COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 1:48pm

No mate, what Craig said was true. You just lie constantly in full awareness of what you are doing. I mean quite seriously are they paying you? If not you are being taken for a ride. They are making money out of your shit. But back to the issue
Vaccines on average are still 30-40% effective against omicron infection and around 70% effective against serious illness and so are massively reducing both in the community ....... despite low life toxic fuckwits like you doing their best to undermine that message.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 1:52pm
Blowin wrote:

Comparing cancer to covid.

Lol

You are so stupid it's frightening blowin. You do realise chemo compromises patient's immune system. Anyone getting chemo and catching covid is in real trouble. Your problem is, you're too stupid to join the dots.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 1:52pm
Blowin wrote:

Comparing cancer to covid.

Lol

You are so stupid it's frightening blowin. You do realise chemo compromises patient's immune system. Anyone getting chemo and catching covid is in real trouble. Your problem is, you're too stupid to join the dots.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 1:59pm
blindboy wrote:

No mate, what Craig said was true. You just lie constantly in full awareness of what you are doing. I mean quite seriously are they paying you? If not you are being taken for a ride. They are making money out of your shit. But back to the issue
Vaccines on average are still 30-40% effective against omicron infection and around 70% effective against serious illness and so are massively reducing both in the community ....... despite low life toxic fuckwits like you doing their best to undermine that message.

Sure bloke. Point out a single lie I’ve said.

BTW…you just repeated the same relative risk reduction bullshit as I’ve described severs times now.

Is Pfizer paying you bloke?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 2:03pm
Vic Local wrote:
Blowin wrote:

Comparing cancer to covid.

Lol

You are so stupid it's frightening blowin. You do realise chemo compromises patient's immune system. Anyone getting chemo and catching covid is in real trouble. Your problem is, you're too stupid to join the dots.

Huh? I’ve never disputed that covid is potentially dangerous for the elderly and those with ill health. Why are you pretending you’ve never heard this?

Influenza is particularly dangerous if you’re on chemo. You think we should shutter the planet because of influenza?

Look, I don’t care if you want to believe covid is more dangerous than a trillion nuclear weapons exploding in your back yard , just keep your irrational chickenshit fear mongering to yourself. You are inciting unnecessary fear in the community.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 2:13pm
Craig wrote:
burleigh wrote:
Vic Local wrote:

When normal people saw that new cases hit 5700 in NSW, they say "I'm happy to wear a mask indoors to protect my health, the health of people around me, and the economy in general. blowin on the other hand yells face nappy, softcocks, and tells everyone on swell net that they are scared. Yes blowin, you are a fuckwit.

I look at 5700 and feel sorry for everyone that was coerced into the jab to keep their jobs, to protect others etc.
It’s sad that our governments have lied tothe people

Lied... it's keeping people out of hospital as the virus starts to take off. FFS.

Yeah Craig, lied. They have lied all throughout this pandemic.

All premiers have said several times that the vaccine significantly stops transmission and even gone as far as saying that the virus hunts down the unvaccinated. This is a lie.

Now to be claiming the success of less hospitalisation due to vaccine (I’m sure some of it is true) but they should be thanking omicron as it’s less dangerous.

Yet they use omicron to put more fear into people for booster shots.

If you don’t stand up this shit will NEVER end.

As the PM is now saying, your health is your responsibility.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 2:16pm
Vic Local wrote:
Blowin wrote:

Comparing cancer to covid.

Lol

You are so stupid it's frightening blowin. You do realise chemo compromises patient's immune system. Anyone getting chemo and catching covid is in real trouble. Your problem is, you're too stupid to join the dots.

Yeah this is true, however me being vaccinated isn’t going to help them. It’s a false narrative to get jabs in arms.
Look at the spread in NSW that vaccine hasn’t stopped them catching it.

The best thing for these people is look after their own health and take proper precautions, the same way they would for the flu or any other virus

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 2:37pm

Vaccines on average are still 30-40% effective against omicron infection and around 70% effective against serious illness and so are massively reducing both in the community

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 2:41pm

burleigh
You getting vaccinated would a). Reduce your chances of getting covid. b reduce your chances of spreading covid. c. reduce your chances of requiring hospital treatment and d. reduce you chances of spreading it in hospitals.
the vaccine doesn't eliminate the risk, it just improves the odds. You're like blowin. Stupid and selfish.

