Pumping surf from TC Gabrielle but tricky winds will require lateral thinking
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 10th Feb)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Strong, unusual N/NE groundswell building Fri (mainly SE Qld and Far Northern NSW), easing through Sat
- Strong building E'ly swell through Friday; delayed across southern regions
- Large E'ly swells Sat thru' Tues; tricky winds at times as trough hovers about the North Coast
- SE winds Sat, mostly NE Sun with variable winds in the morning, S change Mon for areas South of Yamba, extending slowly through rest of region Tues/Wed
- Small mixed bag towards the end of next week
Recap
Small mixed bag yesterday with mostly E’ly swell showing in the 2-3ft range, biased towards 2ft and light/mod Ely winds. Today has seen similar winds, tending more SE at stronger speeds north of the border. Swell has been mostly 3ft, with some energy from the NNE-NE reported, especially at NENSW N facing breaks. Small Point surf was on the menu for the most part with an a’noon increase in size now being observed as stronger swell trains from the NNE-NE and E fill in.
QLD secret spot enjoying the swell angle
Rare N/NE swell squaring up in Coolangatta Bay
This weekend (Feb 11-12)
No real change weekend wind f/cast. Severe tropical cyclone (Cat3) Gabrielle is currently tracking SE at about 21 knots and is located about 413 nm NE of Brisbane. Early incarnations of the TC as it was drifting SW showed a fetch of storm force to severe gale NE winds around the NE quadrant which is producing a rare NNE-NE long period swell. Reef and land shadowing make this swell extremely flukey, even though it’s already showing in places along the QLD and NENSW Coast. Through Sat we will continue to see some rare spots (facing NE) pick up some 3-4ft sets during the morning, easing during the a’noon.
Otherwise, expect increasing E quadrant swell through the day, more noticeable through the a’noon as sets build into the 4-6ft range under SE winds.
Winds now look trickier Sun, as a trough makes it’s way up the NSW coast. A morning offshore flow is highly likely W-NW in most places, before winds tend N-NW then N/NE and freshen. That will confine surfing to northern corners/backbeaches and few will handle the size.
With TC Gabrielle entering the wide open Eastern swell window through today with E/NE-E gales on the southern flank we’ll see these swells continue to build through Sun. Building steadily into the 6-8ft range through the post-lunch hours with some 8ft+ sets likely at NENSW backbeaches.
Next week (Feb 13 onwards)
Mon morning and TC Gabrielle is likely to have undergone extra-tropical transition and be a large, low pressure system near the North Island. It’s SE movement will put a slight lid on wave heights (compared to a retrograding SW movement) but we’re still looking at very solid surf for Mon, in the 6-8ft range across most of the region. Sundays trough stalls on the North Coast, likely between Coffs and Yamba, with S-SE winds south of there, variable winds around the trough and N’ly winds likely north of Byron across the border into SEQLD.
Flukey winds continue through Tues under current modelling as a high pushes south of Victoria with the trough hovering about the North Coast, possibly forming a small low during the day. Thats going to continue to determine surface locations with strong E swell from ex TC Gabrielle continuing in the 6ft+ range. It’s likely S-SE winds will extend over the border at some point during the day- we’ll finesse that on Mon, or in the comments.
By Wed we’ll be on the shoulder of this cyclone swell with a slow ramp down in size through the day. Expect a few 5-6ft sets in the morning, easing back to the 4-5ft range during the day. Winds should straighten up as high pressure moves into the Tasman- possibly seeing a morning land breeze before tending light SE in the a’noon. S’ly fetches around troughs in the lower Tasman look to supply some short/mid period S swell in the 2-3ft range during Wed, opening up potential peakier beachbreak options in conjunction with the easing E swell. Likely, swell will still be too strong for the beachies.
Through the rest of next week we’ll see a mixed bag of easing, residual E-E/SE swell from what leftover fetch protudes off the west coast of the North island and likely some NE windswell possibly as early as Friday as the high drifts across the Tasman and N’ly winds increase off the NSW coast in response to an approaching frontal system.
We may see some S swell from this front as it pushes into the Tasman early week 20/2 but it’s too early have any confidence in size or specifics.
Check back Mon for the latest and good luck negotiating this upcoming cyclone swell.
Have a great weekend!
Comments
Lots of plan B thinking required.
Sets are 4-5ft on the Tweed now (though very inco), the unusual N/NE angle is messing with my usual markers. Sidewinders down the beach though, between the otherwise standard E'ly lines.
Any idea what wind to expect tomorrow morning?
NSW should see fairly light winds for a lot of the time when this swell is arriving .
It could have been a lot worse.
Finally some swell.
Tweed Offshore buoy now showing the new 14sec N/NE swell, picked up by North Straddie (Offshore) a few hours ago.
do you expect noosa to drop overnight as it moves south?
