COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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stunet Tuesday, 10 Nov 2020 at 2:59pm

Haven't heard from Bill Gates in a while. Anyone know what he's been up to?

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shortenism Tuesday, 10 Nov 2020 at 3:16pm

Stok,you sound like a man in beaten and trodden on and by your account you have been. Sounds like a shit show there, which is baffling that you can come out of it actually supporting it... Classic fear based mind control 101. Mate, what I can remind you of is this. You are in control of your destiny its your choice even though all of the noise around you tells you it isn't. Your 'sad thing' comment is indeed a sad thing. Reap the benefits of what? Being let out and led along on a leash, with a bunch of other sanitised complying statistics.. What a wonderful world that sounds like... Now excuse my lack of sensitivity but FFS get a grip mate, man up and shake off the fear. Its in your hands.

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Hiccups Tuesday, 10 Nov 2020 at 3:19pm

"Haven't heard from Bill Gates in a while. Anyone know what he's been up to?"

Probably hiding out from Qanon lunatics.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Tuesday, 10 Nov 2020 at 3:23pm

No but he's lurking in the shadows of Biden's COVID / CROWN Virus task force, which luckily along with Biden's presidency is dead in the water.

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Hiccups Tuesday, 10 Nov 2020 at 3:29pm

wtf is this CROWN Virus shorty?

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shortenism Tuesday, 10 Nov 2020 at 3:37pm

Brush up on your Latin Hiccy

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Stok Tuesday, 10 Nov 2020 at 3:37pm

Lol shortenism - I'm crippled with fear here!!!!

As much as I love your sentiment that we control our own destiny.....truthfully, we don't. If you do, well then you're lucky/privileged individual, or deluded.

I'm likening what you're saying to drink driving. Sure it was great back before it started to be policed - we had freedom to drink and drive! But oh dear....because some people's deaths were attributed to drink driving we made rules and the future changed (note - attributed - they didn't actually DIE of drink driving! Conspiracy much???). There probably were a few folk who didn't want to be controlled, or be part of this uber safe future at the time....oh well.

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Hiccups Tuesday, 10 Nov 2020 at 3:40pm

"Brush up on your Latin Hiccy"

Ah yeah. That went over my head. I should probably WAKE UP.

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Pops Tuesday, 10 Nov 2020 at 3:55pm

The latin word for crown was corona (also the root of the English word "coronation").
Coronaviruses are so named due to the distinctive spike proteins that kinda look a bit like the knobs on a crown if you squint.
NFI where shortenism was going with that though.

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Stok Thursday, 12 Nov 2020 at 10:40am

Recent article talking about potential travel bubbles (with no quarantining needed) between Australia and Asia (Japan, Taiwan, Singapore to name a few). Months away, but on the cards.

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zenagain Thursday, 12 Nov 2020 at 12:27pm

I wouldn't get too excited about Japan. Covid is ramping up again here, probs our third wave and coinciding with the return of winter.

That said, the ski resorts will be devoid of international tourists. So every cloud has that silver lining. Also, the Japanese government are practically paying us to travel domestically now with their go-travel and go-eat campaigns.

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velocityjohnno Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 10:18am

17 new cases linked to Adelaide northern suburbs cluster:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-16/seventeen-cases-adelaide-coronavi...

"South Australian Police Commissioner Grant Stevens said the next 24 to 48 hours would be pivotal in determining if restrictions and closures were enforced."

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velocityjohnno Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 10:21am

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-15/wa-premier-overseas-travel-bigges...

...and as a result my cunning plan of driving back to WA to see family when it is fully open to Vic is up in the air...

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Craig Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 10:55am

Not good re SA, when I was there a few weeks ago with the lack of virus circulating there was no contact gathering systems in place at restaurants or cafes etc, no detail collecting or QR codes.

I hope their tracing efforts are up to scratch.

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geek Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 11:17am

velocityjohnno I was planning on doing the same, you would still need to spend 2 weeks in SA though (or lie on your G2G application).

The Covid Safe differences between the states is a real worry Craig. In a couple weeks us in Vic can jump on a plane to NT and walk straight into a nightclub (with no mask) whereas it will likely be months before they are open again in Melb

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 11:23am

Yeah there should be all round state consensus agreement on collecting details, mask wearing, temperature checks etc otherwise issues like this will be made harder in some states compared to others.

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shortenism Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 11:29am

Yes miraculous timing isnt it.. Just as they were telling us its getting back to normal... Ohh noooo here it comes again, lock everyone down again.. What a load of horse shit.

