South Australian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 31st)

Best Days: South Coast tomorrow morning, Sunday morning, Monday, Tuesday morning, Mid Coast Thursday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small-moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell for tomorrow AM with a slightly better mid-period swell for the PM, easing Sun
• Light E/NE-NE tending fresh S/SE winds tomorrow
• Variable Sun AM, mod-fresh from the S/SW into the PM
• Small to mod sized S/SW groundswell Mon with variable winds ahead of weak sea breezes
• Easing swell Tue with N/NW winds ahead of a strong S/SW change early PM
• Strong S-S/SE winds Wed
• Moderate + sized mix of W/SW swells buiding later Wed, peaking Thu with gusty S/SE-SE winds (S/SW for a period on the Mid during the day)

Recap

The Mid Coast continued to offer a bit more size than expected yesterday with 1.5ft waves on the dropping tide, pulsing to 1-2ft through the afternoon with a bit of bumpy. Today the swell has finally dropped to a tiny 0.5-1ft.

The South Coast started poor yesterday but improved as local winds shifted E/NE for a period with plenty of swell holding in the 3ft+ range.

This morning is a little smaller and lumpy/peaky again with E/NE winds and 2-3ft of swell.

This week and weekend (Feb 1 - 7)

The coming few days look fun for the South Coast, but the weekend might be a little mixed thanks to no true offshore wind due.

A light E/NE-NE breeze will create generally clean but lumpy/peaky conditions tomorrow morning along with a new, inconsistent SW groundswell, generated by a small, tight but strong polar low that was in the Heard Island region earlier this week.

Inconsistent 2ft+ sets are due off Middleton with tiny waves inside the gulf, while into the afternoon a slightly bigger mid-period SW swell is due.

This swell was generated by a relatively weak but elongated frontal system moving in under the country the last two days with the swell due to build to 3ft on the sets across Middleton through the day (1ft+ inside the gulf). 

Sea breezes will create average conditions as the swell builds tomorrow with Sunday coming in better with easing 2-3ft sets off Middleton, 1ft+ across the Mid Coast under variable N’ly winds ahead of sea breezes, tending S/SW-SW and freshening later.

Into Monday, our new pulse of S/SW groundswell with favourable winds has been upgraded a touch, with a tight, south-east tracking low due to generate a short-lived burst of gale to severe-galeforce W’ly winds.

This low will be late in our swell window but we should 3ft sets across Middleton, with no size across the Mid Coast, easing Tuesday from 2ft+ down South.

Winds on Monday look variable again, tending light, local offshore ahead of sea breezes, with Tuesday seeing N/NW winds ahead of a S’ly change early afternoon.

Make the most of these windows as once S’ly winds kick in the rest of the week looks a no go with strong S’ly winds due Wednesday, a touch weaker Thursday and then stronger back into Friday.

The Mid Coast will see a bit of swell into late Wednesday afternoon/Thursday, generated by  a strong, healthy low that formed south of South Africa mid-week, with it generating a great fetch of W’ly gales in our far swell window. 

The low will weaken while projecting towards Western Australia on the weekend, but continue to maintain a broad fetch of strong W/SW winds through our western swell window.

One final projection of W/SW winds under the country towards us early next week should boost the consistency a little, with a moderate + sized mix of mid-period and groundswell due to build later Wednesday but peak Thursday.

The Mid Coast should offer good 2ft sets Thursday with Middleton coming in around 4ft+ but those S/SE-SE winds will favour the gulf.

The surf will ease Friday under S/SE winds but we’ll review this Monday. Have a great weekend!