Just had a look at the cams, Noosa looks worse crowd wise than snapper!!
And that’s only the inside…
Have you checked the greenmount cam? I was just thinking more crowded than noosa cam?
Greeny cam is insane!
Worst I’ve seen in years if ever.
That is one of the saddest things I’ve ever seen.
Talk about a Great Pacific Garbage Patch.
The swell angle has handfuls to every wave.
I will never understand paddling out to that. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
lolwut
Just a few crew employing a bit of drift theory.
Nice one
wow that is insane
400 surfers getting a few in after work before the crowd doubles tomorrow .
Thanks swellnet , for the new hi-res cameras at byron , you can even see the guano on Julian Rocks .
When the surf head check becomes uncountable.
Yep. Another swell that’ll I’ll only ever surf via the cams.. hoping the surf forecast is correct for Sunday morning here on the Sunny Coast. Could be a goer on the opens if so.
Agree, but think it won't clean up much in such a short period.
Very Pretty
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-2...
Burleigh Snapper and Currimbin look terrible is the swell direction wrong for them?
Yep. ESE to SE is the best direction for Gold Coast points
I think you mean SE quadrant Steve?
That crowd was brutal, particularly around the greenmount section where it started to barrel, mainly a very young crew and once your in the barrel that’s when they will burn you without a second thought. It was the most crowded I’ve ever surfed it and glad to survive it with board and body intact.
250 young surfers plus their parents in town for the tweed coast pro
Hey freak, what made you want to paddle out in that? I'm going deep here into the mind of a mad man. Tell us
Paddled out at kirra first at about 3.30 qld time and couldn’t buy a wave so on the walk around kept going all the way to snapper. I actually got about 6 waves sitting wide off the rock but very short waves , only 2-3 turns. Then headed down to greenmount and got burnt every wave , it was madness alright and nobody was blowing up , just excepting the madness. One wave I had to really delay my bottom turn as no where to go but straight over about 10 kids, I managed to get around the section and squeeked into a barrel only to have a young lady burn me , she actually turned around and looked at me and smiled knowing I now had no chance of making it .
It’s worse when they turn around and smile knowing you had every chance of making it.
Haha went out burleigh 6ish to get a paddle in, not running down the bank well, def doesn't like the northerly swell
Hey Steve, why are the models undercalling the swell for sunday on gc. Models say 3 to 5 foot, but your notes predicting 6 to 8 foot.
I think we will be splitting the difference.
Forward speed of TC Gabrielle hasn't really slowed as expected which will shave size off the top end.
Still confident we will see 6ft sets.
Thanks mate
Very nice.
The big surprise is there's no one in his way.
For that section anyway.
Great pic Sprout.
Who is it that's been sat on the Ski shooting Sprout?
Busted mate , on my news feed a nick Carroll story on Noosa , what you doing on surfline
Still unusually N angled swell which is making a big size difference between N facing points and elsewhere.
Super fun Tweed beachies this morning, 3-4ft sets with rare bigger bomb, angle still NE here so doing weird things.
Just got out from an overlooked stretch...near the chaos...and am confident to call 4' '+' sets. I won't assign any other number, too controversial...just a '+'. Bit of a wait between the bombs.
Maybe sites like this and the multitude of cams has completely removed any sense of reading weather charts and knowing swell and wind conditions that work for spots up and down the coasts. That used to be the key, charts, knowing tidal differences at spots and wind options. I am 50 this year, grew up surfing from Agnes to D'Bah, we used to surf DI with nobody there and would be trying find people to surf with there. Now no more surfing unless it is a weekday with 2-3 foot beach break and good conditions with reasonable crowds. It is sad how there is no knack to scoring anymore and no effort by the punter other than the drive there, it's all provided in ya lap for a low price of $8.95/mth. Some of these pics are crazy. I hope the wave pools separate a few out, but reality is, a new sub set of surfer who likes the safety of a pool and a lifeguard on hand to dodge the sharks and hold your hand when you choked on some water. FUBAR! Does anyone in this forum feel any responsibility for perpetuating this?
I agree with you. It’s not only this site though, its modern society. Remember the days when you worked a new bank out, surfed it to yourself for a week or so before others cottoned on? Now you’re lucky to get more than a day - it’s the group messages and pricks that just can’t be quiet and feel the need to brag or surf with 5 of their mates.
Alas the horse has bolted I’m afraid.
Just need to get creative, enjoy the rare moments of gold you get when you do.
Oh and don’t paddle out at crowded points.
Yeah agree Ben
I had a cracking surf at central GC beachie with one other mate. 4foot and nice and peaky.. but of push aswell.. stoked!
Love how the photog states ‘ well the cats out of the bag’ - if it wasn’t already it would be now.
Yep what a boofhead.