Thank fk SA hasn't had all that crap you mention Craig. If anyone is scared stay home and hide under you covers with a mask on. Or better still do the work to rise above it, become and observer of what is going on with the world and trust that you will be fine.

It's all a big fear campaign to get a reaction. Remember that.

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Stok Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 11:31am

Had a trip booked to Adelaide in December! May have to put it on ice for now....not too keen on doing any quarantining or being stuck due to border closures....was actually looking forward to not having to wear a mask there!

Completely agree though regarding standardising approaches nationwide. It's impractical to be so quick to slam borders shut. We're supposed to be one country here!

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velocityjohnno Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 1:08pm

geek is that true? That makes it more of a bugger here as I have to arrange treatments every 2 weeks... Ideally, all will be OK to drive over from Vic without having a 2 week quarantine, and the drive can be done between treatments.

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geek Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 1:19pm

Yeh mate, in the application you need to indicate if you have been in a declared hotspot (ie. Vic, NSW and now SA) in the past 14 days. Yes = self quarantine required. Less than 2 wks of 0s and we should be let in quarantine free, fingers crossed SA cases don’t leak into Vic!

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velocityjohnno Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 1:25pm

Ah, my strategy was to show a 3228 or 3226 sticker and they would go "Ah, you're all good mate, I can see the sticker."

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velocityjohnno Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 1:52pm

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-records-no-new-coro...

"Premier Daniel Andrews has said as he suggested the Adelaide outbreak was linked to security guards in the state's hotel quarantine system."

Vic declares SA a hotspot, but keeps border open with no quarantine...
After everything Vic has been through, including all the kick-a-Vic, how keen are we to go through all that again?

https://www.theage.com.au/national/this-is-deja-vu-sa-residents-urged-to...

SA urged to mask up. Or they could be without fear and observe I guess.

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I focus Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 1:52pm

Don't agree one size fits all, it very rarely does when managing risk.

Different states have different population distributions / densities, borders, different numbers of vulnerable indigenous populations and that's before you get to national income from say the likes of mining.

Weighing it all up different risk profiles will apply on how you will choose to mange the overall risk.

An example is if COVID got onto any of the WA mine sites or gas production sites or Kimberly regions the lost of income would be huge and heaven forbid the mortality rate from our 1st nations people.

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velocityjohnno Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 2:03pm

https://www.theage.com.au/national/south-australia-s-covid-19-cluster-gr...

Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have joined Western Australia in placing restrictions on travellers from South Australia

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views from the ... Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 8:04pm

Aahhh the Irony!
Having spent 3 months in Brazil this year (March- June) and 5 months in Europe (last 2 months in Italy) I'm sitting in an Adelaide Hotel doing day 12 of quarantine before flying back to Vic (home) on Thursday. I FKN HOPE!!!
Im frothing VicLocal so I trust you will still be welcoming.

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Vic Local Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 8:09pm

I'm collecting rocks to chuck at you views from the cockpit.

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sypkan Tuesday, 17 Nov 2020 at 2:25am

when the fuck are they gonna give up on this dumbass city hotel quarantine idea and move it out to the regional areas?

you know, the elaborate, evidence based, scientifically proven methods, that we knew of and practiced, decades and decades, if not hundreds of years ago...

enough with this prop up the big hotel chains scam

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shoredump Tuesday, 17 Nov 2020 at 6:31am

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 18 Nov 2020 at 2:05pm

South Oz full lockdown for 6 days:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/south-australia-announces-six-day-cir...

they've also separated their regions, as WA and Vic did.

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 18 Nov 2020 at 2:22pm
AndyM's picture
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AndyM Wednesday, 18 Nov 2020 at 2:33pm

Why don't they just wash the poo off in the shower like everybody else?

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simba Wednesday, 18 Nov 2020 at 3:00pm
sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 18 Nov 2020 at 4:00pm

same old shit, different lockdown...

this poo paper fetish really is quite bizarre, are we that ocd clean these days that we're scared of a little smear that can be washed off with a little water?

...well we are actually, and a little poo fear is good, but come on people...

we can learn a lot from the indos, toilet paper is really rather gross when you think about it actually. as a friend pointed out to me when we were discussing the intracacies of toileting in indo... if you accidently got poo on your hand, would you wipe it of with a tissue and go, ...well that's that sorted, ...good to go...?

jump in the bloody shower ya bunch of morons

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sypkan Wednesday, 18 Nov 2020 at 4:03pm

that mouth wash thingy is interesting, more interesting in terms of how slow some info comes out, and how fast misinformation spreads, ...not at all helped by the WHO, media, governments...

my mate told me about mouthwash before the first lockdown, way back in february/march, ...and here we are with bbc's big announcement

and here we are, still debating the effectiveness of facemasks...

and sunlight...

and climate...

and inside/outside...

etc.

the modern internet information rich world is the weirdest of weird, weird weird beyond belief

I know it's not very fashionable to say so, ...but please please just give some common bloody sense!

