COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Roadkill wrote:I won’t disagree with anyone who says a healthy diet is beneficial to health. However, a healthy diet and exercise is not the golden ticket to a life of good health. Only the stupid believe it is.
Really???
Sure some things like cancer or some medical conditions are just luck of the drawn and genetics can play a part and many disease can effect all people no matter how healthy hence why vaccinations are important.
But come on a healthy diet and exercise (plus good sleep) are the number one keys to good health.
Just like the key to bad health is to eat a real bad diet don't exercise and smoke and drink in excess, very likely to result in health issues at some point.
Shit for brains eh?
I guess i should leave the real investigative stuff to SNs own self proclaimed journalist and nazi infiltrator!!!
Sorry i raised my hand and said good food and exercise were good for you. Big mistake and definitely worthy of one of your bone headed tirades.
@burliegh I just heard it from the horses mouth on TV so you should get you facts right before calling people liars pal. You honestly think you know more than all the worlds experts, I feel sorry for fucked up units like you. When shown the truth you can't handle it and turn into an abusive sooky la la. Hilarious.
hmm, some wondering and comments after billythekid's points:
billythekid wrote:Some basics Covidiots anti-vaxxers cant seem to understand:
I think you mean some oversimplifications and naivety.
billythekid wrote:1. Covid Omicron is different to Covid delta. Therefore the health advice has changed.
All the variants are still out there, in particular delta. They haven't just magically disappeared. In that sense the change in the health advice is completely arbitrary. It would be more sensible to say the change in the health advice is due to the nation being highly vaccinated.
billythekid wrote:2. The vaccine prevents hospitalization rates, not transmission.
I can find lots of online comment including "research" disputing this.
billythekid wrote:3. As the vaxxed pop nears 100%, basic maths tells us that the proportion of vaxxed to unvaxxed in hospital must increase
True.
billythekid wrote:4. Australia is one of the freest countries in the world. We are nowhere near the authoritarianism of truly authoritarian countries like Nth Korea, Syria, Chad, Congo etc. Calling us authoritarian and totalitarian is absurd.
True but I'm not sure of the point of mentioning this.
billythekid wrote:5. The govt is run by people and mistakes have been made in a situation (the pandemic) that was new. This doesnt mean the govt is evil/wants to control your life/ is completely incompetent etc.
True. But all governments and individual politicians are subject to the potential for corruption, cronyism, and being completely compromised. We see stuff like this playing out every day. Each individual politician pursues their own self interest. Naive to claim that it doesn't happen.
billythekid wrote:6. Vax side-effects typically happen soon after taking a vaccine or not at all. The history of vaccination tells us this.
This is possibly the most naive statement in here. We don't know anything about the long term health effects of mRNA vaccines.
billythekid wrote:7. People with higher research degrees immunology, virology etc. have a level of understanding of medical data that the layperson can't even imagine exists, because even though the average person can read, they don't know what they don't know (which causes them to misunderstand more than understand).
Not necessarily. There is a very large number of people out there with a much higher level understanding of biostatistics and data analysis and machine learning than people with higher research degrees in immunology and who can spot serious flaws in a lot of the "research" being published.
billythekid wrote:8. The govt is not making money by vaccinating everyone for free. There is no Aust govt/big Pharma conspiracy. Its costing our govt heaps to vaccinate everyone which in turn will lessen its capacity to provide the services that will win it votes.
True but the government has no power over the media. The media completely controls public opinion in Australia. In order to remain in power the government must buckle to public opinion. Corporations use the media in a very impressive and intelligent way to influence public opinion and hence government decisions. Correct that there is no govt/big pharma conspiracy. But the govt is largely just powerless in its ability to stop large corporations running rampant on us via full blown large scale media advertising and public relations campaigns.
billythekid wrote:9. From the beginning of the pandemic the Aust govt chose to prioritise lives over livelihoods. This is why our covid death rate as a percentage of total population is one of the lowest in the world.
