South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 15th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• E’ly swells from Ex TC Gabrielle slowly easing Wed with easing SE winds
• Fun, clean leftovers Thurs/Fri with morning offshores likely
• Small SSE swell pulse later Fri, extends into Sat with good morning winds
• Easing surf Sun with NE winds
• Small, mixed bag into early next week with variable winds-depending on troughs
• Tropics remaining active- checking tradewind fetch next week and possible low pressure- stay tuned for updates

Recap

Pumping surf yesterday from ex TC Gabrielle across NENSW with solid 6ft+ sets, 8ft at times. SEQLD saw much smaller 3-5ft surf. Winds were light for the most part, tending light/mod SE through the day. Today has seen a more established SE wind as a trough of low pressure moves off the SEQLD coast. Size is now on the downwards trend with 4ft surf in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. 

Smaller, but still end to end sets on the Points

This week (Feb 15-17)

Ex TC Gabrielle (SS) is now on the eastern side of the North Island with swell generating winds also in the swell shadow of the North Island. A weak (1017HPa) high is covering most of the Tasman Sea with an active monsoon trough still supplying plenty of tropical moisture and instability across Northern Australia. Remnants of a trough near the South Island have set up a weak, off-axis fetch back into the Tasman Sea. It all spells a much quieter period of surf ahead. 

In the short run and there’s not much change to the f/cast outlook. Early offshore winds are expected for NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast (S-SE on the Sunshine Cast) and will tend SE at moderate strength in a typical Summer flow. Inconsistent 3ft+ sets early will taper off through the day, likely ending up less than 2ft during the a’noon.

Similar winds to end the working week- likely a notch weaker through the a’noon as pressure gradients ease. Small leftovers to 2-3ft in the morning get a minor boost in the late a’noon as S/SE swell from the fetch near the South Island makes landfall. Compared to model runs Mon it looks even weaker and more poorly aligned today so keep expectations pegged appropriately low. A few 2ft sets, with some 2-3ft surf at the more reliable swell magnets under light SE-E winds. Looks like a nice a’noon for a wave.

This weekend (Feb 18-19)

Small but fun surf from the SE Sat morning is expected under light W-NW breezes, with winds freshening through the day from the NE. Don’t expect too much size or consistency as these South Island swells usually under-perform in the sub-tropics but we should see a few 2-3ft sets at S oriented breaks, smaller 2ft or less at SEQLD magnets.

More light NW to N winds Sunday morning with NE winds kicking in later in the day, strongest in NENSW where they’ll likely reach 20 knots. A small mixed bag of mostly dying SSE swell offers up a few 2 footers, trending to minor NE windswell in the a’noon.

Next week (Feb 20 onwards)

Not much surf on offer through the start of next week. Light winds Mon morning turn NE as a trough approaches but stalls on the lower Mid North Coast with marginal 1-2ft surf on offer. 

Same again Tuesday.

From mid next week a large high slides SE of Tasmania into a dominant Summer position, with a secondary high cell located further north maintaining a ridge along the sub-tropical coast. 

Couple of options open up as it does so. We may see a slow moving trough linger off the South Coast, potentially setting up a proximate E’ly fetch aimed more at the South Coast and Tasmania generating onshore winds but some E swell, with smaller  E swell on offer further north. 

More likely, small E swell is likely to develop from E’ly trade-winds setting up through the Southern Coral and Tasman Seas and finally, we may see a fetch develop out of Cook Strait later next week with potential for SE swell into next weekend.

We’ll flag all those for now, and come back Fri for the inevitable revisions. 

Check ya then.