Next week looks even more La Nina influenced than this week, as a strong high moving at an unseasonably southwards latitude moves into the lower Tasman and directs a strong onshore flow from Wed onwards.
Primary tabs
A front is bringing another vigorous S’ly change through on Mon and a trough, just in advance of the front is now moving northwards, with a small low pressure system expected to form off the North Coast, near the QLD border overnight or early tomorrow.
Highly dynamic week next week kicks off Mon with a NE/SW angled trough expected to form offshore from the top of the Hunter coast, or lower Mid North Coast. That will see strong S’ly quarter winds work their way North through Mon.
We’re now well into the very mobile Spring pattern identified in Mon’s notes. Weak high pressure is currently over NSW and in the process of migrating into the Tasman sea and a series of fronts tied to a complex area of low pressure SE and SW of Tasmania are lined up to sweep across the SE of the continent and into the Tasman sea.
This week is looking much more like a classic spring pattern. The ingredients are weak, mobile high pressure at sub-tropical latitudes and a series of troughs and weaker fronts tied a complex area of low pressure in the Southern Tasman and near Southern Ocean.
Nonetheless, there’s a nicely aimed fetch of ENE/NE strong winds located in the Northern Tasman sea into sub-tropical latitudes and a more distant tradewind fetch out near New Caledonia.
Weekend is still looking good, with NE/ENE swell being generated by the slow moving fetch feeding into the trough, extending out towards New Caledonia and a basically W’ly wind pattern.
The high generates a broad coverage of E’ly tradewinds in the Southern and Eastern Coral Sea and then a more focused fetch of ENE winds as it becomes concentrated into an offshore trough.
Typically tradewind swells improve in quality as the fetch “matures” and wavelengths draw out. This tendency will be mitigated by freshening N’lies but does offer good prospects for backbeaches throughout the entire region.
This allows a broad, but weak area of Tradewinds to develop through the Coral Sea, with just enough coverage in the crucial area SW of New Caledonia down to the Fraser Coast to allow some useful tradewind swell to build through Tues and Wed.