Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building S'ly windswell Tues, but with accompanying S'ly winds
• Surfable S swells WED AM with better quality longer period swells in the PM with winds easing
• Leftover S swells Thurs AM with light winds freshening from the N during the day
• Building S'ly windswell Friday
• Mod/fresh S’ly winds Sat, easing during Sun
• Mix of S swells Sat, mostly wind affected with better quality S swell Sun as winds ease
• Small S swells to start next week
• Long period S groundswell expected Tues/Wed next week - check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Widespread good to great surf over the weekend with Sat seeing 4-5ft across most of the region with a few 6ft sets at more open coastlines under improving NW-W winds. Still very fun waves Sun on an easing swell with 3-4ft of surf brushed by offshore winds. The easing trend continued overnight and this morning has beautiful conditions with offshore winds but only a few small leftovers in the 1-2ft range. 

Pumping for the dawny on Sat

This week (Oct7-11)

We’ve currently got a cold front linked to a compact parent low moving across and SE of Tasmania with high pressure tracking through the bight towards Victoria. That will bring a robust S’ly change tomorrow and some workable S swell for temperate NSW, with a trough in the sub-tropics tilting the change more S/SE-SE later tomorrow into Wed. That will be the main swell source this week with another trough, then front of similar strength arriving late this week or Sat and bringing some S’ly windswell Fri before another pulse of S swell over the weekend.

In the short run the S’ly change looks to be in well before dawn across the region so conditions will be blown out for the most part. We’ll see some small S’ly windswell develop after lunch to 3ft at exposed breaks for the very keen with some micro surf on offer at sheltered spots. 

A weak ridge following the change leaves an easing S/SE flow Wed, with winds clocking around light E/SE-E’ly in the a’noon. No great quality on offer but we’ll see a small blend of short and mid period S swells to 2-3ft across open beaches in the morning with a better quality (longer period) S pulse to 3-4ft in the a’noon generated by an intensification in the fetch in the south-eastern Tasman . Winds tending more NE in the a’noon south of Jervis Bay may offer up a few small opportunities at S facing beaches on the South Coast. 

N’ly winds start to freshen Thurs as another trough and front approach from the W. Should be some clean leftovers to 3-4ft at S facing beaches for the early, before an easing trend and N’ly winds freshen through the day, reaching moderate paces in the a’noon. We mat see some minor NE windswell develop later in the a’noon. A S’ly change should push through the region after dark.

Not much to recommend for Fri as a S’ly change generated by a trough and deeper front bring mod/fresh S’lies which should lay down a notch in the a’noon and swing more S/SE-SE. Minor S’ly windswell may reach 2-3ft in the a’noon but with poor quality.

This weekend (Oct 12-13)

Plenty of S’ly wind is expected for Sat as a high pressure ridge builds in behind the trough/front. With fresh S’lies on hand open beaches will be a mess as new S swell builds to 4-5ft (bigger 5-6ft on the Hunter). Most of that size will be shaven off as short period swells fail to wrap into more protected locations so keep expectations pegged low for Sat. 

No great improvement in quality is expected for Sun as the S’ly flow lingers but we will see windspeeds ease off through the day as the high pressure ridge moves northwards. It is possible that high pressure could move quickly NE into the Tasman offering up a N-NE flow in the a’noon (favouring S facing beaches) so stay tuned for updates through the week. S swells in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches will improve in quality as wavelength draws out. 

Next week (Oct 14 onwards)

Nothing major on the radar next week at least as far as our near swell window is concerned. A polar low passing through the Southern ocean late next weekend (see below) looks to send some long period S swell up the pipe early next week. Models are still divergent over the strength of the low so expect some revisions but for now, we’ll pencil in some 3 occ. 4ft surf from the S arriving Tues and extending into Wed before easing.

Monday should see some fun leftover S-S/SE swell to 2-3ft with light winds tending N’ly in the a’noon.

We may see N’lies continue into Tues Wed but there’s low confidence in the wind outlook due to lingering troughiness in the Tasman. 

We’ll see how that is shaping up when we come back on Wed.

Seeya then.