Moderate swell pulses continue with tricky winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday January 29th)

Best Days: Tomorrow ahead of sea breezes, Wednesday and Thursday mornings

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Reinforcing moderate sized, mid-period SW swell for tomorrow PM, easing from a similar sized Wed AM
  • Fresh SE tending E/SE winds tomorrow ahead of strong sea breezes, moderate S/SE tending strong S/SW-SW winds Wed
  • Small-mod sized, reinforcing swell Thu with S/SE-SE tending strong S/SW-SW winds
  • Smaller Fri with early S/SE tending SW winds
  • Mix of mid-period SW swell Sat with building S/SW groundswell into the PM
  • Strong S/SE winds Sat and Sun AM

Recap

Fun surf across the South West on Saturday morning with an easing 3-4ft of swell but with great conditions. Perth and Mandurah were tiny.

Yesterday was a lay day across all locations with smaller surf and less favourable winds.

Today some new mid-period SW swell has filled in with a lift in size to 4-5ft across the South West, 1-2ft in Mandurah and 1-1.5ft across Perth with better, cross-offshore winds.

This week and weekend (Jan 30 – Feb 4)

Today's bump in mid-period SW swell is due to be followed by a secondary pulse of better swell tomorrow, generated by back to back fetches of strong W/SW winds through our south-western swell window over the weekend and today.

The secondary pulse should fill in during the day tomorrow, peaking into the afternoon to 5-6ft in the South West, 1-2ft across Perth and Mandurah, easing back from a similar size Wednesday morning.

Conditions look good and improving tomorrow with a fresh SE tending E/SE breeze ahead of strong afternoon S/SW-SW winds.

Wednesday looks a little less favourable with weaker S/SE-SE winds, shifting strong S/SW-SW earlier rather than later.

Similar winds are due into Thursday but with smaller surf, though the easing trend will be slowed by a small-moderate sized reinforcing mid-period SW swell generated by a strengthening front pushing in tomorrow to our south-west.

Friday looks to be a lay day with smaller surf and early S/SE winds that will quickly strengthen from the S/SW.

Into the weekend we've got a mix of mid-period SW swell and S/SW groundswell due Saturday, with the former generated by a broad but short-lived fetch of W/SW winds, north-east of the Heard Island region tomorrow.

The tricky, S/SW groundswell will be produced as the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek drifts south-east through the Indian Ocean, combining with a cold air injection on Thursday resulting in the rapid intensification of the low.

The low looks to deepen late in our swell window, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds only just generating a small spike of swell for Saturday afternoon.

Size wise, the mid-period energy looks to come in at 4-5ft+ across the South West, 1-1.5ft to the north on Saturday with the S/SW groundswell not likely to get above that. The southern coast should see larger surf though.

Unfortunately winds look unfavourable for this swell as strong S/SE-S/SW winds kick in on Saturday, a touch weaker but still S/SE into Sunday with easing surf.

Into next week, the swell will ease as winds improve Monday/Tuesday though we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.