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Supafreak Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 2:46pm

Australians should not fear the explosion in COVID-19 case numbers, says the federal Health Minister Greg Hunt, as the number of people admitted to hospital with serious illness has not yet grown. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-23/greg-hunt-reassures-omicron-icu-v...

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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 3:04pm
Vic Local wrote:

burleigh
You getting vaccinated would a). Reduce your chances of getting covid. b reduce your chances of spreading covid. c. reduce your chances of requiring hospital treatment and d. reduce you chances of spreading it in hospitals.
the vaccine doesn't eliminate the risk, it just improves the odds. You're like blowin. Stupid and selfish.

A: I'm not worried about catching covid. I take steps everyday to ensure im a healthy person including healthy eating, not drinking, Vitamin and daily physical exercise (something governments refuse to promote)
B:This is simply not true - just look at NSW
C: See A
D: See A & B

Vaccines do not stop transmission dopey. So the best way to protect yourself is to take the best steps for YOU.

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 3:06pm

Easy for him to say. The reality is that the whole health system is stressed by the increase in cases. More work at every level for people who have been doing it tough for a long time......but the usual loudmouths never think about that or just dismiss it with a pile of insults attached.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/paramedics-taking-up-to-an-hour-to-r...

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 3:06pm
blindboy wrote:

Vaccines on average are still 30-40% effective against omicron infection and around 70% effective against serious illness and so are massively reducing both in the community

Pulling stats out your ass again Blindboy. Prove it. Especially the omicron. Or did one of the lying premiers or health officers say this at one of the million press conferences where they constantly lie.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 3:06pm
blindboy wrote:

Easy for him to say. The reality is that the whole health system is stressed by the increase in cases. More work at every level for people who have been doing it tough for a long time......but the usual loudmouths never think about that or just dismiss it with a pile of insults attached.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/paramedics-taking-up-to-an-hour-to-r...

I would say its also stressed by adverse reactions, but hey thats not something Gov or MSM want to promote

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 3:11pm

Masks and venue sign ins are back in for NSW. get ready for a force 9 tantrum from blowin and Burleigh.

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 3:15pm

"The preliminary data about Omicron and vaccines is coming in quickly and is revealing lower vaccine effectiveness. Best estimates suggest vaccines are around 30-40 per cent effective at preventing infections and 70 per cent effective at preventing severe disease."
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/how-effective-are-vaccines-against-omicron-a...

"I would say its also stressed by adverse reactions,"

So you have evidence of 5000 serious adverse reactions today? Or are you just making stuff up....as usual.

I focus's picture
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I focus Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 3:20pm
blindboy wrote:

Easy for him to say. The reality is that the whole health system is stressed by the increase in cases. More work at every level for people who have been doing it tough for a long time
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/paramedics-taking-up-to-an-hour-to-r...

Yep states have been the ones doing the heavy lifting while the Federal Government have be doing the lazy leaning.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 3:34pm

The Australian Protocol https://m.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 3:31pm
blindboy wrote:

"The preliminary data about Omicron and vaccines is coming in quickly and is revealing lower vaccine effectiveness. Best estimates suggest vaccines are around 30-40 per cent effective at preventing infections and 70 per cent effective at preventing severe disease."
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/how-effective-are-vaccines-against-omicron-a...

"I would say its also stressed by adverse reactions,"

So you have evidence of 5000 serious adverse reactions today? Or are you just making stuff up....as usual.

TGA release data 2 weeks late, but here’s SOME of the REPORTED adverse reactions from 9th December
https://www.instagram.com/vacciconned/p/CXzRNhyhNDt/?utm_medium=copy_link

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 3:42pm
Vic Local wrote:

Masks and venue sign ins are back in for NSW. get ready for a force 9 tantrum from blowin and Burleigh.

Are you sure about that ? From what Ive read QR code yes but not masks , which doesn’t make much sense really. Edit just found the latest update, things are changing by the minute https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-qr-codes-back-in-nsw...

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Supafreak Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 4:07pm

So I thought they were doing away with QR codes as with so many casual contacts the system would be overloaded and if casual contacts then have to get tested which is also getting overloaded. Soon everyone will be restricted to their homes ( if they have one ) and they won’t need to inforce a lockdown. Merry Xmas and have a happy new year.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 4:21pm

This is Gold , when you’re out at restaurants or pubs and clubs over the holidays …… don’t mingle. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-23/nsw-to-enforce-mandatory-mask-wea...

