COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
blindboy wrote:Says our resident expert on everything.
That’s direct data from the medical expert in charge of the global epicentre, hotspot and the most experienced omicron experts in the world.
But you do you Blindboy…..you’re a much more reliable expert testimony with your 40 minutes per day regurgitating the same decades old 101 biology parrot fashion to stoned teenagers.
Go bloke …..you’re an honorary expert!
AndyM wrote:A few people round here have had Covid in the past week or two.
Total non-event, you wouldn't have even known.
Doesn't mean we shouldn't take it seriously in the broader sense though.
Hated seeing Smoko's name at the bottom of the government letter promoting booster shots but I'll get one nonetheless if it's justified.
Clotty Morrison never left marketing.
Now he’s working on Pfizer’s big campaign.
The Queensland border crossing requirements for a test result 72 hours before crossing have caused chaos at the North Coast public testing clinics. Five hour waits as holiday makers stage there trip up the coast before hitting the border.
Isn’t it weird how Blindboy lives and dies by demanding statistics and evidence….right up until they ruin his personal beliefs.
And then they don’t seem to count.
Blindboy 101 !
As the virus continues to spread through the vaccinated the lies from our premiers and “health experts” become clearer, the vaccine does NOT stop transmission and the virus will NOT hunt down the unvaccinated.
I now notice they have stopped short of saying that it stops transmission now and are now focusing on case numbers in hospitals as the important reason to get vaccinated which I agree with.
Vaccinate the vulnerable and let us live our lives, the virus is spreading and it doesn’t kill or hospitalise fit, healthy people, if you’re not fit and healthy get vaccinated. It’s pretty simple.
Open the borders and if you’re scared, wear a face nappy and don’t go inside.
The current model of being a fully vaccinated close contact and isolating is insane, cafes are half full, restaurants half full, holidays being cancelled. Not many are scared of the virus, they are scared of being locked inside.
This shit is insane.
Distracted wrote:The Queensland border crossing requirements for a test result 72 hours before crossing have caused chaos at the North Coast public testing clinics. Five hour waits as holiday makers stage there trip up the coast before hitting the border.
Cause it takes waaaaaay longer than 72 hours to catch a virus!
Lol
Drawing a conclusion on two sets of data collected under very different conditions is not "statistics". It's just the usual bullshit with added numbers.
burleigh, how do we become as manly and brave as you? Is there a pill we can take that gives us big manly balls allowing us to overcome fears about corona virus? Or is it more of a mental approach to becoming so brave and manly that face nappies are no longer required.. One day I want to be so big and manly like you so I can call other people wimps and softcocks because they let the virus impact their freedumbs.
Distracted wrote:The Queensland border crossing requirements for a test result 72 hours before crossing have caused chaos at the North Coast public testing clinics. Five hour waits as holiday makers stage there trip up the coast before hitting the border.
Melbourne a complete mess now too due to travel testing requirements. Too bad if you actually have the sniffles
blindboy wrote:Drawing a conclusion on two sets of data collected under very different conditions is not "statistics". It's just the usual bullshit with added numbers.
How are the conditions very different when it’s the same virus?
But yeah, bloke….you parrot your Atari- level hypothetical “modelling” by the same imperial college who said that the US would have 5 million dead by now Bloke and then tell us that “ evidence suggests “ …..PANIC!
The answer is always PANIC with you bloke.
Genuine question: Are you as scared of covid with it’s 99.98% survival rate as you were of Trump’s nuclear war which had a 100% survival rate?
Lolol….Bloke!
Unfun fact: More Australians die each year from mesothelioma than covid yet you can walk down any street and find asbestos houses with kids playing inside. But we need locking down for the Omicold!
@rj-davey - Agreed .
blowin, you are such a big manly man who loves to yell PANIC at other people. So very brave, you must charge 20ft slabs big man. Still pushing the absolute BS about a 99.98% survival rate. FFS that's getting very old and very pathetic.
Vic Local wrote:burleigh, how do we become as manly and brave as you? Is there a pill we can take that gives us big manly balls allowing us to overcome fears about corona virus? Or is it more of a mental approach to becoming so brave and manly that face nappies are no longer required.. One day I want to be so big and manly like you so I can call other people wimps and softcocks because they let the virus impact their freedumbs.
Hey VIC Local….you’d be getting excited about the approaching lockdowns wouldn’t you? Another epic chance for you to grift tens of thousands of dollars off Aussie taxpayers! I bet you’re spruiking our need to be locked down hard already!
Kaching bloke kaching!
Grift bloke grift!
Milk those taxpayers dry!
