COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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Supafreak Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 8:00pm

Conspiracy ? Please google FLCCC then have a look at there data and findings , if you want to go further have a look at the doctors who make up the FLCCC and their credentials. If you believe politicians and pharmaceutical companies are squeaky clean , then you may have to do some more research, Pfizer track record ain’t that great.

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Vic Local Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 8:03pm

I can handle supafreak pushing unproven treatments during a pandemic. Every village needs an idiot.
What I can't handle is an MP with zero medical training pushing an untested drug with serious side effects. There are already perverse medical outcomes in South America with people thinking ivermectin is a suitable treatment for Covid 19.
Pushing this bullshit can also compromise the tried and true methods of reducing infections.
Kelly is a fuckwit of note. He was saved by Scumo at pre-selection and nobody,NOBODY in the LNP has told Kelly to pull his fucking head in. These dogs are putting LNP interest above public interest again.

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Supafreak Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 8:07pm

The quote about focus was on experimental vaccines and not what 100 years of medicine has taught us wasn’t from me it was from Dr. Kory in his speech to the congress hearing.

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Supafreak Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 8:11pm

Hopefully governments will review the new data and then that will be end of argument no matter which way it goes

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fitzroy-21 Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 8:13pm

You're wasting your breath Supafreak. His whole MO is about LNP bashing, he's a moron.

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JQ Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 8:18pm

I don't have to believe politicians or pharmaceutical companies are squeaky clean Supafreak. What I have faith in is the individual scientists and doctors and their actions as a group.

If ivermectin hasn't got up, I seriously doubt it's down to a conspiracy of any sort. I doubt it is being 'ignored' by the medical and scientific communities without good reason. If that's due to a lack of solid data or sheerly down to a lack of time, I don't know.

At any rate, we seem to have several effective vaccines and these are just better options.

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Supafreak Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 8:26pm

JQ please google FLCCC and have a look , this is new published information and has been peer reviewed , if the claims about not transmitting covid after treatment then surely that is better than a vaccine which long term effects are unknown . The doctors who form the FLCCC are frontline ICU doctors , does that mean anything ?

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Vic Local Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 8:45pm

The big problem is, the footage of this doctor has gone completely viral and the Google-Certified medical "experts" watch it, and then literally start swallowing ivermectin.
This is not how treatment plans should be made. Under normal circumstances, if some anti-expert mouth breather goes to Youtube (rather than a doctor) for medical advice, I couldn't really give a fuck. If some online resurcher removes themselves from the gene pool so be it, but in a pandemic, quack treatments harm innocent people too.
Kelly is a fucking menace pushing this absolute shite in social media.

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Supafreak Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 8:56pm

VL you really have no idea , ivermectin has been around for 40 years , it’s been used by 3.7 billion people in that time , it won a Nobel prize in 2015 , the WHO lists it as essential medicine, look at FLCCC please there is a wealth of information. Again this is new news from front line ICU covid doctors.

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Supafreak Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 8:58pm

Ivermectin is part of their treatment , it’s not the only thing they use , please educate yourself FLCCC

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Supafreak Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 9:24pm

The FLCCC has had there papers peer reviewed and published in the Journal of intensive care medicine. Not bad for a bunch of quaks hey VL

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Vic Local Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 9:40pm

"The FLCCC Alliance has been blocked in attempts to disseminate scientific information about Ivermectin on Facebook and other social media with the FLCCC’s pages repeatedly being shut down. Furthermore, after the group’s December 4, 2020 press conference in Houston, no major U.S. media outlets reported the FLCCC’s pleas for help from the federal government to act in order to bring this pandemic to an end. Nor did any representative from the CDC, the NIH or the World Health organization contact them."
Are they all in on the conspiracy to block Ivermectin for shits and giggles.
When it comes to the 2020 Swellnet Village Idiot title, you are really putting in a good showing Supafreak.

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Supafreak Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 9:41pm

Google FLCCC VL its everywhere what they have accomplished lol , peer reviewed and published in the JIC yesterday 16/1220

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Supafreak Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 9:43pm

VL is narcissistic behaviour contagious ?

