South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor surf Thurs
• A slight bump in size Fri into Sat as ridge re-srengthens
• Winds shifting NE on Sun, with minor NE windswell for the MNC Sun/Mon
• Small tradeswells developing from Mon next week and persisting through the week
• Nothing concrete but still monitoring the tropical South Pacific for low pressure development 

Recap

No much surf to recap with small 1-2ft waves yesterday, smaller today with light morning winds, tending to weak E’ly breezes, more E/NE-NE south of the border. A very low energy start to 2025.

Sunrise made the first dawny of 2025 worth it

This week (Jan1-Jan 3)

No great change to the outlook with very weak pressure gradients across the Coral and Tasman Seas. Slack winds extend right across the South Pacific with only weak frontal activity south of the continent. In short, a very lacklustre surf outlook ahead. 

In the short run we’ll see another day of very small surf in the 1-1.5ft range (close to flat on the high tides!) with light morning winds tending to light E/SE-SE breezes, more moderate in SEQLD.

High pressure moves rapidly into the Tasman on Fri, which does strengthen the ridge along the SEQLD coast and increase the proximate SE flow. We’ll see local SE winds increase, along with a modest increase in short range SE-E/SE swell from 2ft up to 3ft - slightly smaller south of Ballina.

This weekend (Jan4-5)

Fridays small increase in short range swell lingers into Sat, offering up surfable 2 occ. 3ft beachies under light winds tending SE-E breezes. What surf lacks in size and power will be somewhat offset by light winds all day.

Similar winds for Sun, although tending more E/NE-NE on the MNC up to Yamba, and staying light E’ly north of the border. Again, nothing amazing on tap but we should see workable 2ft beachies on offer most of the day from a weak but persistent trade flow off the top of the high.

Next week (Jan 6 onwards)

The outlook for next week is…….awesome if you are a kid or learning to surf. Day after day of small surf from the E and light winds. 

Mon and Tues should see light winds across the board, with the caveat of a strengthening N-NE flow across the MNC as a trough approaches from the south. SEQLD should see light land and seabreezes. 

Tricky outlook for the trough with EC suggesting the trough moves N into Tues, bringing a S tending S/SE change later Tues into Wed.

There is some flukey S swell moving up the Tasman on Tues which may show some 2-3ft sets at some of the more reliable S swell magnets in NENSW- not likely to show much, if at all in SEQLD.

GFS is holding the trough southwards with continuing light E to NE’ly winds and workable E’ly tradeswells to 2ft. 

We’ll update on Fri but there should be a fun, workable wave in either scenario.

Models become divergent from mid next week with EC suggesting high pressure moving into the Tasman and a small trough sitting off the leading edge generating small SE swells for Thurs and possibly Fri.

GFS is holding a small trough off low pressure off the Gippsland coast with light NE winds and continuing E-E/NE’ly tradeswells not exceeding 2-3ft at this stage.

Let’s see how it looks on Fri.

Nothing concrete on the radar longer term. Models are still hinting at low pressure in the South Pacific but model skill has been low so far this summer. A trough in the Tasman may direct a SE flow late next week but with so much model divergence confidence is very low.

Nothing really short term, get the grovel game happening.

We’ll come back Fri and hope there is some better news on the longer term horizon.

Seeya then.