about having his free speech muzzled on his national TV show and in his nationally syndicated news columns.

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Blowin Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 8:37pm

Not much chance of containing anything with half of Sydney already on their way up the coast. I just drove South from Ballina to the Mid North and the Northbound traffic was non stop the entire time. Surfboards , kayaks , camper vans and bikes adorning the super spreader mass exodus .

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GuySmiley Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 8:47pm

Scotty the Prime Marketer says “there’s nothing to worry about” Blowin as “NSW sets the gold standard in the management of Covid”.

Let’s hope his spin is right for everyone’s sake.

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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 9:03pm

GS,
I'm going to put this out there. NSW was never "gold standard", but they've been exceptionally lucky. That luck has run out.
I've been to Sydney a few times this year and can safely say the level of social distancing and mask wearing is very low compared to Melbourne and Regional Victoria.
I'm very pessimistic re this outbreak. The exodus out of Sydney last night was frightening, and the geographic spread of the virus is worrying.
NSW needs three things right now. A premier who delivers the bad news and a very clear message. None of this, "Northern Beaches residents should wear a mask" rubbish. They need to wear a fucking mask across the city. They also need the entire state to start taking this seriously otherwise we are fucked. Finally they need a crack covid tracing team. 2 out of 3 isn't good enough.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 9:06pm

It’s an all-Aussie mashup of the holy pilgrimage, the zombie apocalypse and the great race.

Brain eating undead with dual SUPs on every roof rack coming to a beachside caravan park near you .

troppo dichotomy's picture
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troppo dichotomy Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 9:14pm

T'is da season!
Better to give than receive.

No credible media organisation and no credible medical organisation is the reason we are in this modern day pandemic.
The medical profession is based on procedures that are profitable.
A manufactured virus and now a manufactured vaccine.

How's da WHO'ies Wuhan investigation going?

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fitzroy-21 Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 9:17pm

To be fair, any Australian state is "gold standard" compared to Victoria. :)

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 9:39pm

Yep lucks run out. Biggest wave yet incoming. The hard and fast ship sailed today

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sypkan Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 10:21pm

"My understanding is that the "vaccine " does not stop you getting the virus, nor does it stop you spreading the virus. It stops the severity of the symptoms."

so a treatment then?

a preventative treatment perhaps...

...unless you're donald trump, ...then it's a 'vaccine'

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sypkan Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 10:32pm

I'm sorry jq, but when big tech. is censoring pretty much everything re. 'the virus', and big dollars are invested in taxing solution for CC, coupled with big tech. big corporation PR virtue signalling mechanisms (read some of velocityjohnnos links), and not much else is acceptable by way of 'narrative', then I don't give a shit if you label me andrew bolt....

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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 10:37pm

No Sypkan. Big tech is not censoring “pretty much everything” re covid 19. They just aren’t letting their platform being used to promote untested treatments that have serious side effects. Bit of an overreach there.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 11:40pm

I have mixed feelings about big tech platforms censorship, i think this year has been the year where a line has been crossed.

When they started banning videos like plandemic, i was yeah right on sucked in conspiracy theorist/anti vexers, my mindset was it had to be done for the safety of others.

But now I'm not so sure, it's such a slippery slope and so hard to know where to draw that line especially wth political/social type content.

For instance in the last week or so Youtube apparently banned any content that says the USA election was rigged, but at the same time they still allow videos by flat earther's or all other kind of total misinformation?

Hmmm i just see people losing trust everywhere in these platforms and things like fact check is becoming more option based than actual fact based, it just seems so many people are losing any trust in mainstream media too.

Shits got so much weirder this year, interesting to see where all this stuff goes.

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simba Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 7:24am

smoke and mirrors...this is the second one of these ive seen this week of some high profile person getting the jab...supposedly


https://twitter.com/pilipalapinc1/status/1339278545906970634?s=27

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GuySmiley Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 9:05am

2000-3000 international flight crew each week** "self" quarantining in up to 26 different hotels just in Sydney alone and its a State Government health issue when Covid19 leaks into the community.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/united-airlines-crew-member-was-r...

Is it at all possible just once for our pants shitting Prime Minister to act proactively on his legal responsibilities of border control and quarantining?

