The broad, complex Tasman low which generated large S swells is now positioned on the other side of New Zealand with a lingering fetch of SSE-SE winds under the South Island. A much smaller, cut-off low NW  of Tasmania is linked via a trough line to TC Ilsa  off the Kimberly Coast and is expected to drift into the Tasman Sea tomorrow bringing a fresh S’ly flow to round off the week. A dynamic trough blocking pattern is then expected to unfold in the medium term.

A mid-latitude low slips East of Tasmania overnight and deepens rapidly as it merges with an incoming frontal system. The front brings a strong NW tending W’ly flow through Sat which will herald the start of a major S swell episode, favouring NENSW for size.

This will direct an E’ly fetch across a wide swathe of the Eastern seaboard from the sub-tropics down to the Sydney region. A small closed low forming in the trough then slowly retracts eastwards as we head into the Easter weekend. Winds are going to be a bit tricky but we’ll have plenty of E/SE-SE swell to play with this week as this fetch forms up.

Still a complex, troughy pattern in play with a slow moving trough of low pressure drifting south off the Gippsland coast towards waters East of Tasmania. A front sweeping in behind the trough is bringing a clearing W’ly flow through temperate NSW today, reaching the sub-tropics tomorrow.