COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

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Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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Snuffy Smith Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 8:07am

Hey Syp simular answer to when I asked you if you had read Mein Kampf awhile ago avoidence .You want to know what I think? well here it is a once in a hundred year occurrence has happened in my life time for good or bad. Overpopulation? Was it inevitable yes. Is it real yes. Should we listened and take note of the experts advice?yes.Should I pore over data and stats that I really have no idea how to read but think I do? No.Should I spend hours on a surfing web site arguing with non like minded people?No Do I get a laugh at some's train of thought?Yes. Will I go away for I while then pop up to sling some shit? Probably.

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Roadkill Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 8:50am

The US recorded just under 500,000 new covid cases…that’s an impressive number.

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Supafreak Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 9:00am

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Vic Local Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 9:06am

21,000 new cases in NSW. Tell me again why Perrottet hasn't resigned. And Scumo can go too. His failure to procure RATs and then lying about why they won't be free makes him unfit for high office. He bullshits as much as blowin.

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Roadkill Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 9:10am

Yeah, 21k is a lot. Hospitalisations remain steady. I do think those in charge have modelling for these numbers, as it is Omicron the concern is less than previous.

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Roadkill Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 9:12am

I don’t get the fascination the anti vaxers in here have with Fauci and the American political landscape.

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Roadkill Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 9:13am
Vic Local wrote:

21,000 new cases in NSW. Tell me again why Perrottet hasn't resigned. And Scumo can go too. His failure to procure RATs and then lying about why they won't be free makes him unfit for high office. He bullshits as much as blowin.

No one bullshits as much as Snowflake blowin.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 9:30am

VL its new years tonight but surely you can't be on the piss this early in the day???

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Supafreak Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 9:30am

Comments from front line doctors treating covid patients . Dr. Joseph Varon shares his experience and what he’s seeing at the moment with the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Some will know Varon as one of the founding members of the FLCCC. He gets plenty of media coverage and has done thousands of interviews . As long as the “ I “ word isn’t mentioned , or if it is a simple edit fixes that . https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/front-line-physicians-describe-vacc...

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gsco Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 9:33am

Is there a chance that the reality now with covid, particularly omicron, is this is what has happened with coronaviruses every year for hundreds or thousands of years, and it’s time for humanity to let go, drop the issue and move on?

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saltyone Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:07am

Coronaviruses always mutate that is what corona viruses do. Vaccine attempts in past history for coronaviruses failed and certainly have failed again. Although they have currently made some people extremely rich at the expense of others. It would’ve been far more effective with less strain put on hospitals and the medical system if people who were very sick with it to be treated at home with non vaccine medicine.
Hindsight ..

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blindboy Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:15am

".....certainly have failed again"

So saltyone, are you really so stupid or ideologically bound up in hate that you are unable to see the huge differences in infection rates, serious illness and mortality that vaccines have produced? Apparently so. Just another fully signed up member of the idiot collective!

And this has be a last minute winning entry for fuckwit of the year.

".....if people who were very sick with it to be treated at home..."

Becase we all have ventilators, blood oxygen monitors and life support sustems in the back of the garage somewhere. Fuck me there are some morons around!

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saltyone Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:26am

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00533741

Dated from 2007. Pretty interesting really. Updated in 2012.
“While it is unlikely to again become epidemic, the virus is thought to be a risk for spread to humans if it was released intentionally by a terrorist group. For that reason, the U.S. government is developing vaccines and drugs for use if spread should occur again. “

Note the exclusion list to the trial.

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Roadkill Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:19am
saltyone wrote:

Coronaviruses always mutate that is what corona viruses do. Vaccine attempts in past history for coronaviruses failed and certainly have failed again. Although they have currently made some people extremely rich at the expense of others. It would’ve been far more effective with less strain put on hospitals and the medical system if people who were very sick with it to be treated at home with non vaccine medicine.
Hindsight ..

How do you treat someone at home, with non vaccine medicine? What would you suggest to use for treatment?

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Blowin Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:33am

Unsurprising that no one wanted to go near the observations regarding covid outcomes comparing quadruple vaccinated Israel vs it’s unvaccinated neighbours.

That’s your “ Don’t look up “ movement doing their darndest to ignore contrary evidence.

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saltyone Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:34am

Family member or friend .
There’s many . Discuss with appropriate doctor .

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blindboy Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:36am

saltyone you have not the vaguest notion what you are talking about. You know nothing but are keen to share your profound ignorance about a critical health issue by offering potentially fatal advice on a public forum. The only thing lower than your knowledge of this issue is your understanding of ethical behaviour. Just another fucking day of Swellchan promoting bullshit!

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Roadkill Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:38am
saltyone wrote:

Family member or friend .
There’s many . Discuss with appropriate doctor .

