South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 11th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small and windy Fri, small waves on the SEQLD Points
• Pulse of E/NE groundswell from TC Dovi Sat, easing quickly through Sun
• Fresh S to SE winds all weekend, with short period SE swell Sat, improving in size and quality Sun, favouring Points
• Monday looks great with strong E/SE swell and light winds
• Easing swell Tues with light winds
• Last pulse of SE swell Wed, with light winds
• Small surf Thurs/Fri next week with light winds

Recap

Our active La Niña summer continues. Yesterday saw leftover swell punch above its weight slightly with surf in the 3-4ft range in NENSW only ease into the 3ft range during the day with light SE winds. Surf was slightly smaller in SEQLD. Today has seen a slight decrease in NENSW, offset by a more E’ly angle in SEQLD. Light winds early are now tending S/SE and freshening, reaching strong winds levels by this a’noon and evening. 

Some clean little peelers as the tide drops

Morning offshores this week have had an autumnal feel

This weekend (Feb 12 - 13)

The headline news is TC Dovi, which formed north-east of New Caledonia Wed a’noon and is moving SW at about 12 knots inside the Coral Sea. At 5am this morning TC Dovi was about 730 nautical miles E/NE of the Queensland border. That puts it in our swell window and although Dovi is currently Cat 3 it’s surf potential is limited by the compact fetch and expected increased speed of movement over the next 24 hrs. Essentially the compact fetch of hurricane force winds will “outrun” the area of swell production, limiting the amount of swell energy it can generate.

Concurrently, a long NW-SE angled high pressure ridge is being energised by the south-wards moving cyclone, forming an impressive fetch of SE winds through the central Tasman Sea. This SE fetch will be the main swell source for the region, with a smaller E/NE cyclone swell proper, overshadowed by this stronger swell. 

Saturday will be dominated by strong S’ly winds, with only a brief window of lighter winds inshore before winds crank up in excess of 20 knots. Expect a slightly undersized start in the 2-3ft range before a building trend in both short period SE wind swell, reaching the 3-4ft range, and longer period E/NE swell which will see chunky though Lully 4-5ft sets. This will be the cyclone swell from Dovi and it should be easily noticeable by it’s extra period and direction.

It’s pretty much a Points only deal, unless you can tolerate strong side/onshore winds. 

Wind will be the main factor Sunday as well, with fresh S/SE winds through the morning, slowly backing down during the a’noon as the high pressure ridge eases and  TC Dovi undergoes extra-tropical transition and impacts the North Island. 

Surf will change character  Sun, as the pulse of E/NE groundswell from TC Dovi eases back in the mix and there prevailing SE to E/SE swell becomes the dominant swell train. This should see stronger surf in NENSW in the 4-6ft range, grading smaller 3-5ft in SEQLD. This will be a lower period source so expect less size getting into the more sheltered Points. A slight muscling up in longer period E/SE swell is expected in the a’noon, generated by the initial stages of extra-tropical transition of TC Dovi (more details below).

Next week (Feb 14 onwards)

Models now showing the remnants of the cyclone undergoing extra-tropical transition as it slides towards New Zealand with areas of severe SE gales developing on the south-western quadrant. These winds aren’t perfectly aligned for the region but there’s enough strength in the fetch for plenty of incoming energy. The tail end of the ridge also activates strongly through the lower Tasman over the weekend, adding to the incoming swell energy. In short, there’s still a lot of incoming swell trains being generated for early next week.

Monday still looks good, especially for the Points. A light morning S to SW flow is becoming more likely and E/SE swell in the 4-6ft range should see a wide swathe of pumping surf across the regional Points. Some bigger 6ft+ sets are more likely in NENSW, with smaller 3-5ft surf more probable in SEQLD. Through the day those winds will tend SE, staying light/mod, and a slight easing trend will set in. 

That easing trend becomes more established Tues, with the general SE flow becoming lighter as the high pressure in the Tasman drifts more NE, relaxing pressure gradients across the region in a way that has been rare this summer. That gives good odds for a morning land breeze, with leftover 3-4ft surf, easing through the day. It should be the first day beach breaks come back online across the region, hopefully with some favourable sandbanks on offer after the swell bombardment of the last few weeks.

A last pulse of E/SE swell is expected Wed, generated by gales out of Cook Strait. This fetch now looks a lot more constrained in time and space compared to Wednesdays notes, so we’re only looking at a few 3ft+ sets through Wed, with another day of light winds expected.  Another good day for the beachies is on offer if sandbanks co-operate.

Longer term and it looks like one more day of small, clean leftovers Thurs before a S’ly change potentially late Fri or early Sat with some small S’ly swell expected for Fri and next weekend. No doubt we will see some revisions on that as next week rolls on.

Check back Mon for the latest updates.

Plenty to occupy the short term so enjoy that and have a great weekend!