Is it at all possible that someone in this totally inept and hopeless Morrison government could have foresaw and fully planned for the day flights recommenced and put in place strict quarantining protocols for ALL people getting off a international flight?

It seems not.

We are led by the fucking brain dead.

** Qantas flight crew are allowed to "self isolate at home!!

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 9:18am

GS it's amazing something hasn't got out before with the flight crews. I still don't see this as 1 side political vs the other side political. Stopping possible infection occasions stops the virus, and gives time to review and work out what vaccines (if any) are safe with no side effects.

We had a terrible fruck up here in Vic, but then over a long, painful period got the virus beat and showed the West that it's possible to beat the virus in a Western country. We're in a position where it can be controlled at present, though there have been 18,000 travelers from Sydney to Melbourne between 11-18 Dec...

Vic state Premier Dan, I thought did a good job once it was clear we were up shit creek. Not a fun path to take, NSW take note! If infections get to Vic levels, it is not a fun situation to control it! McGowan in WA has protected them well (protecting my mum!). SA got on top of their outbreak, so that's a mix of ALP and Lib premiers. Quarantine should be elsewhere other than busy CBD hotels with multiple infection points in the transportation to and from...

"It’s an all-Aussie mashup of the holy pilgrimage, the zombie apocalypse and the great race.

Brain eating undead with dual SUPs on every roof rack coming to a beachside caravan park near you ."

Love it!

& msm/tech censorship are electroPravda

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Blowin Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 9:23am

Sorry ! Scott is unable to take your call right now. Please leave a message and he’ll get back to you at his soonest possible convenience....

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 9:34am

can't wait to read next Toonalook episode and how Bazza responds to latest NSW developments. I understand Toonalook is somewhere between Yamba and Kingscliff?

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Vic Local Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 10:09am

Loose flight crew quarantine is just another typically scumo fuck up.
Mistakes come in many forms and the general public are way more forgiving of certain types of fuckups.
If a government implements a plan and things go wrong, Australians go ballistic, even if the government is not entirely to blame. For example pink batts, Vic govt quarantine hotel management.
When a government does nothing and things inevitably go to shit, the Australian public lets them off lightly. eg no ICAC, aged care neglect, no action on climate change.
When it comes to the federal government's responsibility for quarantine, Scumo's MO is to pass the buck to the states and ignore obvious weaknesses in the system. It's been a fucking year and there's very little scumo can point to and say, we did that to solve the quarantine problem. Just like the bushfires.

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GuySmiley Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 1:08pm

Agree 100%

It’s the mark of conservative come reactionary governments the world over.

Do nothing and only react when the problem emerges ... all under the unstated lie of preserving or creating jobs ... nod nod wink wink, and if there’s a job in it well it’s a reduced pay and conditions.

To restate the point the only role Morrison takes seriously is doing and saying the minimum to retain power.

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Vic Local Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 1:14pm

GS, Morrison only acts when there's a political problem for him. Mass corruption isn't a problem unless it costs the LNP politically, therefore their default position is ignore, deny, and cover up.
Bushfires? It was holiday time for the PM until the backlash hit and then he's action man doing PR in fire zones.
Stranded Australians OS is a political problem for Morrison, so he's waving them in big time, creating a real problem for the states. But he doesn't give a fuck about that.
Aged care? don't expect any solutions to that dog's breakfast unless Scumo starts getting whacked in the polls over that issue. If Granny gets shit care, that's a price Scumo can deal with.
Climate change? Same deal.
With the LNP, there's no such thing as a crisis unless it's a political one for them. They only have two problems. 1. Getting booted out and 2. Not being in power.

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Vic Local Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 1:21pm

Just had a quick look at the Covid situation in Sydney and it's shit. Here are the big problems.
1. still no patient zero
2. Wide geographic spread of new cases
3. At risk venues are huge and right across the city
4. Testing numbers (12K) are very low compared to 20-30K across Melbourne during their second wave.
5. Crazy Swedish voluntary approach to business closures and mask wearing..
6. Really laxed social distancing in the last few months in Sydney.
7. Christmas super spreader events on the cards.
Is anyone going to be shocked if numbers get out of hand quickly and Gladbags is forced to pull the lockdown trigger? So much for "gold standard".