South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 27th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small surf Mon-Wed with light morning winds and freshening N’lies favouring backbeaches
• S’ly change likely to reach Mid North Coast Tues before stalling
• Small boost in tradewind swell Thurs/ extending into Fri with winds tending S-SSE
• Fun E swell this weekend, peaking Sun with SE swell added in
• Tropical depression or TC now likely to drift quickly SE through swell window and not produce any major size

Recap

Plenty of fun waves over the weekend with Sat seeing mostly 3ft surf (a few 4ft sets reported from Tweed and Clarence coasts) and light land breezes early tending variable then SE’ly. Sunday was just a half notch smaller, in the 2-3ft range with light morning winds and a’noon NE’ly winds which kicked up late. An E/SE swell pulse came in on f/cast for the Tweed-Ballina stretch with 3ft sets but was underwhelming elsewhere. Today has seen a  window of clean conditions with 2-3ft surf from the E/SE-E (3ft sets Ballina-Tweed) before N’lies have kicked up from mid-morning.

Clean-ish beachy options this morning if you could find a decent bank

This week (Feb 27-Mar3)

We’ve got a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea- with a stalled trough near the lower end of the Mid North Coast and a very active monsoon trough across Northern Australia and extending into the Coral Sea and near South Pacific. The troughy pattern will see rapid fire wind changes across temperate NSW this week and while all eyes are on the tropics it’s looking like a continuing tease with an expected tropical depression or TC moving quite quickly SE through the swell window with limited surf potential. Let’s drill down.

In the short run and a S’ly change rapidly runs out of steam likely just around Port Macquarie with early light NW winds tending light NE through the a’noon (variable around the Mid North Coast). A small mixed bag of SE and E swells will be on offer with a few 2-3ft sets early with an easing trend seeing surf in the 2ft range or less through the day.

First day of Autumn begins with N’lies, lighter NNW inshore early before tending mod/fresh though the day. Not much size on offer with a mix of small E swells, mostly from the tradewind belt in the 2ft range at backbeaches. 

Minor surf continues into Thurs, with a slight increase in E swell related to an increase in tradewinds SE of New Caledonia early this this. Expect surf below 2ft to creep back into the 2ft+ range during the a’noon. A S’ly change will be on it’s way north during Thurs, likely reaching the Mid North Coast early morning, Ballina-Byron mid-late morning and the border later in the a’noon. It may stall around the border leading to variable winds through the a’noon in SEQLD. Possibly worth working around for some small beachbreaks.

Mediocrity continues into Friday with a small mixed bag of easing S-SE swell, and a small amount of filtered E/NE swell from the Coral Sea tradewind belt in the 2-3ft range. We should see clean conditions early with a widespread morning land breeze before winds kick in from the S-SE as a new high pressure ridge starts to fill in up the sub-tropical coast.

This weekend (Mar 4-5)

A large high slowly tracks past Tasmania this weekend, setting up a firm ridge along the sub-tropical East coast with fresh SSE-SE winds Sat and Sun. Remnants of the trough drift towards the North Island and increase windspeeds along the top of the high.

Tropical developments have been downgraded as a tropical depression near Vanuatu this week, possibly followed by a second system, remain discrete systems and track SE rapidly through the swell window. We’ll monitor for any signs of slowing or stalling which would enhance swell production but at this stage it looks like they will be whisked off to the graveyard (behind New Zealand) without any major swell production.

No great size expected Sat with more of the same small mixed bag in the 2-3ft range expected. We should see a little kick in the a’noon to 3ft as SE swell from the fetch through the Northern Tasman boosts wave heights. 

We should see more consistent 3ft+ sets Sun as mid period E’ly energy peaks, along with some short range ESE swell as the dominant high builds SE’ly winds through the Tasman. With continuing SSE-SE winds the best options will be protected from the wind. A few traces of long period S swell will be in the mix from a passing front and deep low- unlikely to show apart from reliable S swell magnets which will be onshore.

Next week (Mar6 onwards)

Not much to get frothy about next week. Swell from the E eases back as tropical depressions (or TC) slip behind New Zealand.

Ergo, our small mixed bag continues into next week, with Mon seeing more small trade swell, ESE swell, easing S and possibly a small amount of NE windswell  on the Mid North Coast as N to NE winds start to kick up on Mon. Size will top out around 3ft, with an easing trend in place through the day.

Nothing to get excited about through the early part of next week with easing surf, and N’ly winds. Expect size to drop back to 2ft or less Tues and extend at that size into Wed and possibly Thurs.

Lots of model divergence between major models through mid next week with GFS suggesting a trough stalling on the Mid North Coast, with a mid-latitude low near Tasmania and continuing N’ly winds and small NE windswell.

EC suggests S’ly flow later next week and a sizeable low moving into the lower Tasman through the same period and S swell on the menu for later next week and the weekend.

We’ll keep tabs on the tropics but the focus of any low pressure development now looks to be WA or into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

We’ll flag those possibilities for now and check back Wed to see how it’s shaping up.

See ya then.