South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 9th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Light winds across the MNC Thurs, with easing surf across the region
• Small and windy Fri
• Large surf developing over the weekend, but windy once again
• Monday looks great with strong SE swell and light winds
• Another pulse Tues with light winds
• Easing surf from mid next week

Recap

Strong swell from the SE-E/SE favoured NENSW for size with 6ft sets yesterday, winding back a notch today. SEQLD saw smaller 3-5ft surf, with a slight easing today. Winds have been on the improve as the strong ridge slackens with light SE winds yesterday and a true offshore breeze this morning opening up a few more options than the Points which have been the pick of it for quite a while. Plenty more surf ahead, read on for details. 

Plenty of strong peaks for the dawny

This week (Feb 8  - 11)

As noted on Mon, the impressive ridge pattern has now broken down, with a weak high pressure cell located over sub-tropical NSW leading to a regime of lighter SE winds, which will freshen Fri as the ridge re-strengthens. Another strong ridge is expected to establish Fri with (another!) tropical low drifting south from the South Pacific later this week and over the weekend down the Tasman Sea pipe. This will provide another round of swells from the E/NE to SE, albeit looking a half notch weaker than the current round.

Short term and the trend is downwards- some leftover 3-4ft sets early, with a steeper  ramp down in the a'noon, leaving a few 2-3ft sets on the open beaches. Early light winds will favour the open beaches. Freshening SE breezes are then expected across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW through the day from a building ridge across the western Tasman Sea, although they will be several notches lower than the previous windy regime.

The end of the working week sees an increased confidence on the wind forecast- stronger S’lies. The trough drifts north and the leading edge of a new strong high pressure ridge starts to quickly establish. Winds may start lighter S’ly early, but that won’t last long as they quickly kick up over 15 knots and then tend fresh SE. 

Expect a bit of E/NE swell in the water from a fetch of E to NE winds cradling the tropical low over the last couple of days. It’s not a particularly strong fetch but it is well aimed and has been persistent over 36-48 hrs. That should see surf in the 2-3ft range at spots exposed to the swell, which will also be those best placed to shelter from the wind. By the a’noon a bit of short period S to S/SE wind swell will be in the mix, not exceeding 2-3ft in SEQLD, reaching a more solid 3-4ft in NENSW. A few surfable options Fri, but be ready for that wind. It’s another day where the Points will be offering the only clean options and they will be much smaller than the open, exposed stretches.

This weekend (Feb 12 - 13)

We’re still on tropical cyclone watch for a tropical depression drifting southwards from between Port Vila (Vanuatu) and the western side of New Caledonia (see below).

First up, S to S/SE  winds are going to be fresh, possibly strong Sat, and that will be the prime determinant of surf quality. 

A building trend will be in place Sat, primarily from the ridge that develops between a strong high and the cyclone/low as it begins the journey south. This long fetch of S/SE winds is better positioned for NENSW, and that will see surf build into the 5-6ft range in NENSW, smaller 3-5ft in SEQLD. You’ll have to take a size hit to get out of the wind, with smaller surf wrapping into the Points.

Some longer period E/NE swell will start too show from lunchtime but it’s wise to keep expectations pegged for this. It’s a short fetch, that looks quite mobile once it peeks out behind the swell shadow of New Caledonia. Expect a few Lully 3ft sets, likely hard to pick out amongst the prevailing sea state and SE swell.

The ridge looks ease a little  through Sunday, a result of the interaction between the high and south-wards moving cyclone or depression being much more mobile than this weeks pattern. Thus there’s good odds for a lighter SW to S flow Sunday morning on the Southern Gold Coast, probably not enough to clean up the prevailing sea state from Saturdays strong S to SE winds. Through the morning winds should tend  back to mod/fresh SE with the Points once again being the only clean options.

Surf wise things should be very interesting. Longer period E/NE swells from the impressive N/NE fetch on the low/cyclones eastern flank should peak Sunday with the potential for 3-4ft sets. Odds for this improve with S’ly latitude, it’s a swell better aimed at the MNC and further south, but the periods are impressive so it’s definitely worth working with.

The strong SE swell also continues with mid period swell holding in the 5-6ft range in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. A building trend is likely from this source through the a’noon as the fetch is enhanced through Fri/Sat by the southwards track of the cyclone.

It’s another weekend with plenty of swell, (and wind) favouring the Points. Those looking to escape the crowds will have to seek out semi-sheltered options and lower standards for wave quality. 

Next week (Feb 14 onwards)

Models now showing the remnants of the cyclone undergoing extra-tropical transition as it slides towards New Zealand. 

Monday looks fantastic, with light winds and a strong signal of SE swell with surf in the 5-6ft range. If you can wrangle a day off, Monday looks a great day for it. Expect a light SW to S flow tending to light/mod E’ly sea breezes.

By Tuesday that light flow will remain, still likely to have a W’ly component early. Leftover, easing surf in the 3-5ft range is expected to be reinforced by another pulse of E/SE groundswell as the remnants of the low/cyclone supercharge a gale force fetch out of Cook Strait Sun/Mon. That should see surf build again later Tues PM into the 3-5ft range in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD.

A quieter period then pads out the rest of the week, with easing swells and lighter SE winds.  Small levels of E’ly swell should hold surf in the 2-3ft range for the rest of next week.

A S’ly change Fri may have surf potential as a trough, and cold front push into the Tasman. Models are mixed but a surface low forming off the South Coast is one outcome. S swell off some kind is likely by next weekend. We’ve got enough to keep us occupied for now, so check back Fri for a fresh update before the weekend.