True.
billythekid wrote:10. Many countries have had way harsher lockdown measures than Aust has. Many US schools and schools in Indonesia were closed for more than a year. Schools in Uganda for 2 years.
Australia is well up there, 2nd or 3rd from the top of the list. China is at the top of the list.
billythekid wrote:11. There are way worse issues of human rights abuse than vax mandates - ie. the recent independent UK tribunal Findings re China and Uighers which found China guilty of crimes against humanity including mass killing, crimes of forcible transfer, sex violence, deprivation of liberty, persecution due to beliefs; and crimes of genocide in the form of a policy to systematically prevent the birth of uighers. Not to mention the situation in Afganistan. The anti vax covidiot movt is a distraction from real issues.
Very true. Behind the smokescreen of covid there is a large number of very important things happening in the world that demand more attention.
old-dog wrote:@burliegh I just heard it from the horses mouth on TV so you should get you facts right before calling people liars pal. You honestly think you know more than all the worlds experts, I feel sorry for fucked up units like you. When shown the truth you can't handle it and turn into an abusive sooky la la. Hilarious.
Ahhh the TV. Was it koshie or stephanovic? Still dodging the SA numbers I see.
Please show me the truth and not just something you heard on tv you peanut
Jeez, being in good health can help overcome symptoms of the disease but can't do anything against gaining viral infections.
If you are a smoker with bad lungs obviously catching something that's damaging for lungs could be devastating. A healthy person would cope better but it's not a guarantee.
I just read about 'covid parties' on abc:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-12/getting-the-booster-can-end-pande...
Sounds like a perfect recipe for the antiwax crowd as they:
a) Don't believe that the virus exists and it's all a conspiracy
OR
b) Believe that the virus exists but can't do anything to them as their body is stronger than the virus
Getting infected would give them a basis for exemptions as these were willingly given to famous tennis players and supported by the courts. What could go wrong, the precedent is set!
So anti-vaxxers, just get infected and be done with it. Why argue your case in public when you can simply demonstrate your point through a live experiment?
VL you didn't say you were still a journalist!!
https://www.tiktok.com/@vickiawakening9.0/video/7051925776840527106
Going down internet rabbit holes and ranting and raving on swellnet all day, every day, is the mental health equivalent of eating garbage and not exercising. Sort your shit out you pack of barmpots.
BTW, well done for using "wanker" instead of "ghey" this morning blowin. Good to see you making attempts at personal growth.
Burliegh and his ilk are living proof that healthy eating doesn't improve brain function.
old-dog wrote:Burliegh and his ilk are living proof that healthy eating doesn't improve brain function.
Come back tomorrow for your next completely made up stat old-dog. Cant wait to hear it.
old-dog wrote:@burliegh I just heard it from the horses mouth on TV so you should get you facts right before calling people liars pal. You honestly think you know more than all the worlds experts, I feel sorry for fucked up units like you. When shown the truth you can't handle it and turn into an abusive sooky la la. Hilarious.
People like burleigh like to live "their truth". I've noticed this phrase (and my truth) being used more often, and when it comes to scientific and measurable outcomes, it simply means accepting bullshit and ignoring reality.
Cut me a piece 1875mm mate. Here you go boss. Mate WTF, this is 1215mm. No boss, my truth tells me it's 1875 just like you requested.
Vic Local wrote:old-dog wrote:@burliegh I just heard it from the horses mouth on TV so you should get you facts right before calling people liars pal. You honestly think you know more than all the worlds experts, I feel sorry for fucked up units like you. When shown the truth you can't handle it and turn into an abusive sooky la la. Hilarious.
People like burleigh like to live "their truth". I've noticed this phrase (and my truth) being used more often, and when it comes to scientific and measurable outcomes, it simply means accepting bullshit and ignoring reality.
Cut me a piece 1875mm mate. Here you go boss. Mate WTF, this is 1215mm. No boss, my truth tells me it's 1875 just like you requested.
