Interesting stuff
I can’t believe that Iran has started closing mosques and prevented pilgrims travelling to their holy land just to support Scomo through the sports rorts scandal and to help Rupert lift his circulation figures.
Generous !
some all time finance extremes to close out the week as well, all time record low UST yields, junk bonds yield jumping while investment grade also takes a bit of a bath, VIX term structure in backwardation (as opposed to the normal contango way of things) VIX hits 54 intraday which is highest since 2008... In English that's lots of little explosions throughout various markets.
“It forced mosques in Iran and beyond to halt weekly Muslim prayers. It brought Israeli and Palestinian authorities together to block pilgrims from Jesus' birthplace in Bethlehem. And it upended Japan's plans for the Olympic torch parade.”
I’m thinking Coopers red.
VJ ....shit is getting weird , hey ?
Amazing the crew I see on stock forums saying “ No way will this company be affected !” .
The response from central banks will be interesting. I read something about the CCP firehosing over 3 TRILLION ( !!!!!} ) Yuan into their economy and basically ordering regional banks to not call in loans.
not just little mosques...
https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2972703609446780&id=10000121510127...
anyone care to take a punt on the aussie dollar?
...like for someone making a big arse purchase overseas, the biggest arse-ist purchase of their life, whilst watching the roller coaster ride that is the is the current aussie dollar.er
asking for a friend
...so I won't come looking for you...
I thought it was all over in 2008 Blowin, maybe jumped the gun. Like the finance post many pages ago, maybe it was all over then and we have been in the twilight zone for the last 10 years - and everyone went to work & got paid so it was "normal" too.
Anyway this one will throw it all a curve ball and hopefully destroy the capital misallocations from all the crazy printing, reset prices so young people can afford a house etc. But my gut says printing to infinity, and negative rates - while the physical supply chain implodes. I'm good, I stocked up on enough stuff to interest me for months. Surf is terrible and it's a long weekend (hope these guys didn't have a doc's appt in Toorak in the last week...) - so I'm building a model boat, it's coming on nicely. Quite a bit of scratchbuilding required, which is testing my "skills"
oh yeah, have a look at this UK doctor's opinion, I thought he was quite balanced:
Includes mortality stats which kind of support FR - but also show the danger to older people, and best strategy for immunocompromised
I’m throwing every bit of cash I have into Cunard Cruise lines.
Big future !!
A pity that Cunard will get caught up in it. They are a famous and great company. We got to see the Queen Mary 2 as she left Pt Philip at Queenscliff (massive ship), my grandfather took the second Mauretania from Southampton to New York. This whole industry is getting wrecked.
Blowin this will get ya ticking....
China got it first. China will be the first to be virus free. China's manufacturing and shops will be open for business. The rest of the world will be closed for business. China will supply 'everything' to countries in isolation. China wins again.....
"so young people can afford a house "
Solid chance or wishful thinking?
"while the physical supply chain implodes"
Domestic disruption to demand for goods, availability of labour and also transport?
Saw in the local rag that if you turn up to a certain local doctor complaining of flu-like symptoms, you are to phone ahead, not come into the waiting room and instead remain in your car until further notice.
Also, can't say I'd shed a tear for the cruise ship industry, cruise ships have a terrible impact on lots of places - too many people dumped into towns that are small and socially fragile, helping to remove the last traces of authenticity.
I'd put ten cartons on a bet that this won't drop the cost of housing by a red cent in any of the eastern states cities or surf towns.
Can't imagine what it would take to drop prices to *affordable* levels.
Not much short of the apocalypse I reckon, especially considering that the local median house price in the village is around 930k or maybe 600k closer to the Richmond.
Uncle Leroy...I’m saying no chance.
The CCP may be dazzling the world with their doctored figures or maybe they have slowed the virus down.
But they are currently holding their breath. The vast majority of China’s economic engine - its manufacturing industries which feed global supply chains - are still locked down despite Xi Jinping ORDERING the nation back to work.
But when he finally succeeds and crew are confronted with a choice : face the virus or face persecution, that’s when the rubber hits the road.
Either :
there is huge societal upheaval as people dissent , refuse to return to work and the government gets heavy handed = The economy is fucked
Or
Crew obediently return to work and the virus resumes its spread = The economy is fucked.
Maybe the arrival of spring will slow it down ?
Who knows ? Either way I think that China is going to be behind the 8 ball for a while. People will have lost confidence in eating out etc and their service economy will struggle. Apparently something like 80 percent of Chinese SME’s ( small and medium enterprises) can’t hold out more than 3 months on their reserves of cash . And it’s been 6-7 weeks already.