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truebluebasher Monday, 23 Nov 2020 at 5:19pm

WHO guidelines.
10 day Quarantine (Not transmittable)
14 days is a mild case
3-6 weeks is a severe case...

Meanwhile back on Planet Covid
% of Patient's reporting covid symptoms goes on & on & on.
40 days - 91%
2 months - 87%
2-3 months - 78%
3 months - 50%-80%

No Symptoms- Patients test Non Positive but are still very ill.
12 weeks - 56%
111 days - 55% tired - 42% short of breath - 34% brain fog

3-4 months - (Immunity wears off) 2nd infection + reinfection period
(Note this casts doubts if Vaccine is effective after 3-4 months)

5 months - 90% have Lung Damage.

Long Covid - 10%-20% are not recovering. (40% are fit women 20-40 y/o)
Actual Stats - USA 10% - NSW 13.4% - China 14% (Up to 20% reported)

Note: Long term covid are younger fitter patients that bypassed ICU.
[Fact] ICU (ventilator) Patients are renowned for taking up to 3-5 years recovery.
Repeat: tbb is not referring to ICU patients but "Gym Junkies" as the Long Covid!

Covid Blood Clotting is doing the damage.
Patients may have a small window as blood flows but then clots again.
One can see how fit people exercising...amplifies the stop/start clotting effect .
This deprives then exhausts every part of their bodies...(Like Zombies)

Long Hauler'z Diagnosis :
Neutrophils : (Exploding white blood cells) + Covid 19 anitibodies
https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/lab-notes/higher-levels-of-nets-blood-ass...
Trial Cure :
Dipyridamole : An affordable oldschool anti clotting agent that is under study.
https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/lab-report/new-cause-of-covid-19-blood-cl...
No one is promising this as a cure for all & much damage has already been done.
It's possible that some may struggle some life after 5 years (Based on SARS)
The remaining will die a slow tortuous (Zombie like death) at the hands of covid...

50% of Covid men produce only 25% sperm + it's abnormal in countless ways.
Plenty of US Apex males won Covid Parties now can't get Cheerleaders pregnant?
Jury is out but only your own body can recede the virus in the testes.
There is no known drug or cure other than young men avoiding the virus.
This ups the game, now that young men risk losing their fertility...
https://www.soundhealthandlastingwealth.com/health-news/covid-19-could-d...

Depending if cure can address long Covid young women a fertility crisis looms.
Health professionals now say for all men to get checks & freeze sperm.
Covid legacy is an automated Test Tube Baby World about 100 years too soon.
The accuracy of your fertility test depends on how deep your pockets are!

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velocityjohnno Monday, 23 Nov 2020 at 10:07pm

Cheers for that tbb

Where are the symptoms and long covid data coming from

As southpark sang "prowtect my ballls!"

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shoredump Tuesday, 24 Nov 2020 at 6:14am

The words “up to” and “may” shouldn’t be overlooked in that link tbb.
Nothing conclusive.
But it is pointing to be somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 as bad as marijuana on the sperm count, for some reference

“Up to” 75% of the swellnet readership “may” have gone out of their way and even paid money to lower their sperm count at some stage of their life, with marijuana use

Spark up

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shoredump Wednesday, 25 Nov 2020 at 5:25pm

Let’s go....

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truebluebasher Wednesday, 25 Nov 2020 at 8:36pm

Good call shoredump!
Yes! Oddball chart deserves a long winded explanation for the right reasons.

Each of those stats came from different medico reports in different countries.
tbb would need more links upon links beyond the text to credit them all.

tbb freaked out when they kept lining up by duration % in that chart.
Swear that's all the stats, no more added + none removed for effect...a straight rip!
That was freakishly unexpected & 'seems' to cross check itself...
This chart bizarrely best details the virus in it's longest duration to date.
Never set out to do that! Nor wish to claim credit or exploit the sufferers.
tbb has never seen such a chart....it's likely exclusive to swellnet...(Good / Bad?)
Only say that as the research never uncovered anything remotely similar.

Special thanx to both shoredump & velocityjohnno for helping to heal tbb.
Feel better for it, real champions ... you both are!