Is that bit of wood for your Anti Slater sign we he rolls up to Bells beach this year? You are your army are going to boo him out of town right?
well burleigh, Slater is going to be about as popular as Novak mate if he gets into the country. Sure he'll have a few pathetic fans cheering him on, but the vast majority of Australians will think Kelly is being a fuckwit.
The reality is, given how pear-shaped the Novax fiasco has gone down for Scumo, I'm tipping Kelly won't be even getting on a plane, especially after he sees the epic boo-ing Novak gets in round 1 (if he makes it onto the court).
burleigh wrote:Vic Local wrote:old-dog wrote:@burliegh I just heard it from the horses mouth on TV so you should get you facts right before calling people liars pal. You honestly think you know more than all the worlds experts, I feel sorry for fucked up units like you. When shown the truth you can't handle it and turn into an abusive sooky la la. Hilarious.
People like burleigh like to live "their truth". I've noticed this phrase (and my truth) being used more often, and when it comes to scientific and measurable outcomes, it simply means accepting bullshit and ignoring reality.
Cut me a piece 1875mm mate. Here you go boss. Mate WTF, this is 1215mm. No boss, my truth tells me it's 1875 just like you requested.Is that bit of wood for your Anti Slater sign we he rolls up to Bells beach this year? You are your army are going to boo him out of town right?
Ha!!
Vic Local wrote:well burleigh, Slater is going to be about as popular as Novak mate if he gets into the country. Sure he'll have a few pathetic fans cheering him on, but the vast majority of Australians will think Kelly is being a fuckwit.
The reality is, given how pear-shaped the Novax fiasco has gone down for Scumo, I'm tipping Kelly won't be even getting on a plane, especially after he sees the epic boo-ing Novak gets in round 1 (if he makes it onto the court).
VicLocal and his three angry mates at the Australian Open boo-ing. I can see it now.
.There’s something… *special* about a government threatening to fine people for not reporting tests they can't access or afford in the first place.
— Dr Darren Saunders (@whereisdaz) January 11, 2022
It’s almost as if they don't want anyone to test themselves 🤔
Man swaggers about - drops all restrictions as Omicron descends on the population.
— Coalition Tea Lady (@ItsBouquet) January 11, 2022
Medical and supply chain systems buckle under the pressure.
Testing regimes overwhelmed.
Solution: - threaten to fine traumatised people.
What a monster! https://t.co/3CYHqLVv7N
Who said MSM don’t speak the truth? Go Ch7!
Lol pic.twitter.com/JqlKnap2p1
— Lucky Lance (@theluckylance) January 11, 2022
I’m tipping Smirko uses the false info, possibly filled in(but not supplied by) by Tennis Oz on Novax’s travel card to put him back on a plane.Rules are rules(except when they are not useful). Will Smirko be at the Oz Open giving out the trophies?
suchas wrote:Who said MSM don’t speak the truth? Go Ch7!
https://twitter.com/theluckylance/status/1480858892951191556?s=20
Haha was hoping someone would upload that. Just had it sent to me ..
Think going viral is the term....
Just a cold, has killed 21 in 24hr.
Fucking pussies...should have eaten more organic Quinoa. I blame them.
andy-mac wrote:suchas wrote:Who said MSM don’t speak the truth? Go Ch7!
https://twitter.com/theluckylance/status/1480858892951191556?s=20Haha was hoping someone would upload that. Just had it sent to me ..
Think going viral is the term....
That was pretty funny
"The Omicron variant is tearing through Australia's workforce, from health care and child care, to agriculture and manufacturing, to transportation and logistics, to emergency services.
The result is an unprecedented, and preventable, economic catastrophe.
This catastrophe was visited upon us by leaders — NSW Premier Dominic Perrotet and Prime Minister Scott Morrison in particular — on the grounds they were protecting the economy."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-12/covid-supply-chain-crisis-economy...
Roadkill wrote:Just a cold, has killed 21 in 24hr.
Fucking pussies...should have eaten more organic Quinoa. I blame them.
Soft cocks shouldn't have got old either.
