Interesting stuff
I’m trying to dodge the ten carton bet as it’s a bit of a lose / lose situation for myself.
If I lose I’ve got to pay out hundreds of dollars worth of piss. If I win I’ll be hungover for a fortnight.....and I’m not joking. 120 longnecks of Coopers Red sitting at my place would be the carbonated equivalent of a mermaid song drawing the good ship Blowin towards the widow’s spire on a dark and stormy night.
Plus the fact that there’s no accounting for the depths Scomo will sink in order to prop up his signature real estate Ponzi. Immigration to the moon !
Don’t think anything he can do will help though....it’s a goner.
Anyway , the ten cartons was for a house prices drop in coastal towns and the other carton was for Coronavirus infections to eclipse the volume from the recent worst flu year ....over 220k cases or something. That shit will drag on for 18 months yet. It’s a slow burn snail race.
The initial 6 pack was predicated on Freeride’s belief that Coronavirus would be out of the media and forgotten by now - which I’ve forsaken collection of in a mighty gesture which is probably more reflective of logistical realities than any magnanimity on my part.
Snapshot of daily life after taking delivery of ten cartons
FFS
After literally doing everything within his power to artificially elevate the house prices which have relegated most Australians to a life of debt-induced indentured servitude , Scomo is now fingering the same victimised populace in his search for blame on the tanking economy. To wit :
“"The economy just isn't made up of the government. It's made up of businesses. It's made up of households. It's made up of everybody," he said.
Mr Morrison said many Australians were ahead on their mortgage repayments, business balance sheets were in a strong position while the states were also "able to do what we need to do over the course of this virus crisis to strengthen and see the Australian economy through".
"It will require, I think, using those balance sheets that you've built for such a time as this, to ensure that Australia emerges stronger," he said.“
57 cases in Oz on the 5/3/20
99 cases on 10/3/20
*confirmed cases
Not quite double, but not far off
From Ian Rogers at Banking Day :
“The pandemic is a function of the financial system, and the Australian recession of 2020 and 2021 will be a self-inflicted blow on banks.
For CBA, NAB and the lot of them, credit losses will be the worst since the recession of 30 years ago. They may exceed that.
Even before financial capitalism, banks and the credit system exaggerated shocks into crises. The global virus pandemic unfolding fast will be centred in the southern hemisphere by mid-winter, and credit quality will tank.
By the time banks close off at their financial year end in September 2020, the worldwide coronavirus crisis will have decidedly Australian characteristics.
Much routine trade and commerce will be diminished or suspended.
Any supply-side recovery on the part of China, Australia’s premier trading partner is now noise. This is a demand-driven recession linked to confidence, one that punctures 50 years of misguided business culture that’s prepared the country poorly for strife.
There is little work in freight forwarding.
New car sales are cratering and dealerships will close in droves.
The latest retail sales numbers, which stand at negative 3 per cent, and yesterday’s oil price crash are mere predictors of the deep recession ahead.
Asset quality is fading fast now and even in consumer credit, mortgage flows are easing. There can be little confidence in the level of housing prices.
Banks are bracing for an avalanche of negative equity and mortgage arrears at a level unknown in the modern era.
Each and every bank is throttling credit supply and customers, business borrowers above all, will need a relationship if they are to access finance.
Things have taken their time but the business cycle has shifted and this phase runs rough and fast.
The fintech and neobank fad has crossed from deluded self-confidence and inexplicable optimism to dread realisation.
The capital market and banks are brutal during a downturn, with monetary policy largely made in the private sector during this period.
Fintechs, already floundering, will be decimated. Maybe 100 will survive.
Financing channels are shutting down to the domain of fintechs and the neobanks.
Australia’s biggest banks are in the lead, the policy practically a blanket-ban and the credit taps won’t easily be turned back on for thinly-capitalised enterprises of any ilk.”
House prices to the moon !!!*
* Said no one with half an eye on reality.
"This is a demand-driven recession linked to confidence,"
way, way too early to make that call.
and there's been so much excess demand, so much fat on the bone there'll be a ways to go before people start defaulting, at zero interest rates.
Freeride....how many weeks can your family exist on zero hours/ severely reduced hours income before shit hits the fan *?
Now you can take that figure and extrapolate it across the entire economy because 90 percent of people are in the same situation. That’s how much “ fat is on the bone “ amongst our debt Ponzi economy.
* Don’t literally want to know the answer to this.
Confidence at this stage of the cycle is a candle in the wind .
I guess we'll see how employment holds up.
and how much confidence Scomo can inject with his stimulus.
driving around the northern rivers this morning doing a bread run and it was full steam ahead everywhere. Zero sign of economic impact.
