Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small blend of S swells Sat, small NE windswell Sun with N/NE winds both days
• Small NE windswell peaks Mon
• Flukey small S groundswell pulse Sun/Mon at S facing beaches and magnets
• Another trough Tues next week brings a spike in short range S-S/SE swell later Tues, peaking Wed
• Fun E-E/SE swells Thurs/Fri as trough lingers in Tasman with E’ly tending NE’ly winds
• Dynamic outlook now possible from early week 31/1 with NE swell then E’ly swell as low moves into Tasman- low confidence so check Mon for latest details

Recap

Short range S swell whipped up by fresh S’ly winds built to 3ft yesterday with a few bigger sets on the Hunter. Quality was very low under the fresh S’ly flow. Winds have eased into this morning with bumpy 2-3ft of leftover S/SE swell on offer under light SW-S breezes clocking around SE then E/NE through the day as high pressure moves into the Tasman. 

Dribbly but surfable leftover S/SE swells

This weekend (Jan4-5)

No great change to the f/cast for the weekend. With high pressure moving NE into the Tasman we’ll see winds shift N-NE and start to freshen Sat, maintaining or increasing a notch into Sun.

Not much in the way of swell for Sat with only small S’ly leftovers in the mix some minor S/SE swell from an off axis fetch near New Zealand. Keep expectations pegged low but S facing beaches should still be offering up some 2ft sets, possibly a notch bigger on the Hunter and other S magnets. A minor increase in NE windswell will favour areas south of Sydney with the fetch positioned off the South Coast. 

NE windswell does increase by a notch on Sun and spread northwards as the fetch develops up towards the MNC in response to an approaching trough. Light NW-N breezes early quickly clock around N-NE and freshen during the day with NE windswell not likely to exceed 2ft, apart from the South Coast, which should see 3ft surf from the NE.

We may see some traces of S swell show at S facing beaches but only a few inconsistent 2ft sets.

Next week (Jan 6 onwards)

We’ll see an unstable pattern to start next week with a weak high in the Tasman, stronger high in the Bight and a complex troughy area moving through the inland and Bass Strait between them. N-N/NE winds will hold for Mon with a continuation of NE windswell likely to build a notch into the 2-3ft range. Small S groundswell is likely to offer an inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft wave at the best magnets. A S’ly change will be incoming, either o/night Mon or early Tues depending on which major weather model gets it right. 

We should see a lighter offshore flow for a brief period Tues before winds freshen from the S, reaching speeds in excess of 20kts through the day. 

The trough and S-S/SE infeed into it as the strong high moves E is likely to generate a fast rising spike in new short range S swell. Models are suggesting o/night Tues with the new swell in the water Wed. EC has a slightly faster progression with the swell likely to kick later Tues. It’ll be another short range swell with fresh S’ly winds but a surfable option should be on the table.

Surf is likely to build into the 4ft range Wed with some bigger sets across open S facing stretches. Winds hold mod/fresh S-S/SE Wed so some shelter from these fresh breezes will be necessary to find a clean or semi-clean wave. 

We’re likely to see changes when we come back Mon but current modelling suggests the trough will stall in the Central/Northern Tasman holding a fun sized signal of E/SE-E swell dropping back from Wednesday’s peak in size. We should see at least 2-3ft of swell through Thurs into Fri with light E’ly winds tending more NE’ly on Fri. There are little troughy areas around the NSW Coast later next week which could see periods of lighter/variable breezes which we’ll update Mon. For now, there should be some fun,workable surf around during this period.

Further ahead and we have a dynamic outlook on the cards. An inland low and trough - a hybrid monsoonal feature- looks to approach the NSW coast, with a strengthening NE infeed into the system (see below) likely to see some unseasonally large NE swell later next weekend and into the new week 13/1. We may then see the low exit the coast and form a closed, large surface low in the Tasman. With a broad infeed of E/NE-E winds into the system that puts large E’ly swells on the radar for the majority of the Eastern seaboard later in the week. Way too early for specifics on size and timing with confidence low this far out, including over the event itself. Still, it’s good to finally have a decent swell on the radar.

We’ll flag it for now, and see what it looks like on Mon. 

Seeya then and have a great weekend!