COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 12:20pm
Blowin wrote:

Omicron is a Pfizer marketing campaign.

Boosters!!!!!!!!!!

blowin making a late charge at the Swellnet idiot of 2021 comp.

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 12:22pm

I put this up the other day. It’s the UK version of what we are experiencing regards the spin marketing provided by a predetermined modelling outcome. The politicians know the controls they want to implement, in this case it’s Pfizer Crazy Low Low prices everything must go BOOSTER mandates , and they hire a modelling crew to pump out the desired outcome.

It’s got nothing to do with the virus and everything to do with shifting product.

BOOSTERS!!!!

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-cha...

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 12:32pm

The suspense is killing me!

The future of Australian society has been reduced to a manufactured binary of mandated boosters or mandated boosters …..I wonder what the outcome could possibly be?

Lol

Enormous pressure on testing! We can’t have that! Let’s forcibly inject everyone with more toxic shit to save the testing !

Won’t anyone think of the pressures on testing?

“Battle Omicold outbreaks” AKA no symptoms everyone goes about their lives.

PANIC NOW and run to GET BOOSTED ! If you miss out , which you probably will if you haven’t already PANICKED as instructed , you have a 0.0001% chance of dying whilst testing positive to Omicold. Are you willing to roll the dice on a bet when the meagre odds of living are only 99.9999999 out of 100?

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Island Bay Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 12:25pm
blindboy wrote:

They were asked to model certain scenarios, not make a forecast of the most probable outcome. It wasn't a weather report, it was presumably, a document to assist decision makers understand the possible consequences of their decisions......so yep a dickhead journalist looking for clickbait.

Should I go outside? Well, worst case scenario is that on asteroid hits you on the head, or an ice cream truck smashes into you. Ok, better not, then. Very sciency, not.

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blindboy Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 12:29pm

ib you're not making sense now. As VL pointed out the only decisions to be made in weather forecasting concern physical phenomena. In the case of covid the decisions made by people in positions of responsibility are a huge influence on the outcome.

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Island Bay Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 12:33pm

You don't understand science, bb.

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 12:39pm
blindboy wrote:

ib you're not making sense now. As VL pointed out the only decisions to be made in weather forecasting concern physical phenomena. In the case of covid the decisions made by people in positions of responsibility are a huge influence on the outcome.

God you’re a committed dum cnt aren’t you bloke?

You sit there acting as though the whole modelling exercise has been undertaken in good faith when the only input which has been made public is fraudulent and guaranteed to provide maximum negative aspect to the outcome.

There is not a slice of evidence on the whole planet that Omicold is as severe as Delta. None. Zilch. Nada. It doesn’t exist. There’s been less than a handful deaths amongst millions of cases worldwide and they were people on the edge of being Ex Humans already. Yet the modelling is premised on the lie that Omicold is as severe as delta. It’s a cynical marketing campaign for the soon-to-be-unveiled Booster firesale.

And here we are with you parroting your “ The modelling isn’t intended to influence public thinking towards a desired outcome….it’s science!”.

Pfffffffft fuck off with your relentless denial of the obvious.

You’re still trying to incite public panic. You’re a disgrace.

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blindboy Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 12:55pm

Ha ha, great thing about Blowie is he always signals when he knows he has lost the argument by going for the crude sexual insult.

"You don't understand science, bb."

Mate I don't know what you are talking about but it is certainly not science if you are unable to recognise the difference between a document aimed at informing decision makers and a regular weather forecast. If a government agency wanted a worst case scenario to prepare for a potential cyclone hit on a town, what would you do? Send them the most probable outcome? I don't think so.

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:15pm

Lost the argument?

Take your pills old bloke. You’re hallucinating.

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sypkan Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:19pm
Blowin wrote:

Lost the argument?

Take your pills old bloke. You’re hallucinating.

again...

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Supafreak Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:23pm

Scotty was just on the idiot box telling us all not to take any notice of the modeling , it was a worse case scenario . Modeling from the start has looked at worse case scenarios and it hasn’t happened . Now come on ,we all know Scotty wouldn’t lie .

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sypkan Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:24pm

it really is funny when ol' boy pulls this one out

especially because he goes rabid next level name calling if someone corners him...

you seriously cannot be that delusional?

about 'winning' and name calling...

can you?

if you are... seek help, seriously

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:29pm

“ If a government agency wanted a worst case scenario to prepare for a potential cyclone hit on a town, what would you do?”

But here’s the thing….these aren’t worst case scenarios. They’re fraudulent misrepresentation of possible outcome. They’ve taken lies and multiplied them by false data to arrive at a predetermined outcome so as to legitimise unnecessary governmental action.

You refuse to acknowledge that the government has its plans drawn up and the modelling is tailored to suit. The modelling is the sales pitch for a government still hesitant to take that final leap into outright authoritarianism. The government is going to mandate boosters, they always were going to and this is how they maintain the illusion.