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Vic Local Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 9:51pm

got a link champ?

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zenagain Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 9:57pm
Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 10:07pm

VL my link was to google FLCCC, start from the top and work your way down then hit more results, looking on Facebook for information won’t really help you.

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fitzroy-21 Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 10:07pm

Hahaha, gold Zen.

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fitzroy-21 Thursday, 17 Dec 2020 at 10:10pm

Waste of time supafreak, he'll only read what suits his narrative.

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truebluebasher Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 3:57am

Ivermectin is soil fungi that numbs critters & is sold in 'Ant Sand'.
Kinda stuff that kids eat, that parents don't wanna know about.
https://www.isglobal.org/en/healthisglobal/-/custom-blog-portlet/ivermec...

3 April Monash Uni tests show Ivermectin combats Covid along with most things.
19 Aug 2020 TGA approved Triple Therapy (Ivermectin / Zinc / Doxycycline)
https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2020-08-19/ivermectin-triple-th...
GP's can script doses upon request for...Weight 15kg + Over 12 > Under 60.
What it doesn't say is that Ivermectin is restricted to only the general populace.
Ivermectin may harm infants / Pregnant-Maternal / Frail / Elderly...(Science is out!)
This effectively wipes "a lifetime free drug" from the Covid GOF Goop Race.

Free drug is ratio weak so needs a few doses & all want it so supplies are low.
The repeat dosage is the real concern to weaker or growing groups.(Mushies)
No one has said but on it's own...it's likely that 7 doses / 1 month are needed.
No ones gonna make a free drug with multiple doses in a hurry...

So they mix different kicker combos of all sort to ramp it's staying power as to virus.
India hand them out in Triple combo Blister packs for about $3 Australian
Dose is based off Aussie Doc's Medicare PBS formula....
12mg Invermictin 1/day x 3 +100mg Doxycycline 2/day x 5 + 50mg Zinc 1/day x 14
( PBS Invermictin 4 / 14 days) > Doxy as the Booster > Zinc as the kicker. (Sorted)
https://preview.redd.it/quaiqwfixq461.jpg?auto=webp&s=7353fd62f6a382b180...

Ironically Ivermectin is regarded as go to Age Care Drug to rid scabies outbreaks.
Vic Health is best placed to Check Scabies (vs) Covid outbreaks to verify immunity.
Bit of a bummer that Scomo lost the age care med files, the day before inquiry. Wot!

Crew are smart & realise triple combo is already approved as separate PBS scripts.
GP simply prescribes the safest doses & amounts per day for drug cocktail.
So yes! You can ask for Medicare Ivermectin Covid Treatment Plan at your local GP.
Medicare & Big Pharm will not be happy or be advocating this alt Covid treatment.
But they are prone to endless supply shortage if more sign up...crew knew this!

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AlfredWallace Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 9:06am

Ivermectin is not from a soil borne fungi. It’s derived from a Streptomyces sp. bacterium.

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GuySmiley Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 9:07am

What are you getting at Zen?

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zenagain Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 9:41am

Nothing Guy, Vic just wanted a link- I obliged him on behalf of Supafreak.

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GuySmiley Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 10:02am

I saw Scotty from Marketing on the news yesterday saying there was nothing to worry about and NSW sets the gold standard in the management of Covid19.

Wishing NSW all the best and a speedy result but surely it’s long overdue for Morrison to accept and act on his day job responsibilities and get commonwealth run remote quarantining up and running.

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Pops Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 10:11am

Yeah, pretty disappointing that we're still not getting this quarantine thing right. Hopefully the tracers can put the jigsaw puzzle together quickly.
Not really surprised that there's been an outbreak though... the community's gotten a little complacent round here.
Sh*thouse timing though. Bunch of my mates & some family are gonna be locked up over christmas.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 10:44am

We all know there will be cases like this that will appear somehow, NZ had the same, whats important is how they are dealt with.

