South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 30th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, but fun E’ly tradewind swells persist this week, boosting a notch into the weekend as depression drifts down from South Pacific
• Late kick in S swell Fri for MNC as low pressure forms in Tasman
• Moderate S-S/SE swell this weekend, favouring NENSW for size with S’ly winds Sat, light/variable Sun
• Small pulses of SE swell Tues/Wed next week as low drifts towards NZ
• More S swell in the medium term

Recap

Long period S swell, mixed with some E/SE long range swell and E/NE swell supplied surf a notch bigger yesterday, with NENSW S swell magnets taking the prize with 3-4ft sets, mostly 2ft elsewhere. Conditions were primo until mid morning with light/variable winds, and a’noon seabreezes. Today has seen S swell ease, with 2-3ft surf at S swell magnets in NENSW, smaller 2ft elsewhere, with E’ly swells dominating. The N’ly flow is stronger today with a shorter window of light morning winds before they kicked in.

A fun mixed bag for the dawny

This week (Aug 30- Sep 1)

There’s a troughy pattern in play at present, with a long trough snaking from inland QLD down to the Central/Southern NSW Coast. Return flow off the back of a retreating high is feeding N’ly winds into the trough line. We’re expecting a front to interact with the trough overnight Thurs to form a low pressure trough in the Tasman. This trough then absorbs another trough of low pressure moving south from the South Pacific islands to form a large area of low pressure near New Zealand. Compared to Mondays notes the components of this complex pattern all look a little weaker and more mobile with reduced swell generating potential, but we will still see some useful pulses from the various incarnations of the broad pattern.

In the short run and if you’ve been finding any fun waves the last couple of days hit the replay button because we’re looking at more of the same small mixed bag consisting of inconsistent long range swell and small E/NE swell offering up surf in the 2ft range at best. Backbeaches will be best with a morning NW flow quickly tending N’ly and freshening through the day north of the border. A trough will bring a S’ly change to the MNC by mid morning, mid a’noon Yamba-Byron and tickling the border on dark.

We’re still on track for a small spike in S swell through later Fri a’noon on the MNC-Ballina-Byron region, although most of it will be short range energy whipped up by the proximate fetch to the NSW coastline, and accompanied by mod S’ly winds. Surf will be small 1-2ft before the increase in S swell occurs although we may see a modest bump in E/NE-E swell from the fetch moving southwards from the South Pacific. Models show the fetch moving quickly through the swell window so keep expectations pegged low, but we should see a few 2-3ft sets later Fri. 

This weekend (Sep 2-3)

The proximate fetch moves away quickly by Sat, leaving a light SW flow early, tending S’ly during the day without much strength. We should see a moderate amount of mid period S swell in the water, fairly uninspiring to be honest, although mixed in with some workable E swell we may see some A frame beachies if you can get out of the S’ly quarter winds.  Expect S swell to peak in NENSW in the 4ft range, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD with E swell adding 2-3ft into the mix. Both swell sources look like they will ease late in the day.

Winds drop right out for Sun as another troughy area moves across the state, with light morning offshores and weak a’noon seabreezes likely. The low pressure trough briefly exhibits a SSE fetch in the central Tasman and this should be enough to supply some 2-3ft surf through Sun, mixed with a small signal of E’ly swell to 2ft+. With the more favourable winds and small combo swell there should be some fun peaks around on the beachies. 

Next week (Sep 4 onwards)

Successive model runs have downgraded the potential fetch out of Cook Strait later this weekend, so we’re looking at a small S/SE swell signal for Mon with N’ly winds developing.

SE-E/SE swell from Cook Strait then arrives Tues and lingers into Wed but size is more likely to top out around 3ft, although we’ll still have Fri to finesse size and timing. N’ly winds look likely for Tues, with a troughy, shallow S’ly change possible  for Wed. 

Small bits and pieces then pad out the rest of the week under current modelling, which we will take with a grain of salt considering the troughiness which tends to place lower confidence in longer range model runs.

Longer term and there is frontal activity passing into the Tasman later next week which suggests some small S swell potential for Sep 9/10.
GFS continues to hint at instability in the Coral Sea or near South Pacific but considering the recent history of downgraded forecasts we’ll keep froth very much contained and see how it looks on Fri. 

Seeya then.