Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building S groundswell Tue with strong S/SW tending S/SE winds
• Easing S swell Wed with W/SW tending SE winds
• New round of NE windswell beginning Thurs with strong pulses Fri/Sat with improving winds
• Easing quickly Sun
• Looks like small surf next week apart from a tiny pulse of S swell Mon

Recap

Plenty of size Sat with strong NE swell to 6ft, easing though the day with NW winds. Sunday was much smaller 2-3ft with W winds and today has eased right back to tiny with W winds, now tending SW as a cold front pushes through. 

This week and next week (Sep 12 - 23)

A strong, but decaying cold front tied to a mid-latitude/polar low is pushing gales through a wide swathe of the lower Tasman, with a handy S swell now being generated for the Island. A relatively weak high (1025hPa) is pushing though the Bight with a transitory ridge, quickly breaking down and tending N’ly mid week, generating another round of NE wind-swell, before another mid-latitude low pushes through and brings a NW to W’ly flow across the weekend. It’s quite a similar pattern to last week, albeit a bit weaker and we’ll get some reasonable  surf windows out of it, although winds look a bit troublesome.

In the short run and S swell is on track for tomorrow with plenty of size expected to build in during the day. Expect size to build from 3ft, up into the 4-5ft range. Winds will be a problem, clocking around from SW to S/SE during the day before easing late in the a’noon.

Size dips down through Wed, with variable winds, tending N’ly and freshening during the day as the high moves it into the Tasman. Expect size in the 3-4ft range early, dropping back to 2-3ft during the day with best conditions early in the morning. 

By Thurs we’ll be lining up another round of NE swell, with plenty of size expected as an approaching complex low tightens the pressure gradient with a Tasman high and generates a powerful NE fetch down the Western Tasman Sea.

Expect size to build into the 3-4ft range early, easing a notch during the day as the initial fetch eases back. Winds will be mod N’ly.

Surf builds again Fri from 3ft into the 4-5ft range and with the approaching low we should see winds clock around to the NW, offering excellent conditions on the beachbreaks. 

The weekend should have fun waves as the NE fetch slowly moves off, but remains in the NETas swell window. An intensification in windspeeds actually builds size into Sat morning with 4-5ft surf and winds from the NW, maintaining good conditions. 

Size rapidly eases through Sun with clean conditions as W’ly winds push through courtesy of a cold front attached to the incoming low. Expect size to dip from 3ft into the 2ft and below range during the day.

Into next week and we should see a small S swell from the SW fetch will rapidly transits past Tasmania on Sun, with size Mon in the 2ft range at S facing beaches.

Looks very quiet as we move into the Spring Equinox. Unfortunately the stalled mid-latitude low looks to fizzle out as it enters the Tasman early next week, leaving a weak, troughy pattern and light pressure gradients.

Following that looks like we will see a few days of tiny surf, probably the closest to flat we’ve seen for a long time.

Expect that to last Tues-Thurs at this stage, with weak NW to W winds, tending to light S’lies later in the week as a very tepid high pressure ridge sets up along the coast.

Looks better for fishing or other activities than surfing.

We may see a N’ly flow develop later Thurs into Fri, with a round of NE windswell, but it’s way too early to have any confidence in that scenario.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. 

For now, we’ve got a little bit to keep us occupied in the short term.