You made the post, as there is no Dr here, how about you post how to treat a covid patient at home with non vaccine medications?

I’m really interested to know.

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saltyone Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:43am

Treatment early for those at possible risk of more illness to prevent serious illness.

Those already sick or immunocompromised may benefit from early intervention.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:55am
saltyone wrote:

Treatment early for those at possible risk of more illness to prevent serious illness.

Those already sick or immunocompromised may benefit from early intervention.

Worked for Trump (fat old and unfit) and Joe Rogan, surely would be worth a go, few other drugs now too, key is having medication very early when infected not latter, even ivermectin might have some benefits if taken very early.

Prevention is better than cure though, get fully vaxed first and ensure you have good levels of vitamin D and regular dose of Zinc.

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aaron61 Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:58am
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Supafreak Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 10:59am

3-AFDEDC2-73-AA-4837-8389-E8-F0-CC2291-FF

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dawnperiscope Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 11:19am

Does anyone know if a 12-16 year old child can fly domestically without the vax? Airline policy falls back on local mandates, so I think they can, but would be good to hear of others experience.

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Roadkill Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 11:36am
saltyone wrote:

Treatment early for those at possible risk of more illness to prevent serious illness.

Those already sick or immunocompromised may benefit from early intervention.

What treatment?

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gsco Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 11:38am

The crisis humanity, especially the media, seem to be currently facing is its ability to implement "The Great Covid Unhook".

Much of society seems to have its current identity and livelihood and self conceptualisation, commercial strategy and profitability, political existence and battle lines, focus and attention for the past 2 years, and indeed celebrity and fame, completely invested in and identified with covid. A significant chink of our whole social structure and fabric and institutions have gravitated their daily existence and functions towards covid.

Society's ego is completely invested in covid. Going to be painful to let that one go.

Humanity seems to be facing the real crisis of its existence being left rather empty and with little to nothing to move on to next if it actually considers the idea of detaching and defusing from covid. In particular the media, big tech and medical industry are completely invested in and identified with it and have reaped huge profits from it - they sure don't want to let it go.

This seems like it's going to be hard and painful, but what humanity needs in not The Great Reset as advocated by the World Economic Forum but instead to take a big step back to see the bigger picture here and undertake The Great Covid Disconnect and Ego Untangling.

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truebluebasher Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 11:46am

Biggie Rat = Daggy Dad redifines (Reads: hoses down) his WR pet rat plague.

Irrational = AMA tough talk : "Scomo's RAT ban will lead to immeasurable infections!"...Clever Plan!
Ration = Chem slang for [ SOLD OUT of RATZ ] see: { Toilet Paper Panic Buy Sale }
Rating = Old school insult for comparing drizzling snot to dribbling spit.
Ratify = 2nd [+] Test Result > '3rd time lucky!'
Rat tail : [ 3rd & Final Test Fail ] > (No one's looking!) Just go to the back of the queue & try again!
Ratting = RAT Dobber Hotline for Dan's VIPs
Ratfink = QR Bouncer (Boo!) or ( ACA Slang) Someone who pees over yer RAT for a False [+] result.
Rat Running = Dodging the [ RRT ] > 6 months Jail + $2m Fine + Day care & Pet Shop bans.
Rat's Nest = Police State RAT Raid > Backpacker's Party fails to get off the ground! No one is offended!
Rat Trap = [+] [-] or [-] [+] or [+] [?] or [?] [-] or [#] [@]...err...Computer Expert says : "You're Fucked!'
Rat Sack = Mum stands on stool to shoo out the plague of mouldy RATs from her Son's School Bag.
Ratbag = Toilet Roll hoarder that fills a 2nd trolley with RATs or ( Someone that Shoplifts RATs )
Rattle = Super Rapid snotty nosed pre school test centre > 54321 outta here!
Death Rattle = Tik Tok 5 sec Dance Marathon Craze as Chix shake the RAT Vial for [+] [-] Reveal.
Rattan = (Aussie Slang) RAT test for Bali Beach Holiday Hut
Rat Arsed = Too wasted to Test or (ACA raises alarm! Kidz getting high from sniffing RAT entrails!)
RAT A TAT TAT = VIP Bullies Hesitant Appeal "Tap'n'Knock'n'Ring'n'Bash you up until you do!"

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tylerdurden Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 11:47am

Budesonide, Remdesivir, monoclonal antibodies and steroids are currently recommended.
Ask your doctor, they might recommend other repurposed medications off-label. Quite a range of opinions, they may recommend nothing.
Vit C, D and Zinc might help.
Nasal rinse with dilute providone-iodine has some evidence that it lowers nasal viral load
Summary of the studies here: https://c19pvpi.com/meta.html

Bottom line, ask your doctor and take his/her recommendations. Every medication has side effects, contra-indications and drug interactions. Make sure that whatever you take it’s right for you

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Blowin Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 11:56am
aaron61 wrote:

Just listen to the experts.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/yes-the-vaccines-were-supposed-to

That was really good.

