COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

sypkan wrote:

'Wow, so mean.'

well you're the one that waltzes in with paragraphs and paragraphs of abuse, belittlings, and name calling...

largely from a position of ignorance it would seem

from an 'academic' no less

waddle waddle quack...

Fucken ay! +1 to this.

@stok, @toadgimp, @pricktoadkill, i'll remind you exactly why you are all deadshits and not worth respecting. My original post tonight was about a friend who was in very ill health. Her prognosis currently could go either way. While you all belittled me, my beliefs and chose to do all you can to shut down my thoughts, there's one thing you all high and mighty, fighting for the greater good of society and caring so much about everybodies health..forgot to do. To at least acknowledge my friend and wish her the best. You lot are the lowest kind. She needs all the love at the moment to help her along, yet you lot couldn't even acknowledge her existence, let alone wish her well. Very sad.

Bd, a couple of 6 packs later. Alcohol and SN mixed resulted in a whole bunch of stupid posts.

Busy night

Stok wrote:

Also - @gsco, see what you've done? Don't encourage BD....for all of our sakes.

Just a small deflection of blame there... I'd personally hold myself accountable for arguing with someone all night in an online forum, as though they're actually my actions that I chose to do and was hence responsible for myself.

I think you make some great contributions to the debate but you seem to get offside with a large chunk of people in here by thinking you're smarter and more informed than them, openly presenting yourself as such and as some kind of gatekeeper of wisdom, and openly label and write them off as basically uneducated, uninformed, etc, anti vaxers, with mental problems.

I made the same mistake when I first started contributing whereby I thought I was smarter, more educated and better at debate etc than these people in here and treated them like that, but I was quickly humbled or at least set upon and fairly relentlessly abused until I treated them with more respect and as equal human beings.

I'm not perfect and am in no way repository of knowledge or intelligence, and although I've made some contributions people seemed to like, it's clear that I myself am a little unstable and don't handle the whole covid situation very well personally, wrt to whole greyness of the situation, lockdowns, boosters, child vaccinations, the media, government incompetency, etc... But at least I now treat people in here as equals.

I don't like how people keep trying to convince BD that he has mental problems and needs help. I spent the better part of my late teens and 20s toiling away with shovel in hand on concreting job sites under the hot Aussie sun with a bunch of solid battlers who seem just like him, who wear their hearts on their sleeves, think for themselves and live by their beliefs, and never pack it in or blindly accept authority. Even though I went on to do a masters and PhD, and then work in the finance industry, one thing I've learnt is I'm not in any way smarter or better than those guys I used to slave away with digging holes in the dirt.

Happy Australia Day.

And BD I hope your friend is ok and pulls through.

gsco wrote:

Stok wrote:

Also - @gsco, see what you've done? Don't encourage BD....for all of our sakes.

Just a small deflection of blame there... I'd personally hold myself accountable for arguing with someone all night in an online forum, as though they're actually my actions that I chose to do and was hence responsible for myself.

I think you make some great contributions to the debate but you seem to get offside with a large chunk of people in here by thinking you're smarter and more informed than them, openly presenting yourself as such and as some kind of gatekeeper of wisdom, and openly label and write them off as basically uneducated, uninformed, etc, anti vaxers, with mental problems.

I made the same mistake when I first started contributing whereby I thought I was smarter, more educated and better at debate etc than these people in here and treated them like that, but I was quickly humbled or at least set upon and fairly relentlessly abused until I treated them with more respect and as equal human beings.

I'm not perfect and am in no way repository of knowledge or intelligence, and although I've made some contributions people seemed to like, it's clear that I myself am a little unstable and don't handle the whole covid situation very well personally, wrt to whole greyness of the situation, lockdowns, boosters, child vaccinations, the media, government incompetency, etc... But at least I now treat people in here as equals.