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 4:30pm
Supafreak wrote:

So I thought they were doing away with QR codes as with so many casual contacts the system would be overloaded and if casual contacts then have to get tested which is also getting overloaded. Soon everyone will be restricted to their homes ( if they have one ) and they won’t need to inforce a lockdown. Merry Xmas and have a happy new year.

Exactly. It’s set up to fail

That includes all the industries. Just one example is a police station. Are we going to shut them down one by one as the virus goes through?

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 4:50pm
shoredump wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

So I thought they were doing away with QR codes as with so many casual contacts the system would be overloaded and if casual contacts then have to get tested which is also getting overloaded. Soon everyone will be restricted to their homes ( if they have one ) and they won’t need to inforce a lockdown. Merry Xmas and have a happy new year.

Exactly. It’s set up to fail

That includes all the industries. Just one example is a police station. Are we going to shut them down one by one as the virus goes through?

Totall madness. I know of 3 very small businesses that were shut for two weeks because an infected person visited their premises. Owned and operated businesses will not survive, there is nothing stopping these businesses being shut down again if and when another infected person visits them.

Another lie from the premier about getting your jab for freedom.

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tubeshooter Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 5:34pm

Yeah QR codes back in NSW as of Dec 27 , masks tomorrow...
I can't see how QR codes are going to be effective though at the moment while people are travelling rapidly and mingling heavily. I foresee a dog chasing it's tail. Seems more of a tool for when travel restrictions were in place and people were limited to their LGAs.
Contact tracing over the holidays with bugger all restrictions will be a nightmare. By the time an infected person (or group of infected persons) is identified and casual contacts contacted the horse will have surely bolted.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 5:59pm
shoredump wrote:

Exactly. It’s set up to fail

That includes all the industries. Just one example is a police station. Are we going to shut them down one by one as the virus goes through?

Oh what a mess. Could be a golden time for kleptomaniacs who like to er, liberate street signs, witches hats and flashing lights by the roadside.

I'm debating myself whether any rules apply any more, or if everything is just being made up on the run. Have had some fun drives between towns recently.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 6:13pm

Case in WA. Wondering how 25yo French backpacker gets in yet we can't go see our fam? I think pub/club in Northbridge exposure site? Early news, might be wrong on that

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 6:29pm

"Totall madness. I know of 3 very small businesses that were shut for two weeks because an infected person visited their premises. Owned and operated businesses will not survive, there is nothing stopping these businesses being shut down again if and when another infected person visits them.

Another lie from the premier about getting your jab for freedom."

Another brain fart from Burleigh. what do you think happens to hospitality business when new infections go through the roof burleigh? I know this might shock you, but sane people aren't keen to go to pubs filled with people when that happens.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 6:29pm

Surely time is limited on border closures. All the resources being used to keep a virus out of QLD that’s already here.
All the resources being used for pcr testing to cross.
Makes zero sense and needs to be stopped.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 6:31pm
Vic Local wrote:

"Totall madness. I know of 3 very small businesses that were shut for two weeks because an infected person visited their premises. Owned and operated businesses will not survive, there is nothing stopping these businesses being shut down again if and when another infected person visits them.

Another lie from the premier about getting your jab for freedom."

Another brain fart from Burleigh. what do you think happens to hospitality business when new infections go through the roof burleigh? I know this might shock you, but sane people aren't keen to go to pubs filled with people when that happens.

I have no idea what point you’re trying to make here

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 6:47pm

https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-testing-crisis-a-result-of-fail...

And the only comment they decided to publish. As satire it’s excellent , if it’s the SMH trying to control the narrative it’s fucken hideous. This is what happens when you allow the Blindboys of the world room to spread their irrational fear throughout the community.

“Bearing in mind that we had zero cases in July, why has the government allowed the case numbers to be now in the many thousands? It is easy to cut back the numbers and the predictable deaths to zero once again, but we need a strong government which has the courage to stand up to the anti vaxxers and the various other lobby groups. Pubs, clubs, churches and all indoor entertainment venues should be immediately closed. Restaurants and shops should only be accessible to those who can prove they are fully vaccinated, including their booster shots. Gloves should be worn and there should be a public campaign to stop kissing as a form of greeting, high fiving, hugging and hand shaking. Elbow bumping means you are too close to someone as the virus can travel up to 8 metres and can stay in the air for a few hours. If Perrottet doesn’t have the stamina to control this pandemic, he should hand over the reins to someone who can.“

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 6:49pm
Blowin wrote:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-testing-crisis-a-result-of-fail...