And they don't turn into this

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 10:53am

Of course the bogus virus is back, just before chrissy to maximise disruption, fear and ppl lining up for a bogus vaccine that does nothing other than put contaminants into ppls bodies and line the pockets of big pharma. Merry Xmas!

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Pops Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 10:58am

Shortenism,
Hate to lose my cool, but get fucked you empathy-deficient troll.

I've already had a couple of family members get very sick from covid, and now it looks like an uncle in a high-risk category has it, but no, it's a "bogus" and we all need to wake up .

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Pops Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 10:59am

Indo, fingers crossed.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 11:02am

You would expect they will get it under control, they do have very good tracing and we are getting better at this, but Christmas sure wouldn't help, and feel for those that have to go into lock down over Christmas.

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shortenism Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 11:06am

Pops, I'd say you're on here more than me, throwing your opinions around. Troll? Empathy deficient? That big room full of mirrors is back. Get fkd yourself. How about the broader ring of suffering around this hoax. It ain't all about you.. Sorry bud. There's plenty of ppl around with a their own story of pain & suffering around this big hoax and many other things. And hate losing my cool too.

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GuySmiley Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 11:48am

Question for the Prime Marketer: if quarantine is defined as the treatment of people in remote isolation typically in buildings with excellent ventilation, and as practiced in the past world wide, why are we quarantining people in hotels smack in the middle of large population centres in buildings with very poor or shared ventilation?

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Pops Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 11:51am

Good question.
Hotels don't always have poor ventilation; depends on what strategy the engineer went with and how much money the developer wanted to spend. Fresh air systems are usually shared, but sometimes each room would have its own return/relief system.
Having said that, in my professional (HVAC engineer) opinion any hotel used for quarantine ought to have had surgery-grade HEPA filters fitted for each room... not sure if that has or hasn't occured. Don't think I've heard of any cases of cross-contamination through the ventilation systems as yet though?

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velocityjohnno Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 11:58am

A good history of Quarantine:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3559034/

Skimming through it, I can't see previous use of hotels in CBDs of major cities - rather, our ignorant ancestors used to separate transmission via a river, island, lazaretto or physical distancing. I can see

"A sanitary cordon—not to be broken on pain of death—was imposed by armed guards along transit routes and at access points to cities. "

which I don't think is being used at present for the transit of goods/people/flight crews, inasmuch as flights are coming from infected areas without certainty of being clear of virus, although there is a process once arrived.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 12:02pm

Did i miss a news article from a decent source suggesting that Covid was now spreading around hotels used for quarantine or escaping into the community via air ventilation systems??

Or is this a clutching at straws conspiracy theory of Guys?

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 12:27pm

I'm kinda over Scotty From Photo Ops telling everyone NSW is the Gold Standard...blah blah blah.
It's absolutely the wrong message. I was in Sydney just over a week ago and social distancing and mask wearing was virtually non-existent.
If Sydney doesn't get it's shit together really quick, things are going to go pear-shaped fast. The last thing they need is a PM telling them they are the gold-standard. It's kind of like coach Dad telling his son he had a great game when sonny-boy had a stinker.

synchrodogcal's picture
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synchrodogcal Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 12:36pm

sorry to hear about your uncle, pops

blind eye and a poker face when dealing with the 'hoaxers', mate, helps with the blood pressure levels ;)

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Pops Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 12:46pm

Thanks mate.

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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 12:50pm

good luck with your uncle Pops and don't feel bad for unloading on shortenism. I'm so fed up with people claiming covid is a hoax and pushing unproven and often very dangerous treatment plans.
These people are a fucking menace to society. They deserve to be abused.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 12:55pm

You said that last time Vic- didn't happen.

Rioting in the streets from right-wing vigilantes post US election- didn't happen.

You're 2 from 2.

Gonna try for a third?

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AndyM Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 12:58pm

Yep Zen, these people that push divisive and potentially dangerous bullshit are a menace to society.
They deserve to be abused.