Blowin you have been a joy to read as off late.
"dandified fuckstik" spat food over the screen reading this.
"Confidence at this stage of the cycle is a candle in the wind"
Truth is no one has a handle on the virus out come world wide or country to country.
Will Australia be like Taiwan or Italy?
Will there be a 2nd round of infections?
Will this just bubble on for a year or more?
Markets hate uncertainty not only is the virus uncertain and largely unknown but so its the economic implications.
That's all before any black swans may appear due to the disruption, note confidence is what holds governance, communities and monetary transactions together.
My point is what is know is that there is a disruption due to the virus and economic activity the extent isn't known, where it gets messy is the secondary effects currently unknown that will appear.
I pulled the trigger on a parcel of shares last night , betting the market would drop (further) then rebound on stimulus measures.
which is what happened.
ready with liquidity to jump in further.
I doubt we will bump along the bottom for long once governments start pumping money in.
Governments pumping money in.....
Stu put this up the other day .....
Slater fucking giving it some.
Anyone got the internet location of the footage of Curren winning the final against Potts , Carroll and García ( or maybe Kong ) in Haleiwa years ago?
Here the government wants to throw money at parents who've been inconvenienced having their kids have to stay at home. What about all the low income/casual workers that have been laid off or had their hours cut back indefinitely? They could use a little help too.
I'm eligible for a zero interest loan to borrow the money i'm losing from my business through no fault of my own.
Why on earth would I want to borrow money and pay back what i'd lost in the first place? Doesn't make sense to me.
Fear doesn't help anyone or anything. Spreading it is worse. Just wait it out the best you can or we become like toilet paper hoarders.
Zen do you mind me asking which (broad) line of business you are in?
no details, just broad category.
There is lot more than just CV at play here. The whole south coast is struggling. 7 businesses in Merimbula have closed since the bushfires, or going to close soon and another 20 have indicated they may struggle to survive 12 months. That's taken from a meeting of the local chamber of commerce members held recently, to gauge what impact the town was feeling. Its massive for a small town where employment is limited. Many spots on the whole south coast are feeling it.
In regards to the houses, the first thing to go from the wealthy when a recession is bearing down are holiday homes and boats. unfortunately its a perfect shit storm for our economy.
No worries Free, all good. I own a little company (grand total 6 employees) and we're ironically in the education business. We teach English conversation, business English at companies and we help students pass their uni entrance exams. We also do translation work and video subtitles.
Don’t be so modest, Zen.
I hear you’re big in Japan .
Haha.
That's one of mine- i take pride great in work mine purple sky haze find your happy peach.
Turnover nears $9 billion today
Turnover on the ASX is nearing $9 billion today as buyers take advantage of the sudden discounts in equity prices. The S&P/ASX 200 is up 1.1 per cent at 5825, compared to a -3.8 per cent decline to 5538.9 points.
Turnover did get up to $13 billion for the ASX 200 on Monday as the index fell by 7.3 per cent.
"When we first came in this morning we were expecting the market to be down sharply on the back of the US market. Subsequent to that, we did see the Dow futures turn positive,'' senior investment advisor at Shaw and Partners, Craig Sidney said.
Australian equities have been surprisingly resilient today, he said. Monday's sharp fall forced some selling and 'capitulation' as margin loans and derivatives hit their limits as some people were caught out by the size of the fall.
Talk in the past few hours about stimulus packages, and a small rebound in oil prices, is supporting markets that are currently open. The Hang Seng is up 1.8 per cent, China's CSI300 is up 1 per cent, and Japan's Nikkei has swung from being -4.1 per cent down to -0.5 per cent down.
the useful idiots are at it again...
feeling all 'problematic'
...and doing the dirty work of the ccp...
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/calling-coronavirus-wuhan-vir...
Very early yet FR.
First leg down always bring out the value investors or the FOMO mob.
2nd leg down brings disbelief for those that bought in the 1st leg down.
3rd leg down or abouts brings capitulation and that's the buy signal.
Will that play out, no idea but gut feelings suspect it will.
Say market fall equals 15 to 20% for recession, throw in 5 to 10% for supply / demand shock / another 5 to 10% for lack of confidence etc.
That's before black swans arrive
Some of the above will be merged into each other.
Another factor is I get the feeling Morrison government think they are 1/2 smart lots of language around targeted, not wasting money, not over spending etc all political dog whistles about the GFC and Labor's response and nothing aggressive about stimulus quite the opposite.
I just get the feeling they will screw it up......hoping I am wrong.
What is a Dead Cat Bounce?
