South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 1st May)

Best Days: Plenty of waves every day across all coasts though conditions won't be great until next week when we'll be under a troughy pattern locally. 

Recap: Tuesday delivered 3-5ft S’ly swell across the Northern NSW coast but the direction wasn’t great for SE Qld, so wave heights were much smaller here. The south swell eased steadily today and we’ve seen building E/SE swells from a local fetch across the Northern Tasman Sea, though winds have been locally onshore in most regions so conditions haven’t been great. 

This week (May 2-3)

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We’re locked in a somewhat stationary synoptic pattern at the moment, thanks to a slow moving high pressure system setting up camp in the eastern Tasman Sea.

This is directly a broad E/SE fetch from the northern Tasman into the Coral Sea, which will generate a steady supply of E’ly swell for the next three or four days.

Wave heights will be largest across the SE Qld region (specifically, the Sunshine Coast), with surf size gradually becoming smaller as you track south to the Mid North Coast. Northern regions should see 3-4ft sets at times over the next few days, with 2-3ft surf in southern regions.

The big problem for the next few days will be the local winds. 

Intermittent onshores will continue across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (E'ly Thurs, NE Fri), but there’ll be brief periods of light variable winds at times. Therefore, expect mainly lumpy/bumpy conditions across the surf zone but with occasional spells of clean faces. 

Across the Mid North Coast, extending north up into the Yamba or maybe Ballina region, we’ll see winds veer more NE and then N’ly at times, becoming gusty too. As such only northern corners will offer workable conditions. Keep your expectations low.

This weekend (May 4-5)

The trade flow across the Northern Tasman Sea will weaken into the weekend, leading to a gradual easing of size from Saturday onwards. However, a similar stationary fetch way out in the South Pacific (atop a large high pressure system at the moment) should ensure a small supply of intermittent E'ly swell into the weekend and early next week.

The big factor this weekend will be the winds.

A southerly change will push up along the Northern NSW coast on Saturday, reaching the Mid North Coast around lunchtime and the Far North Coast late in the day, then SE Qld overnight (ahead of it, winds may tend NW, favouring the open beaches for much of Saturday in the north).

Sunday's resulting south swell (and strong local S/SW winds) will be linked to an evolving Tasman Low, however most of Sunday’s increase in surf size will be local generated, and therefore the swell quality won’t be especially high. 

Better quality groundswell is expected early next week from several sources, but despite set waves likely to reach 4-5ft+ at south facing beaches (south of Byron) by late Sunday, protected locations will be very small and I am doubtful that the south swell will make much of an impact in SE Qld - where local winds will be best suited.

Next week (May 6 onwards)

We’ve got plenty of swell due next week. But, the swell sources are tricky so we’ll have to take a closer look on Friday. 

A series of deep polar lows travelling along the ice shelf well south of Tasmania on Saturday will kick up small long period S'ly energy for Monday and Tuesday across Northern NSW, peaking around 3-4ft at south facing beaches.

However there’s much more size potential from the weekend’s Tasman Low.

Model guidance is a little all over the shop right now, but we’re looking at potentially large SE thru' S’ly swells across Southern NSW. Unfortunately, the alignment of the low is a little off-kilter for our region (see chart below) so I’m going to cautiously hold size in around 4-5ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron - though with much better quality swell, and light local winds as troughy conditions settle across the region. 

Confidence is not high on whether this swell will push north of the border though. And locations not open to the south will be smaller. 

This event will ease into Tuesday, to be replaced with a moderate E’ly swell from a stationary fetch on the eastern flank of the associated trough occupying the western Tasman Sea. Again, this fetch looks like it may end up being better aimed towards Southern NSW than Northern NSW (see chart below), which is OK for the Mid North Coast but size potential decreases north from Yamba, with a lot less size likely in SE Qld. 

However! It’s not all over… the north-eastern Tasman region looks pretty juicy next week, as the resulting fetch is likely to extend further back into the South Pacific swell window and is thus a potentially longer term source of E’ly swell for the region, if the Tasman trough remains slow moving through the week (which is quite likely).

At this stage Tues/Wed/Thurs could all see E’ly swell anywhere between 3-5ft (across the Mid North Coast, smaller to the north), with much better conditions as the local airstream rapidly from Sunday’s blow, and there’s certainly more than a couple of ingredients on the boil for another significant swell generating system to redevelop in the Tasman Sea towards the end of the working week too, that could supply stronger surf into next weekend.

Let’s take another look on Friday.