COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
@sypkan, far out mate, do you know something that the rest of us don't?
"I have no doubt the vaccine efficacy and contribution has been totally overstated, both in terms of the initial marketing, and hindsight attribution....
no doubt whatsoever"
Feel the same way about seatbelts? Or penicillin?
What about this little nugget:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267364503_Ethical_Analysis_of_t...
We've been doing weird shit before covid came along, that's for sure. Where are the anti airport-body-scanner groups? Why do vaccines draw such vehemence?
ok stok
explain to me how life is basically back to normal in indo on a pissy rate of vaccination, of a totally shit vaccine, and no one is dying in the streets...and oz is an absolute shitshow?
go
Stok wrote:@sypkan, far out mate, do you know something that the rest of us don't?
"I have no doubt the vaccine efficacy and contribution has been totally overstated, both in terms of the initial marketing, and hindsight attribution....
no doubt whatsoever"Feel the same way about seatbelts? Or penicillin?
What about this little nugget:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267364503_Ethical_Analysis_of_t...
We've been doing weird shit before covid came along, that's for sure. Where are the anti airport-body-scanner groups? Why do vaccines draw such vehemence?
Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.
Ill do a comparison for you.
If the covid vaccine is a seatbelt, it’s sticky tape that you wrap around yourself and the seat.
Then the sticky tape starts to peel off very quickly so you put more sticky tape on, and every three months you apply more sticky tape.
Then when you do get in a car crash you the sticky tape breaks and offers very little protection.
"Why do vaccines draw such vehemence?"
they don't... for me...
but the outright lies and orgy of obfuscation does...
sypkan wrote:ok stok
explain to me how life is basically back to normal in indo on a pissy rate of vaccination, of a totally shit vaccine, and no one is dying in the streets...and oz is an absolute shitshow?
go
I’d like to know this
sypkan wrote:ok stok
explain to me how life is basically back to normal in indo on a pissy rate of vaccination, of a totally shit vaccine, and no one is dying in the streets...and oz is an absolute shitshow?
go
Indo is getting it's Omicron wave now though.
I agree though that a lot of these measures dont seem as effective as we have been led to beleive, and its clear when waves take off they find their natural peak then die.
We saw that in Indonesia and India with Delta, and have now clearly seen it happen with Omicron in many countries including Australia.
They say Omicron gives resistance against Delta, but Delta infections dont give any real resistance to Omicron, so i think we can expect to see a large fast wave in Indonesia in the next month, but being so much more mild compared to Delta its probably not going to be as big deal as there Delta wave.
Heres Indos start of Omicron wave from 3 months snap shot
But looks like nothing yet compared to Delta wave, but notice how low cases numbers went and stayed stable after the wave. (but could also be about numbers tested)
I’d be very cautious about any numbers coming out of indo. 90% of the people there who get covid wouldn’t even get tested so their stats wouldn’t even be showing the true numbers of covid.
donweather wrote:I’d be very cautious about any numbers coming out of indo. 90% of the people there who get covid wouldn’t even get tested so their stats wouldn’t even be showing the true numbers of covid.
Yeah good point don. That’s true
burleigh wrote:Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.
You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.
Stok wrote:burleigh wrote:Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.
You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.
I hate to break the news Stok, having an education doesn't make you smart. You're a fine example.
Stok wrote:burleigh wrote:Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.
You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.
I wouldn’t give too much credit in owning a McMansion, JetSki and a Jeep.
Roadkill wrote:Stok wrote:burleigh wrote:Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.
You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.
