We’re in the middle of the blocking pattern which is coming in a little weaker than modelled. High pressure (1025hPa) sits in the Central Tasman directing a fairly insipid SE flow through most of the Central/Northern Tasman and extending into the Coral Sea. A long trough through the Coral Sea and South Pacific with embedded low pressure centres is not tightening the pressure gradient to the extent modelled. As a result surf is coming in at the low end of f/cast expectations, and this soft trend is expected to continue.

Charts have looked great all week with a low pressure system drifting in from the Coral Sea inside the North Island but the bad news is the low is now expected to track down the outside of the North Island with a major downgrade in swell potential.

While we won’t get the full payload of S’ly swell from this system as the system gets shunted SW as it enters the swell window (NE would be ideal!) we’re still on track for a few usable S swell pulses this week mostly south of the border, with a trailing frontal system providing bigger S swell into and over the weekend.

Our Coral Sea low is now sitting just NE of Tasmania where it has merged with an exiting interior low to form a large, slow moving low-pressure gyre. Troughs are still snaking across Australia with a long trough line extending from the low pressure gyre through inland NSW up towards QLD and then into the Northern Territory, expected to move offshore through today. More inland troughs approach the coast during the rest of this week, driving an unstable but basically NW’ly to W’ly biased wind flow across the f/cast region through the end of the week with easing swells.