I do enjoy watching this Novax / Scumo brawl. It's like the old school days when the two biggest arseholes start belting the shit out of each other and there's no teachers anywhere near the fight.
FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT...
Roadkill wrote:Just a cold, has killed 21 in 24hr.
Fucking pussies...should have eaten more organic Quinoa. I blame them.
It's great you're concerned about peoples health.
Check the link for heart disease deaths in Australia. Now this is the real pandemic. The pandemic of obese humans over running hospital systems.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/heart-stroke-vascular-diseases/hsvd-fact...
burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:Just a cold, has killed 21 in 24hr.
Fucking pussies...should have eaten more organic Quinoa. I blame them.
It's great you're concerned about peoples health.
Check the link for heart disease deaths in Australia. Now this is the real pandemic. The pandemic of obese humans over running hospital systems.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/heart-stroke-vascular-diseases/hsvd-fact...
so it's all the obese people we blame.
Roadkill wrote:burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:Just a cold, has killed 21 in 24hr.
Fucking pussies...should have eaten more organic Quinoa. I blame them.
It's great you're concerned about peoples health.
Check the link for heart disease deaths in Australia. Now this is the real pandemic. The pandemic of obese humans over running hospital systems.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/heart-stroke-vascular-diseases/hsvd-fact...
so it's all the obese people we blame.
Have i hit a nerve RK? We already know Vic isnt healthy, but what about you? Seeming as though you don't think eating healthy and exercise is the key to health i'm guessing you don't put too much effort into it?
andy-mac wrote:suchas wrote:Who said MSM don’t speak the truth? Go Ch7!
https://twitter.com/theluckylance/status/1480858892951191556?s=20Haha was hoping someone would upload that. Just had it sent to me ..
Think going viral is the term....
There will be 3 people looking for new jobs- the newsreaders and the person who shared the vid. She is new to Ch7 after apparently getting dumped by Ch9. And yes, it will go viral and intenational!
burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:Just a cold, has killed 21 in 24hr.
Fucking pussies...should have eaten more organic Quinoa. I blame them.
It's great you're concerned about peoples health.
Check the link for heart disease deaths in Australia. Now this is the real pandemic. The pandemic of obese humans over running hospital systems.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/heart-stroke-vascular-diseases/hsvd-fact...
so it's all the obese people we blame.
Have i hit a nerve RK? We already know Vic isnt healthy, but what about you? Seeming as though you don't think eating healthy and exercise is the key to health i'm guessing you don't put too much effort into it?
misquoting again, burleigh.
Roadkill wrote:burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:Just a cold, has killed 21 in 24hr.
Fucking pussies...should have eaten more organic Quinoa. I blame them.
It's great you're concerned about peoples health.
Check the link for heart disease deaths in Australia. Now this is the real pandemic. The pandemic of obese humans over running hospital systems.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/heart-stroke-vascular-diseases/hsvd-fact...
so it's all the obese people we blame.
Have i hit a nerve RK? We already know Vic isnt healthy, but what about you? Seeming as though you don't think eating healthy and exercise is the key to health i'm guessing you don't put too much effort into it?
misquoting again, burleigh.
you didn't answer my question. which is an answer in itself.
Other than get the jab, what have you done for your health recently RK?
This is useful to compare numbers in NSW, vax / non-vax in hospital, ICU etc
https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/698388/2022010...
So unvaccinated people are about 7 times more likely to be hospitalised, and about 20 times more likely to end up in ICU?
Jeezarz...
AndyM wrote:So unvaccinated people are about 7 times more likely to be hospitalised, and about 20 times more likely to end up in ICU?
Jeezarz...
No idea where you pulled this from? You talking nationally or a particular state at a particular time?
Fuck, it might be right if your over 60, but news flash we're all not as old as RK and Vic.
We all know Vic isn't healthy?
Are you talking about me burleigh? If you are, that's fucking hilarious.
without meaning to brag, I'm tipping I could out run, out ride, out paddle, and out swim you any day of the week.