I don't like how people keep trying to convince BD that he has mental problems and needs help. I spent the better part of my late teens and 20s toiling away with shovel in hand on concreting job sites under the hot Aussie sun with a bunch of solid battlers who seem just like him, who wear their hearts on their sleeves, think for themselves and live by their beliefs, and never pack it in or blindly accept authority. Even though I went on to do a masters and PhD, and then work in the finance industry, one thing I've learnt is I'm not in any way smarter or better than those guys I used to slave away with digging holes in the dirt.

Happy Australia Day.

And BD I hope your friend is ok and pulls through.

What a beautiful , honest post.

Now let the shit show begin

Alana_a wrote:

gsco wrote:

Stok wrote:

Also - @gsco, see what you've done? Don't encourage BD....for all of our sakes.

Just a small deflection of blame there... I'd personally hold myself accountable for arguing with someone all night in an online forum, as though they're actually my actions that I chose to do and was hence responsible for myself.

I think you make some great contributions to the debate but you seem to get offside with a large chunk of people in here by thinking you're smarter and more informed than them, openly presenting yourself as such and as some kind of gatekeeper of wisdom, and openly label and write them off as basically uneducated, uninformed, etc, anti vaxers, with mental problems.

I made the same mistake when I first started contributing whereby I thought I was smarter, more educated and better at debate etc than these people in here and treated them like that, but I was quickly humbled or at least set upon and fairly relentlessly abused until I treated them with more respect and as equal human beings.

I'm not perfect and am in no way repository of knowledge or intelligence, and although I've made some contributions people seemed to like, it's clear that I myself am a little unstable and don't handle the whole covid situation very well personally, wrt to whole greyness of the situation, lockdowns, boosters, child vaccinations, the media, government incompetency, etc... But at least I now treat people in here as equals.

I don't like how people keep trying to convince BD that he has mental problems and needs help. I spent the better part of my late teens and 20s toiling away with shovel in hand on concreting job sites under the hot Aussie sun with a bunch of solid battlers who seem just like him, who wear their hearts on their sleeves, think for themselves and live by their beliefs, and never pack it in or blindly accept authority. Even though I went on to do a masters and PhD, and then work in the finance industry, one thing I've learnt is I'm not in any way smarter or better than those guys I used to slave away with digging holes in the dirt.

Happy Australia Day.

And BD I hope your friend is ok and pulls through.

What a beautiful , honest post.

Now let the shit show begin

Yep. Was excellent.

Stay strong BD . Whatever your choices. Don’t let the negativity and spite of a couple of these clowns influence your situation. Things are good. Coming up to a good time of year for waves in your location.

Regardless of what a small fringe cult chooses to believe the history books will show that there was a world wide pandemic which killed millions and thanks to the planets greatest combined effort vaccines were developed which saved millions of lives. The only clowns around here are those who refuse to believe what the rest of the world knows to be true.

That will be interesting to see: how history records this pandemic.

And whether people change their opinions based on that.

gsco wrote:

Just a small deflection of blame there... I'd personally hold myself accountable for arguing with someone all night in an online forum, as though they're actually my actions that I chose to do and was hence responsible for myself.

I think you make some great contributions to the debate but you seem to get offside with a large chunk of people in here by thinking you're smarter and more informed than them, openly presenting yourself as such and as some kind of gatekeeper of wisdom, and openly label and write them off as basically uneducated, uninformed, etc, anti vaxers, with mental problems.

I made the same mistake when I first started contributing whereby I thought I was smarter, more educated and better at debate etc than these people in here and treated them like that, but I was quickly humbled or at least set upon and fairly relentlessly abused until I treated them with more respect and as equal human beings.

I'm not perfect and am in no way repository of knowledge or intelligence, and although I've made some contributions people seemed to like, it's clear that I myself am a little unstable and don't handle the whole covid situation very well personally, wrt to whole greyness of the situation, lockdowns, boosters, child vaccinations, the media, government incompetency, etc... But at least I now treat people in here as equals.

I don't like how people keep trying to convince BD that he has mental problems and needs help. I spent the better part of my late teens and 20s toiling away with shovel in hand on concreting job sites under the hot Aussie sun with a bunch of solid battlers who seem just like him, who wear their hearts on their sleeves, think for themselves and live by their beliefs, and never pack it in or blindly accept authority. Even though I went on to do a masters and PhD, and then work in the finance industry, one thing I've learnt is I'm not in any way smarter or better than those guys I used to slave away with digging holes in the dirt.