There ya go deepinthegreenroom, you can still find it.
I can’t believe there was no one there. Been ridiculously crowded last few times this type of swell happened.
Oh they are there mate , was up the beach for a week , Thursday arvo only 15 cars on bank , driving home yesterday rough count 60 on bank about 40 more inside. Point not working sand isn’t just happening . Outside bank to my self most of the week but Friday it’s was at its best
Yep I got told over 100 cars today. Traffic insane. Angry vibe in water. Punch up yesterday. Skis and pros yesterday. Not sure if true but that’s what they told me. Your a selfish karnt instagraming this joint. Fkn look at me generation.
..
That is a much better aligned bank than previous years. Been watching it develop over last 18 months or more. More north facing than usual and further northward into the bay.
Amazes me the sand movement there.
Gabby on top of Norfolk atm ?
BOM says 10pm as a Cat 2
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65253.shtml
2ft on coffs coast if that
Real let down around here and i checked most spots. Shoulda gone out the 1st one instead of hoping for better haha
No 1 rule in surfing.
Learned that the hard way down south.
Messy at Burleigh this morning. Snagged 1 goody and the rest was meh. Always better than not going tho.
Greenmount cam right now is fucking mental
Still just looking like a 2-3ft short period trade swell on the MNC at the moment. Looking forward to watch the swell develop, pity the winds down here are looking ordinary.
Travel Time...Swell is coming
https://zoom.earth/storms/gabrielle-2023/
Insane arvo sesh. Perfect 3-4 blue barrels but nuclear crowd. 4 waves per hour and jelly arms now. Definitely building
Why would anyone look at that crowd and decide to paddle out........
Not at Greeny Burlz. Further south
Ahhhhhh. gotcha
I’m a sucker for punishment , hit snapper about 1.30 qld time , was having a good session , short rides but happy to get a couple of wide set waves , then the rot set in , just couldn’t get a wave unless I dropped in and its not in me , different generation I guess . Bobbed around in the lineup just getting angry and frustrated. Ended up just watching, some guys were absolutely ripping the 2-3 ft barrels apart, really good surfing. I’m done for awhile now, can’t see myself paddling back out into the madness . I had been surfing a left right peak to myself for 3 days before this swell, it may have been a bit gutless but it left me in a better state of mind mentally .
These days people fly in from other countries when there's a swell! Even a moderate one. The concept of a strike mission is pretty toxic unless you're chasing the world's biggest waves IMO. Swell events are never great for surfing, even if you jag a couple of good ones. Bali was actually an exception because the most uncrowded days there were the biggest. The best are the days before/after the swell. I look forward to the 3-4 ft days during the week that are unattended where I am (central America). I rarely get hyped for a swell knowing that when I paddle out before sunlight, they'll already be a few out. Grateful for that though compared to the Oz points.
The surfing standard on the greenmount cam was very high…..those guys who didn’t get burned tore the bag out of it
That inner section of greenmount is munching takeoffs like the cookie monster
Classic moment on the greeny replay, 3.37pm replay, 1min 8 sec in.
Goofy drops in on a natural so they are facing each other.
The natural pushes him in the chest off his board, stands tall and waves his arm at him then gets a little cover up.
I've moved up here to the cooly area and i couldn't see myself paddling out there today because the circus crowd was insane great waves but I'll just be patient my time will come. I bet some would have got a few, but I think frustration would be the order of the day for the masses.
Moved to Cooly? You need to change your name to Justoneplease.
First time surfing snapper through to Kira today. Just moved to bris for work from the Sunshine Coast. Surfed from 2-7 and it’s definitely pretty mental. Crazy crowd, crazy level of surfing but crazy burns, way worse than anything I’ve experienced in my years at Noosa. waves were fun and got one tube through greenmount, but felt much harder to get a wave than surfing pot / behind the rock at tea tree.
Good to experience it at its most circus like for the first go. Hopefully up from here
Did the experience put you off?
I’ll be back
I’ll be back
There's at least an extra 2-300 shredders in Coolie because of tweed coast pro- which adds an extra layer of "combat" to it.
Prob 3 family members with each of the juniors as well!
Are the cams not working around GC. Alley and others keep freezing, same yesterday too.
Unfortunately, a couple of cams are streaming poorly due to networking issues. Will be resolved later this week (NBN are booked in but couldn't get in earlier). Sorry for the inconvenience.
On that subject Ben, how come the Noosa cam wobbles intermittently, even on light wind days? Is it because it's zoomed in so far?
This has bugged me for aaaages!
Saw some decent sets at Narrowneck.... 4-5ft+ or so.
Then this one stood up outside. Anyone want to put a size on it? (only been watching the cam for a few mins too, could be bigger). It's gotta be well north of 6ft+.