And the only comment they decided to publish. As satire it’s excellent , if it’s the SMH trying to control the narrative it’s fucken hideous. This is what happens when you allow the Blindboys of the world room to spread their irrational fear throughout the community.

“Bearing in mind that we had zero cases in July, why has the government allowed the case numbers to be now in the many thousands? It is easy to cut back the numbers and the predictable deaths to zero once again, but we need a strong government which has the courage to stand up to the anti vaxxers and the various other lobby groups. Pubs, clubs, churches and all indoor entertainment venues should be immediately closed. Restaurants and shops should only be accessible to those who can prove they are fully vaccinated, including their booster shots. Gloves should be worn and there should be a public campaign to stop kissing as a form of greeting, high fiving, hugging and hand shaking. Elbow bumping means you are too close to someone as the virus can travel up to 8 metres and can stay in the air for a few hours. If Perrottet doesn’t have the stamina to control this pandemic, he should hand over the reins to someone who can.“

I’m pretty sure vicmoron will read this and cum in his pants

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shortenism Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 6:52pm

Yep and from 11:59 tonight jabbed Vico’s must wear a face nappy to meet with other jabbed vico’s in settings where unjabbed vicos aren’t aloud to stop the spread of a strain which is less potent than the last two... Merry Xmas.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 6:58pm

Amazing what a two week fear campaign can achieve.

Even without concurrent medical evidence.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 7:02pm

VIC local rubbing his hands together knowing the free taxpayer handouts are coming his way.

This is how you make the conscious decision to run an economy into the ground. Pump more free cash, debase the currency and watch the inflation rate eat away the accumulated debt so that it can be replaced with …..MOAR debt.

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 7:17pm

A timely article.

"Are some of us destined to be dumb and is there anything we can do about it?"

"Yet, people keep doing stupid things — from rejecting the science of climate change to embracing the idea that vaccinations are part of a giant global conspiracy to take control of our minds using micro-implants and 5G."

"So, to help you play your part in the struggle against stupidity, here are some helpful tips."

Be alert for the difference between lies and 'bullshit'

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-23/is-dumbness-our-destiny/100679506

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 7:17pm

Vaccines on average are still 30-40% effective against omicron infection and around 70% effective against serious illness and so are massively reducing both in the community. This reduces the strain on health services. With long ambulance delays already happening anyone in urgent need is now at risk. Hospital staffing levels are also under pressure as the infected and their contacts (1500 currently) have to isolate. Yet the usual fuckwits have nothing better to do than post their usual hysterical nonsense. Save us from fools fucksticks and frauds!

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 7:20pm

Is this why all other treatments have been demonised???

"FDA approves Pfizer's antiviral COVID-19 pill. Here's what we know"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-23/apn-pfizer-fda-covid-drug/100721300

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 7:32pm
blindboy wrote:

Vaccines on average are still 30-40% effective against omicron infection and around 70% effective against serious illness and so are massively reducing both in the community. This reduces the strain on health services. With long ambulance delays already happening anyone in urgent need is now at risk. Hospital staffing levels are also under pressure as the infected and their contacts (1500 currently) have to isolate. Yet the usual fuckwits have nothing better to do than post their usual hysterical nonsense. Save us from fools fucksticks and frauds!

Serious question here….what the fuck are you on about? Everyone is vaccinated- 95% of the state- yet you’re still bleating about vaccines?

You think the problem here is the few people who still aren’t vaccinated? That’s a serious misread of the situation.

I guess you’ve just got to keep pushing down on that accelerator even though the wheels are spinning furiously hey bloke?

You’re still awaiting your next instruction on which phrase to parrot now that “pandemic of the unvaccinated “ has been shown to be irredeemable rubbish. Channel nine will be along shortly with some more bullet points you can adopt as your own thinking bloke.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 7:38pm
blindboy wrote:

Vaccines on average are still 30-40% effective against omicron infection and around 70% effective against serious illness and so are massively reducing both in the community. This reduces the strain on health services. With long ambulance delays already happening anyone in urgent need is now at risk. Hospital staffing levels are also under pressure as the infected and their contacts (1500 currently) have to isolate. Yet the usual fuckwits have nothing better to do than post their usual hysterical nonsense. Save us from fools fucksticks and frauds!