Happy Australia Day.

And BD I hope your friend is ok and pulls through.

Morning GSCO, hope you enjoy your day off.

You seemingly had some conflicting elitism and intellectualism issues, which it sounds like you worked through. Kudos.

I too learnt a long, long time ago that I'm no different to others, that knowledge, life skills and wisdom transcends professions and education.

I'm no philosopher, but a fundamental, backbone part of general intelligence is understanding the limits of one's own self knowledge - and this is a severely lacking factor in the online, vaccine discussion world (and particularly this forum). The stakes are high with covid, and the importance of getting information from the right places, and not spreading misinformation is at an all time high.

As I'm sure is the case with most people who post here, I don't really care what others think of me. I'm not worried about protecting any reputation - but most of what I say is done with a smile, to get a chuckle out of the other side I'm arguing with. At the end of the day life is short, we're all banging our heads against brick walls here - have a laugh while doing it if you can.

Finally, I'm actually not writing BD off as someone with issues. I'm actually concerned for their well-being, as their posts clearly turned a corner yesterday - hopefully they are just getting fired up and wearing hearts on sleeve stuff. But who really knows.

Alana_a wrote:

Now let the shit show begin

Lol.

Doesn't have to be like this though, does it. People could just stop sharing propaganda from grifters.

freeride76 wrote:

That will be interesting to see: how history records this pandemic.

And whether people change their opinions based on that.

I'd guess it would take a generation or two before people start agreeing on things.

There's certainly been disputes in history over the years, but with the online propaganda and echo chambers (on both sides....), this time will be different for sure.

old-dog wrote:

Regardless of what a small fringe cult chooses to believe the history books will show that there was a world wide pandemic which killed millions and thanks to the planets greatest combined effort vaccines were developed which saved millions of lives. The only clowns around here are those who refuse to believe what the rest of the world knows to be true.

History books probably won't write too fondly about people who refused to take part in or conspired against the fight against covid too.

freeride76 wrote:

That will be interesting to see: how history records this pandemic.

And whether people change their opinions based on that.

Wasn't there a lot of shame that came out of the Spanish Flu in the US so not much was written?

And this https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-lonelines...

Stok wrote:

old-dog wrote:

Regardless of what a small fringe cult chooses to believe the history books will show that there was a world wide pandemic which killed millions and thanks to the planets greatest combined effort vaccines were developed which saved millions of lives. The only clowns around here are those who refuse to believe what the rest of the world knows to be true.

History books probably won't write too fondly about people who refused to take part in or conspired against the fight against covid too.

There are always 2 stories to history. The white man version and what really happened.

This will be no different.

Stok wrote:

freeride76 wrote:

That will be interesting to see: how history records this pandemic.

And whether people change their opinions based on that.

I'd guess it would take a generation or two before people start agreeing on things.

There's certainly been disputes in history over the years, but with the online propaganda and echo chambers (on both sides....), this time will be different for sure.

I've been thinking about this question a lot lately.

I wonder:
Is history ever recorded accurately, unbiased and factually?

Is there such a thing as an unbiased, impartial, factual and neutral recording of history?

Is it recorded by those in power and with influence, from their perspectives?

Is it ever recorded by "the people" from their perspectives and experiences?

Is it largely recorded by academic, intellectual elites with all their layers upon layers of over-complication, overanalysing, mental gymnastics and theatrics, and within academic conceptual theories and frameworks of history and sociology etc...?

One thing I think is a real possibility is there is a very large number of elite scientists, professionals, academics, politicians, etc, from immunologists to epidemiologists to economists to psychologists to biostatisticians, etc, who didn't agree with the world's, or at least their individual nation's, response to covid. They were vocal and outspoken about it, and were subsequently marginalised and basically lost their careers and "credibility". Cancel culture stuff.

