South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• A slight bump in size Fri into Sat as ridge re-strengthens
• Winds shifting NE on Sun, with minor NE windswell for the MNC Sun/Mon
• Small tradeswells developing from Mon next week holding into Wed at minor levels
• Trough brings a new S-SE swell from later Wed into Thurs, persisting at lower levels Fri/Sat
• Possible inland low approaching late next week bringing NE-E/NE infeed then exiting coast and sitting in Tasman- possibly a source of E’ly swells - low confidence in specifics, check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

We saw a small boost in short range SE-E/SE swell yesterday with scrappy 2 occ. 3ft surf on offer under an onshore flow. Not great but a bit more energy than we had seen. Similar this morning, just a smidge smaller with mostly 2ft surf the occ. 3ft set. Winds have picked up from the SE as a high pressure ridge rebuilds along the NENSW/QLD coast. 

Grungy but surfable

This weekend (Jan4-5)

No great change to the f/cast for the weekend. With high pressure moving NE into the Tasman we’ll see winds slowly clock around eastwards then E/NE-NE in NENSW, with SEQLD seeing a more classic SE tending E’ly flow. 

Nothing amazing surf-wise. The small boost in size from the SE-E/SE was generated by a minor increase in winds feeding into a trough. That is now moving northwards, leaving a generalised weak SE-E/SE trade flow in the Southern Coral Sea which will hold 2ft surf through Sat. Expect low quality, messy but rideable surf across open stretches with small peelers on the Points at low tide.

We’ll see a slight decrease Sun as the fetch contracts eastwards, leaving a weak signal of 2ft surf in SEQLD, grading smaller 1-2ft south of Byron-Ballina. Winds will tend E-NE with conditions deteriorating across the board. 

Next week (Jan 6 onwards)

We’ll see an unstable pattern to start next week with a weak high in the Tasman, stronger high in the Bight and a complex troughy area moving through the inland and Bass Strait between them. N-N/NE winds will hold for Mon and Tues with a small signal of E’ly tradeswell and NE windswell south of Yamba- not exceeding 2ft from either source.

A S’ly change will be incoming as the trough moves northwards either o/night Tues or early Wed depending on which major weather model gets it right. We may see the trough stall about the Far North Coast early Wed. Check back Mon for that.

The trough and S-S/SE infeed into it as the strong high moves E is likely to generate a flush in new S-S/SE swell. Models are suggesting o/night Wed with the new swell in the water Thurs. EC has a slightly faster progression with the swell likely to kick earlier Wed. It’ll be another short range swell with winds dependent on where the trough sits, likely stronger S-SE winds on the MNC, possibly tending lighter and more variable even offshore north of the trough line.

Surf is likely to build into the 2-3ft range Thurs with some bigger sets possible  across open S facing stretches. 

We’re likely to see changes when we come back Mon but current modelling suggests the trough will stall in the Central/Northern Tasman holding a fun sized signal of E/SE-E swell dropping back from Thursday’s peak in size. We should see at least 2-3ft of swell through Fri, easing  into Sat with light E’ly winds tending more NE’ly on Fri. There are little troughy areas around the NSW Coast later next week which could see periods of lighter/variable breezes which we’ll update Mon. For now, there should be some fun, workable surf around during this period.

Further ahead and we have a dynamic outlook on the cards. An inland low and trough - a hybrid monsoonal feature- looks to approach the NSW coast, with a strengthening NE infeed into the system likely to see some NE swell develop late next week or into the new week 13/1. We may then see the low exit the coast and form a closed, large surface low in the Tasman. With a broad infeed of E/NE-E winds into the system that puts mod/large E’ly swells on the radar for the majority of the Eastern seaboard later in the week. Way too early for specifics on size and timing with confidence low this far out, including over the event itself. Still, it’s good to finally have a decent swell on the radar.

We’ll flag it for now, and see what it looks like on Mon. 

Seeya then and have a great weekend!