Vic Local wrote:blowin, you are such a big manly man who loves to yell PANIC at other people. So very brave, you must charge 20ft slabs big man. Still pushing the absolute BS about a 99.98% survival rate. FFS that's getting very old and very pathetic.
I’ve got to be honest bloke….you’re on the money!
The Australian all ages survival rate is actually 99.16% . But if you consider that 80% of Australian covid deaths are amongst the age group older than the average Australian life expectancy ( 82 years ) and then remove deaths above that , the fatality rate is 99.98%.
It’s 100% survival rate for the unvaccinated under tens who Pfizer has just announced will require THREE doses of the vaccine because apparently …..wait for it…..their immune systems are too weak with just TWO Pfizer jabs !
Now that’d be real funny if it wasn’t fucken despicable.
The survival rate for healthy people under 50 is 99.999%.
In the UK with their shitty health, obesity, cold weather and poor diet ….guess how many healthy under 50s have died from covid in twenty months of HECTIC DEATH PLAGUE amongst 70,000,000 people?
Less than 140. That’s 70 per year Bloke. When you consider that 360 people die each year from choking then surely the UK is about to mandate a baby food only diet for the entire population hey! Anything to save any life!
But still…..PANIC BLOKE!!!!!
( But don’t forget to send those bills for Ching Ching grift to the taxpayers bloke ! )
"How are the conditions very different when it’s the same virus?" Ha ha ha.
Having proved he is innumerate, he follows up with illogical ! Aaah Blowie for all your efforts to piss people off, you're still the best bet on here for a good laugh!
Vic Local wrote:burleigh, how do we become as manly and brave as you? Is there a pill we can take that gives us big manly balls allowing us to overcome fears about corona virus? Or is it more of a mental approach to becoming so brave and manly that face nappies are no longer required.. One day I want to be so big and manly like you so I can call other people wimps and softcocks because they let the virus impact their freedumbs.
Thanks for asking. It’s pretty easy actually. Turn off the TV and radio. Take some deep breaths, eat some vegetables, go for a run and take control of your own health.
blindboy wrote:"How are the conditions very different when it’s the same virus?" Ha ha ha.
Having proved he is innumerate, he follows up with illogical ! Aaah Blowie for all your efforts to piss people off, you're still the best bet on here for a good laugh!
Yep. No data to back up your claim = bullshit.
If you don’t want to provide anything beyond “ Because I said so “ , then no is going to take you seriously Bloke.
And they don’t take you seriously.
burleigh wrote:Vic Local wrote:burleigh, how do we become as manly and brave as you? Is there a pill we can take that gives us big manly balls allowing us to overcome fears about corona virus? Or is it more of a mental approach to becoming so brave and manly that face nappies are no longer required.. One day I want to be so big and manly like you so I can call other people wimps and softcocks because they let the virus impact their freedumbs.
Thanks for asking. It’s pretty easy actually. Turn off the TV and radio. Take some deep breaths, eat some vegetables, go for a run and take control of your own health.
I don’t get how it’s supposedly hyper masculine to not be afraid of a virus which has killed literally less than a handful healthy people my age? Maybe not even that many? There is a studious avoidance in releasing data about covid victims in Australia.
I’m entitled to state that not a single Australian in my age bracket has died primarily from covid and there’s no evidence to contradict me.
What is there to be scared of?
It’s not glib, downplaying or untrue to say I’m much , much more likely to be injured on the roads or in the surf.
I think the problem is that Vic Local is such a chickenshit softcock that he has no idea how much of a chickenshit softcock he is compared to normal people.
I don’t like 20 foot barrels but Vic Local cars like someone afraid of a half filled bath whilst lifeguards watch.
Then again….it’s very profitable for the Pandemic Profiteering Grifters such as Vic Local to hype up the DEATH PLAGUE and demand lockdowns so he gets more of that Ching Ching.
Blowin, the level of immunity in the community increased as a result of both vaccination and previous infection making comparison not merely invalid, but so obviously so, as to suggest (surprise surprise) another deliberate attempt to mislead by our premier bullshit artist.
Blowin, the level of immunity in the community increased as a result of both vaccination and previous infection making comparison not merely invalid, but so obviously so, as to suggest (surprise surprise) another deliberate attempt to mislead by our premier bullshit artist.
blindboy wrote:Blowin, the level of immunity in the community increased as a result of both vaccination and previous infection making comparison not merely invalid, but so obviously so, as to suggest (surprise surprise) another deliberate attempt to mislead by our premier bullshit artist.
Sorry bloke. I keep forgetting you can’t do basic maths. I’ll dumb it down just so you can understand that your “But, but , but! “ is just more Blindboy dumb cnt stuff.