I wouldn’t give too much credit in owning a McMansion, JetSki and a Jeep.
burleigh is a mediocre individual….no great heights would have been obtained in anything. :)
while that is true donweather... deaths
and sickness in the streets are a pretty clear measure...
indo got smashed in the delta wave, sick crew everywhere, hospitals overflowing with tents in carparks, and some pretty reliable, but not overwhelming, corresponding death statistics...
the covid sites that follow the testing and cases pretty much followed the patterns perfectly, even as rudimentary as they are...
though I would argue the real case numbers are at at least 10x more than the actual cases reported... probably more like 20x ++
as indo points out, cases steadily going up now with omncron, the bali numbers went as low as 1 - 2 new cases a day a month or so ago, after recording almost 2000 cases a day through delta...
todày they are 96, coming off a long running average of around 200 cases a day throughout the pandemic
I'd say omicron is already rife, the less virilant strain means many people just will not get tested and / or not end up in the medical system / statistics...
'it's just the flu bro'
now...
hopefully...
@Roadkill, all on finance of course
@Burleigh, let me guess, you have street smarts?
Stok wrote:@Roadkill, all on finance of course
@Burleigh, let me guess, you have street smarts?
I am just average. Nothing too lofty attained myself. No real street smarts.
Just an average house…which makes me happy.
@sypkan, do you have actual reliable sources on the streets of indo?
Remember, covid is mild enough that it's not unusual for one person to not know anyone who's died from it. So knowing one or two locals, or even 10 or 20 locals, doesn't really give you the whole picture of millions of people spread across islands.
dude, I know people who have died of it
and I follow legit. stats
I'm not the denialist / conspiracy theorist / anti-vax nutter you are so desperately trying to paint me as...
but carry on...
champ
So...you follow legit stat's, but have no doubt the stat's are overstated regarding vaccines. Seems a bit conflicting to me.
P.s. love being called champ, very validating for me ;)
Roadkill wrote:Roadkill wrote:Stok wrote:burleigh wrote:Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.
You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.
I wouldn’t give too much credit in owning a McMansion, JetSki and a Jeep.
burleigh is a mediocre individual….no great heights would have been obtained in anything. :)
Under 40 and created 3 successful businesses that now allow me time with my kids, to surf and enjoy life would be a success in my eyes.
And also the freedom to not be jabbed with the love juice.
But carrry on
Stok wrote:So...you follow legit stat's, but have no doubt the stat's are overstated regarding vaccines. Seems a bit conflicting to me.
P.s. love being called champ, very validating for me ;)
mate you're conflicting
and desperately putting words in my mouth now...
either stop it... or go harder...
champ
and you got a reply on indo there doc.?
the numbers are all available
Im not making shit up
life pretty much normal... oz a shitshow..
how?
just a hypothesis...
a guess... an idea...
a desperate ( but dismissive) explanation perhaps...
still waiting
burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:Roadkill wrote:Stok wrote:burleigh wrote:Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.
You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.
I wouldn’t give too much credit in owning a McMansion, JetSki and a Jeep.
burleigh is a mediocre individual….no great heights would have been obtained in anything. :)
Under 40 and created 3 successful businesses that now allow me time with my kids, to surf and enjoy life would be a success in my eyes.
And also the freedom to not be jabbed with the love juice.
But carrry on
Anonymous poster posts post with zero proof.
Gotcha.
I'm picturing 3 MLMs and pyramid schemes there Burleigh ;)
donweather wrote:I’d be very cautious about any numbers coming out of indo. 90% of the people there who get covid wouldn’t even get tested so their stats wouldn’t even be showing the true numbers of covid.
Thats true, but you still have to go of something, i tend to agree with Sypkan's points below.
Reports from my wife's family is the place in her city where you can go and quarantine is full again, it went empty for a long time and hospitals went empty from Covid cases that were previously literally overflowing, no reports on hospitals yet though.
sypkan wrote:while that is true donweather... deaths
and sickness in the streets are a pretty clear measure...indo got smashed in the delta wave, sick crew everywhere, hospitals overflowing with tents in carparks, and some pretty reliable, but not overwhelming, corresponding death statistics...
the covid sites that follow the testing and cases pretty much followed the patterns perfectly, even as rudimentary as they are...
though I would argue the real case numbers are at at least 10x more than the actual cases reported... probably more like 20x ++
as indo points out, cases steadily going up now with omncron, the bali numbers went as low as 1 - 2 new cases a day a month or so ago, after recording almost 2000 cases a day through delta...
todày they are 96, coming off a long running average of around 200 cases a day throughout the pandemic
I'd say omicron is already rife, the less virilant strain means many people just will not get tested and / or not end up in the medical system / statistics...