A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery of asset prices from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by the continuation of the downtrend. A dead cat bounce is a small, short-lived recovery in the price of a declining security, such as a stock. Frequently, downtrends are interrupted by brief periods of recovery — or small rallies — where prices temporarily rise. The name "dead cat bounce" is based on the notion that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough.
yeah, except we haven't had a prolonged decline, quite the opposite.
we'll see what happens when Trump starts up the money spigots.
bizarrely he might be just the guy to have at the wheel. not scared to deficit spend Chinese money.
Is Matt Banting going to be top 10 WQS leaving the OZ leg again ?
Bastard could have a good life if he gave up his WCT dream. Just smash the Oz QS leg then take the cash and surf his brains out around the world. Let his East coast beachie skillz pay for a full year of freedom chasing the best waves on the planet whilst he is in his surfing prime.
Unfortunately, that same competitive drive which sees him owning the Oz leg has him wasting the prizemoney surfing the globe’s shittiest QS beachie locations for the next 11 months.
Huey giveth and Huey taketh away.
Ironically enough , if he took his Oz QS money and went full flat- out barrel hound for a year , his surfing would probably evolve to true WCT maturity. Get some meatier boards and come back like a fucken mad cunt , scar covered Max Rockatansky reef warrior . Marry his short period beachie talent to some mean , hollow wave , Irons Bros style dominance and watch the feathers fly when he owns the Hawaiian season ending events without breaking into a sweat.
it seems bernie can win the nomination easily...
but will he do it?
can he do it?
can he bring himself to do it?
c'mon bernie, time to step up, biden is so compromised and shitty you've gotta do it..
the hunted needs to be the hunter, ...of hunter....
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/03/09/time-debate-how-bernie-cou...
totally agree on Banting.
he crushes 2ft east coast beach break but looks lost in proper waves.
that ain't a CT skill set.
Zen thank you for gifts in that you bring forward to translation English greatness!
The rest of you: go find an XJO chart that goes back 12 to 15 years, join the support line on the lows, where are we now?
Bit off topic but interesting.
There was a guy on the radio discussing implications of crashing oil prices on gas projects which are now likely to be postponed. He then mentioned that there had been several east coast locations looking at being developed by overseas companies for gas import facilities.... despite Australia being the world’s second largest gas exporter!!
We ended up in this ludicrous situation by the gas companies screwing the government over and selling gas overseas cheaper than it can be sold here.
I don’t know how any government can adequately manage a complex pandemic when they can’t sort out basic necessities like energy.
Turns out this story is old news but I was still gobsmacked.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/when-insanity-makes-sense-au...
Just think of this when you’re reading about how 1000 Italians from the viral epicentre were granted exemptions to fly into Australia and be the centre of a car race attracting hundreds of thousands of people.
https://apple.news/A99rkv7e1QGqJ5MHpKqHUdg
Our government knows full well what we are facing and they
Do
Not
Give
A
Fuck
Big events starting to be called off now..
Dark Mofo in Tassie, and David Walsh was very honest about the scenario.
"Right now, the government and Mona are each on the hook for $2 million to run Dark Mofo. That’s bad. What’s worse, as far as I’m concerned, is that if we ran Dark and nobody came, I’d lose $5 million or more, because I would have to cover the absent ticket revenue. Leigh Carmichael, Dark Mofo’s boss, suggested an $8 million scenario: if a staff member contracted COVID-19 a week out from the festival, we’d have to cancel because the staff would need to self-isolate for two weeks, but we’d also have to pay all the artists. That kind of blowout would affect Mona’s program, and I’d be back to subsisting on the diet I had when I was eighteen – pineapples and mint slice biscuits."
SXSW cancelled, and more to come..
Drop Festival and Corona Open in 2 weeks time.
no sign of nerves there from organisers.
Talk of Spendour in the Grass being cancelled.
Coachella on the chopping block, with talk of Splendor being cancelled too. Some residents might like that news...
Kinda hard to see the Woz cancelling the CT events, at least in the first half of the season, because the aforementioned music events rely on big crowds while the Woz just needs a webcast. If they pull down the grandstands, limit access, they'll take a hit, no doubt about it, as merch and stallholder rent is lucrative, but the show will go on.
Also, it's not till Brazil that there's consecutive events in different countries with less than 14 days between them. Avoiding large gatherings is one thing, but if surfers got caught by sudden quarantine arrangements the tour would suddenly become very hard to manage. It's only a slim chance that'd happen, and Brazil is an unlikely country to enforce it.
In September there's a one week gap between Tahiti and Lemoore, however that's six months away so who can say what will be happening then.
