Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 31 Jan)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Nothing much Sat- small, weak SE windswells with light winds
• Possible flukey S swell may show Sun at reliable S swell magnets
• Small wind swells Mon
• Small E/NE swell starts to fill in Tues, leading to a few days of small fun surf (nothing sizey)
• Flukey S swell pulse for S magnets Tues, easing Wed
• Small S-SE swell Thurs easing Fri
• Unlikely to see any size from the tropics now, just a round of small fun E/NE swell easing later next week- stay tuned for updates Mon

Recap

S quadrant swells have been steady in the 3ft range through yesterday and now into today (bigger 4ft sets on the Hunter) but conditions have been marred by S’ly winds with only brief periods of cleaner conditions in the early morning under a SW flow. Similar winds again today with early light S’lies expected to tend SE through the day. 

Workable S swells yesterday before the wind got up

This weekend (Feb1-2)

No great changes to a lacklustre weekend f/cast. Weak high pressure moves into the Tasman with the remnants of a trough holding a modest fetch of SE breezes in the central Tasman. An active monsoon trough with various low pressure centres is anchoring a trade-wind fetch through the Coral Sea and extending out into the South Pacific which will see slowly developing trade swell in the sub-tropics.

Light SE winds for Sat with a’noon E’ly breezes and some small SE swell in the mix will hold a 2ft wave across open beaches. Pressure gradients are slack enough for a morning land breeze to aim for the early for the best of it.

Light winds again for Sun morning with winds shifting to NE seabreezes in the a’noon. Small SE-E/SE swells from the Tasman will dip a notch into the 1-2ft range. There is a low currently traversing the lower Tasman that may send some flukey S swell up the pipe making landfall on Sun. S swell magnets may hoover up some 2-3ft surf but coverage is likely to be patchy and focussed on reliable S facing beaches and reefs.

Next week (Feb3 onwards)

A more classic looking summer chart to start next week with high pressure in the Tasman and low pressure centres near New Caledonia and in the South Pacific slot, with a healthy E’ly tradewind fetch extending across most of the Central and Southern Coral Seas. We’ll discount the South Pacific low as it slides off to the SE quickly. 

The New Caledonia low and trade fetch will be active although favouring sub-tropical regions. 

We’ll also have to keep an eye on the southern swell window as a deep low tracks from SW of Tasmania into the Tasman (see below). 

Not much action for temperate NSW to start the week though. Small, weak E’ly swells in the 1-2ft range for Mon with light winds tending NE in the a’noon.

We should see a minor increase in E/NE swell Tues from the southern extent of E’ly winds pushing into the Northern Tasman, with slightly more energy expected. Another round of flukey S swell may show some 3ft sets at S facing beaches, more likely in the a’noon but again, expect a patchy coverage.

By Wed E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics is expected to bump up into the 2-3ft range, offering some fun beachies under a light/mod N’ly flow tending NE during the day.

A trough bringing a S’ly change may show either late Wed or early Thurs, we’ll revisit timing on Mon. A small flush of S then SE swell is expected as the trough lingers off the South Coast.

Doesn’t look like we will get much size from the tropical developments under current modelling. The problem is weak high pressure support which reduces pressure gradients and fetch size through the Eastern swell window and allows low pressure to slide off to the SE later next week.

We may see a front push into the Tasman next weekend generating some S swell during next weekend. We’ll see how that looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!