But ...China can do what it likes because it’s a totalitarian state. Who knows what it's capable of achieving....but at what cost ?
Another thing ....There’d be that many companies who get their shift made in China who will now be realising the folly of their decision to overextend the reliance of their supply to a single country, particularly China. The trade war was already highlighting the urge to GTFO and I can’t see this helping matters ? Can you ?
And if nations haven’t gotten a wake up call on the inherent downsides to unrestrained outsourcing of essential industries after this little episode then we are even further down the rabbit hole than I suspected, but if they do change tact then China will be the biggest loser.
I’ll take that bet , Freeride.
I know that many crew who live week to week . Just getting their mortgage together plus a bit extra. The boom years have them convinced that it’s sustainable to be virtually on the breadline each week yet still bolt to the ments every year.
Factor in the destruction of the Airbnb through plummeting tourist numbers and the fact that lots of investment properties in coastal towns are only viable with this income.
Throw in unemployment from tourism, fishing , construction ( immigration relies on education industry feeder ) , education, .
This snowballs to the service industries....retail, hospitality....taking it in the neck.
Add school closures and quarantines killing domestic tourism demand ( Dad is minding the kids who are home from school and this sucks his holiday leave )
Then there’s the fact that this virus could potentially wipe out lots of baby boomers in a short period of time which will flood the market with their houses.
Students not staying in accommodation, mortgages not getting paid etc etc
The Australian economy was already tottering on a beach ball of casualised employment, underemployment and job insecurity whilst juggling unprecedented household debt.
Let’s face it....home valuations equivalent to decades of income were never sustainable. It’s like the Emperor’s new clothes....people are conditioned to accepting the illusion that a 20 year old house up the coast is worth $750k. I reckon that figure will seem like science fiction in a couple of years. I’ve already seen it with FIFO workers who got used to earning $200K a year suddenly finding themselves back in suburban reality on $70K and realising that the whole thing was a false existence.
There’s so much hinging on this that it’s got to push house prices down from their current unrealistic valuations.
BUT....I haven’t factored in Scomo and his unwavering dedication to real estate. Trump quantifies his success using Wall Street as the metric , so it is with Scomo and house prices.
Who knows what he is capable of in his quest to hold the boot of debt to the throats of Australians ?
Maybe expect 60 year mortgages, helicopter money , an attempt to increase immigration even more....fucked if I know.
"There’d be that many companies who get their shift made in China who will now be realising the folly of their decision to overextend the reliance of their supply to a single country"
Calling all of Australia.....anyone home.....
Begun the TP wars have
https://www.theage.com.au/national/fight-in-sydney-woolworths-as-tension...
OK Pop quiz - will Australia do its own QE* before letting house prices fall?
*I believe they have yet to do it, while other countries have done so. Also, if we go from a USD 65c handle down to 50 or so, those houses fell in value even though they are still 900K AUD
Ive walked along the Great Wall, the tour guide will tell you that every few paces there is at least one body sunken below you in the concrete. Its their price of getting things done. Just another number sunk into the cement. Just during the Ming years it was 6,000 k's long.. I don't think the Chinese leaders have changed much in all that time.
we're in full blown conspiracy land now...
haven't read it all, a bit busy at the mo. but check this shit out. not saying it's true, it's all a bit much really, but certainly 'interesting stuff'
Going right off the deep end there Syppo.
I remember when my mate got hooked on ice and I saw his first full blown drug psychosis. He spent an hour explaining to me all the intricacies of the Middle East.
Crazy is interesting, no doubt.
Blows me away that older crew still trip out on mushrooms/ acid.
Scary shit. I’d love a reset though and I remember the crazy feeling of subdued mellow post - trip.
So anyone know what would happen if you were hurt o/s covered by insurance but caught corona virus in hospital.....would they still cover you...?
Ironically if the aggressive "unnecessary" containment works then coming out the other side the story will be that the aggressive containment was unnecessary.
Simba answer is no not for corona but yes for the injury.
"There’d be that many companies who get their shift made in China who will now be realising the folly of their decision to overextend the reliance of their supply to a single country"
I do have to agree on that Blowin, this was always dangerous.
We should be spreading our eggs out over all countries in Asia that are competitive.
Even Indonesia did this after we fucked them over with live beef exports, they then went and diversified where they get beef from so if it happens again it doesn't hurt so much.
100% we are too reliant on China.
BTW. Don't go thinking i was calling you racist, i know it's China you don't like rather than its people so much.
"Ironically if the aggressive "unnecessary" containment works then coming out the other side the story will be that the aggressive containment was unnecessary."
True. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
Better to go too hard and have people bellyaching then dead bodies piled up though.