'it's just the flu bro'
now...
hopefully...
I think it's going to be interesting to see the stats because like you say, being milder many might not get tested, but like you say even with delta it would be a tint fraction of real cases.
Blowin wrote:Alana_a wrote:gsco wrote:Stok wrote:Also - @gsco, see what you've done? Don't encourage BD....for all of our sakes.
Just a small deflection of blame there... I'd personally hold myself accountable for arguing with someone all night in an online forum, as though they're actually my actions that I chose to do and was hence responsible for myself.
I think you make some great contributions to the debate but you seem to get offside with a large chunk of people in here by thinking you're smarter and more informed than them, openly presenting yourself as such and as some kind of gatekeeper of wisdom, and openly label and write them off as basically uneducated, uninformed, etc, anti vaxers, with mental problems.
I made the same mistake when I first started contributing whereby I thought I was smarter, more educated and better at debate etc than these people in here and treated them like that, but I was quickly humbled or at least set upon and fairly relentlessly abused until I treated them with more respect and as equal human beings.
I'm not perfect and am in no way repository of knowledge or intelligence, and although I've made some contributions people seemed to like, it's clear that I myself am a little unstable and don't handle the whole covid situation very well personally, wrt to whole greyness of the situation, lockdowns, boosters, child vaccinations, the media, government incompetency, etc... But at least I now treat people in here as equals.
I don't like how people keep trying to convince BD that he has mental problems and needs help. I spent the better part of my late teens and 20s toiling away with shovel in hand on concreting job sites under the hot Aussie sun with a bunch of solid battlers who seem just like him, who wear their hearts on their sleeves, think for themselves and live by their beliefs, and never pack it in or blindly accept authority. Even though I went on to do a masters and PhD, and then work in the finance industry, one thing I've learnt is I'm not in any way smarter or better than those guys I used to slave away with digging holes in the dirt.
Happy Australia Day.
And BD I hope your friend is ok and pulls through.
What a beautiful , honest post.
Now let the shit show begin
Yep. Was excellent.
Stay strong BD . Whatever your choices. Don’t let the negativity and spite of a couple of these clowns influence your situation. Things are good. Coming up to a good time of year for waves in your location.
Cheers Blowie. Had our differences on here, but a new found respect for you and your stand for what's right. Cheers GSCO and crew. Good to see the cream rise to the top. And yep Goofy! haha. I think i've made my point for now. ;-)
Lakeland Regional joins national study to see if ivermectin is effective against COVID-19 https://www.theledger.com/story/news/coronavirus/2022/01/23/does-ivermec.... It’s been over a year since Dr Kory fronted the NIH who have a neutral stance on ivermectin . Cant rush these things. I see they have supply issues same as the Oxford trials in UK which were also put on hold .
Stok wrote:I'm picturing 3 MLMs and pyramid schemes there Burleigh ;)
Do you want to buy some essential oils? Haha
bluediamond wrote:Cheers Blowie. Had our differences on here, but a new found respect for you and your stand for what's right. Cheers GSCO and crew. Good to see the cream rise to the top. And yep Goofy! haha. I think i've made my point for now. ;-)
Made your point?
I was genuinely concerned for your well-being with the tyrade of childish insults and straight out confusing posts.
Actually glad to see you are OK.
But seriously - LOL - the shit you posted yesterday was like an insight to the insanity the anti vax crew all have as their underlying foundations of their ideas. Dark, repressed, frightened and fanciful thoughts. 80% of the world are dumb c*nts! Hahahah.
The embarrassing thing is you applaud Blowin for his stand for what's right.....you really are long gone mate. No one is trying to get you, no one is trying to do anything other than what will actually provide the best overall outcome for all of us. Sure, there'd be some carnts capitalising off this debacle, on both sides, but the government and experts who advise them are actually not out to get you - and you want to fight them?
