South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 8th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Workable E/NE tradewind swell over the weekend- favouring SEQLD for size
• S’ly winds for the weekend- tending W/SW Sat and more S/SE Sun
• Small S swell Sun, favouring NENSW for size
• More S swell, potentially sizey next week with strong pulses likely Wed and Fri
• Mix of S swell and potential developing tradewind swell likely Fri next week and extending into the weekend

Recap

Mostly tiny across the region yesterday, although a sneaky S swell provided some 3ft sets at the better S swell magnets in NENSW under light morning winds which tended mod/fresh N-NE through the day. A messy surf this morning for most of the region with onshore N-NE winds. Semi-clean beachbreaks (and some small waves on the Points) on the Sunshine Coast benefited from E/NE swell to 2 occ. 3ft, while most of the region was small and less than 2ft. We should see some more size next week, with S swells favouring south of the border for size. 

Nothing amazing but a few workable beachies on the Sunny Coast under E/NE swell

This weekend (Sep 9-10)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. The headline act is a complex low system approaching Tasmania with an embedded front and linked to a long inland trough. A NE-E/NE infeed into this system is producing swell from that quarter today and as the low clears the swell shadow of Tasmania we’ll start to see swells from the S. Following systems next week look to generate stronger, longer period S’ly swells.

An overnight wind change should see morning offshore winds likely more SW south of Ballina-Yamba and more W/NW north of the border before winds S’ly throughout the region, ending up S/SE through the day. A mix of leftover NE and E/NE  tradewind swells to 2ft  (more 2-3ft from Tweed North) are on offer for the morning, with traces of long period S swell from a deep frontal system passing through the far lower Tasman, adding another source of inconsistent 2ft swell to S facing beaches in NENSW. Nothing amazing but you should be able to hunt up a rideable wave.

Straight SE winds Sun as the front/low dissipates and moves SE and a high pressure ridge builds along the coast. There may be a brief period of SW winds in the usual places on the Southern Gold Coast and Far NENSW. An increase in S swell for the morning in NENSW with size in the 2-3ft range showing later in the day across more N’ly regions. Mixed in will be some mid period E/NE swell from the tradewind fetch, adding in some 2 occ 3ft sets and the dominant swell source in SEQLD.

Next week (Sep 11 onwards)

Reinforcing S swells are still in the menu for next week, albeit a little downgraded as the follow-up fronts don’t penetrate as far into the Tasman Sea as originally modelled. We’ll still see S swell pulses for most of next week, with Mon seeing size increase to 3ft at S facing beaches, easing a notch during the a’noon. Winds will remain from the S/SE-SE as a high pressure ridge firms along the QLD coast- lighter inshore early along the Southern Gold Coast and Tweed-Byron. E’ly swells should chug away in the 2-3ft range during Mon/Tues, becoming more inconsistent as swells comes from more distant tradewind sources.

S-S/SE swell eases through Tues so we’ll be relying mostly on small E swells, especiallly in SEQLD. 

Lighter winds are expected for Wed as the ridge relaxes and weaker pressure gradients moves over the sub-tropics. The trend is then upwards Wed as period  charts show the next pulse moving up the coast. Likely a slightly undersized start in the 2-3ft range before size kicks up to 3-4ft in the a’noon, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD.

Another high pressure ridge is then expected to build Thurs, bringing S-SE winds again across the region.

The next pulse looks to kick Thurs and this should be much stronger as severe gales in the fetch really boost swell periods. Expect some 4-5ft sets at least at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 3ft in SEQLD, with some bigger sets at the better S swell magnets.

This pulse should back down late Thurs, with plenty of size still through the morning before a last pulse Fri- in the 3-4ft range.

This event will have a long tail as the frontal progression slows in New Zealand longitudes and we should see S-S/SE swell linger into next weekend, holding size in the 3ft range at a minimum.

We’ll see how that looks on Mon but models are in broad agreement so we can pencil in plenty of surfing next week at S exposed breaks.

A tradewind band in the Coral Sea and extending into the South Pacific will favour sub-tropical regions with some building E/NE energy likely from this source Fri into the weekend, pencilled in for 2-3ft.

Let’s see how it looks Mon. Until then, have a great weekend!