Don’t look up!!!!

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Supafreak Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 12:24pm
Blowin wrote:
aaron61 wrote:

Just listen to the experts.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/yes-the-vaccines-were-supposed-to

That was really good.

Don’t look up!!!!

With that variety of statements from various experts, is it any wonder people question what’s going on ?

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blindboy Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 12:31pm

For those unable to keep up, home treatment by hospital staff has been made available in NSW when hospitals approached capacity.

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Blowin Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 12:37pm
Supafreak wrote:
Blowin wrote:
aaron61 wrote:

Just listen to the experts.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/yes-the-vaccines-were-supposed-to

That was really good.

Don’t look up!!!!

With that variety of statements from various experts, is it any wonder people question what’s going on ?

And then you’ve got people like those on here who are guilty of definitive gaslighting when they tell you that such lies never occurred. Or they use the historic lies as supportive assertions to bolster the newer lies.

Don’t look up bloke!

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blindboy Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 12:45pm

Of course if you actually watch the videos, note the careful editing to remove qualifying clauses and understand that "efficacy" is not the same as "efficiency" and infection does not mean disease then there is nothing of much concern there at all. Did they deliberately overstate the ability of the vaccines to prevent transmission? Probably not. They simply stated what they genuinely believed at the time. I know that many amongst you are inherently suspicious of highly educated specialists talking in complex precise language but it is sad that so many of you consider virtually all public health officials to be corrupt on evidence that is nothing more than hearsay, bullshit and your own unsubstantiated suspicions reflected back at you by those who know as little as, or less than, you.

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Blowin Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 12:55pm

Totally agree bloke.

The quotes were taken out of context and were ambiguous.

Lol

This MSM report was made four months and millions of injections after the first vaccinations. So you reckon they still “didn’t know the outcomes “

Why are you defending lies ? You are still telling people to not look up bloke!

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Supafreak Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 12:54pm

Pretty obvious that there has been misinformation on both sides if you watch the video I put up from the rising crew on the hill they talk about icelands government approach compared to the states . The biggest problem has been the delivery from public health officials , some can see it , some are blind.

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blindboy Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 12:59pm

Rachel Maddow is a television host! So do television hosts lie, why yes! How shocking that you never realised that until just now. Get with it mate. Perhaps more importantly is that in my experience of dealing with people who tend to attribute the worst possible motives to the behaviour of others, it is almost without fail an indication of how they behave themselves. As they act out of selfish corrupt motives it is only natural that they expect thst others would also do so.

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Blowin Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 1:20pm
blindboy wrote:

Rachel Maddow is a television host! So do television hosts lie, why yes! How shocking that you never realised that until just now. Get with it mate. Perhaps more importantly is that in my experience of dealing with people who tend to attribute the worst possible motives to the behaviour of others, it is almost without fail an indication of how they behave themselves. As they act out of selfish corrupt motives it is only natural that they expect thst others would also do so.

Then perhaps it’s time for you to question why you’re constantly claiming that my motives are malevolent bloke.

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JQ Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 1:26pm

Not much point questioning Blowin's motives. He seeks the dopamine release of feeling outrage and grievance. Just like someone virtue signalling on twitter.

Take an issue, any issue, consider the many ways in which it can be interpreted - select that one that allows for the most grievance to be felt against the desired targets and you'll very quickly get there. After you've done this, then start looking for 'evidence' (aka 'resurch').

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Vic Local Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 1:29pm
JQ wrote:

Not much point questioning Blowin's motives. He seeks the dopamine release of feeling outrage and grievance. Just like someone virtue signalling on twitter.

Take an issue, any issue, consider the many ways in which it can be interpreted - select that one that allows for the most grievance to be felt against the desired targets and you'll very quickly get there. After you've done this, then start looking for 'evidence' (aka 'resurch').

Nailed it JQ. The only thing left after publishing the "evidence" from the "resurch" is blowing your top when others call out the bullshit.

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Roadkill Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 1:33pm
Vic Local wrote:
JQ wrote:

Not much point questioning Blowin's motives. He seeks the dopamine release of feeling outrage and grievance. Just like someone virtue signalling on twitter.

Take an issue, any issue, consider the many ways in which it can be interpreted - select that one that allows for the most grievance to be felt against the desired targets and you'll very quickly get there. After you've done this, then start looking for 'evidence' (aka 'resurch').

Nailed it JQ. The only thing left after publishing the "evidence" from the "resurch" is blowing your top when others call out the bullshit.