They are very likely not going to let this one go. They'll likely devote the rest of their lives to getting to what they believe is the bottom of this and the truth. A large number of scientists will likely spend decades sifting through all the clinical trial data, experimental design, research reports, etc, of the vaccine companies, and every piece of information governments based their decisions on. They will likely spend decades analysing the real world clinical, medical, economic, etc, data generated in the past two+ years.

This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here.

The vaccine companies had better be very certain they got things right here. A very large chunk of the scientific, political and academic etc community - actually entire nations - has a personal, professional and commercial interest in completely bringing these big corporates down and holding them to account.

"This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here."

Most likely but due to the reasons you mentioned prior to that, I think we will come to some basic, shared understanding of reality.

Or least agree on the rough parameters of it.

freeride76 wrote:

That will be interesting to see: how history records this pandemic.

And whether people change their opinions based on that.

When its over I suspect excess mortality will be the yardstick.
ie the strategy of a given country will be not just be judged on covid deaths alone

I am reminded of an awful time in Australia’s history when an innocent woman was vilified and her life made hell by the majority of the Australian public. She was relentlessly attacked, bullied and mocked for years on end for something she didn’t do. Imprisoned. Her life destroyed. The media had a huge part to play in that. Cashing in on an innocent person and fuelling cruelty and hate. Looking back it’s a dark stain on Australian history . A reminder of what not to be.

https://m.

https://m.

https://m.

You make some good points gsco.
What's the next move from the government once a large percentage of the population have had their booster?
Keep boosting every 3 months until somehow they've achieved 80% of the population within 3 months of their last dose?
I think that is unachievable.

WA will be an interesting experience.
When do they open?
When will they be maximally vaccinated?
Given that a lot of people are due for their booster now if they leave it too long then those who have had their booster will be past the 3 months.
So when do they open?
They may find themselves ironically in a situation whereby only a very small percentage are within the 3 months of their last dose and therefore, in essence, are an unvaccinated population despite obviously having spent millions on vaccinating everyone.

tylerdurden wrote:

You make some good points gsco.
What's the next move from the government once a large percentage of the population have had their booster?
Keep boosting every 3 months until somehow they've achieved 80% of the population within 3 months of their last dose?
I think that is unachievable.

WA will be an interesting experience.
When do they open?
When will they be maximally vaccinated?
Given that a lot of people are due for their booster now if they leave it too long then those who have had their booster will be past the 3 months.
So when do they open?
They may find themselves ironically in a situation whereby only a very small percentage are within the 3 months of their last dose and therefore, in essence, are an unvaccinated population despite obviously having spent millions on vaccinating everyone.

Doesn’t it sound fucking mad that this is a genuine conversation. Boosters every three months? For what is most part a mild flu like virus.
Especially a vaccine that was developed for the original wuhan strain which from what I understand I’m not circulating anymore.

History will compare covid with the 1918 flu.
1918 Flu:
Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

... it was much scarier than covid and with broader impact across age groups and the healthy. No one was safe.

Covid's tendency to affect older and certain vulnerable groups offered the possibility of a more nuanced and targeted response than a 1918 type pandemic required. Protect key groups rather than a one size fits all and lockdown everybody.

Such an approach for covid could have had markedly less undesirable direct and indirect social, economic and health consequences than we have had . The approach adopted was for a host of reasons - more a matter of media fear memes, muddle through reactive management, a desire to keep it simple, a need to cover your ass and avoid "brave" decisions than some conspiracy. The moving target also made it hard as new variants were unpredictable and the virus had many weird systemic health effects on some people. As did the highly nimble virus who managed to sidestep most plans and make a fool of many smart people.

That debate is and will happen in many informal and scientific forms but will probably be drowned out the noise of the decision makers in their desire to avoid blame, pretend we got it right, could not foresee and hide the costs etc.

Maybe some good lessons learned will be agreed upon but that is pretty murky water at the moment.

This is the problem with “health”.

You have a clinically obese doctor giving you medical advise on the NSW health social media page.

https://fb.watch/aMg5tysPdl/

We all knew it was nothing about your health when they kept bottle shops open but closed gyms and locked people inside for 23 hours.