Here you go FR............Blowin don't spend that carton money yet.......
Coronavirus: South Korea’s aggressive testing gives clues to true fatality rate
With 140,000 people tested, the country’s mortality rate is just over 0.6 per cent compared to the 3.4 per cent global average reported by the WHO
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3065187/corona...
Qldurr tbb went to Doctors at Robina last Tuesday...(Not Hospital)
[ ALERT- STOP ] >>> xX///^\\\ [CORONAVIRUS ISOLATION UNIT] ///^\\\Xx
Tarmac Tent is decked out with Coveralls+ Mask + Gloves + (Lucky draw Barrel)
tbb asked for Brochure or instruction...Nope! Sorry! Just do the Shock Horror Props!
US supplies OZ Vaccines...we get whatever the give us...( We die in a Pandemic)
Vic Comp makes up to 1 million vaccines / year
Oz plays catch up running short of increased Vaccines every year of recent times.
These health stories show Oz Health is ill prepared to curb any virus outbreak
Notice the increase of an extra 3.8 million Flu Vaccines in just 2 years (That's scary!)
Also tracks the Fear Factor rising to fever pitch that fuelled The Bog Roll Wars.
2010- Infamous (Bad Batch) Child Shots that gave Rise to Anti Vaxers.
Hinterland Anti Vaxers can rarely visit Hospitals so form alt health groups.
Hinterland Men rarely visit hospitals resulting in poorer health...Man Up!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-11-23/the-fallout-from-a-batch-of-flu-v...
2017 (8.3 million Vaccines ordered)
Shortage leads to Cheap Flu Vaccine responsible for record deaths?
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/utterly-false-chief-medical-officer-refutes-...
2018 (11 million Vaccines ordered)
Flu Vaccine Shortage ( Health Officials Raid GP Clinic's Fridges )
https://www.diabetesqld.org.au/media-centre/2018/june/health-officials-r...
2018 National Shortage of Flu Vaccine
https://www.gladstoneobserver.com.au/news/pharmacies-run-out-of-flu-jab-...
2019 (12.1m Vaccine Orders) 7.5m Programs + 4.6m Private / Chems
May Govt Campaigns + Chemist Rollouts lead to Vaccine Shortage
May 2019 Qld AMA warns of Fed Govt Measles Vaccine supply constraints
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-10/measles-vaccine-shortage-prompts-...
https://ama.com.au/gp-network-news/measles-vaccine-shortage
Dec 2019 ... Qld 71 cases of Measles recorded in the first week of December!
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/science-isn-t-enoug...
My Health will stop the Pandemic.
Govt found a $Gazillion to sell off Your Health Records
https://www.smh.com.au/national/no-one-would-know-about-my-cancer-doctor...
More Aussies have opted out than accessed their records
Only 4% have infiltrated Dutto's X Files more than once (91% don't trust spies!)
Word is that GP / Doctors refuse to be unpaid Clerks...{R.I.P} My Health.
Almost all doctors & Patients turn backs on Govt Spy Health
Hordes fighting over dwindling Vaccines fearing Plagues of venomous Anti Vaxers.
Sounds like a Health Crisis...Looks like a Health Crisis...It's a Health Crisis! (Panic!)
Dr Scomo:
"We decide which Pandemic virus corrupts our... I mean 'Your' Health Records!"
[Tap! Whisper]
'Oh right! Is that so!'
"Experts have now informed that you can catch the Virus from your computer!"
"As I've always said! No one gets a Go or Gets to Go Anywhere!"
"Just to be clear...The PM doesn't wish to shake your hand either!" We all good!
Saturday afternoon reasonable suggestions and ideas Take #1
https://unherd.com/2020/03/its-time-liberals-embraced-economic-nationalism/
Interesting interview with James McCaw, professor in mathematical biology and epidemiology at the University of Melbourne on ABC health report.
suggesting infectiousness may be not as bad as first thought either.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/containing-co...
Which would explain the Taiwan anomaly.
Yep, the three questions on everbody's lips at my workplace:
1. How bad will the virus get
2. Why the fuq don't we have our own manufacturing industry
3. Why are there two trans-sexuals in an ad for our place. Simple change of target demographic?
1. No idea
2. Because our wages and every other overhead for manufacturing is way way too high compared to Asia
3. Because its 2020
2. because we don't support or protect it. Everyone else has varying ways to support their industries
3. What is this 'our place' you talk of? Is it an Oz tourism ad?
"3. What is this 'our place' you talk of? Is it an Oz tourism ad?"
....please tell me no...
I don't mind a good tranny, they make the world more interesting
but please tell me no
Not being from Sydney I am assuming West Ryde is more desirable than Lakemba? How is this a good result?
https://www.domain.com.au/news/investor-make-415000-on-west-ryde-house-i...
