Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 23rd June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Combination of E/NE-E swells this weekend wth offshore winds
• S swell pulses into next week  sizey by mid week
• More S swell into later next week as wintry pattern continues

Recap

Building NE swells to 2ft yesterday have further increased to 4-5ft today with fresh NE winds unfortunately now tending fresh E as a trough which formed NE of the Island moved S and dragged an onshore flow with it.

This weekend and next week (Jun 23 - 30)

High pressure over the continent and off the QLD Coast is still supplying ridging which is now being strengthened by the next series of troughs and fronts. Off Tasmania a small low pressure cell is slowly moving away with easing onshore winds and a chunky NE swell still building.

We’ll see plenty of  E-E/NE swell into Sat, solid 4-6ft in the morning and easing thrugh the day. Early variable winds, should tend offshore W/NW  to W as the trough moves away. 

NW winds then establish Sun as a mid-latitude low approaches from the W. Fun leftovers from the E should see 2-3ft surf through the morning, easing during the day.

Into next week and a strong front and low well below Tasmania drive W’ly gales out of Bass Strait Mon, with a weaker fetch of better aligned SW winds well below Tasmania. That will will see fresh W’ly winds Mon as the front pushes aggressively NE into the Tasman with small S swells developing, in the 2ft range at S facing beaches and extending into Tuesday.

We’ll see S swell pulses all next week but models now suggest they will be on the small/medium side as winds are quite zonal and the fetches are aimed more at targets across the Tasman and up into S’ward exposures in the South Pacific Islands.

We’ll factor in a new pulse of S swell for Wed in the 3ft range, with more small S swell pulses likely Thurs into Fri, in a similar range.

Towards the end of next week models are suggesting a massive low pressure gyre forming in New Zealand longitudes. Most of the swell producing fetch will be aimed at South Pacific and American targets but we should see some smaller long period swell radially spread from this source as it first forms and from weaker winds on this side of the Tasman. We’ll see how models look when we come back Mon, but some long period S swell is on the radar for next weekend, depending on the evolution of this massive low.

Check back Mon to see how it’s shaping up and have a great weekend!