Cross-wired history of shame...continues

Hymie says..."I guess we're not wired the same...."
Octavia replies : "Don't you see, people would point & say...Disgusting! He's [+] & She's [-]"

1967 this [+][-] joke drew giggles from the audience...naturally, coz it's hilarious!
2022 VIP (factcheckerz) ordered the destruction of this [+][-] misinformation fuelling the resistance!

Always was! Always will be...mandated VIP Land.

overthefalls wrote:

burleigh wrote:

Yeah, this is how they promote “health”

If you want a golden gaytime, get one from the shops with no side effects.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CZAjtnUPaEE/?utm_medium=copy_link

Hey Burleigh, what did you think of Washington State’s “Joints for Jabs” initiative last year? I reckon they might have been onto something! There are some studies that suggest CBD might help combat covid. Perhaps, combining conventional Western medicine with traditional herbal medicine is the way foward.

https://www.vice.com/amp/en/article/bvn743/oral-cbd-prevented-covid-19-i...

Don’t know anything about it, but if a natural medicine is given then it sounds promising. Much better than a maccas voucher

Octavia, was pretty fucking hot.

Craig wrote:

What kicked everyone into gear here in Sydney and Melbourne was Delta starting to take off, no coercion, just being able to finally get some form of protection for it.

No offence Craig but you can’t be the voice of two of Australia’s biggest city’s.

Maybe in your circle of friends. That’s it.

Craig wrote:

I'm giving on the ground accounts what transpired down here.

A big proportion were fairly blasé about getting vaccinated until Delta started spreading like wild fire and then it gave everyone a little kick up the but to protect themselves.

Speaking to many, not just a close circle of friends and this was the general feeling and motivation across the city. IE looks like we're going to get it so get vaccinated.

Without the daily fear campaigns, inflated hospital numbers, no transparency on deaths, lockdowns, campaigns to vaccinate for freedoms & Jobs threatened there is absolutely no way people would have got vaccinated in the numbers they did.

freeride76 wrote:

"This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here."

Most likely but due to the reasons you mentioned prior to that, I think we will come to some basic, shared understanding of reality.

Or least agree on the rough parameters of it.

I reckon a true accounting will be forty or fifty years away. It’s been too politicised for frank reporting.

How long before we see a settled outcome on the Trump was a Russian agent! / Trump was unfairly delegitimised and persecuted by a partisan corporate media Routines?

Craig wrote:

Thanks Burleigh for hypothesising.

I personally didn't think we'd get 80% with the rollout debacle, AZ side effects, hesitancy etc.

Whats your thoughts on the 3rd dose Craig? You think it will be mandatory? Will you be rolling up your sleeve? Whats the vibe in Sydney within the community?

Craig wrote:

I'm giving on the ground accounts what transpired down here.

A big proportion were fairly blasé about getting vaccinated until Delta started spreading like wild fire and then it gave everyone a little kick up the but to protect themselves.

Speaking to many, not just a close circle of friends and this was the general feeling and motivation across the city. IE looks like we're going to get it so get vaccinated.

I didn’t know one person below the age of 60 who thought like this. Even the over 60s were mostly ambivalent.

Craig wrote:

I'm giving on the ground accounts what transpired down here.

A big proportion were fairly blasé about getting vaccinated until Delta started spreading like wild fire and then it gave everyone a little kick up the but to protect themselves.

Speaking to many, not just a close circle of friends and this was the general feeling and motivation across the city. IE looks like we're going to get it so get vaccinated.