Coming from hermit kingdom WA, it does make sense that you're more scared of the injection than the virus, but all around the world, the virus has ripped through populations. The 100k reactions to the jab compared to the 48M doses given in Aus would pale in comparison to the damage this virus would do unchecked in an unvaxxed population. It's horrible what happened to your friend, but it doesn't make you right, and everyone else wrong.
Stok wrote:bluediamond wrote:Cheers Blowie. Had our differences on here, but a new found respect for you and your stand for what's right. Cheers GSCO and crew. Good to see the cream rise to the top. And yep Goofy! haha. I think i've made my point for now. ;-)
Made your point?
I was genuinely concerned for your well-being with the tyrade of childish insults and straight out confusing posts.
Actually glad to see you are OK.
But seriously - LOL - the shit you posted yesterday was like an insight to the insanity the anti vax crew all have as their underlying foundations of their ideas. Dark, repressed, frightened and fanciful thoughts. 80% of the world are dumb c*nts! Hahahah.
The embarrassing thing is you applaud Blowin for his stand for what's right.....you really are long gone mate. No one is trying to get you, no one is trying to do anything other than what will actually provide the best overall outcome for all of us. Sure, there'd be some carnts capitalising off this debacle, on both sides, but the government and experts who advise them are actually not out to get you - and you want to fight them?
Coming from hermit kingdom WA, it does make sense that you're more scared of the injection than the virus, but all around the world, the virus has ripped through populations. The 100k reactions to the jab compared to the 48M doses given in Aus would pale in comparison to the damage this virus would do unchecked in an unvaxxed population. It's horrible what happened to your friend, but it doesn't make you right, and everyone else wrong.
yawwwwn.....zzzzzzzzzzzz.......
burleigh wrote:bluediamond wrote:burleigh wrote:blindboy wrote:supafreak going back to the vaccination of children the short answer is that, at some stage, they should be vaccinated. There are arguments based on risk/benefit that make some sense now but they won't in a few months time when the case numbers spike with the removal of restrictions and the impact of Omicron. The risk of serious cases in children may be small but the risk of the vaccine is still much lower. If children are not vaccinated it will spread rapidly amongst them exposing those children with existing health problems to an unacceptable risk. Similarly unvaccinated children will pose an increased risk to any vulnerable adults they live with.
As someone in a vulnerable age group I am happy to wait for a booster, one because I am able to take measures to avoid the current low risk of infection, two because I would like to have peak immunity at the peak.of the risk which is a couple of months down the track. If I had to commute everyday on crowded public transport my attitude would probably be different.You want to vaccinate healthy young kids to keep you safe? Potentially put kids at risk to make you feel ok?
You are sick mate and that’s child abuse.People have got the jab through pressure of losing their job, I hate to see the pressure the corrupt government is going to apply to try and get jabs in kids arms all without releasing any data.
I bet my house that bluey will get vaccinated early next year.So ahh, Burleigh, doe's your place have a lap pool?? A little aquarium with live prawns and crayfish prime for scooping out? I like to change my dressing gowns daily so hoping theres a fresh supply lined up.. I'm hoping it has a raised deck overlooking the ocean for a celebratory cigar in said gown!! hahaha. :-P
(btw...assuming early next year meant January!)Im a simple man BD, no lap pool sorry!
I also believe that sea creatures belong in the sea, so you wont find any crustaceans in my home either.
I do own a dressing gown though, and linen sheets.
hahaha. Classic Burleigh. Keep up your good work legend.
sypkan wrote:Stok wrote:So...you follow legit stat's, but have no doubt the stat's are overstated regarding vaccines. Seems a bit conflicting to me.
P.s. love being called champ, very validating for me ;)
mate you're conflicting
and desperately putting words in my mouth now...
either stop it... or go harder...
champ
I think you meant Chump there Syp.
