Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 30th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Size increases into Wed AM, easing during the day with SE winds easing
• Small traces of flukey long period S swell Thurs with light onshore winds, tending E/SE in the PM
• Flukey pulse of mid-period S swell Fri with light SE winds
• Small E/NE swell developing over the weekend as low pressure area develops in Coral Sea 
• Small E/NE swell expected to extend into next week
• NE windswell likely to develop in conjunction with E/NE swell next week
• Possible large low pressure area in Tasman later next week with plenty of S swell- stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Not much on offer since Mon with early offshore winds yesterday tending fresh S-SSE through the day, with an increase in mostly short-range swell to 2-3ft accompanying it. Today has seen stronger S swell trains fill in with size to 4ft at S facing beaches, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. Conditions remain ordinary with an onshore SE flow affecting most beaches apart from the most sheltered corners. 

Bit of swell getting into more sheltered spots but quality still low

This week (Nov 30- Dec 2)

We are seeing the “schizoid” pattern now develop whereby a monsoonal trough is splitting off a low pressure trough along the CQ coast, supported by a high pressure belt from the Bight to the Tasman Sea, while fronts and a parent low are entering the lower Tasman. That is seeing a regime where both S swells and a developing E’ly swell event are both in play across most of the Eastern Seaboard. S’ly swells are dominating the temperate coast while the more sub-tropical areas are under the influence of developing short range swells as the low pressure trough winds up through today.

In the short run and we’re looking at declining S swell through tomorrow as todays pulse dies down. Expect sets to 2-3ft at S facing beaches early with bigger sets on the Hunter, easing through the day. Some traces of longer period S swell will be in the mix through the a’noon but it’ll hard to utilise them as winds tend from E to E/SE as the high pressure ridge resets as reinforcing high pressure moves in from the Bight. 

SE winds will continue to be a problem Fri, although they are expected to ease through the a’noon as the ridge slackens a little. It won’t  really make much of a difference as the parent low now weakens as it enters the Tasman Sea later today into Thurs. As a result we’re only looking at 2ft sets across S facing beaches, bigger on the Hunter. There’ll be enough energy for a grovel but keep expectations pegged very low as far as quality goes. Through the late a’noon we should see a small amount of E/NE swell start to filter down from the low pressure system off the QLD coast. 

This weekend (Dec 3-4)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The trough of low pressure off the QLD coast will supply plenty of size to the sub-tropics but temperate NSW will get a much smaller pay-load of E/NE swell as the fetch stays well north and aimed at areas north of Yamba. 

Light winds are expected Sat morning, as a weak, troughy area hovers over the Sydney to South Coast area so clean conditions are on the menu. Not much size is expected with sets to 2ft and just the odd bigger one. Through the a’noon we’ll see a mod NE seabreeze develop.

That N’ly flow ramps up through Sun so you’ll need to get in early for cleanest conditions and more of the same 2ft+ E/NE swell coming from the low pressure trough up north. By lunch-time winds will be up in the 20kt range with a small amount of NE windswell supplementing the E/NE swell.

Next week (Dec 5 onwards)

Looks now like a couple of days of N’ly winds to start next week as high pressure moves out into the Tasman.

Expect continuing levels of small E/NE swell mixed in with NE windswell topping out around 2-3ft.

Models are really struggling to resolve the remnants of the low pressure trough next week, so revisions are likely on Fri. 

The remants of the old trough and a potential new trough budding off the monsoon trough line are likely to impact sub-tropical regions more, although maintaining a small E/NE swell signal and NE windswell into mid next week. There is a possibility one of those systems may track further south, possibly interacting with an approaching trough and low which bring a S’ly change mid next week (low confidence on timing). 

There’s broad model consensus the trough and low will form a large, cut-off low in the lower Tasman later next week (see below), with GFS suggesting a much more bullish outlook which would see strong S swell developing from Fri into the 6ft range.

EC has a more modest system but would still see some significant S swell develop during the same time frame.

We also may see remnants of a low pressure system reform near the North Island later next week so we’ll keep tabs on that and report back on Fri.

There’s a lot to keep an eye on, so check back in then.