Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed April 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small amounts of long period S swell Thurs, easing into Fri with NW winds
• Not much over the weekend- minor amounts of S swell wrap at S facing beaches, tiny/flat elsewhere
• NE windswell likely next week as high moves into Tasman
• Better quality E/NE swell possible late next week as tropical depression drifts into Tasman Sea- check back Fri for the latest
• Recap
• Small amounts of S swell yesterday were in the 2 occ. 3ft range at S facing beaches with NW winds. Size has dipped a notch today with the occ. 2ft wave from the S under mod/fresh NW winds. 

This week and next week (Apr 9 - 18)

High pressure is moving into the Tasman, strengthening as it drifts towards New Zealand, where it is expected to become a dominant “flat topped” feature, reinforced by subsequent high pressure moving into the Tasman. We’ll see a long E’ly fetch develop through the South Pacific slot through the end of this week, enhanced by a trough of low pressure near New Caledonia which is attached to a still active monsoon trough. Swells from this source may eventually reach NETas later next week. The storm track under the continent is active but fetches are mostly zonal so we’ll only see minor, flukey long period S swell wrap at reliable  S swell magnets, if at all. That storm track is further suppressed into next week by the dominant downstream blocking high pressure pattern which should generate some NE windswell early next week.

In the short run it’ll be another day of small S swells, with long period swell generated by a small low that traversed the polar shelf, south-west of Tasmania yesterday. Nothing too serious, but a few 2ft sets should be on offer with another day of mod NW winds, freshening through the a’noon.

By Fri surf is expected to drop down with fresh W/NW winds as a front passes to the south then shifting S/SE-SE as a new high pressure ridge drifts over the state. 

The high quickly shifts into the Tasman o/night Fri into Sat and strengthens, bringing a mod/fresh NE flow later Sat before a weak trough brings a S’ly change on Sun.

Not a great deal of surf over the weekend. More small, long period S swell wrap from Fridays front with sets to 2ft, with minor NE windswell adding similar size later Sat into Sun morning before easing. 

By next week we’ll see another strong high move E of Tasmania with winds likely to shift NW through NE on Mon and remain N-NE through until Wed. Workable NE windswell is likely to develop later Mon or through Tues and extend into Wed. 

Later next week we may see some E/NE swell filtering down from a tropical depression drifting southwards into the Tasman Sea.

Too early to have any confidence in specifics so check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then.