Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon April 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Weak SE windwell building Mon with strong S/SE tending SE winds
• Small, inconsistent S'ly groundswell for Tue PM, easing Wed
• Building E swell Tue with gusty E-E/NE-NE winds
• Peak in E swell Wed with N/NW tending N/NE winds
• Easing swell Thu with N/NW winds
• Large E’ly swell now expected to build Good Friday from low in Tasman with light NW tending N’ly winds
• Still pumping Sat with light NW-N winds
• Easing surf Sun
• Small S swells next week

Recap

No surf to speak of over the weekend with tiny surf to 1-1.5ft both days, barely rideable. Today we are seeing building E/NE swells to 2-3ft with S’ly winds. 

This week and next week (Apr 14 - 25)

We’ve got a very dynamic week ahead, anchored by very strong high pressure moving into the far-southern Tasman and acting as anvil for a deep low which is expected to form in the tropical South Pacific between New Caledonia and Vanuatu o/night into tomorrow before drifting SW into the Tasman as a deep, extra-tropical low pressure system. This system intensifies through the week and is now expected to generate an E’ly quadrant swell for NETas, over the Easter weekend. There’ll be plenty of swell from the lead-up work as well with a trough off the NSW South Coast seeing a SE fetch supplying E’ly swell for NETas.

In the short run we’ll see E’ly tending NE’ly winds tomorrow as high pressure moves into the Tasman. E’ly swells from the fetch off the NSW Coast should provide some fun sized surf in the 2 occ. 3ft range. Small amounts of S’ly groundswell wrap supply some inconsistent 2ft sets.

Size from that source should boost a notch into Wed with sets to 3ft+ and N’ly winds freshening through the day. Small S’ly groundswell supplies a few small sets to 2ft.

A very temporary dip in size looks imminent for Thurs as the closer range Tasman Sea source fades out and we wait for the new swell from the tropical low to make landfall. Certainly by Wed into Thurs the synoptic chart should look insane with a deep low (970-980hPa) retrograding into the Tasman, positioned inside the North island with plenty of space for severe gale to low end storm force winds to be aimed up at the east coast (see below). We’ll expect size to be down on Thurs into the 2-3ft range  with a slow downwards trend. Conditions should be good with light NW winds tending to light/mod N’lies. 

Good Friday looks like it will be very good indeed. Powerful, pumping swells from the E/NE should build through the morning after an undersized start. Size looks to be in the 6ft range under current modelling with a few 8ft sets a possibility. We’ll finesse that as we get closer to the mark but confidence is now high on the event delivering a significant swell event. Experienced surfers only at most breaks, apart from a few very sheltered novelty spots. This won’t be a swell for people not confident in their ability and fitness to handle heavy water, including getting out and potentially swimming in. Early light W-NW breezes tend N’ly through the day.

Still pumping into Sat although we’re likely to be down a notch from Good Friday’s peak. Likely a solid 6ft with occ. 8ft sets still in the water, under light W-SW winds tending to light a’noon N-NE seabreezes. Still solid and powerful and suitable for experienced surfers. 

By Sun we should see surf easing into a range more suitable for a wider range of recreational surfers with 3-4ft surf easing through the day. Light/mod NW winds supply premium offshore conditions before a S’ly change. 

A fair bit of model divergence into next week but we should see at the least a new high move through the Bight and into the Tasman next week. A new ridge and S’ly change early week is likely to bring some small S swell into the picture, possibly accentuated by remnants of this weeks low still hanging around to intensify the S’ly fetch (GFS scenario).

Still lots of uncertainty though, with ECMWF suggesting remnants of the low sitting near the South Island, possibly as a source of S/SE swell and an inland trough/low approaching from Victoria, with an E/NE infeed into the low early next week. 

We’ll see how those possibilities look through the week, in the mean-time plenty to focus on short-term with bigger boards likely coming into play from Good Friday. 

Seeya Wed for the next update.