Don't worry burleigh. I'm sure you could probably dead lift more than me. I get the distinct feeling you're one of those muscle bound gym heads who walks around like he's carrying two invisible suitcases, and likes looking at himself in the mirror.
This is from a different document, analysis around Delta, https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/in-focus/cov...
It does highlight the following:
“Interpretation: The vast majority of COVID-19 cases, and cases with more severe disease (classified as those hospitalised, admitted to ICU or who died) were not vaccinated. Only 5.7% of cases who were hospitalised and 5.8% of those who were admitted to ICU or who died had received 2 doses of vaccine. The proportion of cases and serious cases who were vaccinated increased with age, but this likely relates to vaccination coverage, which due to the nature of the rollout was substantially higher in older people.”
Going back to yesterdays exchange ref ‘status unknown - this is the process used for NSW at the time. (There’s no reported change to the methodology to date):
Vaccination status was initially determined based on what was reported in NCIMS (this information is collected at interview or on case review by the public health response teams). Vaccination data was then enhanced by matching to an extract of vaccination status from the Australian Immunisation Register (AIR). The AIR data was extracted on 7 October 2021 and included all people who were NSW residents and had any record of a COVID-19 vaccine. Individuals from the AIR extract were matched to NCIMS cases using an exact match on first name, last name and date of birth. If there were data on vaccination from both sources, AIR data was used as the source of information for analysis. Where data on vaccination existed in one system only, data from that system was used, if it was sufficiently complete. In the analyses, vaccination status was classified based on the following definitions:
• None: Reported as either: a) no vaccine record in NCIMS and unable to link to a record of any COVID-19 vaccination in AIR, or b) interval from receipt of first vaccine dose was too short to be effective (<21 days);
• One: One dose of vaccine at least 21 days prior to onset date;
• Two: Two doses of vaccine with the second dose at least 14 days prior to diagnosis and a minimum of 14 days
between the two doses;
• Unknown: Information on vaccination (or vaccination date) unknown in NCIMS and unable to link to an AIR record of COVID-19 vaccination.
So, I’d assume that where someone confirms that they’re vaccinated or not, this is recorded then cross-referenced. Where they don’t disclose, this is then subjected to the same process, but if there is no record identified this can’t be used as a ‘no vax’ in the figures. If they find a vaccination record then it will be included.
Looks like you’re off the mark, burleigh.
burleigh wrote:AndyM wrote:So unvaccinated people are about 7 times more likely to be hospitalised, and about 20 times more likely to end up in ICU?
Jeezarz...
No idea where you pulled this from? You talking nationally or a particular state at a particular time?
Fuck, it might be right if your over 60, but news flash we're all not as old as RK and Vic.
Haha check the shit I just posted burleigh… no, not from channel 7 (I don’t have a TV, btw)
Some interesting facts on excess deaths (over normal levels) in South Africa:
1. Looking further back - the bad news
- 286,000 excess death from May 2020 till Jan 2022. Covid does kill a lot of people - not just a sniffle
- official covid data understates covid impact by up to 70% ( USA life insurance data backs this up). So the assumption that we are always over counting by tallying "with covid" rather than "of covid" is not necessarily true.
2. Omicron impact - a preview of our future - the better news:
- recorded covid and excess deaths way below previous peaks - 5x less and 3 x less at peaks and a briefer period of impact (much fewer excess deaths).
https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa
Vic Local wrote:We all know Vic isn't healthy?
Are you talking about me burleigh? If you are, that's fucking hilarious.
without meaning to brag, I'm tipping I could out run, out ride, out paddle, and out swim you any day of the week.
Don't worry burleigh. I'm sure you could probably dead lift more than me. I get the distinct feeling you're one of those muscle bound gym heads who walks around like he's carrying two invisible suitcases, and likes looking at himself in the mirror.
I’m more endurance myself. Ran a few marathons in my time. Let’s have a Swellnet race.