It’s got nothing to do with science and everything to do with marketing.

That’s what you are defending? Its called propaganda bloke. It’s not based on fact or truth.

I’d ask why you’re encouraging government telling lies to convince everyone about an equally fraudulent future except it’s obvious. You are an authoritarian and that’s what authoritarians do in order to control the population they rule at their whim.

You said as much when you earlier said that it was necessary to have the previous over the top scare campaign in order to get everyone vaccinated. Ergo if people had known the truth they would not have gotten vaccinated.

You feel no qualms about the government lying to the population because you are of the belief that the government is entitled to coerce and control the stupid population for the population’s good. This is the fundamental difference between you and I.

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blindboy Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:42pm

Blowin you are a particulalrly paranoid android. Everything is conspiracy. No-one is just trying to do their job as best they can. Everyone has an underhand motive. It must be a pretty miserable existence.

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:43pm

Instead of entering the case fatality data for Delta into the Omicold value in the modelling, why didn’t they just enter the case fatality rate for failed parachute openings and be done with it?

It must have been tempting.

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:46pm
blindboy wrote:

Blowin you are a particulalrly paranoid android. Everything is conspiracy. No-one is just trying to do their job as best they can. Everyone has an underhand motive. It must be a pretty miserable existence.

OK bloke. You explain why the modelling about to be used as justification for mandated booster shots used fraudulent data values for the severity of the Omicold strain.

There’s no evidence in the universe which suggests that Omicold is anywhere remotely as severe as Delta but they used Delta data in the Omicold modelling.

Why? Convenience?

Give it up bloke. You are pushing shit uphill with a sharp stick If you think you can bullshit your way around this fraudulent behaviour.

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gragagan Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:49pm

I never paid any attention to the modelling myself. They always looked like an accumulated assumption of worst-case scenarios. The powers that be attempting to scare the people not taking it seriously into taking it a bit more seriously and follow restrictions. And the media then using it as clickbait in headlines. I think they were intended to be some sort of indication as to what could happen if nothing was done at all, ie no vax, no restrictions etc.
I don't watch commercial TV news anyway, and don't believe a lot of what is on ch 7, 9 or 10. So the "brainwashed by ch 7" doesn't apply here. And I definitely don't believe anything scotty from marketing says.

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gragagan Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:53pm

Would be nice if they told us if it's omichron or goodrem that's currently spreading around here

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blindboy Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:53pm

"You explain why the modelling about to be used as justification for mandated booster shots used fraudulent data values for the severity of the Omicold strain."

So what mandated booster shots are you talking about?

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groundswell Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 1:58pm

Even though ive had two shots of pfyzer i have to admit i dont trust the government or pfyzer. Something just doesnt add up and i dont think the shots work as well as they are supposed to. Check out the rates in the UK and something just doesnt add up. Too much bs on both sides of the argument. Why should unvaxed people avoid other vaxed people? i just dont get it.

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 2:06pm

I’m paranoid?

Bloke…the USA has done its very, very best to ruin the health of the US citizenry for decades.

/ They’ve made access to medical care exclusive to the wealthy.

/ They refuse to provide basic nutritional or dietary education in the public system.

/ They allowed corrupt corporations to reduce their health industry to a neoliberal human exploitation model.

/They’ve overseen, encouraged and enabled an opioid epidemic which has killed hundreds of thousands of citizens for private profit.

/They’ve criminalised recreational drug use so that the vulnerable end up,in prison, destitute, homeless, mentally destroyed or dead.

/ they’ve utterly bastardised food production and rendered foodstuff for the average person as denutritionalised, over processed toxic sludge which sets everyone on a course to disease and death.

/They refuse to promote healthy living in any way, shape or form. Their society prioritises vehicle sales over human movement and exercise at every opportunity.

/ Medicines are priced at perpetually elevated expense whilst 4 gallon sugar laden sodas are more available than toxin free water.

But yeah bloke …. Why would I be disbelieving about the US dedication to public health at any cost.?

And that’s who’s leading the charge.

They invade Iraq chasing weapons of mass destruction, we invade Iraq chasing weapons of mass destruction.

They mandate 3 shots of toxic sludge into healthy and invulnerable people, we mandate 3 shots of toxic sludge into healthy and invulnerable people.

You used to say “ God fuck Amerikkka “ now you say “ Yes”m m’lord”.

What happened to you?

Show me on the doll where Joe Biden touched you.

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blindboy Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 2:07pm

.......yeh yeh whatever you say but what about these mandated boosters? Or was that some kind of hallucination?

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sypkan Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 2:10pm

"Show me on the doll where Joe Biden touched you."

right assessment... wrong weirdo...