That's a solid bomb! C'mon, you should know better than to get all numbery. Let's just keep it at 6'+' because anything else is unspeakable. Although the size of the East Swell impacting the East facing beach might get closer to the real figure...
Even Hawaiians have moved on from these games! Haha.
Gotta respect convention tho, lest we be kooks.
Just for reference - the barometer at Norfolk Island (which saw a direct crossing overnight) dropped to 958.6hPa, at which time winds went calm for a little over an hour.
Gusts either side were very strong but not spectacular... the TC Gabrielle must have been weakening rapidly at that point. Windiest period was between about 1pm and 5pm, max gusts of 55kts (102km/hr).
devil wind from coffs to goldy
Shame!
Very solid sets this morning. Shame about the wind.
Fuck all wind at Burleigh this morning. Solid sets with the occasional bombs every 10/15 mins. Not many out but the sweep off the point was vicious. Lots of people surfing Rocky’s now.
Huh? I surfed it. The NW was into it at dawn.
Garbage, there was no wind at dawn. I was there at 4.30…no wind effect at all.
as soon as the sun rose the NW did too. The only one speaking garbage is you. Did you surf?
Nope, I gave it 1 shot and got into that sweep and my paddle ability/strength was not up to it. I then got a coffee and sat up on the point and watched the show. Was an enjoyable morning.
Of course you surfed it, burl’s. I am sure you wouldn’t make anything up..porkies just ain’t your thing. :)
I paddled out at 5:30 devil wind into it with big lumps up the face. It might have looked clean from the whitewash where you were but it wasn't.
Look at any cam replay from dawn toady. Everywhere on the goldy was NW. Anyone with half a brain would know that's a devil wind for burleigh
Starting to think you two might be the one person with multiple personality disorder, Fight Club style.
Hahaha
Gold
Astute!
Haha!
Solid 6ft+ sets here but v. hard to find a go out.
Yeh man, i wasn't expecting much, had a little look around and didn't bother.
Shouldn't be surprised really, anytime we get a swell north of 5ft from the east quandrant it just hates it.
BIG waves coming through sharpes before.
Wish we had some reefs around here
The morning low tide doesn’t help with paddling out anywhere
Couple of spots holding but you'll be lucky and v. strong paddler to get out to them.
Waited for mid tide, paddled from a corner and actually got out really easy.
Open beach, I’d call 4-6, solid but not super powerful and heavy.
The bar looked pretty big though.
Everyone head to the Pass, only place that looks smooth, thanks to the HD cams.
“Thanks to the cams….” .yeah that’s the reason the pass is crowded….the cams….
you driving from a Sydney for a surf lol
the place is cooked cams or no cams
bit of onshore and its reduced the crowd to around a dozen people out at greenmount. still looks fun.
was so much fun out at snapper. Handful of people on it and reverse sweep making it a breeze
Nice & clean here on sunny coast but opens well above my pay grade, solid but straight from what I seen some corners for the keen
def 6ft out front this morning. Thankful the wind was friendly on the sc. Classic morning.
Southerly came through a day early on the MNC.
Oh Dear how sad...........
Not
Surfed noosa on the log, probably got eight leg burners before the wind hammered it and drove the 200km back to the gc.
How's this morning's winds:
NW on the Sunshine Coast
S/SW at North West 10 Beacon (just offshore from Bribie)
W/NW at Cape Moreton
E/NE on the Gold Coast
E/NE at Byron Bay
S'ly at Evans Head
S'ly at Yamba
SW at Coffs Harbour
Terrible at Burleigh this morning…just a mess. Coffee was over extracted and very average.
"Significant heavy rain. Severe gale southeasterlies with damaging wind gusts of 120 km/h."
Auckland's weather outlook for today. Stay safe, eh?
Just finished my shift.
- half of Northland's power network down. Worst since Cyclone Bola.
- 300mm in places, with much more to come.
- 70-80kt gusts in many east coast places
- 70g90kt at Colville Channel (between Coromandel and Great Barrier Island).
But sunny and beautiful in much of the South Island.
Heavy, was wondering how it was going over there!
And winds will only get stronger.
Pass was very good yesty morn. I heard there was a bit of a bump early , I surfed from 9:30, paddling out from bullies and wategoes, the latter was the go due to the sweep, sat about 100-150 Mtrs ne of the rock and got chip ins across the front of the rock and then into the bank. Got some good ones , saw one lad make a crazy long pit. Saturday was pretty good too. Low crowds at the start of the wave on both days, due to sweep, of course very busy down the line .
Pic from yesterday and another from this morning.
Wow, that's an incredible image!
Bottom photo is nuts!
Anyone missing the front half of a Joel Beck board?
Some Blatant Burnings going down on the Pass cam...
Noosa looks ok...have been watching the cam...looks fun on a big board...filling in now tho
Thankyou
Westofthelake!