Chump, Gimp and the VicGronk.
Loving this spiel of mental health issues these three point at me. If only they saw the week i just lived. hahaha. I do have a very blessed life.
bluediamond wrote:yawwwwn.....zzzzzzzzzzzz.......
Hahaha ok....you got me!
I guess reality is boring, much better to escape into a world where there's a villain (Big Pharma, scientists and Bill Gates), a heroes (Malone, McCullough, Robert Kennedy, Joe Rogan, Malcolm Roberts etc.).
The big war is coming BD, get ready to fight ;)
Here you go Dr Dick and stok , 2 more doctors you can put on your list of you tube nut jobs .
Supafreak wrote:Here you go Dr Dick and stok , 2 more doctors you can put on your list of you tube nut jobs . https://youtu.be/wkz1ln5AJ5Q
Thanks Supa, will do. BTW who's dr dick?
Funny isn't it, how there's this long list of doctors popping up on your YouTube searches, discrediting vaccines or the way they've formed the basis of our pandemic response. It's almost like there's some form of ALGORITH!!! in social media which is prone to showing you what you want to see.
Stok wrote:bluediamond wrote:yawwwwn.....zzzzzzzzzzzz.......
Hahaha ok....you got me!
I guess reality is boring, much better to escape into a world where there's a villain (Big Pharma, scientists and Bill Gates), a heroes (Malone, McCullough, Robert Kennedy, Joe Rogan, Malcolm Roberts etc.).
The big war is coming BD, get ready to fight ;)
It appears Stok is loosing it. which is completely normal when you are on the wrong side of history.
An education cant bring you happiness.
Something i forgot to address, how can you listen/like Dr Greger who has kept pretty quiet about Covid in the last 18 months however is very much a food is your medicine Dr, yet have these fucked up views/love for big pharma and this experimental vaccine?
Here is a link to the guy above Supafreak.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/publichealthpolicy/healthpolicy/96635
He seems very keen on vaxxing kids. Is that the message you wanted to convey.
Read the BTL comments on the piece above from doctors.
Not you Burleigh, you'll have a heart attack.
BTW, the Slater thread got discontinued i think, due to the obvious deterioration of comments, but is it at all possible to re post Blowin's comments on it re Slater SN crew?? One of the best post's i've ever read on SN and i know alot agree with me.
@burleigh, you see, because of have an education I know not to listen to someone who's expertise lies in nutrition, about pandemic response. Must be hard for you!
@FR, just had a quick glance at those comments....a world away from this thread....
@stok is edumacated Burleigh. He's claiming it like a status symbol!!! haha. Might be time to retreat!!
Funny thing is, i don't remember going to uni, but i'm sure i was there!!!!
Stok wrote:Supafreak wrote:Here you go Dr Dick and stok , 2 more doctors you can put on your list of you tube nut jobs . https://youtu.be/wkz1ln5AJ5Q
Thanks Supa, will do. BTW who's dr dick?
Funny isn't it, how there's this long list of doctors popping up on your YouTube searches, discrediting vaccines or the way they've formed the basis of our pandemic response. It's almost like there's some form of ALGORITH!!! in social media which is prone to showing you what you want to see.
If you bother to watch the video you will be very surprised, but we both know you won’t look .
Stok wrote:@burleigh, you see, because of have an education I know not to listen to someone who's expertise lies in nutrition, about pandemic response. Must be hard for you!
@FR, just had a quick glance at those comments....a world away from this thread....
Great education Stok.
Here you go, it wasn’t hard.
A career in public health specialising in emerging infectious diseases.
freeride76 wrote:Here is a link to the guy above Supafreak.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/publichealthpolicy/healthpolicy/96635
He seems very keen on vaxxing kids. Is that the message you wanted to convey.
Read the BTL comments on the piece above from doctors.
Not you Burleigh, you'll have a heart attack.