This took a fair bit of research from varied GP's -Towns - Media - Govt Stats.
Can also guarantee no one is pushing this & sadly few know of this scale of illness.
So what you read is raw, buried & varied data from corners of the internet.
tbb tried to collect as much data as was available...(Hard to resource)
Long covid news is mostly about the patient & so it should be, so data sets are rare!

tbb's only agenda was that long covid presented similar to own myalgic illness.
Selfishly tried to find an answer to chronic fatigue, weakness etc...
Thought if everyone is turning into a Zombie...tbb will get in line for magic potion!

All reports agree that more data was needed. (On both long term & sperm count)
Can guarantee no one is pushing this as gospel, most would be shocked.
Support groups claim that Health Authorities had dumped them.
Not Front Page & News would charge you to run a Long Covid ad in the classifieds.

Research shows WHO & Govt's are falling further behind the real Covid crisis.
Only a few GP's are alerting Long Covid & desperately call for assist & conference.
(Important)
tbb will link to a US MD who's ( must read ) letter is a cry for help...
10 Oct 2020 - Gregg Grinspan MD (Private Practice) Has 30 Long Covid Patients.
(No conflict of interest)
"Where is the Serious work on this underlying basic scientific question being done?
...I'd like a conversation with them."
This MD Blows the lid on the yo-yo behaviour...he best examples the Blood Clots.
(Crew will wanna read the rest of his letter for sure!) He reveals trance like effect.
Scroll down to end of article...re: The very last letter. (All letters are good!)
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771111

That's what tbb is saying...the real breakthroughs are from these front line rebels.
The medicos that speak out about the vent massacre or this long covid curse.
These are the ones to salute...they dare ask the questions against best science.

Here are some notable long covid groups..
UK / 30,000 - https://www.longcovid.org/stories
UK - https://www.longcovidsos.org/
US / 120,000 - https://www.survivorcorps.com/
https://www.wearebodypolitic.com/covid19
Oz report
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/gps-and-hospitals-to-tackle-lo...

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shoredump Thursday, 26 Nov 2020 at 8:12am

My pleasure tbb, we’re all in this together. Don’t ever forget that.

Have you tried telling the chronic fatigue to f#€k off!? Must be a major and all consuming drag, my friend. Hopefully it just disappears as mysteriously at it began

Long covid looks like it’s going to be an issue, and I concede my positivity and refusal to accept the negative is mostly bravado, and just a glass half full approach. I look for the light by default

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Thursday, 26 Nov 2020 at 10:17am

tbb, try an earthing mat for your bed. They are an underlay for your bed, which you plug into a power point (thats how it earths). I haven't used them personally but a friend down the road reckons it has helped massively with her Chronic Fatigue.

Covid will be washed up by late Jan and found to be the biggest hoax in history.

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Vic Local Thursday, 26 Nov 2020 at 10:36am

Ha Ha, Shortenism. That's gold.
Dispensing plug in medical advice to solve a complex syndrome, and then saying Covid is the biggest hoax in history.
I still have no idea if you're a comedy genius or bat shit crazy.

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wallpaper Thursday, 26 Nov 2020 at 10:45am

one positive thing this Covid has done for the country is we all know who the really really dumb cunts are now.

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DAW Thursday, 26 Nov 2020 at 12:26pm

Yep there's a few on here!

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 26 Nov 2020 at 10:45pm
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 26 Nov 2020 at 10:46pm
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truebluebasher Friday, 27 Nov 2020 at 10:26am

Far-out! So cool...best news ever! Whole of Oz think Vic is so spunky.

Goldie were lost without our better half...
We salute our rellies best comeback tour ever.

Qld Police are beating the Welcome Mat to make you feel more at home...(Ouch!)
Summer Love ain't like no other Love...so just keep yer distance.

tbb will cue a jubilant tear jerking red hot triple double play...('Done did that!')

Summer Love

Summer in The City

Welcome Back

Our home is yours Vic... pretty sure they already know that tbb.

[ Vic On The Move ]
https://vplates.com.au/vplatesapi/plate/image/Car_Retro_New/Car_Retro_Bl...

[ Qld Sunshine State ]
https://www.racq.com.au/-/media/racqgroupmvc/feature/live/news/education...

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Blowin Friday, 27 Nov 2020 at 1:17pm

Queensland and Victoria as lovers ?

That’s some Arnold Schwarzenegger / Danny Devito style pairing.

Other couplings would be WA and the NT - Simpatico

SA and Tassie - Strong silent type hooks up with understated beauty .

