South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 22nd Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Several low/mid period E'ly swell sources contributing OK peaky beachies for the rest of this week
• Onshore winds in general though Wed AM should see workable conditions
• Most coasts becoming wind affected later Wed/Thurs/Fri
• Long period S'ly swell across Northern NSW from late Tues into Wed, though expect large variations in size across the region
• Small mix of swells this weekend with clean mornings across NENSW/Southern Gold Coast
• Active period in the tropics but surf potential still uncertain due to model divergence- check back Fri for updates

Recap

Slow rising E’ly tradewind swells have been with us since yesterday, favouring SEQLD for most size with surf reaching 2-3ft by yesterday a’noon, a notch smaller in NENSW under a light/mod SE-E flow. Winds have increased today with mod/fresh SE winds and size extending more evenly across the region, topping out around 3ft. Traces of S swell are evident across NENSW S facing beaches but quality is very poor due to onshore winds.

Few small peelers on the Points is about the best of it

This week (Feb 22 - 24)

Strong high pressure (1035 hPa) is now moving SE of Tasmania with an embedded trough along the advancing ridge ramping up wind speeds from the SSE-SE into the 20kts+ range. Conditions should settle as the high moves into the Tasman and weakens and the ridge relaxes through the end of the week. The high is augmenting an existing SE-ESE tradewind fetch through the Northern Tasman and Coral Seas and maintaining small E-SE swell.

In the short run and options will be limited with mod/fresh SE winds and short period E/SE-E swell in the 3ft range on offer. Protected Points  will have fun peelers with onshore surf available across beachies and slightly cleaner options at semi-proteced spots. 

Friday looks a little better with easing winds, although the synoptic flow is still likely to overpower any morning land breeze apart from the far southern Gold Coast around dawn. Otherwise, expect mod SE winds all day. We should see a peak in short period SE and E swell trains in the 3-4ft range through Fri, favouring Points for quality but don’t expect much size down the inside sections where low wave periods will not favour wave refraction. All in all, a few fun peelers but more onshore stuff across open stretches. 

This weekend (Feb 25 - 26)

Pressure gradients slacken through Fri into Sat allowing a morning land breeze for NENSW up into the Southern Gold Coast with S-SE winds persisting across most of SEQLD. SE-E swells hold in the 3-4ft range with a bit of reinforcing SSE energy from a fetch near the South Island. Expect lump and bump across open beaches with clean conditions confined to the Points. A downwards trend is likely through the a’noon. 

Morning winds should be light Sun, from the SW across most of the region apart from the Sunshine Coast before tending to light/mod SE winds in the a’noon. We’ll see more of the same E’ly trade swell to 2-3ft with a reinforcing pulse of E/SE swell from a Cook Strait fetch Fri, which just keeps things humming along in the 2-3ft range through the late a’noon. Again, nothing fantastic but it’ll keep things surfable for a shortboard with more likelihood of surfable beachbreaks in the morning.

Next week (Feb 27 onwards)

Wow, lots of action on the charts next week and lots of model divergence, as well as poor run to run consistency. Therefore, expect plenty of revisions on Fri.

Mon looks like light SE-ESE winds (morning land breezes likely) with a mix of leftover SE swell and tradewind swell , to 3ft.  More of the same is expected Tues, with winds tending more E-E/NE.

GFS suggests a cyclone forming between Vanuatu and Fiji and quickly moving south into the South Pacific slot, squeezing onto a pre-existing tradewind fetch. Current modelling has this system tracking quite fast, suggesting a small increase in E/NE swell from the pre-existing trade fetch mid-week and a quick up and down pulse of E swell later next week, with very low confidence on size and timing.

EC suggests this tropical area of low pressure remains more broad and undefined, with moderate amounts of trade swell continuing to filter down from the tropics.

Both models are suggesting a small low to form in a trough/front Tues/Wed next week off the NSW South Coast- with a likely sharp increase in short range S swell either later Thurs , or Fri with size initially pegged in the 3-4ft range.

More action seems baked into the medium term in the tropics as a cross-equatorial flow and a monsoon trough extending from the Arafura Sea out into the Coral Sea and South Pacific Convergence Zone spawn tropical depressions along the trough line. Stay tuned as we monitor these for surf potential into the first week of March. 

Check back Fri for the latest and a last fine-tune for the weekend.