Same thing for me and many that I know. Delta was starting to spread outside of Sydney, and I needed it for work (health care), along with the flu shot. It was no big deal. I wasn't conned, was always going to get it, just wanted to give it 6 months or so after the first roll-outs to observe

bluediamond wrote:

burleigh wrote:

blindboy wrote:

supafreak going back to the vaccination of children the short answer is that, at some stage, they should be vaccinated. There are arguments based on risk/benefit that make some sense now but they won't in a few months time when the case numbers spike with the removal of restrictions and the impact of Omicron. The risk of serious cases in children may be small but the risk of the vaccine is still much lower. If children are not vaccinated it will spread rapidly amongst them exposing those children with existing health problems to an unacceptable risk. Similarly unvaccinated children will pose an increased risk to any vulnerable adults they live with.
As someone in a vulnerable age group I am happy to wait for a booster, one because I am able to take measures to avoid the current low risk of infection, two because I would like to have peak immunity at the peak.of the risk which is a couple of months down the track. If I had to commute everyday on crowded public transport my attitude would probably be different.

You want to vaccinate healthy young kids to keep you safe? Potentially put kids at risk to make you feel ok?
You are sick mate and that’s child abuse.

People have got the jab through pressure of losing their job, I hate to see the pressure the corrupt government is going to apply to try and get jabs in kids arms all without releasing any data.
I bet my house that bluey will get vaccinated early next year.

So ahh, Burleigh, doe's your place have a lap pool?? A little aquarium with live prawns and crayfish prime for scooping out? I like to change my dressing gowns daily so hoping theres a fresh supply lined up.. I'm hoping it has a raised deck overlooking the ocean for a celebratory cigar in said gown!! hahaha. :-P
(btw...assuming early next year meant January!)

Im a simple man BD, no lap pool sorry!

I also believe that sea creatures belong in the sea, so you wont find any crustaceans in my home either.

I do own a dressing gown though, and linen sheets.

Craig wrote:

With the wave passing I can't see the demand being anything like getting double vaccinated.

I'm in no rush to get the third but have extra time up my sleeve.

Very different to the vibe up here on the Gold Coast from my observations. I believe there will be huge hesitancy and not just because the wave has passed.

The lies and manipulation throughout the vaccination blitz have left a stain and its showing. Hardcore people with similar views to Vic and Co have told me they will not be getting a third.

Craig wrote:

Seeing as the Northern Beaches was one of the first to hit 90% it's much different vibe when you're in the thick of it.

I don’t know many in the Northern Beaches but I know plenty of crew around Sydney and South and the” Delta is coming!!!!” Vibe was not a thing at all.

Northern beaches seems to be a bit more fashion forward with whatever is trending on their fabulous social feeds though.

No one here gave much of a fuck. I don’t think that it’s because they’re detached from the threat, more just detached he’d from the social pressures to conform to the flighty frivolities of the mob.

As is evidenced by the lack of twin finned mid lengths, man buns and high waisted nappy bikinis .

Blowin wrote:

freeride76 wrote:

"This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here."

Most likely but due to the reasons you mentioned prior to that, I think we will come to some basic, shared understanding of reality.

Or least agree on the rough parameters of it.

I reckon a true accounting will be forty or fifty years away. It’s been too politicised for frank reporting.

How long before we see a settled outcome on the Trump was a Russian agent! / Trump was unfairly delegitimised and persecuted by a partisan corporate media Routines?

Mueller report already dealt with that.
I can't even seen any highly partisan democrat media still on that track.

freeride76 wrote:

Blowin wrote:

freeride76 wrote:

"This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here."

Most likely but due to the reasons you mentioned prior to that, I think we will come to some basic, shared understanding of reality.

Or least agree on the rough parameters of it.

I reckon a true accounting will be forty or fifty years away. It’s been too politicised for frank reporting.

How long before we see a settled outcome on the Trump was a Russian agent! / Trump was unfairly delegitimised and persecuted by a partisan corporate media Routines?

Mueller report already dealt with that.
I can't even seen any highly partisan democrat media still on that track.

You’d better not tell Blindboy. Or the Washington Post.

It’d break their hearts to hear that you’ve fallen for the Russian misinformation campaign.

Craig wrote:

With the wave passing I can't see the demand being anything like getting double vaccinated.

I'm in no rush to get the third but have extra time up my sleeve.

Most I know that have had 3…are not terribly concerned about getting another.
I have no real interest in getting a 4th shot at this stage.