Australia- Subtract the 20% of the population under 12 ( 5 M)
76% fully vaccinated = 20M * 0.24= 4.8M unvaccinated.and vulnerable ( lol). You could subtract another 250k for acquired immunity if you want.
Say 4.5M vulnerable Australians.
That is only 7% of South Africa’s population.
Allegedly South Africa has attained 70% acquired immunity . But you’ve gone to gear pains to say it’s fact that prior immunity is no,protection against the virus, particularly the deadly Omicold” and so that figure is basically useless. Either way it leaves 18M South Africans vulnerable to the death plague. Sure there’s a 23% vaccination rate but there’d be fair overlap between vaccination and acquired immunity….say 50%. This still leaves 13M South Africans vulnerable.
More than Australia’s vulnerable even if you count out unaffected children.
Your sums don’t add up Blindboy. You always discount the difference in population size. That’s what dumb cnts do I guess!
Hey….there’s a reason you were parroting science 101 and not maths 101 !
Yet you want to tell me there’s a gulf between outcomes? Lol
Just come out and say it Blindboy. It’s because a lot of South Africans are black and you think they’re anatomically different. You think that’s the reason you there would be the huge difference you prophesies between the outcomes of the same virus on the same numbers of people at the same latitude.
Tell me Blindboy. Why do you insist that the US be constantly referenced as a comparator for the Australian covid experience but not South Africa?
I think it must be racism.
You’re a horrible person and I think that you should be banned from the internet. You might influence an innocent lolly pop sucking babe somewhere. I think it’s best for the community if you were muzzled in public.
.
Nonsense and insults, as usual. Conditions look better from my window, might be time to have a splash. Have a rest digger, stress and anger are unhealthy.
Not every perplexing covid related decision has a sinister money making motive behind it.
Avoiding blame for bad stuff plays a big role.
Do what experts advise is a safe zone even if you have doubts.
Then there is Mike Tyson's observation "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face" which ties in with the covid the truism that what can go wrong often does and explains many recent events.
And, there is risk management matrices where there are definitions for consequence that can vary widely depending on perspective.
For example, what is defined as Catastrophic for a large business could be:
Health and safety: "One or more fatalities, or severe injury to one or more people."
With covid, the scale of consequence ratchets up to a whole new level but is still very emotive especially for some age groups even with small numbers.
But to understand a Health Minister's perspective, spend 5 minutes jotting down a definition of what would be an acceptable Moderate consequence for covid deaths for children under 12 per month and imagine stating that in a media conference and justifying it and you will see why we are where we are.
"Minister, could you explain to the parents of 8 year old XXXX who recently died of covid why that is only a moderate consequence that should be acceptable."
The case fatality rate (CFR) can provide an indication of the severity of a disease.
I'm not completely sure of blowin's maths methods to calculate the fatality rate but I think it goes something like this.
Add up all the deaths, (minus all the old people or those who are overweight). divide that number by the number of infections (but add 50% for margin of error), Deduct young people because they don't count. Add 250,000 for those who have already had covid. Divide everything using a South African case rate and then add the multivariate co-efficient created by blowin for other random factors and bingo, you get a 99.98% survival rate. Simples and anyone who is scared of covid based on that survival rate is a chickenshit girlie man, not a big balled hero like blowin.
Of the 33 people in ICU in NSW 26 are unvaccinated. That is a pretty big representation considering the small percentage of unvaxxed in the community.
old-dog wrote:Of the 33 people in ICU in NSW 26 are unvaccinated. That is a pretty big representation considering the small percentage of unvaxxed in the community.
I'm sure blowin and burleigh will somehow find a way to use those stats to prove vaccines don't work.
Vic Local wrote:old-dog wrote:Of the 33 people in ICU in NSW 26 are unvaccinated. That is a pretty big representation considering the small percentage of unvaxxed in the community.
I'm sure blowin and burleigh will somehow find a way to use those stats to prove vaccines don't work.
Show me the stats please.
The maths is pretty simple
251,000 recorded Covid cases in Australia
2,134 Covid deaths in Australia
1% of 251,000= 2,510
Thats pretty close to a 99% survival rate.
But really it's better than that because this is only the known number of Covid cases, who knows how many people have Covid and dont get tested either not having any symptoms or just over getting tested every time they have some of the symptoms.
It's fair to say the number would be pretty big.
Then add to that just because someone dies with Covid doesn't mean they died from Covid.
So really in Australia Blowin's stats are pretty realistic.
But i should add, it is a bit misleading to just look at the stats as we never let Covid rip while people were unvaccinated and now most are vaccinated we aren't going to see the same number of percentage of deaths that we would see if had same Covid numbers in community without vaccination.