And when all else fails…swear use CAPITALS and start the personal abuse of anyone that does accept the lies and bs spread.

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Vic Local Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 1:43pm
Roadkill wrote:
Vic Local wrote:
JQ wrote:

Not much point questioning Blowin's motives. He seeks the dopamine release of feeling outrage and grievance. Just like someone virtue signalling on twitter.

Take an issue, any issue, consider the many ways in which it can be interpreted - select that one that allows for the most grievance to be felt against the desired targets and you'll very quickly get there. After you've done this, then start looking for 'evidence' (aka 'resurch').

Nailed it JQ. The only thing left after publishing the "evidence" from the "resurch" is blowing your top when others call out the bullshit.

And when all else fails…swear use CAPITALS and start the personal abuse of anyone that does accept the lies and bs spread.

Followed up by the "poor me, I'm the victim here" routine.

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Blowin Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 2:05pm

Whoa ….nice sequence of mutually reassuring bullshit their blokes.

At first you were just a posey of mean girl bullies.

Then it turned into the full circle jerk.

Finally I think you’ve reached the apex of your little collective….

Congratulations are in order….you’ve become all you could be!

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Supafreak Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 2:10pm

May 16, 2021 - 11:43 AM EDT
Fauci: Vaccinated people become 'dead ends' for the coronavirus. https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/553773-fauci-vaccinated-p...

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Blowin Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 2:15pm
Supafreak wrote:

May 16, 2021 - 11:43 AM EDT
Fauci: Vaccinated people become 'dead ends' for the coronavirus. https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/553773-fauci-vaccinated-p...

Lies from the number one health official’s mouth half a year after the vaccines were released.

Lies upon lies upon lies.

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blindboy Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 2:23pm

Did you actually read it? "Unlikely but not impossible" is what he said, which before the delta variant took hold was true. Once delta appeared the message changed.

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Roadkill Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 3:22pm

Anti vaxers are pretty funny. My daughter is working click and collect today. Mr anti vaxers says, “are you vaccinated, tell us you’re not vaccinated, you can’t serve us if you’re vaccinated”. My daughter says “fine, I’ll just take your order back inside”. Mr anti vaxxers says “no no, we will take it, but don’t come near us”.
Morons everywhere.

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gsco Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 3:58pm

Honestly I'm really struggling to get past the idea that all throughout history, even multiple times within our own lifetimes, humanity has experienced many coronavirus outbreaks which would have been deemed as equally if not more contagious and virulent as any covid variant if they received the same attention and scrutiny as covid, but which went completely unnoticed and consequently received no attention, scrutiny or response from humanity at all.

It would seem very naive to think otherwise?

I'm just really struggling to get past the idea that everything that has happened in terms of the level of attention and scrutiny and response to covid has been completely arbitrary, and just politically, ideologically and commercially motivated, and/or just based on fear.

I just can't seem to find any argument to convince me otherwise.

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freeride76 Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 4:05pm

"Honestly I'm really struggling to get past the idea that all throughout history, even multiple times within our own lifetimes, humanity has experienced many coronavirus outbreaks which would have been deemed as equally if not more contagious and virulent as any covid variant"

In our own lifetimes?

I got SARS and MERS, which received massive media coverage but which died out before becoming pandemics.

What else?

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gsco Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 4:13pm

You overlooked the part where I wrote:

"if they received the same attention and scrutiny as covid, but which went completely unnoticed and consequently received no attention, scrutiny or response from humanity at all."

The point is, how many coronavirus outbreaks has humanity experienced throughout history, equally contagious and virulent as covid, that just went by unnoticed and received no attention or response at all?

It would seem naive to think the answer is none...

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blindboy Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 4:22pm

So 5.5 million dead from covid and many more deaths prevented by vaccination and other methods but we apparently missed other diseases of similar virulence and infectivity? Nothing in the last hundred years for sure but perhaps one in the 19th Century for which I am sure they would have welcomed a vaccine.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/a-brief-history-of-...

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Roadkill Friday, 31 Dec 2021 at 4:32pm
gsco wrote:

You overlooked the part where I wrote:

"if they received the same attention and scrutiny as covid, but which went completely unnoticed and consequently received no attention, scrutiny or response from humanity at all."

The point is, how many coronavirus outbreaks has humanity experienced throughout history, equally contagious and virulent as covid, that just went by unnoticed and received no attention or response at all?

It would seem naive to think the answer is none...

Past outbreaks are relevant only to a certain extent. Even how contagious past viruses are is not comparable. We live a different way now….there is air travel, more people live in cities, we live closer together in cities, we go out and mingle with groups more etc etc. Any virus spreads faster and more efficiently than ever before.