South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 15th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mix of S swell and small  tradewind swell likely Fri 
• Fun sized E-E/NE swell over the weekend with light winds tending N-NE in the a’noon (stronger south of Byron)
• Quality E-E/NE swell holds Mon/Tues with N’ly winds (lighter NW in the morning)
• More S swell and small tradewind swell into the medium term

Recap

S’ly groundswells have provided some good/great waves at S facing beaches yesterday with size in the 3-5ft range across NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD where small amounts of E swell helped top up size. Conditions were clean for the morning with light offshore winds, tending to light/mod sou-easters in the a’noon. Size has eased today with S swells slowly easing and becoming less consistent, although there’s still some 4ft sets in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. Similar winds to yesterday, light SW early tending to SE breezes through the day, more E-E/NE south of Byron.

Long period S swell strong enough to wrap into the more sheltered Points

This weekend (Sep 16-17)

A mixed bag still expected this weekend with residual S swell trains and building E-E/NE swells from a  broad, angular tropical depression centred around New Caledonia. Compared to Wednesday’s model runs the fetch is a little off axis and then retreats back to a position E of New Caledonia, limiting the top end of wave heights. We’ll still see some fun waves though.  A few leftover S swell trains should hold some 2 occ 3ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW Sat but energy will be nn the way down. E swell should build through the day, especially in SEQLD with 3ft sets filling through the a’noon. Variable winds throughout for the morning, with winds tending SE-NE in SEQLD and N/NE south of the border. If you can work with those winds there should be fun options around. 

Similar winds Sun, although the N’ly flow will freshen in NENSW, especially in the a’noon. Lighter, more variable winds are expected in SEQLD. Plenty of fun sized E/NE swell to 3ft with the occ. bigger set in SEQLD. You’ll need to find a backbench to deal with the N’ly flow in NENSW, it should be light enough to deal with in SEQLD. 

Next week (Sep 18 onwards)

High pressure belt remains in the Tasman next week at sub-tropical latitudes with a light/mod N’ly flow developing. E-E/NE from the fetch adjacent to New Caledonia is expected to chug away, in typical pulsey tradeswell fashion with quality sets to 3-4ft expected through Mon and into Tues, possibly with some bigger embedded pulses. We'll see how the fetch looks over the weekend but a few 5ft sets may be on offer Mon/Tues across SEQLD.

N’ly winds will be fresher south of the border Mon, but we may see a trough interrupt the N’ly flow briefly Tues, with some potential for an offshore morning. 

Small amounts of NE windswell across the MNC on Wed, join an easing E/NE swell from the South Pacific. We should see a floor under the easing trend as the tradewind fetch slowly retreats Eastwards but maintains a broad coverage of the South Pacific, maintaining an inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft surf.

A S’ly change is expected Thurs as a front and new high pressure ridge work their way up the coast.

Small swells from the S then occupy the rest of next week mixed in with tradewind swell. Nothing too sizey is expected from the S, at this stage, likely topping out at 3ft+ in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD.

Under this scenario we’re looking at a small blend of S and E swells Fri into the weekend.

More small S swell is then expected late in the weekend as another modest low enters the Tasman. High pressure to the East of Tasmania looks to set up a ridge across the sub-tropics with a SE flow. Tradewinds in the South Pacific will likely maintain a weak, background signal of E/NE swell into the medium term.

Time to get the grovellers waxed up.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!