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truebluebasher Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 1:01pm

Live example of Scomo & NSW (Shit Hot Oz #1 Contract tracing)
Australian active cases ...17 Dec 2020
Qld 15 / WA 13 / NT 9 / Vic 8 / Tas 4 / NSW 4 / ACT 0 / SA 0 (False Start)

18 Dec 2020
Qld 17 / WA 13 / NT 9 / Vic 7 / Tas 4 / NSW 4 / SA 0 / ACT 0

16 Dec 2020 Govt Postcode Map is so pre NSW 3rd wave (Useless)
NSW Health is 2 days behind with Zero news or Warnings of cluster.
NSW Health (Daily Review?) shows 0 last week > 3 this week (Weekly Review?)
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/
Hero Press conference link is from yesterday...(Today's address ....whenever?)

Reasons...
1) NSW has #1 Oz shittiest slowest Contact Tracing
2) NSW [ DLS ] is now 2days + 1hr behind the rest of Australia
3) NSW / Feds hiding another Covid Wave
4) Scomo Super Xmas Super Spreading pressie
5) Just more Scomo / Gladys Covid outbreak suppression.
6) They lost count on account of endless Hot Hotel outbreaks.

o's (Arrivals) Active Cases
68 in last 7 days + 10 in last 24 hrs (Note: None listed on states or Maps)
[ Should show up either before or after Chrissie sometime or NYE maybe! ].

Amazing Race Team Qld were blocked by Police State as of 14 mins ago.(Too slow)
Qld is now an advanced civilisation with Timetables for all NSW 2025 Hotspots.
Even the whole of Oz knows what NSW is getting for Chrissie...

NSW are just pretending they don't know & hide it under the Christmas Tree.
Is that 8 days to the Syd -Hobart & only '13 days' until NYE...wish it was 15 days.
Those fantastic NSW live spectaculars always look better on the tele anyway.

Goldie wish you were here, as we've worn thru yer Beach Shack Hammocks.
Congratulations Team NSW for shooting past Team Qld at the Border Block.

Qldurrz again say thanks for yer Big Fire Bird droppings...all the best neighbours.

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synchrodogcal Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 1:04pm

vic, imo abusing someone generally makes them dig in more, so it's pretty counterproductive & if anything it probably amplifies their message

surely there's a better way...

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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 1:05pm

So all that stabbing and shooting the piss boys have been doing lately isn't right wing vigilante post election violence? Zen, I thought you were better than that.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 1:34pm

Let's be real here VL the post election violence hasn't happened, only real related violence, has been when Antifa have turned up to Trump rallies.

We have seen far far more violence and unrest during the year BLM and Antifa related stuff, death total is 25+ and thousands of arrest, and millions of dollars in damage to private and public property.

And it won't end when Trumps gone, they hate Biden just as much.

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GuySmiley Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 1:45pm

Hey zen, what’s all this sniping from the sidelines, except of course when you’re defending your favourite little contributor? Just saying your MO is showing ...

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zenagain Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 1:55pm

What can I say Guy- I'm a small, petty man with an axe to grind.

Yes, sometimes I defend the indefensible.

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Vic Local Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 1:59pm

synchrodogcal. I agree re abusing people not changing their minds.
The thing is, blowin, shortenism, and supafreak are never going to change their minds. Facts and evidence mean nothing to these people. They are dunning - Kruger poster children.
Abusing them is about putting them in their place so their opinions don't become mainstream. I was in the USA when the hard right starting going all anti-fact. People kept saying we should ignore Rush Limbaugh and respect the new Fox News channel's first amendment rights and not shout them down.. And look what happens in the USA when there's a critical mass of anti-science lunatics.
Importing American alt-right idiocy is the last thing Australia needs.

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synchrodogcal Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 2:48pm

couldn't agree more with your last sentence, vic, however i think your methodology is questionable to say the least... as they say, any publicity is good publicity & by constantly engaging (in your incessantly brusque manner no less), imo you amplify the message you're trying to snuff out! self defeating eh, or is that self defecating, i always get those two mixed up

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Supafreak Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 2:54pm

VL , it seems you believe the FLCCC are a bunch of useless quaks that don’t know what they’re doing or talking about. Can you please give a list of your experts that have viewed the new published data and dispute their findings.