The uptake on a 4th shot will be interesting.

"As is evidenced by the lack of twin finned mid lengths, man buns and high waisted nappy bikinis ."

aren't they a turn for the worst...

the high wasted nappy bikinis

fashion so funny, nothing attractive about them at all...

similar can be said for the other two examples

funniest thing is, a chick walks on beach in a 90's throwback high cut baywatch one piece... and all those once highly fashionable high waster nappy hotties suddenly look like a bunch of grandmas...

I'm in no hurry to get a third. If the next mutation goes back towards delta then I probably will. If it's a more severe version of omichron then I'll wait for the new omichron vaccine (due march?) If it's a less severe version of omichron (which I've probably had already) then probably not.

freeride76 wrote:

Blowin wrote:

freeride76 wrote:

"This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here."

Most likely but due to the reasons you mentioned prior to that, I think we will come to some basic, shared understanding of reality.

Or least agree on the rough parameters of it.

I reckon a true accounting will be forty or fifty years away. It’s been too politicised for frank reporting.

How long before we see a settled outcome on the Trump was a Russian agent! / Trump was unfairly delegitimised and persecuted by a partisan corporate media Routines?

Mueller report already dealt with that.
I can't even seen any highly partisan democrat media still on that track.

mueller may well have dealt with it... not sure about the rest...

there's a few nutters still desperately grasping at that narrative... geez we've even got some on here...

re. the covid wars...

it'll last forever

some attribute all successes to vaccines and lockdowns...

some totally defiantly dismiss the whole response...

truth is, its almost impossible to know how effective measures were

did vaccines really stop 1000s of deaths?

or are declining death rates due to things like;

the vulnerable falling in initial waves....

natural immunity building...

inproving treatment options....

waning virility of the strains...

etc.

personally, having closely watched the indonesian experience, like really really closely... and their haphazard responses...

where there were lockdowns, facemasks, social distancing, work from home etc. measures enacted...

but they were only oh so so loosely adhered to... in that super loose indo ways 'que sera sera' fashion we all love...

(well some of us...)

combined with their super low vax rates, of a largely shit vax (chinavax)

I have no doubt the vaccine efficacy and contribution has been totally overstated, both in terms of the initial marketing, and hindsight attribution....

no doubt whatsoever

that doesn't make me 'anti-vaxxer' triggered ones...

that means I think the vaccines served a purpose... but with my experiences outside of oz, I can see there is some serious over attributing going on, as people vehemently justify their positions

let the war rage on...

there may also be a touch of...

'it's much easier to fool someone than convince someone they have been fooled'

very likely a little more than a touch...

gragagan wrote:

I'm in no hurry to get a third. If the next mutation goes back towards delta then I probably will. If it's a more severe version of omichron then I'll wait for the new omichron vaccine (due march?) If it's a less severe version of omichron (which I've probably had already) then probably not.

Omicron does give reason to pause.

Supafreak wrote:

Omicron Is Spreading. Resistance Is Futile
The good news is that the variant’s mildness makes preventing infection much less of a priority. As the Omicron wave crests, there’s bad news and good news. The bad news is that the main strategies for slowing its spread—repeated testing, masks and vaccine boosters—are largely futile for that purpose. The good news is that while protecting the vulnerable remains vital, slowing the spread of the virus needn’t be the priority. The biggest danger from Omicron is probably acute hospital staffing shortages, in part because of asymptomatic employees who stay home from work after testing positive.

Although Covid testing can be useful, it also has important limitations. The “gold standard” PCR tests are frequently too sensitive; research has shown that in many cases people who test positive are no longer contagious. The increasingly used rapid antigen tests have the opposite problem, often failing to detect infections during the earlier part of the five-day isolation period of presumed contagiousness. This coronavirus, especially the Omicron variant, is so fast-moving that mass testing and contact tracing, and probably even isolation and quarantine, can’t slow it down significantly. The U.K. and other countries, unlike the U.S., already had widespread rapid-testing capacity during their recent surges, yet they experienced the same meteoric rise in cases. As with other interventions such as booster shots, testing is most useful for those at high risk of serious complications, who might benefit from early treatment.