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synchrodogcal Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 2:12pm

this thread is a fascinating study on the daily regression of possibly otherwise sane adult males, into caricatures of hangry toddlers in a virtual sandpit

actually fascinating might be the wrong word... nauseating perhaps?

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blindboy Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 2:14pm

So "mandated boosters" was just bullshit to scare the punters then? Pretty pathetic mate!

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 2:26pm
blindboy wrote:

So "mandated boosters" was just bullshit to scare the punters then? Pretty pathetic mate!

You’ll catch up bloke.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 2:48pm

Scotty is live now on ABC

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burleigh Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 3:47pm
blindboy wrote:

So "mandated boosters" was just bullshit to scare the punters then? Pretty pathetic mate!

WA just announced this mate for workers

Federal still waiting on advise from TGA but we know money talks there so expect the term “fully vaxxed” to be three shots very soon

I focus's picture
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I focus Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 4:37pm
Blowin wrote:

I’m paranoid?

Bloke…the USA has done its very, very best to ruin the health of the US citizenry for decades.

/ They’ve made access to medical care exclusive to the wealthy.

/ They refuse to provide basic nutritional or dietary education in the public system.

/ They allowed corrupt corporations to reduce their health industry to a neoliberal human exploitation model.

/They’ve overseen, encouraged and enabled an opioid epidemic which has killed hundreds of thousands of citizens for private profit.

/They’ve criminalised recreational drug use so that the vulnerable end up,in prison, destitute, homeless, mentally destroyed or dead.

/ they’ve utterly bastardised food production and rendered foodstuff for the average person as denutritionalised, over processed toxic sludge which sets everyone on a course to disease and death.

/They refuse to promote healthy living in any way, shape or form. Their society prioritises vehicle sales over human movement and exercise at every opportunity.

/ Medicines are priced at perpetually elevated expense whilst 4 gallon sugar laden sodas are more available than toxin free water.

But yeah bloke …. Why would I be disbelieving about the US dedication to public health at any cost.?

And that’s who’s leading the charge.

They invade Iraq chasing weapons of mass destruction, we invade Iraq chasing weapons of mass destruction.

They mandate 3 shots of toxic sludge into healthy and invulnerable people, we mandate 3 shots of toxic sludge into healthy and invulnerable people.

You used to say “ God fuck Amerikkka “ now you say “ Yes”m m’lord”.

What happened to you?

Show me on the doll where Joe Biden touched you.

Blowin there an element of truth in a lot of those statements and of course much worse comes from the US and I also hold criticisms some off the cultural / political stuff is beyond redemption IMHO.

However there are greater complexities that make up the US besides the dark side.

Some of the greatest advances right across the sciences with massive benefits have come from the US, medical and drug break throughs and advances often at the forefront.

Differentiating culture from sciences is key.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 4:43pm

In world first, Israel set to give 4th COVID shot to over 60s, at-risk groups. https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-ministry-panel-recommends-fourth-co...

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mattlock Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 5:16pm

After reading a lot of posts and links on this thread such as the one above from aaron61 [disregarding extremust views from both camps] I'll be in no hurry to get my kids covidvaxed, if at all, especially my 5yr old boy.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 5:34pm

Just had a Xmas call from a family member who just happens to be a highly (elite) trained critical care nurse (25 yrs experience) who works in the Covid ward of one of Melbourne’s major hospitals.

Surprise surprise the vast majority (90%+) of current patients are unvaccinated and many are very angry /irrational people making their medical care all the more difficult.

You can’t argue with stupid.

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gragagan Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 5:42pm

Surely they can eject an unvaxed patient with covid if they become aggressive and threaten staff.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 5:51pm
GuySmiley wrote:

Just had a Xmas call from a family member who just happens to be a highly (elite) trained critical care nurse (25 yrs experience) who works in the Covid ward of one of Melbourne’s major hospitals.

Surprise surprise the vast majority (90%+) of current patients are unvaccinated and many are very angry /irrational people making their medical care all the more difficult.

You can’t argue with stupid.

You should have asked your family member if any of them was called Burleigh, blowin or shortenism

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GuySmiley Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 6:01pm
gragagan wrote:

Surely they can eject an unvaxed patient with covid if they become aggressive and threaten staff.

No but they have been required to have security staff at hand, contemplate that for a minute

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 6:41pm
Vic Local wrote:
GuySmiley wrote:

Just had a Xmas call from a family member who just happens to be a highly (elite) trained critical care nurse (25 yrs experience) who works in the Covid ward of one of Melbourne’s major hospitals.

Surprise surprise the vast majority (90%+) of current patients are unvaccinated and many are very angry /irrational people making their medical care all the more difficult.

You can’t argue with stupid.

You should have asked your family member if any of them was called Burleigh, blowin or shortenism

Why would we be there?

Vaccination doesn’t matter as much as being healthy. There’ll be shitloads more vaccinated fat cunts than unvaccinated healthy crew….fact.