Wouldn’t find me dead on a bike
etarip wrote:burleigh wrote:AndyM wrote:So unvaccinated people are about 7 times more likely to be hospitalised, and about 20 times more likely to end up in ICU?
Jeezarz...
No idea where you pulled this from? You talking nationally or a particular state at a particular time?
Fuck, it might be right if your over 60, but news flash we're all not as old as RK and Vic.
Haha check the shit I just posted burleigh… no, not from channel 7 (I don’t have a TV, btw)
It’s a weekly report from NSW. Not really giving the entire picture
frog wrote:Some interesting facts on excess deaths (over normal levels) in South Africa:
1. Looking further back - the bad news
- 286,000 excess death from May 2020 till Jan 2022. Covid does kill a lot of people - not just a sniffle
- official covid data understates covid impact by up to 70% ( USA life insurance data backs this up).2. Omicron impact - a preview of our future - the better news
- recorded covid and excess deaths way below previous peaks - 5x less and 3 x less at peaks and a briefer period of impact (much fewer excess deaths).https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa
Wonder if the numbers are affected by the more vulnerable being knocked over in earlier waves?
1.41 million cases in the last day in USA.
burleigh][quote=etarip wrote:burleigh wrote:AndyM wrote:So unvaccinated people are about 7 times more likely to be hospitalised, and about 20 times more likely to end up in ICU?
Jeezarz...
Haha check the shit I just posted burleigh… no, not from channel 7 (I don’t have a TV, btw)
It’s a weekly report from NSW. Not really giving the entire picture
Yeah, guilty as charged… such a niche, unrepresentative sample… geez. What information is missing?
I’ll have a look at the big picture documents you keep posting….
Wait….
What’s your reading on the vax / unvax / unknown methodology?
Should we be counting the unknowns in the Unvaxxed number? I think we should, but that would really fuck with your figures wouldn’t it?
etarip wrote:What’s your reading on the vax / unvax / unknown methodology?
Should we be counting the unknowns in the Unvaxxed number? I think we should, but that would really fuck with your figures wouldn’t it?
Could be anything. Data entry mistakes would be a big one IMO, Either way the system sounds flawed.
the plot thickens...
for the big I
(if that is even possible)
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1480790099994431489?ref...
Yeah Nah, read the methodologies. Designed to exclude data entry issues by cross referencing data entry points.
If there were data entry issues at the scale you’re proposing then that might have been reported. Would mean that people couldn’t download vaccine certificates etc etc. I haven’t seen any coverage of that kind of issue. Have you? If so, would be nice to see where that is.
They’re actually being kind to your mob by not including those numbers in ‘unvaxed’ automatically.
NoVax...what a gift. It's getting better every hour.
freeride76 wrote:1.41 million cases in the last day in USA.
Holy es h one T
That's going to put a shed load of people in hospital over there. (Especially unvaxxed mouth breathing Trump supporters who think they know better than "them damn elites dag nammit".
burleigh wrote:AndyM wrote:So unvaccinated people are about 7 times more likely to be hospitalised, and about 20 times more likely to end up in ICU?
Jeezarz...
No idea where you pulled this from? You talking nationally or a particular state at a particular time?
Fuck, it might be right if your over 60, but news flash we're all not as old as RK and Vic.
Under the rates per million, red versus green.
But yeah it’s only one week by the looks of it.
burleigh wrote:etarip wrote:burleigh wrote:AndyM wrote:So unvaccinated people are about 7 times more likely to be hospitalised, and about 20 times more likely to end up in ICU?
Jeezarz...
No idea where you pulled this from? You talking nationally or a particular state at a particular time?
Fuck, it might be right if your over 60, but news flash we're all not as old as RK and Vic.
Haha check the shit I just posted burleigh… no, not from channel 7 (I don’t have a TV, btw)
It’s a weekly report from NSW. Not really giving the entire picture
Only a weekly report but certainly gives you something to think about.
You can get each weekly report on the CIU website. Figures / ratios are pretty consistent.
https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/697270/2021121...
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia