Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 17th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny NE windswell Tues AM
• Late kick in S swell Tues with fresh W/SW winds
• Stronger S swell pulse Wed, easing quickly Thurs
• Spike in NE windswell Thurs PM, easing quickly into Fri
• Tiny Sat with fun E swell Sun, extending into Mon/Tues

Recap

Not much to recap over the weekend with minor amounts of NE swell wrapping in today in the 1-12.5ft range under fresh NW winds. Today has seen similar surf, just a notch bigger with mod/fresh W-NW winds.

This week and next week (Jul 17 - 28)

We’ve got a mobile pattern this week with high pressure over NSW slipping out into the Tasman, before a trough and front push into the Tasman in advance of another high cell moving over Southern NSW into the Tasman. We’ll see quite a few wind change this week as a result and an upgrade in S-S/SE swell energy as the trough and front develop a handy fetch in the Tasman. A few juicy developments now showing in the medium term as well. Read on for details.

In the short run and fresh/strong NW winds tend W/SW at similar speeds as a trough and strong front cross the Island. Small NE windswell wrap in the 2ft range gets replaced by a late kick in new S swell, possibly reaching 3ft on dark.

Wednesday now looks dynamic as a trough/front, with a strong pressure gradient to a high moving across NSW push S’ly quarter gales  up into the Tasman. Early strong SW winds tend variable/light N’ly as a high moves in over the Island. Sizey S swell to 3-4ft early eases during the a’noon.

S swell gets replaced by building NE windswell Thurs as the high moves E and a fetch of N’ly winds quickly strengthens in Bass Strait. Expect easing S swells in the morning with NE swell building to 3-4ft in the a’noon under freshening N-NNW winds.

Size drops away rapidly into Fri with light offshore winds developing as a weak front pushes past the Island.

Tiny surf then extends into Sat with offshore winds.

Sun looks a better bet. The trough (Tues) moves NE and forms a large area of low pressure N of the North Island late this week. We may see some quality groundswell form this source depending on how the fetch is located with respect to the swell shadow of the North Island. Initially though strong winds out of Cook Strait and the west coast of the North Island send a small pulse of E swell which looks to arrive Sun, under current modelling. Expect clean 2 to occasional 3ft surf Sun under light S’ly winds, with offshore breezes for most of the morning.

Surf should hold at a fun size from the E into Mon, building a notch Tues before easing and remaining small for most of next week.

Low pressure development in the Tasman next week is expected to be too far north for Tasmania but we’ll keep tabs on it and report back Wed.