"So really in Australia Blowin's stats are pretty realistic."
Except of course they are not. They are not even close.
If covid had blowin's survival rate(99.98%) there would only be 50 deaths in Australia. There's been 2500. He's out by a factor of 5000%.
ID. I've used your figures. It was extremely silly of you to try and defend blowin's maths. Both of you now look very foolish. And you work in finance? Ouch.
Vic Local wrote:"So really in Australia Blowin's stats are pretty realistic."
Except of course they are not. They are not even close.
If covid had blowin's survival rate(99.98%) there would only be 50 deaths in Australia. There's been 2500. He's out by a factor of 5000%.
ID. I've used your figures. It was extremely silly of you to try and defend blowin's maths. Both of you now look very foolish. And you work in finance? Ouch.
Where are your stats about NSW?
Where are your stats about NSW?
Oh FFS burleigh we were alway taking about Australia and your attempt to shift the goalposts is pretty silly. But hey, let's play that game.
NSW 643 deaths from 100K cases. Or in other words, blowin is only out by 3215% for NSW.
Fair dinkum you blokes, it's like you are trying to embarrass yourselves.
How protein-based COVID vaccines could change the pandemic https://t.co/vA6SMTjEcO Cant believe they miss the first full spike protein vaccine to get approved anywhere in the world, namely Covax-19/Spikogen which was approved by Iranian FDA in October 2021
— SP (@vaxine_news) November 18, 2021
Vic Local wrote:"So really in Australia Blowin's stats are pretty realistic."
Except of course they are not. They are not even close.
If covid had blowin's survival rate(99.98%) there would only be 50 deaths in Australia. There's been 2500. He's out by a factor of 5000%.
ID. I've used your figures. It was extremely silly of you to try and defend blowin's maths. Both of you now look very foolish. And you work in finance? Ouch.
Blowin's over stating things he should just drop a few percentage points even to 99.5% factor in unknown cases and thats a realistic figure, but his point is still there and that's the chances of dying from Covid for the majority of the population is extremely small even when unvaccinated, when vaccinated the chances of dying are even smaller.
On the flip side if you are old or have underlying health conditions or obese and get Covid, the chances of dying are far higher, especially if you tick all three boxes.
BTW. I dont work in finance I'm a tradie.
Thanks supa that Nature link is really informative.
blindboy wrote:Thanks supa that Nature link is really informative.
Pretty amazing though how they failed to recognise or mention Petrovsky has already had his vaccine approved , he’s had to change its original name also as gates is also using a similar name . Even if Petrovsky vaccine gets approved by the TGA its up to the government if it will be used in this country . CSL has already stated it’s not interested in producing the vaccine. We need alternative vaccines in Australia . This type of vaccine has proven to be very safe and may be the key to those that are hesitant. BB if you watched that video I posted on Petrovsky, he can change his vaccine to suit omicron very quickly and is already working on it ready for release early next year .
BTW. I dont work in finance I'm a tradie.
Apologies. I'm sure you know why measuring things accurately is important then. Get your 345 slightly wrong and then extrapolate the string line 50m and it's very wrong. Same same with blowin's figures.
the reality is, the survival rates have been improving in Australia. This is on the back of high vaccination rates. Our survival rates are also much better than other western nations because we chose to protect the health system from collapse by introducing strong lockdowns.
So to sum up. blowin's survival rates are wrong, very wrong, and if he got his way on lockdowns and vaccines, the death rates would be much higher.
Vic Local wrote:BTW. I dont work in finance I'm a tradie.
Apologies. I'm sure you know why measuring things accurately is important then. Get your 345 slightly wrong and then extrapolate the string line 50m and it's very wrong. Same same with blowin's figures.
the reality is, the survival rates have been improving in Australia. This is on the back of high vaccination rates. Our survival rates are also much better than other western nations because we chose to protect the health system from collapse by introducing strong lockdowns.
So to sum up. blowin's survival rates are wrong, very wrong, and if he got his way on lockdowns and vaccines, the death rates would be much higher.
Nothing to do with Delta now Omi-con being less deadly than the first strains. It's all thanks to big pharma. Their jab works so well you need it every three months in the UK. and every five months (for the moment) here.
Give it a rest VicMoron. Im still waiting for the stats from NSW about ICU patients too.
Not to speak for anyone, but just because I'd read it in reference to this mornings press conference (if you can call it that) by Perrottet that he said 26 of 33 in ICU at the moment are unvaccinated.