Something the die hard bigot segregationist medical apartheid gronks choose to forget.

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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 7:22pm
aaron61 wrote:

https://globalcovidsummit.org/news/thousands-of-physicians-and-scientist...

mattlock wrote:

After reading a lot of posts and links on this thread such as the one above from aaron61 [disregarding extremust views from both camps] I'll be in no hurry to get my kids covidvaxed, if at all, especially my 5yr old boy.

Very Interesting website, seems to be well supported by many relevant medical people etc

Did a little google to see if i kind find some dirt on it or discredit it, but nothing???

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burleigh Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 7:53pm
GuySmiley wrote:

Just had a Xmas call from a family member who just happens to be a highly (elite) trained critical care nurse (25 yrs experience) who works in the Covid ward of one of Melbourne’s major hospitals.

Surprise surprise the vast majority (90%+) of current patients are unvaccinated and many are very angry /irrational people making their medical care all the more difficult.

You can’t argue with stupid.

Did you happen to ask him how fat these unvaxxed people are in hospital? Or anything about their health? Or nah the important stuff not so important to your agenda?

As you said, you can’t argue with stupid

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Blowin Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 7:58pm

Or if they are in hospital specifically for covid?

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Distracted Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 8:28pm

Regarding the kids. If the initial strategy was to vaccinate the kids to reduce transmission in the community then that sort of made sense with the delta variant, as the reduction in transmission was shown to happen in Sydney with the vax push.

However, now with the omnicron variant, vaccination appears to be having negligible impact on transmission. So if that’s the case then unless the kids have relevant health issues then I can’t see much point in getting them vaccinated now.

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udo Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 8:30pm
blindboy's picture
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blindboy Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 8:43pm

Here they are the three front runners for the major awards.
Idiot Of The Year
Best Bullshitter
.....and the premiere Swellchan award
Biggest Arsehole

This year we have three all rounders each in the running . The bookies have Indo favourite for the Idiot though with burleigh making a late run. For Best Bullshitter the running is the other way around burleigh with the edge on Indo. For Biggest Arsehole though it is Blowin out in front by the full lengrh of his enormous ego. His total absence of empathy, his consistent punching down, his instantaneous abuse for anyone daring to disagree and his constant resort to sexual insult reveal a personality devoid of a single redeeming aspect. So let us acclaim, once again, Swellchan's most prolific poster, its most consistent source of negative emotion, yes he's the Kelly Slater of arseholery the one (let us give thanks) and only BLOWIE!

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GuySmiley Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 8:53pm
burleigh wrote:
GuySmiley wrote:

Just had a Xmas call from a family member who just happens to be a highly (elite) trained critical care nurse (25 yrs experience) who works in the Covid ward of one of Melbourne’s major hospitals.

Surprise surprise the vast majority (90%+) of current patients are unvaccinated and many are very angry /irrational people making their medical care all the more difficult.

You can’t argue with stupid.

Did you happen to ask him how fat these unvaxxed people are in hospital? Or anything about their health? Or nah the important stuff not so important to your agenda?

As you said, you can’t argue with stupid

Careful what you ask for .....

Actually many are young, fit and with no co-morbidities .... and still in denial that Covid exists ...

so, you really really can’t argue with stupid

https://m.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 9:03pm

How's Perrottet and Scumo this week? Personal responsibility on covid? we don't mandate hats to stop skin cancer. FFS These two utter fuckwits can't / won't do their fucking jobs and have outsourced covid safety to the general public. This is pure madness.. Does anyone here think turds like blowin, burleigh, shortenism et al would ever act in a personally responsible manner if they A, were told to get a test, B. told to isolate until they got the results, C.got covid and were told to isolate, D would not go out if they had the sniffles, E would wear a mask if they didn't have to.
Scumo's personal responsibility pleas mean fuck all to anti-vax anti lockdown fuckwits.

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zenagain Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 9:06pm

Congratulations Blowie.

;)

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sypkan Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 9:20pm
zenagain wrote:

Congratulations Blowie.

;)

yeh, an effortless win ...it seems...

though looking at the criteria...

"For Biggest Arsehole though it is Blowin out in front by the full lengrh of his enormous ego. His total absence of empathy, his consistent punching down, his instantaneous abuse for anyone daring to disagree and his constant resort to sexual insult reveal a personality devoid of a single redeeming aspect."

...blindboy gave him a good run...

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 9:28pm

newsflash

corona solved

no more moralising, aggression and hostility required, problem targeted at the sauce...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.today.com/today/amp/tdna218032

killing two birds with one stone?

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 9:29pm

I gotta say...

the biden whitehouse really is chock full of shit ideas

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 22 Dec 2021 at 9:31pm

and on a different planet...

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/japan-urges-pub...

now that seems a somewhat mature and approach