South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 9th March)

Best Days: Entire period: windy points in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. Pockets of lighter morning SW winds are likely south from Coffs though. 

Recap: Plenty of surf, and plenty of wind all weekend. Most open locations saw 3-4ft sets through Saturday and Sunday, being from a mix of S’ly and SE swells, with plenty of runners down the sheltered points. Size has persisted into today but the wind’s eased back a little, allowing for a broader spread of opportunities. 

Small peelers at Noosa this arvo

Snapper looking OK this arvo

This week (Mar 10 - 13)

A strong ridge will remain anchored across southern Queensland for the next few days, maintaining fresh to strong S/SE thru’ SE winds throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. A gradual easing of winds is expected through Thursday and Friday though this will mainly be felt south from about Ballina or Yamba. 

As such, we’re looking at a week of similarly windy short to mid-range SE swells across this region. Size won’t reach much more than 3-4ft across the Gold, Tweed and Byron coasts, but the Sunshine Coast is a little further downstream (i.e. longer fetch length) so we may se a few bigger waves at exposed beaches north from Moreton Island. Of course, they’ll be horribly blown out and your only surfable options will be across the sheltered inner points, which will be a lot smaller. 

Bear in mind the very large morning high tides at the moment too.

The other swell source of interest for the week will originate from the south-eastern Tasman Sea. The remnants of ex-TC Esther spun up to the SW of New Zealand’s South Island over the weekend, forming a tight low with a decent fetch around it. However, satellite observations showed that wind strengths weren’t quite as strong as Friday’s model guidance suggested, and therefore I’m going to pull back tomorrow’s size estimate across Northern NSW. 

We’ll probably max out around 4-5ft on Tuesday afternoon at south facing beaches south of Byron, with smaller surf elsewhere. Size will ease steadily through Wednesday. 

The other issue is that local S/SE SE winds will spoil conditions south from the border to about Yamba, so only sheltered points and southern corners will see workable conditions. 

South from Coffs Harbour, winds also crop up from the SE but it won’t be anywhere near as strong as its northern counterparts, and both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings should see periods of light SW winds. 

The only other trend to note this week is that as the S/SE swell across Northern NSW fades from Wednesday onwards, we’ll see the trade swell dominate proceedings to finish the week, remaining largest across the Sunshine Coast with decreasing size south from the Gold Coast. 

Ex-TC Esther will linger off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island for the next few days, and may contribute a small spread of background SE swell through the second half of the week, but overall, we’ll see little change in the swell trend across SE Qld all week - but a gradual easing will occur across Northern NSW south from Yamba or thereabouts.  

As a side note, Thursday and Friday may pick up small sets across Northern NSW from distant S’ly groundswells, generated by passing polar lows below the continent at the moment. However it won’t be discernible beneath the local noise. 

This weekend (Mar 14 - 15)

Saturday is expected to be a relative low point in surf size, thanks to a temporary weakening of the ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday. Open beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW will abate to about 3ft+ and it’ll be smaller south from Ballina. A temporary window of light winds may also occur.

However, the synoptics are looking extremely dynamic for the long term period, and they’ll start to take effect locally from Sunday.

An active monsoon trough is expected to dominate the Coral Sea later this week and all of the models are in agreeance that we’ll see a significant Tropical Cyclone by the weekend, that’ll eventually track SE into the Northern Tasman Sea. As this pushes south, it’ll strengthen the coastal pressure gradient so gusty SE winds will resume across most regions - initially, just the Sunshine Coast during Sunday morning, then the Gold Coast and Far Northern NSW by later Sunday.

Concurrently, an unrelated high pressure system at southern Tasmania latitudes expected to drive a ridge up from the south during rhe day, affecting the Mid North Coast into the afternoon. 

We’ll see a reasonably solid increase in associated SE swell but at this stage the main take home point is that I can’t see any major cyclone swell event to develop for quite a few days yet. Sure, it can’t be ruled out - but current model guidance suggests this cyclone won’t be set up favourably within our swell window until it pushes into the northern Tasman Sea. So, keep a lid on your surf expectations for now. 

Also worth pointing out is a secondary swell that should appear through Sunday, originating from an easterly dip just north of New Zealand on Thursday that’s expected to evolve into a surface low by Friday (see below), and may display E’ly gales inside our swell window for a period (resulting in a Sunday afternoon arrival). However, we’ll have more information on this event in Wednesday’s update.

Next week (Mar 16 onwards)

So, this upcoming cyclone looks very significant on the synoptic charts - it does look like it’ll become a major system.

But.. that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be (proportionally) favourable for swell generation.

At the moment, I’m not particular keen on its early stages (fast SE track with the supporting ridge aimed into the Northern Coral Sea), but it’s impossible to ignore the multi-coloured WAMs further down the timeline and not imagine a significant swell event occurring somewhere along the East Coast. 

Indeed, if mid-next week’s charts pull off (see below), we’ll be looking at a very large swell event in excess of 15ft later next week. But right now, I'm really quite neutral on long term surf prospects from this system, because there's a long way to go. And we need a whole heap of ingredients in the mix before we can be confident of anything great in the surf department. So, cool yer jets.

For now, there’s really not much we can do but keep a close eye on things. The simple fact is that as soon as a complex tropical cyclone appears in the model mix, all bets are off with regard to the accuracy of the long term guidance so we’ll really need to keep a daily watch on proceedings. As I’m sure you (and I) will.

See you Wednesday!