England has the army moving in to drive ambulances…they are also worried if it gets into the fire depts, whole stations could be closed down.

Cancer detection and surgery is halted…etc etc

This is the part snowflakes and other anti vax clowns don’t get.

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 7:51pm

The problem here is that the ambulances have to be cleaned after any patient with respiratory symptoms and that takes quite a bit of time.

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Snuffy Smith Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 7:53pm

Now here's a thought how about either Blow in, burlesque or shorty go hunt out Covid have a real go at trying to find it and when you do roll around with it for a while and be sure to get a good smothering. Come back here and report how you went then your opinion might mean something.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 7:54pm
Roadkill wrote:
blindboy wrote:

Vaccines on average are still 30-40% effective against omicron infection and around 70% effective against serious illness and so are massively reducing both in the community. This reduces the strain on health services. With long ambulance delays already happening anyone in urgent need is now at risk. Hospital staffing levels are also under pressure as the infected and their contacts (1500 currently) have to isolate. Yet the usual fuckwits have nothing better to do than post their usual hysterical nonsense. Save us from fools fucksticks and frauds!

England has the army moving in to drive ambulances…they are also worried if it gets into the fire depts, whole stations could be closed down.

Cancer detection and surgery is halted…etc etc

This is the part snowflakes and other anti vax clowns don’t get.

Don’t worry. We get it. And the solution is to not shut every place down when they get the sniffles or someone close that has the sniffles.
Be healthy, be fit, take control of your body and let it do what it’s meant to do.
Don’t be hungover, as your body will put its energy elsewhere
Don’t eat shit food, same thing
Get outside and exercise

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 8:01pm
Snuffy Smith wrote:

Now here's a thought how about either Blow in, burlesque or shorty go hunt out Covid have a real go at trying to find it and when you do roll around with it for a while and be sure to get a good smothering. Come back here and report how you went then your opinion might mean something.

I get up EVERY single morning and train my ass off, i surf every day, I eat the right nutritious food, don’t drink or smoke. I’ve given my body every single chance to fight off the virus champ.
I have no doubt I will catch covid, do I want it? Or course not, same as any flu, but I’m ready.

What do you do each day to prepare? Apart from getting injected with poison

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 7:58pm
Blowin wrote:

This is how you make the conscious decision to run an economy into the ground. Pump more free cash, debase the currency and watch the inflation rate eat away the accumulated debt so that it can be replaced with …..MOAR debt.

I think there might be some truth to this. Waiting for the indexes to roll over will not reveal the economic carnage, for the indexes tend to benefit from the printing. If you shut the hospitality businesses with lockdowns, they suffer. But if infection rates get out of hand, many customers will stop patronage and they are fucked without the handouts of the former situation. Add to shipping and supply chain chaos. So the economy runs into the ground.

It's a Potemkin village of an economy anyway. Maybe we should crash it. Our former economy had a great mix of primary production, manufacturing value-adding and financial/services were the cream on the top. The latter has now taken over, the manufacturing wiped out - it is far less resilient. What will we do in a war situation? Cook exquisite meals for the enemy?

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 8:01pm

"What will we do in a war situation? Cook exquisite meals for the enemy?"

Classic VJ!

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 8:08pm

burleigh hard training actually increases your risk of respiratory infections. A little knowledge as they say....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mysportscience.com/amp/strategies-to-re...

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burleigh Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 8:11pm
blindboy wrote:

burleigh hard training actually increases your risk of respiratory infections. A little knowledge as they say....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mysportscience.com/amp/strategies-to-re...

You’ve posted some bat shit crazy things but this takes the cake.
Hahahahahahha

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shoredump Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 8:12pm

Beat me to it Burleigh.
Roadkill my friend, no I don’t get why you want to shut down fire stations for 7 days just because the crew came into contact with someone yet didn’t fall ill.
It’s a stupid way to handle an emergency. This is all industries we are talking about. How about your local power station, are you good with that shutting down as well?

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blindboy Thursday, 23 Dec 2021 at 8:25pm

burleigh offers health advice......take it at your own risk! He knows sfa.
How many references do you need knucklehead?
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095254618301005