Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon April 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swell Tue with W tending NE winds
• Small amounts of S swell Wed, easing with W tending NW winds
• Small amounts of long period S swell Thurs, easing into Fri with NW winds
• Not much over the weekend
• SE-E/SE swell possible next week as trough deepens to the NE of the state- check back Wed for latest revisions

Recap

Not much over the weekend with small 2ft surf Sat and tiny/flat surf Sun. Only small to start today but we are already seeing building S swells to 2-3ft at S facing beaches under W tending SW winds. 

This week and next week (Apr 7 - 18)

A front passes into the Tasman overnight and robust fetch of SW gales is trailing behind, currently sweeping NE past the SE coast of Tasmania. We’ll see a moderate S swell generated by this fetch, with a dominant high moving into the Tasman in it’s wake and strengthening through the week. A long E’ly fetch then develops in the South Pacific slot with the head of the fetch extending into the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman. E’ly swells from this source will initially favour the sub-tropics before filtering down into temperate NSW and just reaching NETas. Zonal fronts well to the south of the continent will supply some flukey long period S swell wrap to magnets later in the week. Longer term the Tasman and Coral Seas are looking unstable again with low pressure development likely. 

In the short run we’ll see SW winds ease off through tomorrow and tend to variable breezes. A morning peak in S swell to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks will ease through the day.

Winds shift back W/NW on Wed, tending variable then N/NW through the a’noon as high pressure sits to the NE and a zonal front passes to the south. Models are suggesting a small amount of S swell wrap on Wed pushing surf back up to 3ft at S facing beaches easing through the day- that may be optimistic.

NW winds on Thurs and small amounts of longer period S swell wrap to 2ft at S exposed breaks.

That swell eases further into Fri with tiny surf from the S and a small amount of NE swell from winds off the NSW Coast aimed at Tasmania. Nothing major, with size in the 1-2ft range.

Into the weekend and a weak trough off the NE of the state sees variable winds into Sat, likely tending N-NE in the a’noon. Small amounts of long period S swell wrap to 1-2ft on offer with some minor NE windswell possible in the a’noon. Keep expectations low because surf is likely to be less than 2ft.

Surf remains tiny on Sun.

Next week we may see a trough deepen to the NE of the state, aiming up an E’ly-SE’ly fetch at the island. Still some model divergence to get through, but if that comes off we’ll see building swells Mon-Tues with onshore winds. Small amounts of E/NE swell from the tradewinds in the tropics are also a possibility.

Activity from the S looks to continue at small/moderate levels as fronts push through under the continent, although nothing directly aims up into the Tasman under current modelling. 

We’ll report back Wed.

Seeya then!