PS I appreciate everyone's passion on here, phwoar it's quite a read as they often are on here. My disclaimer, I'm in iso having caught this bloody thing, so in between the up and down, looking around a bit, which is in hindsight probably the worst thing to do :). Carry on...
owgoodaquads wrote:PS I appreciate everyone's passion on here, phwoar it's quite a read as they often are on here. My disclaimer, I'm in iso having caught this bloody thing, so in between the up and down, looking around a bit, which is in hindsight probably the worst thing to do :). Carry on...
Hope you're going ok and only if you're happy to answer. How are you feeling? symptoms? Do you know where you caught it from and if so how close and how long in contact for/masks etc? Vax status?
Hey lostdoggy, my standard response is ok but started off pretty rough and has eased off but there is a lot of up and down, feeling ok then dropping down a hole. Main symptom is fatigue with some chest discomfort, congestion and coughing up phlegm now but earlier had the full body aches and shakes. I'm in the Newcastle area so my check in history is a sea of red, and I don't even go out much :), but the contact tracer (Huey love her, she sounded exhausted) has put it down to a restaurant/bar I was at for a few hours. I'm double vaxxed and wore a mask except when eating/drinking, followed all the rules.
Thanks. Take care.
ATAGI to consider three-dose vaccine schedule as states push for earlier boosters. Australians may soon have to get a third dose to be considered fully vaccinated, as an expert taskforce weighs the evidence on the Omicron variant’s ability to evade vaccines and state governments push to bring forward the timing of booster shots.
Premiers will urge Prime Minister Scott Morrison to agree to speed up the schedule for booster shots when national cabinet holds an emergency meeting on Wednesday to discuss public health measures to curb rapidly increasing case numbers in NSW and Victoria. In advice to national cabinet seen by The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee warned that Omicron could “strain health system capacity” even if the variant caused milder illness, recommending “minimal to moderate restrictions” and increased efforts to boost vaccine coverage.
“Masks should be mandated in all indoor settings including retail, hospitality when not eating or drinking, and entertainment facilities,” the advice sent to the Prime Minister and state and territory leaders by Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/atagi-to-consider-three-dose-vac...
New Zealand links 26-year-old man's death to Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/new-zealand-links-26-year-old.... https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/nz-mans-death-may-be-linked-to-myocardit.... https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/586516-new-zealand-links-26-year-o...
Twenty six years old and coerced / forced into getting an injection which kills you . Someone needs to be punished for this bullshit. The virus would never have killed a healthy 26 year old. Mind blowing stuff.
“Maybe” you’ll need three shots to be considered vaccinated…..FFS. As if it was ever going to be any other way and as if three will be the end of it.
I’m so over this shit. They can stick their third jab in their arse. I’m not injecting their toxic rubbish to enable their politicking and profiteering.
Indo- The stats I provide are real. I’ll break it down for you later using the Australian government health stats. VIC Local can’t do maths unless he’s adding up the tens of thousands of dollars hevgrifted from taxpayers after hyping this virus for profit. Don’t believe a word that profiteer says …..he lies and scares people for money.
Blowin wrote:Twenty six years old and coerced / forced into getting an injection which kills you . Someone needs to be punished for this bullshit. The virus would never have killed a healthy 26 year old. Mind blowing stuff.
“Maybe” you’ll need three shots to be considered vaccinated…..FFS. As if it was ever going to be any other way and as if three will be the end of it.
I’m so over this shit. They can stick their third jab in their arse. I’m not injecting their toxic rubbish to enable their politicking and profiteering.
Indo- The stats I provide are real. I’ll break it down for you later using the Australian government health stats. VIC Local can’t do maths unless he’s adding up the tens of thousands of dollars hevgrifted from taxpayers after hyping this virus for profit. Don’t believe a word that profiteer says …..he lies and scares people for money.
Snowflake on point….I guess he has today’s ranting topic decided.
“New Zealand’s vaccine safety board also said another two people, including a 13-year-old, had died with possible myocarditis after taking their vaccinations. More details were needed before linking the child’s death to the vaccine, while the death of a man in his 60s was unlikely related to the vaccine, it said.” The parents of this girl must be devastated , it hasn’t been confirmed if the vaccine was the cause, either way they would be devastated.
Classic propaganda states "facts" and then draws, often illogical, conclusions from them. In this case the "facts" were that the man was coerced into being vaccinated and that he was previously healthy. There is no evidence for either.
The illogical conclusion here is that someone must be personally responsible and should be punished. The basic idea is that you start from your conclusion and manufacture the evidence. More importantly, the argument imust be highly emotional and express outrage, though the propagandist rarely feels anything. Their concerns are more broadly political. Shallow tedious stuff and quite out dated since the public, by long exposure is pretty much immune to these kind of naive ravings.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia