South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 28th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, long range E/SE swell Tues, supplies a few inconsistent sets
• Small, but fun E’ly tradewind swells persist this week, boosting a notch into the weekend as depression drifts down from South Pacific
• Building S swell Fri as low pressure forms in Tasman
• Plenty of S-S/SE swell this weekend, favouring NENSW for size
• Potential for SE swell next week as low drifts towards NZ
• More S swell in the medium term

Recap

Small swells over the weekend with Sat barely reaching 2ft at the best swell magnets across the region. Winds were light/offshore early before tending mod S-SE through the day. Sunday had a little more size, especially south of the border where some long period S swell added a bit of bulk to a pretty lightweight swell mix. All told, some 2-3ft sets across NENSW swell magnets, smaller in SEQLD. Another small blend today, although S swell has perked up a notch south of the border to supply some 3ft sets, with SEQLD seeing a smaller blend of E/NE tradewind swell and a very inconsistent signal of E/SE swell from the South Pacific, topping out with 2ft sets. Light offshore winds in the morning are now tending SE-E’ly.

Small, mixed bag of beachies to start the week

This week (Aug 28- Sep 1)

We’ve got a reasonably strong high (1032hPa) sitting in the Tasman, with a weak tradewind fetch, slowly drifting NE and weakening as it does so over the next 36-48hrs with the last of a series of powerful storms tracking across the lower Tasman. In the absence of a high pressure ridge we’ll see increasing N’lies across most of the Eastern Seaboard from temperate to sub-tropical regions. A trough will extend along the East coast before a front through the latter half of the week brings vigorous S’ly winds by Fri. The trough is expected to move offshore and merge with a more tropical derived depression to form a large trough of low pressure in the Tasman over the weekend. This has been a feature of synoptic prognostic charts for a few weeks now, with forecasts generally tending to weaken and fall apart as the event unfolds. Lets hope this one comes to fruition to deliver some chunky S-SE swell. 

In the short run we’ll see another small blend tomorrow, at least a smidge bigger than today. Small trade-wind and long E/SE swell should up the baseline to 2ft+ in SEQLD, with some added long period S swell favouring NENSW supplying 3ft sets at S facing beaches. Clean conditions early with variable/offshore winds before N’lies kick up to mod/fresh strength in the a’noon.

Similar winds for Wed, likely boosted a notch as a trough/front approaches from the SW. Similar small blend of Easterly quadrant swells close range (tradewind) and long range supplying some 2ft sets, with a few S swell sets to 3ft in NENSW, easing during the day. Winds are likely to have a more N’ly bias at dawn compared to Tues with leftover N’ly scarring affecting most beaches. 

Thursday looks interesting. A trough approaches, along with a frontal system from the south. Depending on how the trough behaves we are likely to see a period of light NW flow before the trough advances north and moves offshore, bringing freshening S’lies which are likely to reach the MNC by mid-a’noon. We’ll finesse timing on Wed. We’re likely to see a mixed bag in the water, with easing NE swell and some E’ly swell where there are broad E’ly infeeds located in the Northern Tasman and South Pacific. Not much size for the region but we should see some 2-3ft surf, so if winds behave expect some fun beachies for the morning with a possible shift to small peelers on the Points in areas subject top the S’ly change.

By Friday the trough is expected to deepen in the Tasman, anchored by an advancing high in the Bight. That should see freshening S’ly winds and a fetch extending proximate to the NSW Coast down past Tasmania. Under this scenario we’ll be expecting a  building trend in new S swell from lunchtime on the MNC, later in the a’noon up to the border , provisionally up into the 3-4ft range during the a’noon. We’ll see how it looks on Wed for size and timing.

This weekend (Sep 2-3)

Plenty of mid period S swell for Sat, under current modelling, with size in the 4-5ft range likely in NENSW, smaller 3ft at SEQLD S exposed breaks. E’ly swell from a southwards moving fetch in the South Pacific slot should provide some quality surf in the 2 to occ. 3ft range.  Winds should remain mod/fresh SSW-S through the morning but if the low pressure trough forms a broad surface low as expected and moves away to the East, we’ll see winds ease off through the day. 

Looks like easing swells for Sun, although models are divergent so we may see substantial revisions through the week. Winds should improve, tending light SW to W/NW under a light troughy flow with an a’noon Seabreeze. We’ll pencil in 2-3ft of S swell easing through the day, with the proviso we may see an upgrade if the European model comes to fruition which suggests a reinforcement from the SSE-SE through the day. Also in the mix will be E’ly swell to 2-3ft from the South Pacific- a bit slow, but good when they come.

Next week (Sep 4 onwards)

We’ll have to see what happens with the low pressure in the Tasman, but swell from this source should still have some legs into next week. GFS suggests a nice fetch out of Cook Strait forming on the weekend (see below) as the low drifts towards NZ, with some tasty swell from the SE potentially in the 3ft range Tues into Wed.

Mon is likely to see a mix of small S-SSE swell depending on the evolution of the low. We’re also likely to see some E/SE swell from the infeed into the depression drifting down from the South Pacific. 

Winds look tricky under a troughy pattern, although N’lies are most likely Mon.

An advancing front will bring a wind change sometime Tues/Wed.

That front is tied to a complex low system passing under the continent into the lower Tasman mid next week. It’s likely to bring S swell pulses later next week, so check back in on Wed and we’ll see how they are shaping up for size and timing. 

Seeya then.