South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 4th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small SE swell leftovers Tues with freshening N/NW-N’ly winds
• S’ly change Wed with a small pulse of S swell PM
• Freshening N’lies Thurs/Fri with some workable NE windswell, favouring MNC for size
• Small amounts of E/NE tradewind swell Thurs/Fri, favouring SEQLD
• Strong S’ly winds for the weekend with plenty of S swell expected
• More S swell, potentially sizey in the medium term next week- stay tuned for updates

Recap

S-S/SE swell came in pretty hot over the weekend, at the top end or over f/cast expectations as a low pressure trough hovered in the Tasman and E’ly swell from a tropical trough made landfall. Sat saw 3ft+ surf across S exposed breaks in NENSW, a notch smaller in SEQLD  with clean morning conditions under offshore winds before winds tended S’ly. Sunday was roughly similar in size with nice clean conditions extending well into the midday hours before light SE-NE breezes kicked in. Today has seen a general reduction in size from the S’ly quarter with 2-3ft surf, (2ft in SEQLD) with E swell in the mix to similar sizes. Early conditions were cleanish around morning storms with a mod NE flow kicking in during the day. 

A few chunky beachies on the weekend with patches of real quality

This week (Sep 4-8)

The weekend’s low pressure system is still lingering near New Zealand, with the merger of the low with a tropical derived low not really happening. As a result the expected Cook Strait fetch isn’t as well aligned or juicy and will only be a minor swell source for the region. A pair of fronts from tomorrow race away quickly with a small spike of S swell expected. The following system expected over the weekend now looks much stronger and under current modelling is expected to be a significant source of sizey S swell, potentially with several large pulses. Lets look at the details.

In the short run we’ll see overnight N’lies tend N-NW tomorrow as an inland trough and front approaches then passes through Bass Strait. Small leftovers are on offer, in the 2ft range, with an occ 3footer at S facing beaches in NENSW. A small E/NE-NE infeed into the trough offers up a modest increase in short period NE windswell, which may offer some workable 2 footers on the backbeaches. Not much elsewhere.

The trough brings an overnight or early morning S’ly change (late morning and S-SE north of Cape Moreton). Near gales out of Bass Strait and proximate to the South Coast Tues should see a small but distinct S swell spike for later Wed across NENSW S facing beaches. Nothing amazing but worth some 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches. Elsewhere it will be a small blend of leftover SE-E/SE swell and E/NE swell offering up 2ft surf.

Winds turn N’ly again and this flow is likely to freshen through Thurs as a complex trough/front and low complex approach from the W. That’s likely to see some workable NE windswell develop Thurs a’noon in the 2ft range, a notch bigger on the MNC. E’ly tradewinds look to develop through the Coral Sea, and this should add some 2ft energy through the a’noon, a notch bigger on the Sunshine Coast.

A similar mix of E and NE swells is on offer for Fri, with the MNC likely to see more NE windswell and areas north of the border seeing more E’ly tradewind swell. Mod/fresh N-NNE winds are expected with the MNC possibly seeing a late S’ly change as a front/low start to push E of Tasmania, hopefully at a strength we haven’t see for a while. 

This weekend (Sep 9-10)

Expect revisions as we move through the week but under current modelling the front/low/trough combo forms a a long angled fetch in the lower Tasman as the low moves away, then a proximate fetch of near gales to the NSW Coast as a long trough and low form in the Tasman. With near gales near the coast (likely fresh/strong SW inshore) we should see quite a rapid rise in S swell Sat, likely up into the 3-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 3ft in SEQLD. Protected or semi-protected spots only under fresh S’ly winds. Small amounts of E’ly tradewind swell to 2-3ft pad out wave heights in SEQLD but will quickly be lost amongst the building sea state in NENSW.

Plenty of energy still into Sun with fresh S-SSE winds, and size in the 3-5ft range, smaller in SEQLD. Expect revisions through the week. 

Next week (Sep 11 onwards)

Another blast of S swell likely early next week, possibly sizey, as another front enters the Tasman, reinforcing the existing long trough/low and potentially forming a new low. Under EC modelling the reinforced low sits in the Tasman, offering up elevated wave heights for most of next week, likely peaking Tues/Wed in the 5-6ft range, smaller in SEQLD.

GFS has a slightly less persistent system, with the new front bringing a large pulse of S swell Tues/Wed into the 4-5ft range and a slow easing into Thurs. 

With broad model agreement odds are firming we’ll see a significant S swell event this weekend and into early/mid next week with plenty of S’ly wind. Still a ways to go though before this storm forms, so check back in on Wed and we’ll run the ruler over it again.

Seeya then.