ACT and a Besser block public toilet - peas in a pod

NSW is in love with its own reflection.

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 29 Nov 2020 at 5:21pm
truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 2:59am

COVIDSafe piggybacks QR codes.
Oct / Nov ~ ALP / SA Police / Auditor General all say app is shit.

Scomo lied about Spying on your COVIDSafe & was doing it from day one...durr!
Apparently Scomo's Spies couldn't help themselves feeding on your whereabouts.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/24/australia-spy-agencies-covid-19-app-data/
They reckon it was lawful & above board, but won't reveal all your 6 Big Brothers.
We all discussed it was permissible under homeland security...(Scomo is a shit liar!)

Scomo : Only the State Health could access it > No State health ever bothered!
Stuart Robert finger in pie tech crash #247...Pie's all over yer face mate...Again!

IGIS... "One such example was "incidental Execution of Warrants!" ...Hava Go!
Dutto sorted it & you're next, well, straight after that Chinese Guy of course!

June - UK chucked 'Herald' in the bin > now Scomo 's new COVIDSafe upgrade.
Geeks : " COVIDSafe Herald is Rearranging the Deckchairs on the Titanic "
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-12-01/covidsafe-app-overhaul-co...

Pays to read this one for the QR association in the Timeline.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/a-bluetooth-revamp-touted-to-fix-australia...

Scomo is racing to get some Shit Hot Pings but not for Covid Tracing.
Right now all states are releasing QR codes (Digital Contact Tracing)
Coincidentally each state ends FAQ with do I still need COVIDSafe app.
State QR 's run a similar generic National Cabinet list of Scomo's fav spy venues

All states vomited over COVIDSafe app & booted it but now all play Scomo says!
All these hugging pings now boost the fat in Stuart Robert's Pork Pie recipe.
Scomo's outdoor app is racing to piggy back QR's to get inside yer mind.
Lib's can trace whole nation at anytime.(Oops! Only Health officials will do that!)
Businesses without QR wear strict SD ruling (Go broke!) Download all apps.

Pause!
Do not be fooled People! Read the fine print...
Exactly like Scomo's Hot Hotels (This is a disguised National MyGov push'n'shove)
All different apps, run same List with same Scomo's COVIDSafe Signature.
A National Cabinet roll out - for treats...Note Only Anna is not hooked! (No Trust!)
Qld are running a 3rd party QR code, so she'll need to be roped in for her biscuit.

QR: Uni Students must ping every doorway as they enter.
Pick up Ping Pizzas + Get a ping with that Haircut Hippy!
NSW also wants All sex services / Corp Functions / Vessels - Ping Ping Ping!
Some states say if you don't use app & ask for a pencil then you're unstrayin.
Other states bury QR code under the shady MyGov pervs on me app...

Scomo & All states claim they're now Oz wide with QR contact Tracing...
These contact tracing forms expose how useless National Cabinet really is.
Covid Log books are as different as Marine Debris Cards (Very few are alike).
Note this takes one display as presented here then a joint fix of 5 minutes tops!

Fed Gov Health recommend these Forms must be digitised within 24 hrs.
States are to digitise 100,000's and be on same page as promised. (Just Mental).
Universal form saves weeks & months of fucking around losing people & swearing.

Important - No attendance record has State Govt Health Contact (email or Phone)?
Police: "Advise no DV victims full name + contact-(Many Govt forms threaten lives).

Vic - Date / 1st Name (only) / Phone (only) / Time in / Table No - Room.
*WA - Date / Time / Name / Phone
*Tas - Date / Time / Name / Phone (same but oceans apart) It's a start!
NSW - Date / 1st Name / Last Name / Phone or email / Time in
SA - Date / Time / Name / Phone / Email / Location -Venue -Function
NT - Date / 1st Name / Last Name / Phone / Email / Address / Time in
Qld - Full Name / Phone / Email or Address / Date / Time in & out -(No Print Form)
ACT - First Name / Phone / Date / Time -(No Print Form)

As said it's an example of how poorly Australia is Governed at all levels.
Throwing money down the drain & Wasted resource is now the norm.
Even worse as it shows no urgency or duty of care toward covid sufferers.

A School project to design one Form to save $10-50 million & save many lives.
Agreeing on one card will never happen in our lifetime! We all know that for sure!
Reason tbb is so sure....States can't agree on a name for such forms (Whatever!)

tbb is a bit harsh as Marine Debris cards are different with each $ponsor & town.
There is no cure for it folks! Way too complicated for puny Human minds to unravel.