Good because they sold, took the money and ran? Sure beats 30years paying off 800K with a 45K income. Beats the box jellyfish, too.
Hmmm, would you rather buy a house in a viral outbreak, or step on a cobbler?
http://www.fish.wa.gov.au/Documents/recreational_fishing/fact_sheets/fac...
It's a small town hospitality place, very old school, very conservative.
I'm pro-gay, pro-trans, I just thought it was a weird image to use.
But when you're standing in the lift, looking at that poster, it sure draws the conversation away from viruses and toilet paper.
The guy at the back's got cute hair, no?
I'll go with Indo's answer then, 3) - it's 2020.
Some great trader talk in this article, as a market maker blows up:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/someone-big-was-utterly-blown-fk-out-h...
Ideally they manage their deltas and gammas, until something like this happens. Bell curves with fat tails, and all that.
"Which would explain the Taiwan anomaly."
On the surface it looks like Taiwan acted early
Why Taiwan Has Just 42 Coronavirus Cases while Neighbors Report Hundreds or Thousands
https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/why-taiwan-h...
Taiwan reins in spread of coronavirus as other countries stumble
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/taiwan-reins-spread-coronavirus-c...
How Taiwan Used Big Data, Transparency and a Central Command to Protect Its People from Coronavirus
https://healthpolicy.fsi.stanford.edu/news/how-taiwan-used-big-data-tran...
I seriously wonder if they do these things on purpose to get people talking.
If it was 3 women that looked like women, we wouldn't even be talking about some poster i never knew existed.
Personally i only think it's the person on the left that looks like a man with make up.
The bigger question is it's 2020 so why are they all white?
On second thought i guess it would be controversial if one of them was not white especially if Asian there would probably be some controversy around it because people might think she is Chinese and those who produced the poster would be critiqued for creating stereo types, so i guess making them all white with light hair makes sense, it ensures there is no big media or social media backlash on the Chinese aspect..
And no-one could say that the women is an Chinese man who is now a blonde women because, Asian men pull off the whole male to female thing 100 times better than europeans, so even if it was the case we would most likely not notice..
BTW. apologies to people in pic incase they are reading for assuming their genders.
You really have turned a corner Indo.
If you ever needed the perfect example of how detached from reality Australia’s real estate market has become then just check that little house at West Ryde .
Sold for $1715000.
Over a thirty year mortgage the principal is worth $1100/wk
Add interest of 2.5 percent another $825/wk
Add rates , insurance etc $100/wk.
Without tax depreciation it cost $2025/wk to own .
The rent on an equivalent place is worth max $600/wk. probably more $450.
I think that’s what’s known as a Ponzi scheme aka financial musical chairs.
Morning Blowin...Just like I buy Norco milk to support the Co-op, I'm happy to pay more for something manufactured in Australia. Looks like we need to re open our steel plants and also get another fuel refinery open again. Generate electricity from the steel works as well. Run all our road freight on clean burning LNG. Solar panels is a good one to make here, lots of jobs and a better product. My family made the first Bonds towels in Australia so why not do textiles again. We don't need lots of big companies, just a few for infrastructure and the rest can be covered by more local cottage industries as is already happening. We've got all the food so that's all good. I'm in, lets forget the riches and be self sufficient and just sell our leftovers overseas. All the greedy people who want millions will pack up and leave too. Hit the reset button on land prices for first home buyers and build modest homes. It IS the future so why not start now.......From the Bible..
“Where there is no vision, people cast off restraint; but blessed is the one who heeds wisdom's instruction.”
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
How's the absolute fucking crap on this thread?!
The 2GB talkback demographic project is complete!
Caroma-virus.
Yeah, nah.
Anyway, speaking for a long time listener, first time caller, bog roll...Substitute ideas?
I was thinking Weekend Australian or Sunday Times. Or any East coast equivalents.
But then they're only soft on right-wing arseholes.
What about the bible? Rice paper, ain't it? Quran, same same?
Hang on, Chinese virus, yellow pages! Get it, get it?
Yeah, nah.
How many of you blokes are on to the adult nappies?
Seems like a win win?
Surely a bum gun for the Asianised blokes on here?
So many ideas, so little time...
Just in case you’re wondering why Facto sticks exclusively to insults and ad hominem
"Good because they sold, took the money and ran?"
Now they can be debt free in Dapto
Here’s a little wake up call for Scomo from a microbiologist
https://macroedgo.com/coronavirus-outbreak/open-letter-to-pm-scott-morri...
Keep those tourists and students coming Scomo !
Have it cunts