Beachgrit is officially done.
I heard Grajagan Bay has a severe outbreak of Corona V.
Cancellation coming soon fingers crossed
It’s common in Australian media these days to refer to a need for truth telling.
Not sure this is what they mean but here’s some truth :
( no paywall )
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/03/china-saves-its-people-as-democ...
"The problem is, of course, that by doing so you will spread the virus much faster, ensuring that the hospital system is overwhelmed and, as such, many more elderly than need to will die. Probably you’re own loved ones."
Yeah, "probably".
They serious...?
SCU campuses closed.
Yeah , that’s a bit off base ....but the elderly who die unnecessarily are all going to be someone’s loved ones.
Anyway , apart from the semantics, do you agree with the piece or not ?
Or are you of the opinion that your parents/ partner / friends had a good life but they’ve had their time and we’ve got to keep this hollow Ponzi scheme economy going because the ( inevitable) conclusion might not be pretty ? So if they are the price to be paid for the stagnating wages , casualised and insecure job market, unfeasibly high house prices , destroyed natural environment and plunging quality of life which is the outcome of our Ponzi economy then so be it....just more grist for the mill .
that should be your, not you're.
Bit feverish, that article.
SCU campuses closed, looks like just for the day Andy? or longer?
Here’s a companion piece for you Freeride.
Just a flu bro !
“A glimpse inside northen Italy hospitals:
Jason Van Schoor @jasonvanschoor Registrar in Anaesthesia & ICM | NIHR UCL Academic Clinical Fellow
From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:
1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.
2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.
3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity
4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.
6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panic
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great
9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.
10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,
11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.
12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.
13/ We have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare.“
Italy is bad. Iran is bad.
South Korea and Taiwan were/are not.
Should Govt be doing more, yeah, probably.
Am I taking precautions? mildly. I'm not a crowd guy or living in a big city.
The worst bit is that our government KNOWS what is coming but they are still daring to mention the word “economy “ in the same breath.
Culpable, all of them .
Our treasurer is on TV constantly saying that he is acting on the medical advice - blame shifting- yet he never mentions that the medical advice has been compromised through is politicisation. He gets the medical advice he wants or he finds different advice.
WTF is going on when our Chief Medical Officer is basically saying that border shutdowns are too expensive to justify ? What is he doing even considering the economics of border controls ? He is meant to say “ This is the way to ensure the best outcome for the health of the nation ...” but in neoliberal Australia EVERYTHING is viewed through a monetary lens.
Fucking criminal.
RE Macrobusiness article.
I think there are large gaps that haven't been filled, and probably can't be filled in a two-minute read largely poached from somewhere else.
Sure, China is a Totalitarian govt and can force its residents into quarantine and stifle the virus. Do MB, and it's readers, aspire to those values? The answer is no of course.
So how do they expect it to happen?
The only countries in a position to reshore - if they ever lost them - their manufacturing base, or to renationalise - if they ever sold them - essential industries are Scandanavian countries with a history of democratic socialism.
That's because the govts there can apply planned economies as in those countries there's a collective sense of national wellbeing - a long history of being in it together that encompasses the nation, including the various govt parties who view collectivity as beyond party politics.
Meanwhile, America is tearing itself apart and Australia is following suit. I've let my feelings on LIbertarianism be known many times, no need to repeat them, but MB seems like a classic outlet for it. Full of hot air and no real answers.
Hilarious that Onselen worked with Costello through the mining boom, drafted free trade agreements with APEC, and now spruiks himself as some economic saviour.
About all you need to know really.
He's the Andrew Bolt of economics. A conscience-free charlatan looking for an opportunity, any opportunity.
The "world surf league" rated a mention on ABC radio yesterday in relation to sporting events being cancelled across the board.
Please , Stu....don’t go down the Facto ad hominem route . It’s beneath you.
He suggests solutions daily.
If you think that a return to true social democracy is even remotely libertarianism then you are deluded. And that’s all he suggests.
Nah...he doesn't. He suggests things that sound good to some people.
And this is pure garbage :
“The only countries in a position to reshore - if they ever lost them - their manufacturing base, or to renationalise - if they ever sold them - essential industries are Scandanavian countries with a history of democratic socialism.
That's because the govts there can apply planned economies as in those countries there's a collective sense of national wellbeing - a long history of being in it together that encompasses the nation, including the various govt parties who view collectivity as beyond party politics.“
It’s like you woke up this morning and assumed that Australia had always existed as it does now.
Could result in someone who wins or does well in first event or 2 ending up being the world champ like when Hobgood won the title by default after the Americans refused to travel after sept 11.
Have it cunts