As for masking, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently acknowledged that cloth masks do relatively little to prevent spread. Some experts on coronaviruses, including epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, for nearly two years have questioned the efficacy of masks. A recent rigorous review by his University of Minnesota research group concludes: “We are well past the emergency phase of this pandemic, and it should be well-known by now that wearing cloth face coverings or surgical masks, universal or otherwise, has a very minor role to play. . . . It is time to stop overselling their efficacy and unrealistic expectations about their ability to end the pandemic.” The first large randomized community-level study, published last month in Science, found that while generic surgical masks provided a modest (about 10%) reduction in the risk of infection from Delta, cloth masks didn’t significantly reduce risk. Masks may be even less protective against an extremely contagious variant like Omicron.

That has led to calls for mandatory N95-type masks, which are more effective but harder to use. Some schools have even mandated them for children. Yet two years is a long time for anyone’s face to be covered for many hours a day, and it’s an interminably long time for young children, possibly leading to lasting psycho-social and other harms. Like Delta and earlier variants, Omicron doesn’t seriously threaten the vast majority of children; preliminary evidence suggests much less risk for youth than from Delta. An increasing number of public-health experts, including infectious-disease specialist Monica Gandhi, have called for ending school mask mandates soon. And while vaccines and boosters continue to offer strong protection against serious illness and death—and are therefore vitally important to those at high risk—they’re less effective at preventing infection, especially with the Omicron variant. While a new CDC study finds that boosters substantially reduce risk of infection as well as hospitalization from Omicron, countries like the U.K. and Israel that had widespread booster coverage before Omicron struck have also seen unprecedented surges in cases.

In any case, even if you get a booster now, the current surge probably will have subsided by the time immunity kicks in. It’s possible that future variants will arise against which currently administered boosters would still be useful, although by then immunity may have waned significantly. The European Medicines Agency recently cautioned that repeated boosters may weaken the immune system over time. Which brings us to the good news: Because the new variant is relatively mild and so many people already have some immunity from vaccines, prior infection or both, Omicron’s explosive spread is much less threatening than previous waves. A recent Southern California study looked at more than 50,000 patients infected with the new variant. Not one required mechanical ventilation and only one died, compared with 14 deaths and 11 ventilations out of some 17,000 infected by the Delta variant during the same period. Consistent with evidence from other countries, hospitalizations were considerably lower and average hospital stays much shorter among Omicron than Delta patients.

Although reported numbers of “Covid hospitalizations” are up nationally, these figures include patients admitted for other reasons who incidentally test positive. Based on data from several states and the U.K., it appears that roughly half these admissions likely aren’t caused mainly by the virus. Health and Human Services Department data indicate the total number of patients in U.S hospitals has hardly budged over the past six months. Because the new variant primarily targets the upper airways instead of the lungs, doctors report that few patients are requiring ventilation or even supplemental oxygen. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates in the Lancet that the number of Omicron deaths “seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries.” In 2017-18, the flu caused some 52,000 deaths in the U.S., probably peaking at more than 1,500 a day.

Public-health authorities are beginning to come to terms with the passing of the Covid emergency. Six experts who advised the Biden transition, including Mr. Osterholm, earlier this month called for a pivot toward accepting Covid as an endemic disease, following the example of several European countries. As Anthony Fauci has acknowledged, “just about everybody” will eventually become infected. Some scientists have even suggested that Omicron may end up providing a kind of global “superimmunity” against serious illness from future variants. It’s past time to shift focus from trying to stamp out all new infections to protecting the most vulnerable from severe disease directly through vaccination and other evidence-based measures and alleviating hospital staffing shortages. Ending mask mandates, de-emphasizing isolation and encouraging vaccination ought to be a compromise most of us can live with.

Mr. Halperin is an adjunct professor at the Gillings School of Global Public Health at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill and author of “Facing Covid Without Panic.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-is-spreading-resistance-is-futile-m...

Good read