No the message was around boosters , I’m very aware of who the Dr is and his position on vaccination for kids . Its worth watching freeride , particularly the subject about mandates for 20 yo university males that are double vaccinated have also had covid and now will be expelled if they don’t get a booster . The video is 1 hour and covers a range of subjects around covid, vaccines and the past .
The world, as i see it. Trust the government? You're kidding me right??
@supa I waste enough time on here as it is, do you really think in going to sit here and futher review your YouTube research like I'm your teacher grading your assignments?
@BD clowns college doesn't count mate!
Yes...for the 10 or 15 or so lurkers who check in on this thread...this is what it has come to....insults about being educated!!!!
bluediamond wrote:BTW, the Slater thread got discontinued i think, due to the obvious deterioration of comments, but is it at all possible to re post Blowin's comments on it re Slater SN crew?? One of the best post's i've ever read on SN and i know alot agree with me.
I think that was the comment about Kelly in the 90s being the only guy on tour that was actually treating his body with respect and being a professional while the rest of the tour at the time was getting wasted after every event???
That was a good comment, i was actually thinking the same thing before i even read it.
At times you can think Kelly is a bit nutty with his diet and thoughts, but it's 100% worked for him, nobody every thought it would be possible to compete at his age, when Occy won his tittle at 30 that was old to be on the tour.
The young guys obviously surf better than him now but he is still by far the best surfer for his age in the world and super fit, health and flexible, and its obvious he knows his body better than anyone else.
Agree it was a very good post from Blowin, even if i might not have agreed with everything he wrote.
Blowin for Swellnet president. The voice of reason and the man to keep the Pfizer princesses in check.
Stok wrote:@supa I waste enough time on here as it is, do you really think in going to sit here and futher review your YouTube research like I'm your teacher grading your assignments?
@BD clowns college doesn't count mate!
Yes...for the 10 or 15 or so lurkers who check in on this thread...this is what it has come to....insults about being educated!!!!
You’re hilarious stok , you actually have no idea who the 2 doctors are or what they are discussing and you dismiss them because they are on you tube . Well guess what , everyone is on YouTube, Fauci , Collins CDC , FDA , NIH so you may be right it’s all bullshit.
indo-dreaming wrote:bluediamond wrote:BTW, the Slater thread got discontinued i think, due to the obvious deterioration of comments, but is it at all possible to re post Blowin's comments on it re Slater SN crew?? One of the best post's i've ever read on SN and i know alot agree with me.
That was a good comment, i was actually thinking the same thing before i even read it.
At times you can think Kelly is a bit nutty with his diet and thoughts, but it's 100% worked for him, nobody every thought it would be possible to compete at his age, when Occy won his tittle at 30 that was old to be on the tour.
The young guys surf better than him obviously but he is still by far the best surfer for his age in the world and super fit, health and flexible.
Agree it was a very good post from Blowin with some good points.
Yeah that's the one Indo. It's baffling that folk can't understand that Slater sits on a perch waaaaay above most of us, as far as humans encountered on his world wide journeys, waves ridden, experiences lived and amount of people he knows. Cultures, sheer geography of space he's covered... Doesn't make him holier than though, he's got his faults no doubt, like we all do, but to completely ignore the fact the threads of his life lived are alot more diverse and deeper and integrated deeply with other humans, compared to the average human is ridiculous. Doesn't make him better or worse....just more experienced and someone definitely worth listening to!
Also, good on you for your integrity and staying true to your beliefs on this thread. You're post's are always level headed and non emotive (unlike my own!!) Again, butted heads with you many times....at times pretty gnarly, but nothing but respect for keeping a completely open mind and re evaluating things as they develop. Cheers.
Stok wrote:@supa I waste enough time on here as it is, do you really think in going to sit here and futher review your YouTube research like I'm your teacher grading your assignments?
@BD clowns college doesn't count mate!
Yes...for the 10 or 15 or so lurkers who check in on this thread...this is what it has come to....insults about being educated!!!!
So Macquarie University doesn't cut it in your world Stok. You really are a deadset wanker. I'm enjoying watching you hang yourself.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia